Robust inference strategy in the presence of measurement error

In this paper, we consider a statistical model where samples are subject to measurement errors. Further, we propose a shrinkage estimation strategy by using the maximum empirical likelihood estimator (MELE) as the base estimator. Our asymptotic results clearly demonstrate the superiority of our proposed shrinkage strategy over the MELE. Monte Carlo simulation results show that such a performance still holds in finite samples. We apply our method to real data set.     

Robust Model Averaging Method Based on LOF Algorithm

Model averaging is a good alternative to model selection, which can deal with the uncertainty from model selection process and make full use of the information from various candidate models. However, most of the existing model averaging criteria do not consider the influence of outliers on the estimation procedures. The purpose of this paper is to develop a robust model averaging approach based on the local outlier factor (LOF) algorithm which can downweight the outliers in the covariates. Asymptotic optimality of the proposed robust model averaging estimator is derived under some regularity conditions. Further, we prove the consistency of the LOF-based weight estimator tending to the theoretically optimal weight vector. Numerical studies including Monte Carlo simulations and a real data example are provided to illustrate our proposed methodology.     

A smoothing stochastic algorithm for quantile estimation

In this paper, we provide the almost-sure convergence and the asymptotic normality of a smooth version of the Robbins–Monro algorithm for the quantile estimation. A Monte Carlo simulation study shows that our proposed method works well within the framework of a data stream.     

Rare Events in Random Geometric Graphs

This work introduces and compares approaches for estimating rare-event probabilities related to the number of edges in the random geometric graph on a Poisson point process. In the one-dimensional setting, we derive closed-form expressions for a variety of conditional probabilities related to the number of edges in the random geometric graph and develop conditional Monte Carlo algorithms for estimating rare-event probabilities on this basis. We prove rigorously a reduction in variance when compared to the crude Monte Carlo estimators and illustrate the magnitude of the improvements in a simulation study. In higher dimensions, we use conditional Monte Carlo to remove the fluctuations in the estimator coming from the randomness in the Poisson number of nodes. Finally, building on conceptual insights from large-deviations theory, we illustrate that importance sampling using a Gibbsian point process can further substantially reduce the estimation variance.

     

Bayesian cylindrical data modeling using Abe–Ley mixtures

This paper proposes a Metropolis–Hastings algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, to estimate the parameters of the Abe–Ley distribution, which is a recently proposed Weibull-Sine-Skewed-von Mises mixture model, for bivariate circular-linear data. Current literature estimates the parameters of these mixture models using the expectation-maximization method, but we will show that this exhibits a few shortcomings for the considered mixture model. First, standard expectation-maximization does not guarantee convergence to a global optimum, because the likelihood is multi-modal, which results from the high dimensionality of the mixture’s likelihood. Second, given that expectation-maximization provides point estimates of the parameters only, the uncertainties of the estimates (e.g., confidence intervals) are not directly available in these methods. Hence, extra calculations are needed to quantify such uncertainty. We propose a Metropolis–Hastings based algorithm that avoids both shortcomings of expectation-maximization. Indeed, Metropolis–Hastings provides an approximation to the complete (posterior) distribution, given that it samples from the joint posterior of the mixture parameters. This facilitates direct inference (e.g., about uncertainty, multi-modality) from the estimation. In developing the algorithm, we tackle various challenges including convergence speed, label switching and selecting the optimum number of mixture components. We then (i) verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm on sample datasets with known true parameters, and further (ii) validate our methodology on an environmental dataset (a traditional application domain of Abe–Ley mixtures where measurements are function of direction). Finally, we (iii) demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in an application domain where the circular measurement is periodic in time.     

不同损失下Lomax分布形状参数的Bayes估计

本文研究了两参数Lomax分布形状参数的Bayes估计问题.当尺度参数已知时,给出了在几种不同损失函数下形状参数的Bayes估计表达式,并运用随机模拟方法对各个估计进行了比较.     

Halpern- and Mann-Type Algorithms for Fixed Points and Inclusion Problems on Hadamard Manifolds

In this article, we consider an inclusion problem which is defined by means of a sum of a single-valued vector field and a set-valued vector field defined on a Hadamard manifold. We propose Halpern-type and Mann-type algorithms for finding a common point of the set of fixed points of a nonexpansive mapping and the set of solutions of the inclusion problem defined on a Hadamard manifold. Some particular cases of our problem and algorithm are also discussed. We study the convergence of the proposed algorithm to a common point of the set of fixed points of a nonexpansive mapping and the set of solutions of the inclusion problem defined on a Hadamard manifold. As applications of our results and algorithms, we derive the solution methods and their convergence results for the optimization problems, variational inequality problems and equilibrium problems in the setting of Hadamard manifolds.     

Inequality constrained ridge regression estimator

We carry out the idea of inequality constrained least squares (ICLS) estimation of Liew (1976) to the inequality constrained ridge regression (ICRR) estimation. We propose ICRR estimator by reducing the primal–dual relation to the fundamental problem of Dantzig and Cottle, 1967, Cottle and Dantzig, 1974 with Lemke (1962) algorithm. Furthermore, we conduct a Monte Carlo experiment.     

两参数指数-威布尔分布形状参数的经验贝叶斯估计

研究了两参数指数-威布尔分布形状参数的经验贝叶斯(EB)估计问题,并假定当其中一个形状参数α已知时,给出了另一个形状参数θ在两种不同损失函数情况下的EB估计的表达式.并运用随机模拟方法,将两种不同损失函数下的EB估计进行了比较.     

Implementations of the Monte Carlo EM Algorithm

The Monte Carlo EM (MCEM) algorithm is a modification of the EM algorithm where the expectation in the E-step is computed numerically through Monte Carlo simulations. The most exible and generally applicable approach to obtaining a Monte Carlo sample in each iteration of an MCEM algorithm is through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) routines such as the Gibbs and Metropolis–Hastings samplers. Although MCMC estimation presents a tractable solution to problems where the E-step is not available in closed form, two issues arise when implementing this MCEM routine: (1) how do we minimize the computational cost in obtaining an MCMC sample? and (2) how do we choose the Monte Carlo sample size? We address the first question through an application of importance sampling whereby samples drawn during previous EM iterations are recycled rather than running an MCMC sampler each MCEM iteration. The second question is addressed through an application of regenerative simulation. We obtain approximate independent and identical samples by subsampling the generated MCMC sample during different renewal periods. Standard central limit theorems may thus be used to gauge Monte Carlo error. In particular, we apply an automated rule for increasing the Monte Carlo sample size when the Monte Carlo error overwhelms the EM estimate at any given iteration. We illustrate our MCEM algorithm through analyses of two datasets fit by generalized linear mixed models. As a part of these applications, we demonstrate the improvement in computational cost and efficiency of our routine over alternative MCEM strategies.     

On the Monte Carlo simulation of BSDEs: An improvement on the Malliavin weights

We propose a generic framework for the analysis of Monte Carlo simulation schemes of backward SDEs. The general results are used to re-visit the convergence of the algorithm suggested by Bouchard and Touzi (2004) [6]. By keeping the higher order terms in the expansion of the Skorohod integrals resulting from the Malliavin integration by parts in [6], we introduce a variant of the latter algorithm which allows for a significant reduction of the numerical complexity. We prove the convergence of this improved Malliavin-based algorithm, and derive a bound on the induced error. In particular, we show that the price to pay for our simplification is to use a more accurate localizing function.     

The Subgradient Extragradient Method for Solving Variational Inequalities in Hilbert Space

We present a subgradient extragradient method for solving variational inequalities in Hilbert space. In addition, we propose a modified version of our algorithm that finds a solution of a variational inequality which is also a fixed point of a given nonexpansive mapping. We establish weak convergence theorems for both algorithms.     

Composite quantile regression estimation for P-GARCH processes

We consider the periodic generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(P-GARCH) process and propose a robust estimator by composite quantile regression. We study some useful properties about the P-GARCH model. Under some mild conditions, we establish the asymptotic results of proposed estimator.The Monte Carlo simulation is presented to assess the performance of proposed estimator. Numerical study results show that our proposed estimation outperforms other existing methods for heavy tailed distributions.The proposed methodology is also illustrated by Va R on stock price data.     

A hybrid proximal point algorithm for finding minimizers and fixed points in CAT(0) spaces

We introduce a hybrid proximal point algorithm and establish its strong convergence to a common solution of a proximal point of a lower semi-continuous mapping and a fixed point of a demicontractive mapping in the framework of a CAT(0) space. As applications of our new result, we solve variational inequality problems for these mappings on a Hilbert space. Illustrative example is given to validate theoretical result obtained herein.     

Estimating spot volatility in the presence of infinite variation jumps

We propose a kernel estimator for the spot volatility of a semi-martingale at a given time point by using high frequency data, where the underlying process accommodates a jump part of infinite variation. The estimator is based on the representation of the characteristic function of Lévy processes. The consistency of the proposed estimator is established under some mild assumptions. By assuming that the jump part of the underlying process behaves like a symmetric stable Lévy process around 0, we establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. In particular, with a specific kernel function, the estimator is variance efficient. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to assess our theoretical results and compare our estimator with existing ones.     

Generalized Nonparametric Mixed Effects Models

Generalized linear mixed effects models (GLMM) provide useful tools for correlated and/or over-dispersed non-Gaussian data. This article considers generalized nonparametric mixed effects models (GNMM), which relax the rigid linear assumption on the conditional predictor in a GLMM. We use smoothing splines to model fixed effects. The random effects are general and may also contain stochastic processes corresponding to smoothing splines. We show how to construct smoothing spline ANOVA (SS ANOVA) decompositions for the predictor function. Components in a SS ANOVA decomposition have nice interpretations as main effects and interactions. Experimental design considerations help determine which components are fixed or random. We estimate all parameters and spline functions using stochastic approximation with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). As iteration increases we increase the MCMC sample size and decrease the step-size of the parameter update. This approach guarantees convergence of the estimates to the expected fixed points. We evaluate our methods through a simulation study.     

Monte Carlo Integration With Acceptance-Rejection

This article considers Monte Carlo integration under rejection sampling or Metropolis-Hastings sampling. Each algorithm involves accepting or rejecting observations from proposal distributions other than a target distribution. While taking a likelihood approach, we basically treat the sampling scheme as a random design, and define a stratified estimator of the baseline measure. We establish that the likelihood estimator has no greater asymptotic variance than the crude Monte Carlo estimator under rejection sampling or independence Metropolis-Hastings sampling. We employ a subsampling technique to reduce the computational cost, and illustrate with three examples the computational effectiveness of the likelihood method under general Metropolis-Hastings sampling.     

定数截尾混合指数分布在恒加应力下的MCEM加速算法

应用Monte Carlo EM加速算法给出了混合指数分布在恒加应力水平下,在定数截尾场合的参数估计问题,并通过模拟试验说明利用Monte Carlo EM加速算法来估计混合指数分布比EM算法更有效,收敛速度更快.     

Hybrid methods with regularization for minimization problems and asymptotically strict pseudocontractive mappings in the intermediate sense

In this paper we introduce an iterative algorithm for finding a common element of the fixed point set of an asymptotically strict pseudocontractive mapping S in the intermediate sense and the solution set of the minimization problem (MP) for a convex and continuously Frechet differentiable functional in Hilbert space. The iterative algorithm is based on several well-known methods including the extragradient method, CQ method, Mann-type iterative method and hybrid gradient projection algorithm with regularization. We obtain a strong convergence theorem for three sequences generated by our iterative algorithm. In addition, we also prove a new weak convergence theorem by a modified extragradient method with regularization for the MP and the mapping S.     

A sharp first order analysis of Feynman–Kac particle models,Part II: Particle Gibbs samplers

This article provides a new theory for the analysis of the particle Gibbs (PG) sampler (Andrieu et al., 2010). Following the work of Del Moral and Jasra (2017) we provide some analysis of the particle Gibbs sampler, giving first order expansions of the kernel and minorization estimates. In addition, first order propagation of chaos estimates are derived for empirical measures of the dual particle model with a frozen path, also known as the conditional sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) update of the PG sampler. Backward and forward PG samplers are discussed, including a first comparison of the contraction estimates obtained by first order estimates. We illustrate our results with an example of fixed parameter estimation arising in hidden Markov models.