On expected utility for financial insurance portfolios with stochastic dependencies

The effect of background risks as human capital, market risks and catastrophic events has been considered in the literature in different contexts. In this note, we consider financial insurance portfolios with insurable risks and one background risk (uninsurable financial asset), such that the random losses and the background risk depend on environmental parameters. We study how dependencies between the risks influence the expected utility of the portfolio’s wealth distribution under risk aversion, when the environmental parameters are random. Stochastic bounds for the expected wealth are given from modeling the dependence between the parameters by different notions. Similar results are given for multivariate portfolios with n groups and multivariate risk aversion, besides an expected utility comparison result for the minimum and the total portfolio’s wealth.     

Asymptotics of random contractions

In this paper we discuss the asymptotic behaviour of random contractions X=RS, where R, with distribution function F, is a positive random variable independent of S∈(0,1). Random contractions appear naturally in insurance and finance. Our principal contribution is the derivation of the tail asymptotics of X assuming that F is in the max-domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution and the distribution function of S satisfies a regular variation property. We apply our result to derive the asymptotics of the probability of ruin for a particular discrete-time risk model. Further we quantify in our asymptotic setting the effect of the random scaling on the Conditional Tail Expectations, risk aggregation, and derive the joint asymptotic distribution of linear combinations of random contractions.     

As simple as possible but not simpler in Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding: the robust-stochastic level dependent Choquet integral approach

The level dependent Choquet integral has been proposed to handle decision making problems in which the importance and the interaction of criteria may depend on the level of the alternatives’ evaluations. This integral is based on a level dependent capacity, which is a family of single capacities associated to each level of evaluation for the considered criteria. We present two possible formulations of the level dependent capacity where importance and interaction of criteria are constant inside each one of the subintervals in which the interval of evaluations for considered criteria is split or vary with continuity inside the whole interval of evaluations. Since, in general, there is not only one but many level dependent capacities compatible with the preference information provided by the Decision Maker, we propose to take into account all of them by using the Robust Ordinal Regression (ROR) and the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA). On one hand, ROR defines a necessary preference relation (if an alternative a is at least as good as an alternative b for all compatible level dependent capacities), and a possible preference relation (if a is at least as good as b for at least one compatible level dependent capacity). On the other hand, considering a random sampling of compatible level dependent capacities, SMAA gives the probability that each alternative reaches a certain ranking position as well as the probability that an alternative is preferred to another. A real-world decision problem on rankings of universities is provided to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

Expected utility for nonstochastic risk

Stochastic random phenomena considered in von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theory constitute only a part of all possible random phenomena (Kolmogorov, 1986). We show that any sequence of observed consequences generates a corresponding sequence of frequency distributions, which in general does not have a single limit point but a non-empty closed limit set in the space of finitely additive probabilities. This approach to randomness allows to generalize the expected utility theory in order to cover decision problems under nonstochastic random events. We derive the maxmin expected utility representation for preferences over closed sets of probability measures. The derivation is based on the axiom of preference for stochastic risk, i.e. the decision maker wishes to reduce a set of probability distributions to a single one. This complements Gilboa and Schmeidler’s (1989) consideration of the maxmin expected utility rule with objective treatment of multiple priors.     

Discounting axioms imply risk neutrality

Although most applications of discounting occur in risky settings, the best-known axiomatic justifications are deterministic. This paper provides an axiomatic rationale for discounting in a stochastic framework. Consider a representation of time and risk preferences with a binary relation on a real vector space of vector-valued discrete-time stochastic processes on a probability space. Four axioms imply that there are unique discount factors such that preferences among stochastic processes correspond to preferences among present value random vectors. The familiar axioms are weak ordering, continuity and nontriviality. The fourth axiom, decomposition, is non-standard and key. These axioms and the converse of decomposition are assumed in previous axiomatic justifications for discounting with nonlinear intraperiod utility functions in deterministic frameworks. Thus, the results here provide the weakest known sufficient conditions for discounting in deterministic or stochastic settings. In addition to the four axioms, if there exists a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function corresponding to the binary relation, then that function is risk neutral (i.e., affine). In this sense, discounting axioms imply risk neutrality.     

On the smallest eigenvalue of the Stokes operator in a domain with fine-grained random boundary

This article deals with a problem arising in localization of the principal eigenvalue (PE) of the Stokes operator under the Dirichlet condition on the fine-grained random boundary of a domain contained in a cube of size t ? 1. The random microstructure is assumed identically distributed in distinct unit cubic cells and, in essence, independent. In this setting, the asymptotic behavior of the PE as t → ∞ is deterministic: it proves possible to find nonrandom upper and lower bounds on the PE which apply with probability that converges to 1. It was proved earlier that in two dimensions the nonrandom unilateral bounds on the PE can be chosen asymptotically equivalent, which implies the convergence in probability to a nonrandom limit of the appropriately normalized PE. The present article extends this result to higher dimensions.     

Combined analysis of unique and repetitive events in quantitative risk assessment

For risk assessment to be a relevant tool in the study of any type of system or activity, it needs to be based on a framework that allows for jointly analyzing both unique and repetitive events. Separately, unique events may be handled by predictive probability assignments on the events, and repetitive events with unknown/uncertain frequencies are typically handled by the probability of frequency (or Bayesian) approach. Regardless of the nature of the events involved, there may be a problem with imprecision in the probability assignments. Several uncertainty representations with the interpretation of lower and upper probability have been developed for reflecting such imprecision. In particular, several methods exist for jointly propagating precise and imprecise probabilistic input in the probability of frequency setting. In the present position paper we outline a framework for the combined analysis of unique and repetitive events in quantitative risk assessment using both precise and imprecise probability. In particular, we extend an existing method for jointly propagating probabilistic and possibilistic input by relaxing the assumption that all events involved have frequentist probabilities; instead we assume that frequentist probabilities may be introduced for some but not all events involved, i.e. some events are assumed to be unique and require predictive – possibly imprecise – probabilistic assignments, i.e. subjective probability assignments on the unique events without introducing underlying frequentist probabilities for these. A numerical example related to environmental risk assessment of the drilling of an oil well is included to illustrate the application of the resulting method.     

Decomposable processes and continuous products of probability spaces

Sequences of independent random variables and products of probability spaces are just two ways of looking at the same thing. The natural generalization of a sequence of independent random variables is a decomposable process. We introduce a corresponding generalization of a product of probability spaces, which will be called a factored probability space, and study the structure and classification of such systems and their relation to decomposable processes.     

Rare events in the Boussinesq system with fluctuating dynamical boundary conditions

The Boussinesq system models various phenomena in geophysical and climate dynamics. It is a coupled system of the Navier-Stokes equations and the salinity transport equation. Due to uncertainty in salinity flux on fluid boundary, this system is subject to random fluctuations on the boundary. This stochastic Boussinesq system can be transformed into a random dynamical system. Rare events, or small probability events, are investigated in the context of large deviations. A large deviations principle is established via a weak convergence approach based on a recently developed variational representation of functionals of infinite dimensional Brownian motion.     

Formulas for approximating pseudo-Boolean random variables

We consider {0,1}ⁿ as a sample space with a probability measure on it, thus making pseudo-Boolean functions into random variables. We then derive explicit formulas for approximating a pseudo-Boolean random variable by a linear function if the measure is permutation-invariant, and by a function of degree at most k if the measure is a product measure. These formulas generalize results due to Hammer-Holzman and Grabisch-Marichal-Roubens. We also derive a formula for the best faithful linear approximation that extends a result due to Charnes-Golany-Keane-Rousseau concerning generalized Shapley values. We show that a theorem of Hammer-Holzman that states that a pseudo-Boolean function and its best approximation of degree at most k have the same derivatives up to order k does not generalize to this setting for arbitrary probability measures, but does generalize if the probability measure is a product measure.     

On the S-transform over a Banach algebra

The S-transform is shown to satisfy a specific twisted multiplicativity property for free random variables in a B-valued Banach noncommutative probability space, for an arbitrary unital complex Banach algebra B. Also, a new proof of the additivity of the R-transform in this setting is given.     

Chance-constrained programming with fuzzy stochastic coefficients

We consider fuzzy stochastic programming problems with a crisp objective function and linear constraints whose coefficients are fuzzy random variables, in particular of type L-R. To solve this type of problems, we formulate deterministic counterparts of chance-constrained programming with fuzzy stochastic coefficients, by combining constraints on probability of satisfying constraints, as well as their possibility and necessity. We discuss the possible indices for comparing fuzzy quantities by putting together interval orders and statistical preference. We study the convexity of the set of feasible solutions under various assumptions. We also consider the case where fuzzy intervals are viewed as consonant random intervals. The particular cases of type L-R fuzzy Gaussian and discrete random variables are detailed.     

Ordinal regression revisited: Multiple criteria ranking using a set of additive value functions

We present a new method, called UTA^GMS, for multiple criteria ranking of alternatives from set A using a set of additive value functions which result from an ordinal regression. The preference information provided by the decision maker is a set of pairwise comparisons on a subset of alternatives A^R ⊆ A, called reference alternatives. The preference model built via ordinal regression is the set of all additive value functions compatible with the preference information. Using this model, one can define two relations in the set A: the necessary weak preference relation which holds for any two alternatives a, b from set A if and only if for all compatible value functions a is preferred to b, and the possible weak preference relation which holds for this pair if and only if for at least one compatible value function a is preferred to b. These relations establish a necessary and a possible ranking of alternatives from A, being, respectively, a partial preorder and a strongly complete relation. The UTA^GMS method is intended to be used interactively, with an increasing subset A^R and a progressive statement of pairwise comparisons. When no preference information is provided, the necessary weak preference relation is a weak dominance relation, and the possible weak preference relation is a complete relation. Every new pairwise comparison of reference alternatives, for which the dominance relation does not hold, is enriching the necessary relation and it is impoverishing the possible relation, so that they converge with the growth of the preference information. Distinguishing necessary and possible consequences of preference information on the complete set of actions, UTA^GMS answers questions of robustness analysis. Moreover, the method can support the decision maker when his/her preference statements cannot be represented in terms of an additive value function. The method is illustrated by an example solved using the UTA^GMS software. Some extensions of the method are also presented.     

Some results on first passage times in one dimensional random walks

Analytic expressions are presented for the characteristic function of the first passage time distribution for biased random walk on a finite chain (and diffusion with drift on a finite line); of the first passage time distribution for a random walk on a chain, in which the events (jumps) are governed by an arbitrary renewal process; and of the distribution of the time of escape from a bounded set of points in the latter case. A fundamental relation between the first passage time distribution and the conditional probability for random walk (or diffusion) in one dimension is analyzed and generalized.     

Eigenvector method,consistency test and inconsistency repairing for an incomplete fuzzy preference relation

In this paper, we extend the eigenvector method (EM) to priority for an incomplete fuzzy preference relation. We give a reasonable definition of multiplicative consistency for an incomplete fuzzy preference relation. We also give an approach to judge whether an incomplete fuzzy relation is acceptable or not. We develop the acceptable consistency ratio for an incomplete multiplicative fuzzy preference relation, which is simple and similar to Saaty’s consistency ratio (CR) for the multiplicative preference relation. If the incomplete fuzzy preference relation is not of acceptable consistency, we define a criterion to find the unusual and false element (UFE) in the preference relation, and present an algorithm to repair an inconsistent fuzzy preference relation until its consistency is satisfied with the consistency ratio. As a result, our improvement method cannot only satisfy the consistency requirement, but also preserve the initial preference information as much as possible. Finally, an example is illustrated to show that our method is simple, efficiency, and can be performed on computer easily.     

Disentangling price,risk and model risk: V&R measures

We propose a method to assess the intrinsic risk carried by a financial position X when the agent faces uncertainty about the pricing rule assigning its present value. Our approach is inspired by a new interpretation of the quasiconvex duality in a Knightian setting, where a family of probability measures replaces the single reference probability and is then applied to value financial positions. Diametrically, our construction of Value and Risk measures is based on the selection of a basket of claims to test the reliability of models. We compare a random payoff X with a given class of derivatives written on X, and use these derivatives to “test” the pricing measures. We further introduce and study a general class of Value and Risk measures \( R(p,X,\mathbb {P})\) that describes the additional capital that is required to make X acceptable under a probability \(\mathbb {P}\) and given the initial price p paid to acquire X.     

A new approach to stochastic evolution equations with adapted drift

In this paper we develop a new approach to stochastic evolution equations with an unbounded drift A which is dependent on time and the underlying probability space in an adapted way. It is well-known that the semigroup approach to equations with random drift leads to adaptedness problems for the stochastic convolution term. In this paper we give a new representation formula for the stochastic convolution which avoids integration of non-adapted processes. Here we mainly consider the parabolic setting. We establish connections with other solution concepts such as weak solutions. The usual parabolic regularity properties are derived and we show that the new approach can be applied in the study of semilinear problems with random drift. At the end of the paper the results are illustrated with two examples of stochastic heat equations with random drift.     

A new method for ranking fuzzy numbers and its application to group decision making

In this paper, a new method for comparing fuzzy numbers based on a fuzzy probabilistic preference relation is introduced. The ranking order of fuzzy numbers with the weighted confidence level is derived from the pairwise comparison matrix based on 0.5-transitivity of the fuzzy probabilistic preference relation. The main difference between the proposed method and existing ones is that the comparison result between two fuzzy numbers is expressed as a fuzzy set instead of a crisp one. As such, the ranking order of n fuzzy numbers provides more information on the uncertainty level of the comparison. Illustrated by comparative examples, the proposed method overcomes certain unreasonable (due to the violation of the inequality properties) and indiscriminative problems exhibited by some existing methods. More importantly, the proposed method is able to provide decision makers with the probability of making errors when a crisp ranking order is obtained. The proposed method is also able to provide a probability-based explanation for conflicts among the comparison results provided by some existing methods using a proper ranking order, which ensures that ties of alternatives can be broken.     

From U-bounds to isoperimetry with applications to H-type groups

In this paper we study U-bounds in relation to L₁-type coercive inequalities and isoperimetric problems for a class of probability measures on a general metric space (RN,d). We prove the equivalence of an isoperimetric inequality with several other coercive inequalities in this general framework. The usefulness of our approach is illustrated by an application to the setting of H-type groups, and an extension to infinite dimensions.