Empirical Bayesian analysis for traffic intensity:M/M/1 queues with covariates

In this paper, we consider a set of individualM/M/1 queues in which variations in both arrival rates and service rates are partly explained by some covariates representing associated characteristics of individual queues. The random error that takes into account the remaining variation is assumed to follow a gamma distribution. Bayes and empirical Bayes procedures are suggested to make inferences concerning individual traffic intensity parameters that can be applied to several industrial queueing problems.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for single server queues from waiting time data

Maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a GI/G/1 queue are derived based on the information on waiting times {W _t },t=1,...,n, ofn successive customers. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators are established. A simulation study of the M/M/1 and M/E _k /1 queues is presented.     

Computation of the quasi-stationary distributions inM(n)/GI/1/K andGI/M(n)/1/K queues

In this paper, we provide numerical means to compute the quasi-stationary (QS) distributions inM/GI/1/K queues with state-dependent arrivals andGI/M/1/K queues with state-dependent services. These queues are described as finite quasi-birth-death processes by approximating the general distributions in terms of phase-type distributions. Then, we reduce the problem of obtaining the QS distribution to determining the Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue of some Hessenberg matrix. Based on these arguments, we develop a numerical algorithm to compute the QS distributions. The doubly-limiting conditional distribution is also obtained by following this approach. Since the results obtained are free of phase-type representations, they are applicable for general distributions. Finally, numerical examples are given to demonstrate the power of our method.     

A unified algorithm for computing the stationary queue length distributions inM(k)/G/1/N and GI/M(k)/1/N queues

An iterative algorithm is developed for computing numerically the stationary queue length distributions in M/G/1/N queues with arbitrary state-dependent arrivals, or simply M(k)/G/1/N queues. The only input requirement is the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the service time distribution.In addition, the algorithm can also be used to obtain the stationary queue length distributions in GI/M/1/N queues with state-dependent services, orGI/M(k)/1/N, after establishing a relationship between the stationary queue length distributions inGI/M(k)/1/N and M(k)/G/1/N+1 queues.Finally, we elaborate on some of the well studied special cases, such asM/G/1/N queues,M/G/1/N queues with distinct arrival rates (which includes the machine interference problems), andGI/M/C/N queues. The discussions lead to a simplified algorithm for each of the three cases.     

A finite capacity multi-queueing system with priorities and with repeated server vacations

In this paper, we study an M/G/1 multi-queueing system consisting ofM finite capacity queues, at which customers arrive according to independent Poisson processes. The customers require service times according to a queue-dependent general distribution. Each queue has a different priority. The queues are attended by a single server according to their priority and are served in a non-preemptive way. If there are no customers present, the server takes repeated vacations. The length of each vacation is a random variable with a general distribution function. We derive steady state formulas for the queue length distribution and the Laplace transform of the queueing time distribution for each queue.     

The Periodic BMAP/PH/c Queue

In queueing theory, most models are based on time-homogeneous arrival processes and service time distributions. However, in communication networks arrival rates and/or the service capacity usually vary periodically in time. In order to reflect this property accurately, one needs to examine periodic rather than homogeneous queues. In the present paper, the periodic BMAP/PH/c queue is analyzed. This queue has a periodic BMAP arrival process, which is defined in this paper, and phase-type service time distributions. As a Markovian queue, it can be analysed like an (inhomogeneous) Markov jump process. The transient distribution is derived by solving the Kolmogorov forward equations. Furthermore, a stability condition in terms of arrival and service rates is proven and for the case of stability, the asymptotic distribution is given explicitly. This turns out to be a periodic family of probability distributions. It is sketched how to analyze the periodic BMAP/M _t /c queue with periodically varying service rates by the same method.     

Diffusion Approximations for Queues with Markovian Bases

Consider a base family of state-dependent queues whose queue-length process can be formulated by a continuous-time Markov process. In this paper, we develop a piecewise-constant diffusion model for an enlarged family of queues, each of whose members has arrival and service distributions generalized from those of the associated queue in the base. The enlarged family covers many standard queueing systems with finite waiting spaces, finite sources and so on. We provide a unifying explicit expression for the steady-state distribution, which is consistent with the exact result when the arrival and service distributions are those of the base. The model is an extension as well as a refinement of the M/M/s-consistent diffusion model for the GI/G/s queue developed by Kimura [13] where the base was a birth-and-death process. As a typical base, we still focus on birth-and-death processes, but we also consider a class of continuous-time Markov processes with lower-triangular infinitesimal generators.     

Reliability Analysis of the Retrial Queue with Server Breakdowns and Repairs

Retrial queues have been widely used to model many problems arising in telephone switching systems, telecommunication networks, computer networks and computer systems, etc. It is of basic importance to study reliability of retrial queues with server breakdowns and repairs because of limited ability of repairs and heavy influence of the breakdowns on the performance measure of the system. However, so far the repairable retrial queues are analyzed only by queueing theory. In this paper we give a detailed analysis for reliability of retrial queues. By using the supplementary variables method, we obtain the explicit expressions of some main reliability indexes such as the availability, failure frequency and reliability function of the server. In addition, some special queues, for instance, the repairable M/G/1 queue and repairable retrial queue can be derived from our results. These results may be generalized to the repairable multi-server retrial models.     

双指数分布位置参数的经验Bayes估计问题

本文在平方损失下导出了双指数分布位置参数的Bayes估计，利用非参数方法构造了位置参数的经验Bayes(EB)估计．在适当的条件下，获得了EB估计的收敛速度．最后，给出了一个例子说明适合定理条件的先验分布是存在的．     

Smoothed perturbation analysis algorithms for estimating the derivatives of occupancy-related functions in serial queueing networks

We present unbiased Smoothed Perturbation Analysis (SPA) estimators for the derivatives of occupancy-related performance functions in serial networks ofG/G/1 queues with respect to parameters of the distributions of service times at the queues. The sample functions for these performance measures are piecewise constant, and established Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA) methods typically fail to provide unbiased estimators in this case. The performance measures considered in this paper are: the average network occupancy as seen by an arrival, the average occupancy of a specific queue as seen by an arrival to it, the probability that a customer is blocked at a specific queue, and the probability that a customer leaves a queue idle. The SPA estimators derived are quite simple and flexible, and they lend themselves to straightforward analysis. Unlike most of the established SPA algorithms, ours are not based on the comparison of hazard rates, and the proofs of their unbiasedness do not require the boundedness of such hazard rates.Supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant ECS-8801912, by the Office of Naval Research under Contract N00014-87-K-0304, and by NASA under Contract NAG 2-595.     

Bayesian inference using record values from Rayleigh model with application

In this article, based on a set of upper record values from a Rayleigh distribution, Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches have been used to obtain the estimators of the parameter, and some lifetime parameters such as the reliability and hazard functions. Bayes estimators have been developed under symmetric (squared error) and asymmetric (LINEX and general entropy (GE)) loss functions. These estimators are derived using the informative and non-informative prior distributions for σ. We compare the performance of the presented Bayes estimators with known, non-Bayesian, estimators such as the maximum likelihood (ML) and the best linear unbiased (BLU) estimators. We show that Bayes estimators under the asymmetric loss functions are superior to both the ML and BLU estimators. The highest posterior density (HPD) intervals for the Rayleigh parameter and its reliability and hazard functions are presented. Also, Bayesian prediction intervals of the future record values are obtained and discussed. Finally, practical examples using real record values are given to illustrate the application of the results.     

正态-逆Wishart先验下多元线性模型中经验Bayes估计的优良性

在正态-逆Wishart先验下研究了多元线性模型中参数的经验Bayes估计及其优良性问题.当先验分布中含有未知参数时,构造了回归系数矩阵和误差方差矩阵的经验Bayes估计,并在Bayes均方误差(简称BMSE)准则和Bayes均方误差阵(简称BMSEM)准则下,证明了经验Bayes估计优于最小二乘估计.最后,进行了Monte Carlo模拟研究,进一步验证了理论结果.     

On the admissibility of an estimator of a normal mean vector under a linex loss function

For ap-variate normal mean with known variances, the model proposed by Zellner (1986,J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.,81, 446–451) is discussed in a slightly different framework. A generalized Bayes estimate is derived from a three-stage Bayes point of view under the asymmetric loss function, and the admissibility of such estimators is proved.     

逐步增加的Ⅱ型截尾下系统可靠性的Bayes分析及寿命预测

在逐步增加的型截尾模型下,研究部件寿命服从双参数指数分布的冷贮备串联系统可靠性指标的Bayes估计及单样本场合未来观测值的预测问题.在两个参数均未知的情形下,分别在平方损失(SE)、LINEX损失和熵(General Entropy,GE)损失函数下给出两个参数及可靠性指标的Bayes估计,对于超参数的确定,给出一种新的方法;并讨论了单样本场合未来观测值的预测问题,给出预测分布及预测区间;最后利用随机模拟方法进行比较,并对结果进行了讨论.     

Strong approximations for Markovian service networks

Inspired by service systems such as telephone call centers, we develop limit theorems for a large class of stochastic service network models. They are a special family of nonstationary Markov processes where parameters like arrival and service rates, routing topologies for the network, and the number of servers at a given node are all functions of time as well as the current state of the system. Included in our modeling framework are networks of M _t /M _t /n _t queues with abandonment and retrials. The asymptotic limiting regime that we explore for these networks has a natural interpretation of scaling up the number of servers in response to a similar scaling up of the arrival rate for the customers. The individual service rates, however, are not scaled. We employ the theory of strong approximations to obtain functional strong laws of large numbers and functional central limit theorems for these networks. This gives us a tractable set of network fluid and diffusion approximations. A common theme for service network models with features like many servers, priorities, or abandonment is “non-smooth” state dependence that has not been covered systematically by previous work. We prove our central limit theorems in the presence of this non-smoothness by using a new notion of derivative. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Slow Server Problem for Uninformed Customers

In this paper, we analyze systems that can be modelled by M ∨ M ∨ n queues with heterogeneous servers and non informed customers. We solve the balance equations. We present a threshold result for a system with an arbitrary number n of servers, i.e. we show that there is a value of arrival rate below which the slow server should not be used and above which it should be used. The structure of the slow server problem for uninformed costumers is investigated. Results for homogeneous systems are also provided in order to add insight into the structure of the problem.Supported by grants from CAPES, CNPq, FAPESP and FAPERJ.AMS subject classification: 90B22, 60K25, 68M20     

Second derivative estimation using harmonic analysis

Simulation sensitivity analysis is an important problem for simulation practitioners analyzing complex systems. The significance of this problem has resulted in the development of various gradient estimators that can be used to address this issue. Although higher derivative estimators have been discussed concurrently, less attention has been given to assess the efficiency and feasibility of computing such estimators. In this paper, two second derivative estimators are presented. The first estimators, called the HFD estimators, combine harmonic gradient estimators with finite differences second derivative estimators. The resulting hybrid estimators requireO(p) fewer simulation runs to implement compared to the straightforward finite differences approach, wherep is the number of input parameters in the simulation model. The second estimators, called the HA estimators, incorporate harmonic analysis directly, requiring one or two simulation runs to implement, depending on whether a control variate simulation run is made. Expressions for the bias and the variance of the HFD and the HA estimators (with and without variance reduction techniques) are derived. Optimal mean squared error convergence rates are also discussed. In particular, the convergence rates for both these estimators are shown to be the same, though the computational performance of the HFD estimators is better than that for the HA estimators on anM/M/1 queue simulation model. Computational results for the HFD estimators on an (s, S) inventory system simulation model are also included.     

非平衡随机效应模型中方差分量的经验Bayes估计

对非平衡单向分类随机效应模型中方差分量找到了其最小充分统计量,在加权平方损失下导出了其Bayes估计,利用多元密度及其偏导数的核估计方法构造了方差分量的经验Bayes(EB)估计,并导出了其收敛速度.文末用例子说明了符合定理条件的先验分布是存在的.