Error bounds for asymptotic expansions of the distribution of the MLE in a GMANOVA model

Summary In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions for the distribution function and the density function of a linear combination of the MLE in a GMANOVA model, and for the density function of the MLE itself. We also obtain certain error bounds for the asymptotic expansions.     

Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimator for the growth rate for a jump-type CIR process based on continuous time observations

We consider a jump-type Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) process driven by a standard Wiener process and a subordinator, and we study asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for its growth rate. We distinguish three cases: subcritical, critical and supercritical. In the subcritical case we prove weak consistency and asymptotic normality, and, under an additional moment assumption, strong consistency as well. In the supercritical case, we prove strong consistency and mixed normal (but non-normal) asymptotic behavior, while in the critical case, weak consistency and non-standard asymptotic behavior are described. We specialize our results to so-called basic affine jump–diffusions as well. Concerning the asymptotic behavior of the MLE in the supercritical case, we derive a stochastic representation of the limiting mixed normal distribution, where the almost sure limit of an appropriately scaled jump-type supercritical CIR process comes into play. This is a new phenomenon, compared to the critical case, where a diffusion-type critical CIR process plays a role.     

Estimation of change point for switching fractional diffusion processes

We study the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the change point for fractional diffusion processes as the noise intensity tends to zero. It was shown that the rate of convergence here is higher than the rate of convergence of the distribution of the MLE in classical parametric models dealing with independent identically distributed observations with finite and positive Fisher information.     

Who's afraid of reduced-rank parameterizations of multivariate models? Theory and example

Reduced-rank restrictions can add useful parsimony to coefficient matrices of multivariate models, but their use is limited by the daunting complexity of the methods and their theory. The present work takes the easy road, focusing on unifying themes and simplified methods. For Gaussian and non-Gaussian (GLM, GAM, mixed normal, etc.) multivariate models, the present work gives a unified, explicit theory for the general asymptotic (normal) distribution of maximum likelihood estimators (MLE). MLE can be complex and computationally hard, but we show a strong asymptotic equivalence between MLE and a relatively simple minimum (Mahalanobis) distance estimator. The latter method yields particularly simple tests of rank, and we describe its asymptotic behavior in detail. We also examine the method's performance in simulation and via analytical and empirical examples.     

排序集抽样下指数分布的产品可靠度研究

为了提高指数分布产品可靠度的估计效率,研究了基于排序集抽样方法的极大似然估计量(Maximum likelihood estimator,MLE),证明了新MLE具有存在性、唯一性和渐近正态性,并通过排序集样本的Fisher信息得到MLE的渐近方差。针对似然方程没有显式解的问题,利用部分期望法对MLE进行修正,并给出其具体表达式。渐近相对效率和模拟相对效率的研究结果表明:排序集抽样下MLE和修正MLE的估计效率都一致高于简单随机抽样下MLE。最后,将推荐方法应用到转移性肾癌的临床研究中。     

基于混合Ⅱ型删失数据的Weibull模型精确推断和可接受抽样计划(英文)

本文考虑基于混合Ⅱ型删失数据的Weibull模型精确推断和可接受抽样计划.得到威布尔分布未知参数最大似然估计的精确分布以及基于精确分布的置信区间.由于精确分布函数较为复杂,给出未知参数的另外几种置信区间,基于近似方法的置信区间.为了评价本文的方法,给出一些数值模拟的结果.且讨论了可靠性中的可接受抽样计划问题.利用参数最大似然估计的精确分布,给出一个可接受抽样计划的执行程序和数值模拟结果.     

Empirical characteristic function approach to goodness-of-fit tests for the Cauchy distribution with parameters estimated by MLE or EISE

We consider goodness-of-fit tests of the Cauchy distribution based on weighted integrals of the squared distance between the empirical characteristic function of the standardized data and the characteristic function of the standard Cauchy distribution. For standardization of data Gürtler and Henze (2000,Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics,52, 267–286) used the median and the interquartile range. In this paper we use the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and an equivariant integrated squared error estimator (EISE), which minimizes the weighted integral. We derive an explicit form of the asymptotic covariance function of the characteristic function process with parameters estimated by the MLE or the EISE. The eigenvalues of the covariance function are numerically evaluated and the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are obtained by the residue theorem. A simulation study shows that the proposed tests compare well to tests proposed by Gürtler and Henze and more traditional tests based on the empirical distribution function.     

Pareto-Geometric分布

本文提出了一种具有单调失效率的新型寿命分布, 即由Pareto分布和Geometric分布生成的两参数的Pareto-Geometric分布, 研究了该分布的各种性质和参数极大似然估计的存在唯一性, 并应用 EM 算法得到了参数的极大似然估计值和相应的渐近方差、协方差.     

EDGEWORTH EXPANSION AND BOOTSTRAP APPROXIMATION FOR THE STUDENTIZED MLE FROM RANDOMLY CENSORED EXPONENTIAL SAMPLES

In this paper,the author studies the asymptotic accuracies of the one-term Edgeworth expansions and the bootstrap approximation for the studentized MLE from randomly censored exponential population.It is shown that the Edgeworth expansions and the bootstrap approximation are asymptotically close to the exact distribution of the studentized MLE with a rate.     

Asymptotic theory for estimating the parameters of a Lévy process

Summary We consider consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) for parameters of a Lévy process of the discontinuous type. The MLE are based on a single realization of the process on a given interval [0,t]. Depending on properties of the Lévy measure we either consider the MLE corresponding to jumps of size greater than ε and, keepingt fixed, we let ε tend to 0, or we consider the MLE corresponding to the complete information of the realization of the process on [0,t] and lett tend to ∞. The results of this paper improve in both generality and rigor previous asymptotic estimation results for such processes.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for general hidden semi-Markov processes with backward recurrence time dependence

This paper concerns the study of asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the general hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) with backward recurrence time dependence. By transforming the general HSMM into a general hidden Markov model, we prove that under some regularity conditions, the MLE is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. We also provide useful expressions for asymptotic covariance matrices, involving the MLE of the conditional sojourn times and the embedded Markov chain of the hidden semi-Markov chain. Bibliography: 17 titles.     

Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimator for two-step logit models

Two-step logit models are extensions of the ordinary logistic regression model, which are designed for complex ordinal outcomes commonly seen in practice. In this paper, we establish some asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the regression parameter vector under some mild conditions, which include existence of the MLE, convergence rate and asymptotic normality of the MLE. We relax the boundedness condition of the regressors required in most existing theoretical results, and all conditions are easy to verify.     

Ⅰ型区间删失情形下部分线性模型Sieve极大似然估计渐近性质

本文在响应变量的观测值为Ⅰ型区间删失数据的情形下,讨论部分线性模型Ｓｉｅｖｅ极大似然估计的渐近性质．在一定条件下证明了该估计具有强相合性;参数分量的估计具有渐近正态性,并且是渐近有效的;非参数分量估计达到了最优弱收敛速度．     

Kullback-Leibler Information Consistent Estimation for Censored Data

This paper is intended as an investigation of parametric estimation for the randomly right censored data. In parametric estimation, the Kullback-Leibler information is used as a measure of the divergence of a true distribution generating a data relative to a distribution in an assumed parametric model M. When the data is uncensored, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is a consistent estimator of minimizing the Kullback-Leibler information, even if the assumed model M does not contain the true distribution. We call this property minimum Kullback-Leibler information consistency (MKLI-consistency). However, the MLE obtained by maximizing the likelihood function based on the censored data is not MKLI-consistent. As an alternative to the MLE, Oakes (1986, Biometrics, 42, 177–182) proposed an estimator termed approximate maximum likelihood estimator (AMLE) due to its computational advantage and potential for robustness. We show MKLI-consistency and asymptotic normality of the AMLE under the misspecification of the parametric model. In a simulation study, we investigate mean square errors of these two estimators and an estimator which is obtained by treating a jackknife corrected Kaplan-Meier integral as the log-likelihood. On the basis of the simulation results and the asymptotic results, we discuss comparison among these estimators. We also derive information criteria for the MLE and the AMLE under censorship, and which can be used not only for selecting models but also for selecting estimation procedures.     

基于混合Ⅰ型删失数据的威布尔模型精确推断（英文）

威布尔分布是可靠性和寿命测试试验中常用的模型.本文中,我们考虑了基于混合Ⅰ型删失数据的威布尔模型精确推断.我们得到了威布尔分布未知参数最大似然估计的精确分布以及基于精确分布的置信区间.由于精确分布函数较为复杂,我们也给出了未知参数的另外几种置信区间,比如,基于近似方法的置信区间,Bootstrap置信区间.为了评价本文的方法,我们给出了一些数值模拟的结果.     

A bivariate interval censorship model for partnership formation

We consider a statistical problem of estimating a bivariate age distribution of newly formed partnership. The study is motivated by a type of data that consist of uncensored, right-censored, left-censored, interval-censored and missing observations in the coordinates of a bivariate random vector. A model is proposed for formulating such type of data. A feasible algorithm to estimate the generalized MLE (GMLE) of the bivariate distribution function is also proposed. We establish asymptotic properties for the GMLE under a discrete assumption on the underlying distributions and apply the method to the data set.     

Asymptotic properties of the MLE for the autoregressive process coefficients under stationary Gaussian noise

In this paper we study the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of the vector parameter of an autoregressive process of order p with regular stationary Gaussian noise. We prove the large sample asymptotic properties of the MLE under very mild conditions. We do simulations for fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), autoregressive noise (AR(1)) and moving average noise (MA(1)).     

More Higher-Order Efficiency: Concentration Probability

Based on concentration probability of estimators about a true parameter, third-order asymptotic efficiency of the first-order bias-adjusted MLE within the class of first-order bias-adjusted estimators has been well established in a variety of probability models. In this paper we consider the class of second-order bias-adjusted Fisher consistent estimators of a structural parameter vector on the basis of an i.i.d. sample drawn from a curved exponential-type distribution, and study the asymptotic concentration probability, about a true parameter vector, of these estimators up to the fifth-order. In particular, (i) we show that third-order efficient estimators are always fourth-order efficient; (ii) a necessary and sufficient condition for fifth-order efficiency is provided; and finally (iii) the MLE is shown to be fifth-order efficient.     

Design for estimation of the drift parameter in fractional diffusion systems

We consider a controlled linear differential equation which is partially observed with an additive fractional noise. In this setting, we study the asymptotic (for large observation time) design problem of the input and give an efficient estimator of the unknown signal drift parameter. The optimal estimation input is deduced. The consistency, asymptotic normality and convergence of the moments of the MLE are established.     

Maximum likelihood estimation in the context of a sub-ballistic random walk in a parametric random environment

We consider a one-dimensional sub-ballistic random walk evolving in a parametric i.i.d. random environment. We study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter based on a single observation of the path till the time it reaches a distant site. For that purpose, we adapt the method developed in the ballistic case by Comets et al. (2014) and Falconnet et al. (2014). Using a supplementary assumption due to the special nature of the sub-ballistic regime, we prove consistency and asymptotic normality as the distant site tends to infinity. To emphasize the role of the additional assumption, we investigate the Temkin model with unknown support, and it turns out that the MLE is consistent but, unlike the ballistic regime, the Fisher information is infinite. We also explore the numerical performance of our estimation procedure.