Using quantile regression for rate-making

Regression models are popular tools for rate-making in the framework of heterogeneous insurance portfolios; however, the traditional regression methods have some disadvantages particularly their sensitivity to the assumptions which significantly restrict the area of their applications. This paper is devoted to an alternative approach–quantile regression. It is free of some disadvantages of the traditional models. The quality of estimators for the approach described is approximately the same as or sometimes better than that for the traditional regression methods. Moreover, the quantile regression is consistent with the idea of using the distribution quantile for rate-making. This paper provides detailed comparisons between the approaches and it gives the practical example of using the new methodology.     

Composite hierachical linear quantile regression

Multilevel （hierarchical） modeling is a generalization of linear and generalized linear modeling in which regression coefficients are modeled through a model, whose parameters are also estimated from data. Multilevel model fails to fit well typically by the use of the EM algorithm once one of level error variance （like Cauchy distribution） tends to infinity. This paper proposes a composite multilevel to combine the nested structure of multilevel data and the robustness of the composite quantile regression, which greatly improves the efficiency and precision of the estimation. The new approach, which is based on the Gauss-Seidel iteration and takes a full advantage of the composite quantile regression and multilevel models, still works well when the error variance tends to infinity, We show that even the error distribution is normal, the MSE of the estimation of composite multilevel quantile regression models nearly equals to mean regression. When the error distribution is not normal, our method still enjoys great advantages in terms of estimation efficiency.     

Bayesian analysis of quantile regression for censored dynamic panel data

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to analyzing quantile regression models for censored dynamic panel data. We employ a likelihood-based approach using the asymmetric Laplace error distribution and introduce lagged observed responses into the conditional quantile function. We also deal with the initial conditions problem in dynamic panel data models by introducing correlated random effects into the model. For posterior inference, we propose a Gibbs sampling algorithm based on a location-scale mixture representation of the asymmetric Laplace distribution. It is shown that the mixture representation provides fully tractable conditional posterior densities and considerably simplifies existing estimation procedures for quantile regression models. In addition, we explain how the proposed Gibbs sampler can be utilized for the calculation of marginal likelihood and the modal estimation. Our approach is illustrated with real data on medical expenditures.     

Polynomial power-Pareto quantile function models

In this paper we propose a polynomial power-Pareto quantile function model and a Bayesian method for parameters estimation. We also carried out simulation studies and applied our methodology to real data sets empirically. The results show that a quantile function approach to statistical modelling is very flexible due to the properties of quantile functions, and that the combination of a power and a Pareto distribution enables us to model both the main body and the tails of a distribution, even though the mathematical form of the distribution does not exist. Our research also suggests a new approach to studying extreme values based on a whole data set rather than group maximum/minimum or exceedances above/below a proper threshold value.     

Control charts based on randomized quantile residuals

In practice, quality characteristics do not always follow a normal distribution, and quality control processes sometimes generate non‐normal response outcomes, including continuous non‐normal data and discrete count data. Thus, achieving better results in such situations requires a new control chart derived from various types of response variables. This study proposes a procedure for monitoring response variables that uses control charts based on randomized quantile residuals obtained from a fitted regression model. Simulation studies demonstrate the performance of the proposed control charts under various situations. We illustrate the procedure using two real‐data examples, based on normal and negative binomial regression models, respectively. The simulation and real‐data results support our proposed procedure.     

Multi-stage nested classification credibility quantile regression model

In insurance (or in finance) practice, in a regression setting, there are cases where the error distribution is not normal and other cases where the set of data is contaminated due to outlier events. In such cases the classical credibility regression models lead to an unsatisfactory behavior of credibility estimators, and it is more appropriate to use quantile regression instead of the ordinary least squares estimation. However, these quantile credibility models cannot perform effectively when the set of data has nested (hierarchical) structure. This paper develops credibility models for regression quantiles with nested classification as an alternative to Norberg’s (1986) approach of random coefficient regression model with multi-stage nested classification. This paper illustrates two types of applications, one with insurance data and one with Fama/French financial data.     

Analyzing return asymmetry and quantiles through stochastic volatility models using asymmetric Laplace error via uniform scale mixtures

This paper proposes a new approach to analyze stock return asymmetry and quantiles. We also present a new scale mixture of uniform (SMU) representation for the asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD). The use of the SMU for a probability distribution is a data augmentation technique that simplifies the Gibbs sampler of the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. We consider a stochastic volatility (SV) model with an ALD error distribution. With the SMU representation, the full conditional distribution for some parameters is shown to have closed form. It is also known that the ALD can be used to obtain the coefficients of quantile regression models. This paper also considers a quantile SV model by fixing the skew parameter of the ALD at specific quantile level. Simulation study shows that the proposed methodology works well in both SV and quantile SV models using Bayesian approach. In the empirical study, we analyze index returns of the stock markets in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, Thailand, and the UK and study the effect of S&P 500 on these returns. The results show the significant return asymmetry in some markets and the influence by S&P 500 in all markets at all quantile levels. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pyramid Quantile Regression

We describe a Bayesian model for simultaneous linear quantile regression at several specified quantile levels. More specifically, we propose to model the conditional distributions by using random probability measures, known as quantile pyramids, introduced by Hjort and Walker. Unlike many existing approaches, this framework allows us to specify meaningful priors on the conditional distributions, while retaining the flexibility afforded by the nonparametric error distribution formulation. Simulation studies demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed approach in estimating diverse scenarios, generally outperforming other competitive methods. We also provide conditions for posterior consistency. The method is particularly promising for modeling the extremal quantiles. Applications to extreme value analysis and in higher dimensions are also explored through data examples. Supplemental material for this article is available online.     

Robust statistical modeling using the Birnbaum‐Saunders‐t distribution applied to insurance

In this paper, we carry out robust modeling and influence diagnostics in Birnbaum‐Saunders (BS) regression models. Specifically, we present some aspects related to BS and log‐BS distributions and their generalizations from the Student‐t distribution, and develop BS‐t regression models, including maximum likelihood estimation based on the EM algorithm and diagnostic tools. In addition, we apply the obtained results to real data from insurance, which shows the uses of the proposed model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Randomized Quantile Residuals

Abstract

In this article we give a general definition of residuals for regression models with independent responses. Our definition produces residuals that are exactly normal, apart from sampling variability in the estimated parameters, by inverting the fitted distribution function for each response value and finding the equivalent standard normal quantile. Our definition includes some randomization to achieve continuous residuals when the response variable is discrete. Quantile residuals are easily computed in computer packages such as SAS, S-Plus, GLIM, or LispStat, and allow residual analyses to be carried out in many commonly occurring situations in which the customary definitions of residuals fail. Quantile residuals are applied in this article to three example data sets.     

Hierarchical linear regression models for conditional quantiles

The quantile regression has several useful features and therefore is gradually developing into a comprehensive approach to the statistical analysis of linear and nonlinear response models, but it cannot deal effectively with the data with a hierarchical structure. In practice, the existence of such data hierarchies is neither accidental nor ignorable, it is a common phenomenon. To ignore this hierarchical data structure risks overlooking the importance of group effects, and may also render many of the traditional statistical analysis techniques used for studying data relationships invalid. On the other hand, the hierarchical models take a hierarchical data structure into account and have also many applications in statistics, ranging from overdispersion to constructing min-max estimators. However, the hierarchical models are virtually the mean regression, therefore, they cannot be used to characterize the entire conditional distribution of a dependent variable given high-dimensional covariates. Furthermore, the estimated coefficient vector (marginal effects) is sensitive to an outlier observation on the dependent variable. In this article, a new approach, which is based on the Gauss-Seidel iteration and taking a full advantage of the quantile regression and hierarchical models, is developed. On the theoretical front, we also consider the asymptotic properties of the new method, obtaining the simple conditions for an n1/2-convergence and an asymptotic normality. We also illustrate the use of the technique with the real educational data which is hierarchical and how the results can be explained.     

Prediction of extremal precipitation by quantile regression forests: from SNU Multiscale Team

This paper considers the problem of spatio-temporal extreme value prediction of precipitation data. This work presents some methods that predict monthly extremes over the next 20 years corresponding to 0.998 quantile at several stations over a certain region. The proposed methods are based on a novel combination of quantile regression forests and circular transformation. As the core of the methodology, quantile regression forests by combining many decorrelated bootstrapping trees may improve prediction performance, and circular transformation is used for building circular transformed predictors of months, which are put into the quantile regression forests model for prediction. The empirical performance of the proposed methods are evaluated through real data analysis, which demonstrates promising results of the proposed approaches.     

Using Spatial Statistics to Select Model Complexity

Testing for nonindependence among the residuals from a regression or time series model is a common approach to evaluating the adequacy of a fitted model. This idea underlies the familiar Durbin–Watson statistic, and previous works illustrate how the spatial autocorrelation among residuals can be used to test a candidate linear model. We propose here that a version of Moran's I statistic for spatial autocorrelation, applied to residuals from a fitted model, is a practical general tool for selecting model complexity under the assumption of iid additive errors. The “space” is defined by the independent variables, and the presence of significant spatial autocorrelation in residuals is evidence that a more complex model is needed to capture all of the structure in the data. An advantage of this approach is its generality, which results from the fact that no properties of the fitted model are used other than consistency. The problem of smoothing parameter selection in nonparametric regression is used to illustrate the performance of model selection based on residual spatial autocorrelation (RSA). In simulation trials comparing RSA with established selection criteria based on minimizing mean square prediction error, smooths selected by RSA exhibit fewer spurious features such as minima and maxima. In some cases, at higher noise levels, RSA smooths achieved a lower average mean square error than smooths selected by GCV. We also briefly describe a possible modification of the method for non-iid errors having short-range correlations, for example, time-series errors or spatial data. Some other potential applications are suggested, including variable selection in regression models.     

Averaged extreme regression quantile

Various events in the nature, economics and in other areas force us to combine the study of extremes with regression and other methods. A useful tool for reducing the role of nuisance regression, while we are interested in the shape or tails of the basic distribution, is provided by the averaged regression quantile and namely by the average extreme regression quantile. Both are weighted means of regression quantile components, with weights depending on the regressors. Our primary interest is the averaged extreme regression quantile (AERQ), its structure, qualities and its applications, e.g. in investigation of a conditional loss given a value exogenous economic and market variables. AERQ has several interesting equivalent forms: While it is originally defined as an optimal solution of a specific linear programming problem, hence is a weighted mean of responses corresponding to the optimal base of the pertaining linear program, we give another equivalent form as a maximum residual of responses from a specific R-estimator of the slope components of regression parameter. The latter form shows that while AERQ equals to the maximum of some residuals of the responses, it has minimal possible perturbation by the regressors. Notice that these finite-sample results are true even for non-identically distributed model errors, e.g. under heteroscedasticity. Moreover, the representations are formally true even when the errors are dependent - this all provokes a question of the right interpretation and of other possible applications.     

A Frisch-Newton Algorithm for Sparse Quantile Regression

Recent experience has shown that interior-point methods using a log barrier approach are far superior to classical simplex methods for computing solutions to large parametric quantile regression problems. In many large empirical applications, the design matrix has a very sparse structure. A typical example is the classical fixed-effect model for panel data where the parametric dimension of the model can be quite large, but the number of non-zero elements is quite small. Adopting recent developments in sparse linear algebra we introduce a modified version of the Prisch-Newton algorithm for quantile regression described in Portnoy and Koenker~([28]). The new algorithm substantially reduces the storage (memory) requirements and increases computational speed. The modified algorithm also facilitates the development of nonparametric quantile regression methods. The pseudo design matrices employed in nonparametric quantile regression smoothing are inherently sparse in both the fidelity and roughness penalty components. Exploiting the sparse structure of these problems opens up a whole range of new possibilities for multivariate smoothing on large data sets via ANOVA-type decomposition and partial linear models.     

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We extend the instrumental variable method for the mean regression models to linear quantile regression models with errors-in-variables. The proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed under some fairly general conditions. Moreover, this approach is practical and easy to implement. Simulation studies show that the finite sample performance of the estimator is satisfactory. The method is applied to a real data study of education and wages.     

分位数变系数模型基于核光滑的变量选择

分位数变系数模型是一种稳健的非参数建模方法.使用变系数模型分析数据时,一个自然的问题是如何同时选择重要变量和从重要变量中识别常数效应变量.本文基于分位数方法研究具有稳健和有效性的估计和变量选择程序.利用局部光滑和自适应组变量选择方法,并对分位数损失函数施加双惩罚,我们获得了惩罚估计.通过BIC准则合适地选择调节参数,提出的变量选择方法具有oracle理论性质,并通过模拟研究和脂肪实例数据分析来说明新方法的有用性.数值结果表明,在不需要知道关于变量和误差分布的任何信息前提下,本文提出的方法能够识别不重要变量同时能区分出常数效应变量.     

A methodology for stochastic inventory models based on a zero‐adjusted Birnbaum‐Saunders distribution

The Birnbaum–Saunders (BS) distribution is receiving considerable attention. We propose a methodology for inventory logistics that allows demand data with zeros to be modeled by means of a new discrete–continuous mixture distribution, which is constructed by using a probability mass at zero and a continuous component related to the BS distribution. We obtain some properties of the new mixture distribution and conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the estimators of its parameters. The methodology for stochastic inventory models considers also financial indicators. We illustrate the proposed methodology with two real‐world demand data sets. It shows its potential, highlighting the convenience of using it by improving the contribution margins of a Chilean food industry. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Longitudinal Study of the Effects of Family Background Factors on Mathematics Achievements Using Quantile Regression

Quantile regression is gradually emerging as a powerful tool for estimating models of conditional quantile functions, and therefore research in this area has vastly increased in the past two decades. This paper, with the quantile regression technique, is the first comprehensive longitudinal study on mathematics participation data collected in Alberta, Canada. The major advantage of longitudinal study is its capability to separate the so-called cohort and age effects in the context of population studies. One aim of this paper is to study whether the family background factors alter performance on the mathematical achievement of the strongest students in the same way as that of weaker students based on the large longitudinal sample of 2000, 2001 and 2002 mathematics participation longitudinal data set. The interesting findings suggest that there may be differential family background factor effects at different points in the mathematical achievement conditional distribution.     

无交叉多指标分位数回归模型中的估计与推断

在过去的30年中分位数回归模型的研究已十分深入.然而在实际的应用场景中,由传统估计方法所得到的分位数回归估计量,经常会在不同分位数水平上出现互相交叉的现象,这给分位数回归模型的实际应用造成了解释和预测上的困难.为解决这个问题,本文提出一种带单调约束的半参数多指标分位数回归模型的研究框架.首先将半参数多指标分位数回归模型与充分降维模型相结合,并利用两者间的联系获得指标估计量的相合估计.之后使用张量积样条方法拟合半参数模型在单调约束条件下的非参数结构.通过数值模拟的方式比较所提方法与现有可行方案所得结果在平均预测误差上的差异,实验结果和实际案例的结果都验证了本文所提出模型的可行性.