航空公司中的飞行员配置研究

随着新航线的开辟和新飞机的投入使用,航空公司的任务量急剧增长,飞行员需求的估计和机组的合理配置变得日益重要。本文基于实际工作需求,提出一类用于评估飞行员数量,并进行机组均衡配置的整数规划模型,为航空公司进行飞行员的数量评估和任务分配提供决策支持。本文在以下两个方面做出改进:1)加入国际长途航线,研究国内短途航线和国际长途航线混合搭配情况下飞行员的配置问题;2)鉴于大型整数规划求解的复杂性,通过评估航空公司所需要的飞行员数量的下界,为决策人员制定中长期规划提供依据。本文通过启发式算法进行飞行员的配置,计算结果接近理论问题的下界,证明了算法的有效性。     

复杂电磁环境下兵力部署优化模型

兵力部署通常由任务区分、兵力编组和兵力配置顺序构成.从战场指挥与控制的角度看,以上3个阶段的局部优化并不意味兵力部署的优化,因此有必要建立具有反馈特征和循环机制的全局优化模型.以任务区分、兵力编组、兵力配置和兵力部署之间的逻辑关系为桥梁,以部队应对复杂电磁环境主要措施为控制点,从事件的角度研究"进行兵力部署"事件的最大发生概率,提出了它与"进行任务区分"、"进行兵力编组"和"进行兵力配置"事件发生概率的最优匹配关系.     

具有随机收入的两类索赔干扰风险模型的破产前最大盈余分布

本文考虑了具有随机收入的两类索赔干扰风险模型.建立了破产前最大盈余分布(?)(u;d)所满足的积分-微分方程,假设年金收入量为指数分布时,得到了当d→+∞时,(?)(u;d)的拉普拉斯解,给出了当两类索赔数量分布均属于有理函数族时破产前最大盈余分布的显式解.     

一般线性模型基于最大特征根的相对效率

定义了一般线性模型参数的最小二乘估计(LS估计)与BLU估计的一种新的相对效率,给出了当设计矩阵满秩,协方差阵非负定时这种相对效率的下界,最后讨论了其与广义相关系数(zρ3)之间的关系.     

偏正态数据下联合位置与尺度模型的统计诊断

本文研究偏正态数据下联合位置与尺度模型,考虑基于数据删除模型的参数估计和统计诊断,比较删除模型与未删除模型相应统计量之间的差异.首次提出基于联合位置与尺度模型的诊断统计量和局部影响分析.通过模拟研究和实例分析,给出不同的诊断统计量来判别异常点或强影响点,研究结果表明本文提出的理论和方法是有用和有效的.     

基于两种模型的整车物流运输计划问题研究

运用2014年全国研究生数学建模竞赛E题的数据,针对乘用车整车物流运输计划问题的第三问展开研究.首先建立整数规划模型,得到要运输156辆Ⅰ型、102辆Ⅱ型和39辆Ⅲ型乘用车的1-1型和1-2型轿运车的最优数量分别为25和5.其次建立逐步转化模型,假设297辆乘用车全为Ⅱ型乘用车,使Ⅲ型乘用车数量满足要求,然后仅考虑Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型乘用车,使Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型乘用车数量满足要求,得到的结果与整数规划模型结果相一致.最后给出逐步转化模型的通用算法和程序.     

研究生招生规模、教育质量和就业率的三维非线性动力学模型分析

考虑研究生招生规模、教育质量和就业率3者之间的相互影响关系,建立了三维非线性动力学模型,利用Routh-Hurwitz判别准则和稳定性判别法给出了模型平衡点的稳定性条件,确定了研究生的最优招生规模。     

最小范数二次无偏估计与最小方差二次无偏估计的关系

本文给出了当V0 ≥ 0时 ,c′σ2 在混合模型M =( y ,Xβ ,Uξ,σ20 V0 )下的最小范数二次无偏估计的表达式及其证明 ;得到了当 y服从正态分布时 ,c′σ2 的最小范数二次无偏估计与其最小方差二次无偏估计之间的关系。     

EV自回归模型的一个相合估计

考虑带有测量误差的自回归模型,在不对替代变量和真实变量之间的关系做任何模型假设的情况下,借助核实数据,给出未知参数的一个基于核实与替代两方面信息的最小二乘估计量,并证得该估计量是相合估计.     

校车安排问题

探讨如何安排校车运行使得教师和工作人员尽量满意的问题.首先建立动态规划模型和选址规划模型,求出合理站点位置及其总距离.然后用归一法定义满意度与距离的函数关系,考虑各区域人数,建立选址规划模型.得到合理站点位置和总满意度.之后建立双目标非线性规划模型,利用量纲分析法给出权重,以此求出合理乘车位置和满意度.最后对问题进行推...     

Simple Fourth-Degree Cubature Formulae with Few Nodes over General Product Regions

A simple method is proposed for constructing fourth-degree cubature formulae over general product regions with no symmetric assumptions. The cubature formulae that are constructed contain at most $n^2+7n+3$ nodes and they are likely the first kind of fourth-degree cubature formulae with roughly $n^2$ nodes for non-symmetric integrations. Moreover, two special cases are given to reduce the number of nodes further. A theoretical upper bound for minimal number of cubature nodes is also obtained.     

A heuristic solution technique to attain the minimal total cost bounds of transporting a homogeneous product with varying demands and supplies

Transportation of a product from multi-source to multi-destination with minimal total transportation cost plays an important role in logistics and supply chain management. Researchers have given considerable attention in minimizing this cost with fixed supply and demand quantities. However, these quantities may vary within a certain range in a period due to the variation of the global economy. So, the concerned parties might be more interested in finding the lower and the upper bounds of the minimal total costs with varying supplies and demands within their respective ranges for proper decision making. This type of transportation problem has received attention of only one researcher, who formulated the problem and solved it by LINGO. We demonstrate that this method fails to obtain the correct upper bound solution always. Then we extend this model to include the inventory costs during transportation and at destinations, as they are interrelated factors. The number of choices of supplies and demands within their respective ranges increases enormously as the number of suppliers and buyers increases. In such a situation, although the lower bound solution can be obtained methodologically, determination of the upper bound solution becomes an NP hard problem. Here we carry out theoretical analyses on developing the lower and the upper bound heuristic solution techniques to the extended model. A comparative study on solutions of small size numerical problems shows promising performance of the current upper bound technique. Another comparative study on results of numerical problems demonstrates the effect of inclusion of the inventory costs.     

Local and global Hopf bifurcation in a neutral population model with age structure

In this paper, an age‐structured population model with the form of neutral functional differential equation is studied. We discuss the stability of the positive equilibrium by analyzing the characteristic equation. Local Hopf bifurcation results are also obtained by choosing the mature delay as bifurcation parameter. On the center manifold, the normal form of the Hopf bifurcation is derived, and explicit formulae for determining the criticality of bifurcation are theoretically given. Moreover, the global continuation of Hopf bifurcating periodic solutions is investigated by using the global Hopf bifurcation theory of neutral equations. Finally, some numerical examples are carried out to support the main results.     

Single Supplier�CBuyer Integrated Inventory Model Under Multiple JIT Delivery and Stock-Dependent Demand

In this paper, an integrated inventory model for a supply chain comprising of single buyer and single supplier is studied when demand is stock-dependent and units in inventory deteriorate at a constant rate. The total cost of the integrated system consists of the transportation cost, inspection cost and the cost of less flexibility under the assumption of JIT deliveries. The total integrated cost of single-supplier and single-buyer is minimized with respect to number of inspections and deliveries, the cycle time of deliveries and the delivery size for the replenishment time. A numerical example is given to validate the model. The sensitivity analysis carried out suggests that the unit inspection cost, deterioration rate of units in inventory and stock-dependent parameter are the critical factors.     

A General Upper Bound for the Satisfiability Threshold of Randomr-SAT Formulae

Experiments on solvingr-SAT random formulae have provided evidence of a satisfiability threshold phenomenon with respect to the ratio of the number of clauses to the number of variables of formulae. Presently, only the threshold of 2-SAT formulae has been proved to exist and has been computed to be equal to 1. For 3-SAT formulae and more generally forr-SAT formulae, lower and upper bounds of the threshold have been established. The best established bounds concern 3-SAT. For an observed threshold of about 4.25, the best lower bound is 3.003 and the best upper bound 4.76. In this paper we establish a general upper bound of the threshold forr-SAT formulae giving a value for 3-SAT of 4.64, significantly improving the previous best upper bound. For this we have defined a more restrictive structure than a satisfying truth assignment for characterizing the satisfiability of a SAT formula which we have called negatively prime solution (NPS). By merely applying the first moment method to negatively prime solutions of a randomr-SAT formula we obtain our bound.     

数据分组和右截尾情形下混合指数分布的参数估计

混合模型是可靠性工程,金融保险和计量经济学等领域中的一类重要模型。本文利用EM算法考虑了混合指数分布在分组数据和右截尾情形下的参数估计问题,并给出了相应的参数估计公式,最后的数值模拟表明EM算法对我们的模型是有效的。     

CAPACITY AND PRICE OF NONRENEWABLE RESOURCE DEPOSITS

This paper develops a model to determine the planned rate of production from a nonrenewable resource deposit and applies the model to the U.S. copper industry to estimate changes in aggregate planned copper production as a function of copper price expectations. Standard investment theory is applied in the model to examine the choice of the planned rate of extraction from limited volume resource deposits. A setting is analyzed in which the total production volume from any site is fixed by the size of the resource deposit at that site. Within this setting, the planned rate of resource extraction is a fully endogenous solution of the model. Properties of the model are investigated to determine changes in the planned rate of production caused by variation in operating cost, investment cost and output price parameters. The planned rate of production from any deposit is found to increase at a decreasing rate, given incremental increases in the output price, ceteris paribus. The finding is illustrated with data describing mined and yet-to-be mined copper deposits in the United States. A close match is observed between the calculated production rate for mined copper deposits and the mine capacity (rate of production) chosen by the owners of those deposits, given plausible assumptions about mine owner price expectations. The planned rate of production is aggregated across all deposits and plotted as a function of output price. An aggregate medium run copper supply curve is obtained, indicating the elasticity of planned production to changes in the expected long run output price of copper. This empirical example suggests that doubling the output price from $1 to $2 per pound copper, would triple aggregate planned copper production in the United States.     

A school bus scheduling problem

This paper introduces a school bus scheduling problem wherein trips for each school are given. A trip consists of a sequence of bus stops and their designated school. Each school has its fixed time window within which trips should be completed. A school bus can serve multiple trips for multiple schools. The school bus scheduling problem seeks to optimize bus schedules to serve all the given trips considering the school time windows. We first model the problem as a vehicle routing problem with time windows (VRPTW) by treating a trip as a virtual stop. Two assignment problem based exact approaches are then proposed for special cases and a heuristic algorithm is proposed for more general cases. Benchmark problems and computational experiments are presented. Computational experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.     

Calculating ellipse area by the Monte Carlo method and analysing dice poker with Excel at high school

This paper reports on lessons in which 18–19 years old high school students modelled random processes with Excel. In the first lesson, 26 students formulated a hypothesis on the area of ellipse by using the analogy between the areas of circle, square and rectangle. They verified the hypothesis by the Monte Carlo method with a spreadsheet model developed in the lesson. In the second lesson, 27 students analysed the dice poker game. First, they calculated the probability of the hands by combinatorial formulae. Then, they verified the result with a spreadsheet model developed in the lesson. The students were given a questionnaire to find out if they found the lesson interesting and contributing to their mathematical and technological knowledge.     

Performance analysis of a call center with interactive voice response units

A Call center may be defined as a service unit where a group of agents handle a large volume of incoming telephone calls for the purpose of sales, service, or other specialized transactions. Typically a call center consists of telephone trunk lines, a switching machine known as the automatic call distributor (ACD) together with a voice response unit (VRU), and telephone sales agents. Customers usually dial a special number provided by the call center; if a trunk line is free, the customer seizes it, otherwise the call is lost. Once the trunk line is seized, the caller is instructed to choose among several options provided by the call center via VRU. After completing the instructions at the VRU, the call is routed to an available agent. If all agents are busy, the call is queued at the ACD until one is free. One of the challenging issues in the design of a call center is the determination of the number of trunk lines and agents required for a given call load and a given service level. Call center industries use the Erlang-C and the Erlang-B formulae in isolation to determine the number of agents and the number of trunk lines needed respectively. In this paper we propose and analyze a flow controlled network model to capture the role of the VRU as well as the agents. Initially, we assume Poisson arrivals, exponential processing time at the VRU and exponential talk time. This model provides a way to determine the number of trunk lines and agents required simultaneously. An alternative simplified model (that ignores the role of the VRU) will be to use anM|M|S|N queueing model (whereS is the number of agents andN is the number of trunk lines) to determine the optimalS andN subject to service level constraints. We will compare the effectiveness of this simplified model and other approximate methods with our model. We will also point out the drawbacks of using Erlang-C and Erlang-B formulae in isolation. Contributed paper for the First Madrid Conference on Queueing Theory, held in Complutense University, Madrid, Spain, July 2–5, 2002