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综合评价的随机模拟求解算法及应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在经典的综合评价理论里,评价结论的信息形式通常是绝对的.本文认为这种绝对的结论形式阻碍了理论对实际问题本质的贴近,是产生“多评价结论非一致性”问题的重要原因.针对该问题,提出了一种基于“蒙特卡罗仿真”思想的随机模拟型综合评价求解算法,并对相应的排序方法进行了研究,该方法的特点是可产生带概率(可靠性)信息的评价结论,因而较绝对的结论形式从问题的可解释性方面拥有了更多的优势.因随机模拟求解方法具有独立性,作为示例,将其应用于“自下而上”的评价模式中,构建出一种新颖的自主式评价方法.最后,用一个算例验证了方法的有效性. 相似文献
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针对群体评价中共识集结的相关问题,从仿真的视角讨论了评价信息随机化的群体共识聚合求解方法。首先,面向实数类型的评价信息,将精确性的数据给予一定的宽松性处理,进一步结合正态分布的3σ原则,利用随机模拟的方式集结出带有概率特征的可能性排序;其次,面向区间数类型的评价信息,整合出各子区间发生概率不同的区间数评价信息,在充分随机模拟的情况下,给出了带有优胜概率特征的可能性排序。最后,通过相应的算例进行求解分析,说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。基于群体共识视角,针对实数和区间数两种类型的评价信息,分别进行相应的随机化处理,并为进一步探索区间数的分布形式提供了一种新的研究思路。 相似文献
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《数学的实践与认识》2015,(23)
针对大学多元文化评价中"模糊概念"难于处理,评价中存在多种数据形式的问题,提出基于随机数的加权组合决策方法.方法将多种数据形式的评价信息转换为带有概率特征的随机数,并利用计算机模拟仿真方法进行求解,最终得到概率形式的可能性排序,使大学文化综合评价方法摆脱单一数据形式的束缚,为大学多元文化这类复杂问题的综合评价提供了一条有效的解决途径. 相似文献
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针对综合评价中方法种类繁多且无统一比较标准的问题,选取了四种突出被评价对象之间差异的评价方法,采用随机模拟的方式分别从评价方法的稳定性及对差异的凸显能力两个方面进行了比较分析。得出了四种方法稳定性由高到低分别为均方差法、最大离差法、熵值法、拉开档次法,且评价方法的稳定性越高,则其对差异的凸显能力反而越差的结论。该研究不仅验证了差异驱动型评价方法的相关特性,为评价者关于评价方法的选取提供了参考意见,而且随机模拟方法的应用,可为类似的多评价方法的比较问题提供技术参考。 相似文献
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基于经典综合评价理论和Monte-Carlo模拟技术,以速度、时间负荷裕度、空间负荷裕度、畅通可靠度、行程时间可靠度等5个因素作为评价指标,建立了城市道路应急疏散能力随机模拟综合评价模型.该算法通过自主优势量矩阵和优势权向量计算,利用随机模拟技术求解被评价对象之间优劣关系的优胜度矩阵,从而得到被评价对象的综合评价向量.研究表明,在评价结果一致的前提下以优胜度矩阵形式表示的评价结果比其他常规方法,提供的信息更加丰富,充分反映了受多种因素综合影响的城市道路应急疏散能力评价的客观实际情况,研究结果可为城市道路应急疏散能力安全运行和升级改造提供决策依据. 相似文献
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为了求解随机整数规划问题,提出了随机整数规划期望值模型的概念,分析了利用DNA遗传算法求解此类问题的优点,并设计了求解算法,最后通过报童问题,验证了算法的可行性和有效性. 相似文献
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Vanja Calija Andrew J. Higgins Phillip A. Jackson Leone M. Bielig Danny Coomans 《Annals of Operations Research》2001,108(1-4):123-142
Selection for superior clones is the most important aspect of sugar cane improvement programs, and is a long and expensive process. While studies have investigated different components of selection independently, there has not been a whole system approach to improve the process. This study observes the problem as an integrated system, where if one parameter changes the state of the whole system changes. A computer based stochastic simulation model that accurately represents the selection was developed. This paper describes the simulation model, showing its accuracy as well as how a combination of dynamic programming and branch and bound can be applied to the model to optimise the selection system, giving a new application of these techniques. The model can be directly applied to any region targeted by sugarcane breeding programs or to other clonally propagated crops. 相似文献
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A model for a stochastic recirculation system with randomly accessed multiple heterogeneous servers, no waiting rooms, and exponentially-distributed service times is provided. In this system the units are assigned to one of the servers upon arrival by random mechanism. Units which find all servers busy recirculate and combine with the incoming arrivals and join those already in the system to initiate the next cycle. The equilibrium behavior of the internal and external stochastic processes of the system is analyzed using a two parameter approximation. A simulation model is also developed and its behavior is compared against the analytical model at the steady state. The model with randomly-accessed servers is compared to a single server model already established in the literature. The performance of the model is then examined for a wide range of parameter values to obtain conclusions about its optimal performances. 相似文献
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An extension of probabilistic PERT/CPM is proposed as a framework for soliciting expert opinion to characterize random variables for stochastic treatment in simulation models. By eliciting minimum, modal, ninetieth percentile, and maximum estimates, the distribution of variables with probability density functions of beta form can be explicitly characterized without relying on the traditional, but empirically unverified, assumption of a standard deviation equal to one-sixth of the range. This practical and inexpensive technique is illustrated by application to a wildfire protection planning problem – estimating the time required to produce a given length of fireline by different firefighting resources under diverse conditions. The estimated production times are an essential input to a planning model of initial attack on wildland fires used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, and provide that agency with useful rules-of-thumb for use in firefighter training. 相似文献
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《Optimization》2012,61(3):401-415
We study an approach for the evaluation of approximation and solution methods for multistage linear stochastic programmes by measuring the performance of the obtained solutions on a set of out-of-sample scenarios. The main point of the approach is to restore the feasibility of solutions to an approximate problem along the out-of-sample scenarios. For this purpose, we consider and compare different feasibility and optimality based projection methods. With this at hand, we study the quality of solutions to different test models based on classical as well as recombining scenario trees. 相似文献