“网民知多少?”——中国互联网络信息中心全国调查抽样方案设计

互联网时代 ,国家和相关企业掌握互联网使用的动态变化情况是非常重要的。本设计采用了多阶段、分层、PPS与等概率相结合的混合抽样方法 ,考虑了时间和经费的限制 ,克服了缺少完整抽样框等困难 ,使抽样的科学性和可操作性得到了较好的结合 ,为中国互联网络信息中心的全国居民上网情况调查提供了切实可行的抽样方案     

居民生活私人交通碳排放驱动因素的“三级分解”模型

突破以往采用难以保证精确性估算数据的局限,根据居民生活私人交通所消耗的能源种类,利用官方统计年鉴中的数据,在保证数据真实性的基础上,基于扩展的IPAT与LMDI模型,构建一个包含居民私人交通碳排放强度、碳排放结构、交通消费倾向、收入、家庭规模与户数6个因素的居民私人交通碳排放驱动因素的"三级分解模型",对居民生活私人碳排放及其驱动因素进行核算.结果建议进一步降低居民私人交通碳排放强度,提高居民能源消费的利用效率;同时鼓励发展小排量与新能源汽车消费,并且大力发展公共交通,倡导居民出行多采用公共交通工具出行,引导节能减排的出行方式.     

考虑检验错误的集团抽样检验接收概率函数

本文给出存在集团检验误差时的集团抽样检验接受概率计算公式,该公式可用于设计抽样方案、分析集团检验错误对抽样方案的影响.采用计算机模拟抽样检验的方法对给出的公式加以验证,证明了该所给公式的正确性.同时通过对集团检验错误存在与否的抽样检验特征(OC)曲线的比较,指出:以往的集团抽样检验方案设计,都是在假设无检验误差前提下设计的,在抽样检验中,若存在检验错误,会严重影响抽样检验的接收概率,使抽样检验结果不能客观地反映检验批的质量.     

不同地区人均收入抽样比较的非齐性方差分析

以家庭为抽样单元调查居民的收入,由于家庭人口的不同而得到方差非齐性的样本文中讨论方差非齐性样本的方差分析的问题,给出了不同地区人均收入抽样比较的分析方法.     

记数抽样检查方案设计与分析软件研制

利用VisualC++6.0Windows开发设计了抽样方案分析与设计软件。软件集成多种功能于一窗口,直观性强,操作方便,计算速度快,不仅可对现行抽样方案检索与分析,而且还可对一次、二次、五次和序贯抽样方案进行设计与分析,并作计算机模拟,可供抽样检查和抽样方案设计人员使用。     

批发零售贸易业、餐饮业抽样调查方案及数据处理方法

本文介绍我国批发零售贸易业、餐饮业调查的抽样方案,方案以省为总体,区县为初级抽样单元,为满足对部分地市(域)估计的需要,对区县的抽样考虑了不放回样本追加。文中也给出了与抽样方案配套的总体和域目标量的估计及相应的方差估计公式。     

福建省碳排放分布结构特征及影响因素分析

基于福建省6大产业和居民生活消费17种一次性能源,测算了1995年至2012年福建省能源消费和碳排放的总体趋势,分析了碳排放的能源空间分布结构及产业空间分布结构;创新型地将能源结构效应分解为能源消费种类变化效应和能源消费量变化效应,从而对碳排放分解模型进行了改进;并从能源强度效应、能源结构效应、经济发展效应和人口规模效应分解了各因素对福建省生产和生活碳排放的贡献值、变化趋势及相互作用机理.研究结果表明,福建省的碳排放在今后很长一段时间内将继续保持较快的增长趋势,其中经济发展是导致排放量持续增加的主因,能源效率的提高是减少能源消耗和降低碳排放量的重要手段,能源消费结构的调整和优化具有较大的减排节能的潜力.     

基于辅助信息的分层排序集抽样及调查费用分析北大核心

辅助信息在改进和完善抽样设计、提高抽样估计精度和节省抽样费用等方面具有重要作用,鉴于此,基于分层排序集样本建立了总体均值的比率估计量,同时考虑估计精度和调查费用两个方面,证明了抽样方案的优良性.最后,通过实例进一步分析,结果表明,在给定的估计精度下,分层排序集抽样方法可以有效降低抽样调查费用.     

基于辅助信息的分层排序集抽样及调查费用分析

辅助信息在改进和完善抽样设计、提高抽样估计精度和节省抽样费用等方面具有重要作用,鉴于此,基于分层排序集样本建立了总体均值的比率估计量,同时考虑估计精度和调查费用两个方面,证明了抽样方案的优良性.最后,通过实例进一步分析,结果表明,在给定的估计精度下,分层排序集抽样方法可以有效降低抽样调查费用.     

我们是怎样应用调整型抽检方案的

我厂为满足人民生活和市场供应的需要,于1981年正式试制和批量生产DD28型单相电度表,全年总产量为25万只.为保证产品质量和生产的顺利进行,按全面质量管理的要求,在检验工作中全面推行了抽样检验的方法. 目前,电度表月产批量为20000～25000只,如果按传统的逐只检验方法进行验收,则检验费用很高.考虑到该产品结构简单、单件成本较低,在69种外来件和19种自制伴的质量验收中和电度表的成品出厂验收中,采用了“调整型抽样检验方案”.本文从四个方面介绍开展抽样检验工作的情况。 一、方案的选择 抽样检验方案可分为计数和计量检验两个大类,由于…     

ENERGY‐USE CHOICES AND ALLOWANCE TRADING UNDER THE PERSONAL CARBON TRADING SCHEME

Carbon emissions caused by the household sector have become a major contributor to total emissions. Personal carbon trading (PCT), although untested in practice, could potentially be a powerful tool to induce change in consumer behavior. In this paper, we present an optimization model to determine the energy use choices and allowance trading, and a market equilibrium model to obtain the total supply and demand functions of allowances and then to derive the equilibrium allowance price. It is shown that the level of allocated allowance, energy price, emission rate, and transaction costs could influence the equilibrium allowance price and traded volume. Furthermore, the allowance price is affected negatively and slightly by changes in energy prices, so the total energy price variations will be lessened relatively in the PCT scheme. To further demonstrate these relationships, numerical simulations are conducted. On the basis of the simulation results, the implications of this study are discussed and suggestions for future study are provided.     

中国碳排放灰色预测

中国碳排放问题成为世界关注的焦点问题.预测中国未来碳排放有助于实现2020年的碳减排目标.选取2002-2009年中国碳排放数据,通过灰色GM(1,1)模型,对中国碳排放进行了短期预测.模型检验结果表明:预测精度为二级,关联度、均方差比值和小误差概率均为一级,预测结果与实际值出入较小,到2015年中国碳排放量将超过三十二亿吨碳,"十二五"期间二氧化碳减排形势严峻.针对研究结果,提出发展低碳经济,提高能源效率和发展非化石能源来降低碳排放的策略.     

家庭经济因素和人口特征如何影响不同收入等级城镇居民消费

本文使用2007年中国家庭收入项目(CHIPS)调查数据,在考虑家庭消费影响因素的线性和非线性效应的前提下,采用可加的半参数分位数回归模型,在不同消费水平上研究家庭经济因素和家庭人口特征是否影响消费.结果表明,消费水平较高的家庭的收入弹性也比较大.户主受教育年限和家庭子女数量对消费具有正向影响,尤其对低收入家庭影响显著.家庭消费在地区上存在明显差异,地区效应对中部低消费家庭的影响尤其显著.户主年龄、户主健康状况和家庭规模也是家庭消费的显著影响因素.     

A multi-period stochastic portfolio optimization model applied for an airline company in the EU ETS

This paper aims to set up and solve a multi-period stochastic portfolio optimization model from an airline company’s point of view, considering all the specific European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) regulatory, managerial and trading constraints (i.e. physical constraints). Our contribution to existing academic literature is multiple. As the first ever case, we apply this technique to the aviation sector, a newly included sector within the EU ETS. More than mainly incorporating physical and technical (‘engineering’) features and focusing on short-term planning issues, we particularly address financial features and focus on mid-term planning issues. Therefore, instead of using spot prices, we run Monte Carlo simulations of correlated geometric Brownian motions (GBM) for traded futures prices of various emission allowance types for different CO₂ delivery time periods. We thereby specifically refer to the existing exchange-traded emission allowance types EU Emission Allowance (EUA) and Certified Emission Reduction (CER). By implementing actually valid and real-world-oriented regulatory constraints for EU ETS, namely managerial and trading constraints, our model implies a real-life application. We also highlight the possibility of banking and borrowing of emission allowances between CO₂ compliance periods, which is a crucial regulatory feature of EU ETS.     

A carbon risk prediction model for Chinese heavy-polluting industrial enterprises based on support vector machine

Chinese heavy-polluting industrial enterprises, especially petrochemical or chemical industry, labeled low carbon efficiency and high emission load, are facing the tremendous pressure of emission reduction under the background of global shortage of energy supply and constrain of carbon emission. However, due to the limited amount of theoretic and practical research in this field, problems like lacking prediction indicators or models, and the quantified standard of carbon risk remain unsolved. In this paper, the connotation of carbon risk and an assessment index system for Chinese heavy-polluting industrial enterprises (eg. coal enterprise, petrochemical enterprises, chemical enterprises et al.) based on support vector machine are presented. By using several heavy-polluting industrial enterprises’ related data, SVM model is trained to predict the carbon risk level of a specific enterprise, which allows the enterprise to identify and manage its carbon risks. The result shows that this method can predict enterprise’s carbon risk level in an efficient, accurate way with high practical application and generalization value.     

总量控制和交易环境下考虑随机需求的企业决策分析

总量控制和交易(Cap-and-Trade, C&T)给排放企业运营决策带来了新的挑战。本文提出一个非线性优化模型分析C&T环境下的企业最优产量,并在绿色改进和碳权交易之间有效权衡。模型不仅考虑了随机需求和碳价波动,还考虑了绿色改进的边际递减效果和实施绿色生产的风险。理论分析证明了最优解的存在性,并给出了排放企业的最优决策及C&T环境下企业新的生产条件。解析分析表明:与非C&T环境相比,新的最优产量更低,实际排放下降;碳配额虽然影响企业利润和碳权交易量,但不影响最优产量和最优改进投资;碳价和绿色改进系数越大,越有利于促进企业实施绿色改进减少排放;企业利润随绿色改进系数和碳配额的增加而上升,随单位产品碳排放的增加而下降。数值分析验证了理论模型及其分析结果;蒙特卡洛模拟揭示利润波动受需求风险、绿色改进风险和碳价波动的影响,但需求风险对利润波动的影响更为显著。     

Planning the production of a fleet of domestic combined heat and power generators

This paper describes a planning problem, arising in the energy supply chain, that deals with the planning of the production runs of micro combined heat and power (microCHP) appliances installed in houses, cooperating in a fleet. Two types of this problem are described. The first one is the Single House Planning Problem (SHPP), where the focus is on supplying heat in the household. The second one combines many microCHPs into a Fleet Planning Problem (FPP) and focuses on the mutual electricity output, while still considering the local heat demand in the individual households. The problem is modeled as an ILP. For practical use a local search method is developed for the FPP, based on a dynamic programming formulation of the SHPP.     

强制减排规制下基于碳减排利润增量分享契约的供应链协调研究

碳减排会增加制造商的成本,导致批发价和零售价提高,从而抑制市场需求。以此为背景,本文针对由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的供应链,研究了强制减排规制下考虑消费者低碳偏好时的供应链决策与协调。通过设计碳减排利润增量分享契约协调制造商和零售商的决策,实现帕累托改进,利用Rubinstein讨价还价模型最终确定减排利润分享比例。研究发现,实施碳减排利润分享契约能有效提高零售商的订货量,并降低批发价格;制造商的利润随着消费者低碳意识提高而提高;当净化率较低时,零售商的利润随消费者低碳意识提高而提高;当净化率较高时,零售商的利润随消费者低碳意识提高而降低;最后,论文通过数值模拟验证了碳减排利润分享契约的有效性。     

Complexity of sales effort and carbon emission reduction effort in a two-parallel household appliance supply chain model

This paper studies the complexity of sales effort and carbon emission reduction effort in a Bertrand household appliance supply chain system. A two-parallel model consisting of a traditional supply chain without any carbon emission reduction effort and a low-carbon supply chain with carbon emission reduction effort is established. The chain to chain competition is analyzed in three scenarios, one of which is a horizontal Nash game, and the others are the traditional supply chain Stackelberg game and the low-carbon supply chain Stackelberg game. The optimal solutions of the horizontal Nash game and the Stackelberg game are obtained and three models’ dynamic evolutions based on the bounded rationality are investigated. A dynamic Stackelberg game model with respect to five variables is proposed and investigated via the stable region, the bifurcation, and the maximum Lyapunov exponent. The profits of the two-parallel household appliance supply chains are compared in three dynamic game structures. An interesting phenomenon that the system will enter a six-cycle state after the two-cycle state and fall into chaos directly is discovered in the traditional supply chain Stackelberg game. Our results suggest that the adjustments of price would affect the stability and profits much more than the sales effort and carbon emission reduction effort in all three game structures. Every supply chain should take the suitable adjustment speeds for the price and sales effort to keep the system in the stable state. Each adjustment should not exceed the domain of attraction.