基于二次优化BP神经网络的期货价格预测

针对BP算法存在的不足,结合神经网络、遗传算法和主成分分析的优点,提出基于二次优化BP神经网络的期货价格预测算法.初次优化采用主成分分析法对网络结构进行优化,第二次优化采用自适应遗传算法对网络参数进行优化,将经过二次优化后建立的BP神经网络模型用于期货价格预测.经仿真检验,用新方法建立的模型对期货价格进行预测,在预测的精度和速度方面都优于单纯BP神经网络模型.     

基于GRA-CS-BP算法的期货价格预测

针对在采用BP神经网络进行期货价格预测时,存在的模型结构复杂,易陷入局部极小值,模型无法收敛问题.考虑从网络结构和网络参数两个方面对BP网络模型进行优化,由此提出基于GRA-CS-BP算法的期货价格预测方法.首先用灰色关联度分析法进行输入变量筛选,找出和预测价格关联度大的重要因素作为网络输入,简化网络模型整体结构.然后采用布谷鸟算法对网络权阈值参数进行优化,将经过选择优化后建立的BP神经网络模型用于期货价格预测.仿真结果表明,新模型不仅具有更高的预测精度,同时其运行的稳定性也要好于单纯BP神经网络模型,为期货价格预测提出了一种新的方法.     

基于主成分分析的水质评价方法

主成分分析法能够在保证原始数据信息损失最小的情况下,以少数的综合变量取代原有的多维变量,使数据结构大为简化,并且客观地确定变量权数,避免了主观随意性.应用主成分分析法对长春市地面水环境进行评价,且与其它评价方法相比较,结果显示主成分分析法更客观且指导性较强,是一种行之有效的水质评价方法.通过主成分分析进行水质评价,可为水资源规划、利用、开发和环境系统优化提供更为客观的参考依据.     

基于多元混沌时间序列的油田产量预测模型

油田产量的预测一直是石油工作者研究的重要课题.针对油田产油量、产水量、地层压力和时间之间有着混沌的特征,利用多变量混沌时间序列等方法研究了油田产量的混沌建模和预测问题.用C-C算法确定每一个变量的嵌入维数和延迟时间,重构多元混沌时间序列的相空间;使用基于奇异值分解的主成分分析消除重构相空间的冗余变量和噪声干扰,建立了有较好泛化性能的多元混沌时间序列油田产量预测模型;最后将混沌时间序列预测和Elman神经网络进行耦合,创建了基于主成分分析前馈网络的多元混沌时间序列油田产量预测方法.应研究表明,提出的多变量混沌时间序列预测方法的预测精确度优于单变量预测,它可用于解决具有多变量混沌时间序列的预测问题.     

对主成分分析法三个问题的剖析

从主成分分析法的基本原理入手,针对教学过程中学生对主成分分析法感到费解的三个问题进行了逐一剖析:1.为什么主成分系数是经标准差标准化后原始变量的协方差矩阵的特征向量?2.特征向量正负号如何选取?对进一步的研究如计算综合得分和聚类分析有何影响?3.主成分载荷值是如何得来的?同时指出有些教材在计算主成分得分时混淆了主成分载荷和特征向量的概念,以致造成错误的结果.     

基于PCA-K-means和PCA-SOM神经网络的葡萄酒分类

针对葡萄酒物理和化学数据成分冗余,提出了两种葡萄酒分类的算法,分别是主成分分析K均值和主成分分析自组织神经网络算法.这两种算法对葡萄酒的物理化学成分进行了主成分分析,提取了主要的影响因素,将输入维数降低,再利用K均值和自组织神经网络算法分别对葡萄酒进行分类和比较.实验结果表明,PCA-K-means和PCA-SOM都具有较高的准确率,都有一定的使用价值和可操作性,并且PCA-K-means算法优于其它的算法.     

基于提取权重的概率神经网络算法在陶瓷鉴定中的应用

通过提取陶瓷样品对瓷器鉴定的影响因素,采用了基于欧氏距离分析法,得到了各个因素的权重,从而能够确定影响因素的关键因素.通过关键因素作为神经网络模型输入变量,建立基于提取权重的概率神经网络算法.实例分析表明:算法通过提取权重能够提高分类准确度.在大样本实例分析中,算法比其他统计分析和相似度算法具有更快的收敛速度,并能够应用到其它数据处理中,具有广泛的适用性.     

主成分分析法在高校学生质量综合评价中的应用

主成分分析法能够在保证原始数据信息损失最小的情况下,以少数的综合变量取代原有的多维变量,使数据结构大为简化,并且客观地确定变量权重,避免了主观随意性.应用主成分分析方法对高等学校学生质量进行了综合评价,根据综合得分给出了科学的排名,客观地反映了学生各方面的特征.     

对应用主成分法进行综合评价的探讨

本文针对用主成分法进行综合评价时存在的缺点,提出了分组主成分评价法。即先用因子分析法对变量进行分组后,然后再分别对各组变量进行主成分评价,既保证了主成分法的优点,也克服它在评价中的缺点,提高综合评价结果的合理性。并用该方法对实例进行了分析,取得了较好的效果。     

主成分分析法在多变量变动分析中的应用——以城镇居民消费结构变动分析为例

对常用的主成分分析法进行修改,使得修改后的主成分分析法可用以研究多个变量在某一时间段变动的大小与趋势,并以我国城镇居民在2000年-2008年期间消费结构变动分析为例,讨论该方法的应用.     

On the combination of kernel principal component analysis and neural networks for process indirect control

ABSTRACT

A new adaptive kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) for non-linear discrete system control is proposed. The proposed approach can be treated as a new proposition for data pre-processing techniques. Indeed, the input vector of neural network controller is pre-processed by the KPCA method. Then, the obtained reduced neural network controller is applied in the indirect adaptive control. The influence of the input data pre-processing on the accuracy of neural network controller results is discussed by using numerical examples of the cases of time-varying parameters of single-input single-output non-linear discrete system and multi-input multi-output system. It is concluded that, using the KPCA method, a significant reduction in the control error and the identification error is obtained. The lowest mean squared error and mean absolute error are shown that the KPCA neural network with the sigmoid kernel function is the best.     

Prediction of work-related accidents according to working conditions using support vector machines

Support vector machines (SVMs), which are a kind of statistical learning methods, were applied in this research work to predict occupational accidents with success. In the first place, semi-parametric principal component analysis (SPPCA) was used in order to perform a dimensional reduction, but no satisfactory results were obtained. Next, a dimensional reduction was carried out using an innovative and intelligent computing regression algorithm known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model with good results. The variables selected as important by the previous MARS model were taken as input variables for a SVM model. This SVM technique was able to classify, according to their working conditions, those workers that have suffered a work-related accident in the last 12 months and those that have not. SVM technique does not over-fit the experimental data and gives place to a better performance than back-propagation neural network models. Finally, the results and conclusions of this study are presented.     

高师院校学生综合素质评价指标的科学确定

通过对9个原变量进行主成分分析,得出一个用于评价高师院校学生综合素质的评价指标.     

对台湾工农业产品产量的主成分分析

主成分析分析法是一种将多个指标化为少数几个不相关的综合指标 (即主成分 )的多元统计分析方法 .本文通过运用主成分方法对我国台湾地区 1 989 1 996工农业主要指标的原始数据的处理分析 ,表明主成分分析确是在实用中很可行的一种常用的统计方法 .     

Functional outlier detection with robust functional principal component analysis

Functional principal component analysis is the preliminary step to represent the data in a lower dimensional space and to capture the main modes of variability of the data by means of small number of components which are linear combinations of original variables. Sensitivity of the variance and the covariance functions to irregular observations make this method vulnerable to outliers and may not capture the variation of the regular observations. In this study, we propose a robust functional principal component analysis to find the linear combinations of the original variables that contain most of the information, even if there are outliers and to flag functional outliers. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method on an extensive simulation study and two datasets from chemometrics and environment.     

Principal component histograms from interval-valued observations

The focus of this paper is to propose an approach to construct histogram values for the principal components of interval-valued observations. Le-Rademacher and Billard (J Comput Graph Stat 21:413–432, 2012) show that for a principal component analysis on interval-valued observations, the resulting observations in principal component space are polytopes formed by the convex hulls of linearly transformed vertices of the observed hyper-rectangles. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to translate these polytopes into histogram-valued data to provide numerical values for the principal components to be used as input in further analysis. Other existing methods of principal component analysis for interval-valued data construct the principal components, themselves, as intervals which implicitly assume that all values within an observation are uniformly distributed along the principal components axes. However, this assumption is only true in special cases where the variables in the dataset are mutually uncorrelated. Representation of the principal components as histogram values proposed herein more accurately reflects the variation in the internal structure of the observations in a principal component space. As a consequence, subsequent analyses using histogram-valued principal components as input result in improved accuracy.     

基于IGA-BP神经网络和专家系统的我国银行流动性风险预警研究

以因子分析主成分方法选取预警指标;以免疫遗传算法对BP神经网络收敛速度较慢、易陷入局部极小等缺陷进行改进,形成IGA-BP神经网络.采用IGA-BP神经网络对银行的流动性风险进行预警,并提出以拥有强大知识库的专家系统对其输出的预警信号进行进一步核准和验证,确保预警信号的有效性,构建我国商业银行流动性风险预警机制.     

基于主成分-SFA的银行投入产出效率评价模型及实证

通过测算贷款、存款等投入要素对净利息收入的贡献,评价商业银行的投入产出效率,对银行的资本运营和监管机构的银行资本监管具有重要意义.原始投入变量过多和变量之间的高度相关都会对评价模型的估计和检验产生影响.创新和特色在于:一是通过提取互不相关的2个主成分,反映6个原始投入变量95%以上的信息.建立基于主成分的SFA模型,克服变量过多和变量高度相关对模型参数估计和检验的影响,解决原始投入变量高度相关导致的系数检验不显著和符号不正确问题.二是利用主成分回归,将主成分与投入变量的关系表达式代入基于主成分的SFA模型,进而确定投入变量的权重系数,建立银行的投入产出模型,反映6个投入变量对净利息收入的影响规律.实证研究结果表明:一是利用主成分建立的SFA模型系数检验显著,技术效率随时间增加.二是利息支出、贷款余额、总资产、存款总额、固定资产和员工人数产出弹性分别为0.287,0.272,0.254,0.086,0.072和0.053.因此影响银行净利息收入的主要因素为利息支出、贷款余额、总资产.存款总额、固定资产和员工人数对净利息收入的影响较小.三是18家商业银行的规模系数为1.025,银行的净利息收入表现出规模经济特征.     

基于支持向量机的粒子群神经网络集成股市预测模型

为有效提高神经网络集成的泛化能力,先利用量子粒子群和主成分分析提高集成个体的泛化能力,再利用泛化能力强的支持向量机回归集成生成输出结论,建立一个基于支持向量机的粒子群神经网络集成股市预测模型.试验表明,该模型能有效提高神经网络集成系统的泛化能力,预测精度高,稳定性好.     

Knowledge discovery using a neural network simultaneous optimization algorithm on a real world classification problem

Artificial neural networks have been shown to perform well for two-group classification problems. However, current research has yet to determine a method for identifying relevant input variables in the neural network model for real world classification problems. The common practice in neural network research is to include all available input variables that could possibly contribute to the model without determination of whether they help in estimating the unknown function. One problem with this avenue of neural network research is the inability to extract the knowledge that could be useful to researchers by identifying those input variables that contribute to estimating the true underlying function of the data. A method has been proposed in past research, the Neural Network Simultaneous Optimization Algorithm (NNSOA), which was shown to be successful for a limited number of continuous problems. This research proposes using the NNSOA on a real world classification problem that not only finds good solutions for estimating unknown functions, but can also correctly identify those variables that contribute to the model.