非线性Poisson-Gamma回归模型中存在偏大离差时离差参数的齐性检验

Poisson回归模型广泛地应用于分析计数型数据，但该模型往往存在偏大离差(overdispersion)问题．刻画Poisson回归模型的偏大离差性的两种方法是拟似然方法和随机效应法(Lee＆Nelder，2000)，已有许多作者利用随机效应法研究了Poisson模型的偏大离差的检验问题．但他们均假定随机效应是独立同分布的，本文对他们的假设进行检验．我们分别在组内效应一致和组内效应不一致的情形下，研究了存在偏大离差的Poisson-Gamma非线性随机效应模型中，随机效应方差(称为离差参数)的齐性检验问题，得到了离差参数齐性的score检验统计量．最后给出两个数值例子说明本文方法的应用．     

离散型广义非线性纵向数据模型中偏离名义离差的检验及其功效模拟

离散型广义非线性模型包括Poisson,二项,负二项模型.本文讨论离散型广义非线性纵向数据模型中偏离名义离差的检验问题,得到了检验的score统计量,并利用MonteCarlo方法研究了检验统计量的性质.最后,利用杀虫剂数据说明了检验方法的应用.     

指数族广义非线性随机系数模型的变离差检验

指数族广义非线性随机系数模型是Smith &; Heitjan［１０］和 Wei et al［１１］所研究模型的推广。该文分别在模型离差 (dispersion) 的权不变和变异时，讨论了指数族 广义非线性随机系数模型的变离差的检验问题，得到了score检验统计量。并利用欧洲野兔数据，分别对正态分布模型、Γ 分布模型和 逆高斯分布模型说明检验方法的有效性。     

单纯形分布模型的统计诊断

该文讨论了单纯形分布广义线性模型和广义非线性模型的影响分析问题, 得到了若干有用的诊断统计量;证明了数据删除模型和均值漂移模型的的等价性定理.同时还研究了该模型的变离差检验,得到了Score检验统计量.最后给出了两个实例, 说明该文方法的应用价值.     

散度偏大计数数据回归模型的变量选择与模型比较

讨论了具有散度偏大特征计数数据的建模与拟合问题.针对导致数据散度偏大的原因和常用的几类候选模型的结构,分别给出了关于嵌套模型的模型与变量同时选择的Bayes方法和关于非嵌套模型的模型检验与比较方法,并在此基础上进一步完善,提出了较为系统完整的模型与变量选择方法.实际例子说明了方法的具体实现过程和有效性.     

基于连续可分的广义非线性纵向数据模型偏离名义离差的score检验及其功效

指数族非线性模型或广义非线性模型是广义线性模型和正态回归模型的自然推广.本文针对可分的连续型指数族回归模型(如正态模型,Γ模型,逆高斯模型),讨论广义非线性纵向数据模型中偏离名义离差的检验问题,得到了检验的score统计量,并推导了它们的渐近分布和局部近似功效.然后利用Monte Carlo方法研究了检验统计量的性质.最后利用百慕大草地数据说明了检验方法的应用.     

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在广义参数和非参数模型中, 虽然不存在异方差检验问题, 但是方差成分的检验问题仍是研究者们关心的对象. 本文利用P-样条的方法, 研究了广义单指标混合模型的方差成分检验问题. 得到了检验广义单指标混合模型是否存在由随机效应引起的偏大离差问题的Score检验统计量, 最后给出计算机模拟的例子, 证实了文中所提出方法的可行性和有效性, 推广和发展了先前的研究工作     

恰当散度非线性模型变离差的检验

本文研究了恰当散度非线性模型变离差的检验问题.基于似然比统计量和得分统计量,得到变离差的检验.并且用数值例子说明方法是有效的.     

连续型半参数广义线性纵向数据模型的方差成分检验

回归模型的方差成分检验是一个非常重要的问题.该文针对离差参数的变异, 随机效应的影响及两者同时具有的三种情形, 研究了基于纵向数据的连续型半参数广义线性模型的方差成分检验, 得到了Score检验统计量, 最后通过计算机模拟验证了该文所提出的方法的有效性.     

非线性随机效应模型的异方差性检验

随机效应模型广泛应用于刻画重复测量数据的特征．在该模型中,随机误差的方差包括受试群体内部及受试群体之间两项方差．Ｚｈａｎｇ和 Ｗｅｉｓｓ ２０００年研究了线性随机效应模型的异方差检验,本文对非线性随机效应模型,分别讨论了群体内、群体间和多变量的异方差性的检验问题,得到了检验的ｓｃｏｒｅ统计量,并讨论了三种情形下,相应的ｓｃｏｒｅ函数之间的关系．最后给出一个数值例子说明上述方法的有用性．     

过度离散型数据的统计模拟与分析

针对车险索赔次数数据经常出现的过度离散问题,采用数值模拟的方法,分别使用泊松模型(Poisson)、负二项回归模型(NB)以及广义泊松模型(GP)对不同程度的过度离散车险索赔次数数据进行拟合,并用均方误差、偏差以及AIC和BIC准则对Poisson、NB、GP三种模型的优良性进行比较分析,得到了不同条件下三种模型的优良性,并针对不同的条件给出了模型选择的建议.     

Structured additive regression for overdispersed and zero‐inflated count data

In count data regression there can be several problems that prevent the use of the standard Poisson log‐linear model: overdispersion, caused by unobserved heterogeneity or correlation, excess of zeros, non‐linear effects of continuous covariates or of time scales, and spatial effects. We develop Bayesian count data models that can deal with these issues simultaneously and within a unified inferential approach. Models for overdispersed or zero‐inflated data are combined with semiparametrically structured additive predictors, resulting in a rich class of count data regression models. Inference is fully Bayesian and is carried out by computationally efficient MCMC techniques. Simulation studies investigate performance, in particular how well different model components can be identified. Applications to patent data and to data from a car insurance illustrate the potential and, to some extent, limitations of our approach. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the credibility of insurance claim frequency: Generalized count models and parametric estimators

We analyze the concept of credibility in claim frequency in two generalized count models–Mittag-Leffler and Weibull count models–which can handle both underdispersion and overdispersion in count data and nest the commonly used Poisson model as a special case. We find evidence, using data from a Danish insurance company, that the simple Poisson model can set the credibility weight to one even when there are only three years of individual experience data resulting from large heterogeneity among policyholders, and in doing so, it can thus break down the credibility model. The generalized count models, on the other hand, allow the weight to adjust according to the number of years of experience available. We propose parametric estimators for the structural parameters in the credibility formula using the mean and variance of the assumed distributions and a maximum likelihood estimation over a collective data. As an example, we show that the proposed parameters from Mittag-Leffler provide weights that are consistent with the idea of credibility. A simulation study is carried out investigating the stability of the maximum likelihood estimates from the Weibull count model. Finally, we extend the analyses to multidimensional lines and explain how our approach can be used in selecting profitable customers in cross-selling; customers can now be selected by estimating a function of their unknown risk profiles, which is the mean of the assumed distribution on their number of claims.     

广义泊松回归模型的推广及其在医疗保险中应用

计数数据往往存在过离散(over-dispersed)即方差大于均值特征,若利用传统的泊松回归模型拟合数据往往会导致其参数的标准误差被低估,显著性水平被高估的错误结论。负二项回归模型、广义泊松回归模型通常被用来处理过离散特征数据。本文以两类广义泊松回归模型GP-1和GP-2模型为基础,将其推广为更为一般的GP-P形式,其中P为参数。此时,P=1或P=2,GP-P模型就退化为GP-1和GP-2模型。文中最后利用此类推广的GP-P模型处理了一组医疗保险数据,并与泊松回归模型、负二项回归模型拟合结果进行了比较。结果表明,推广后的GP-P模型的拟合效果更优。     

Modelling heavy-tailedness in count time series

Count data frequently exhibit overdispersion, zero inflation and even heavy-tailedness (the tail probabilities are non-negligible or decrease very slowly) in practical applications. Many models have been proposed for modelling count data with overdispersion and zero inflation, but heavy-tailedness is less considered. The proposed model, a new integer-valued autoregressive process with generalized Poisson-inverse Gaussian innovations, is capable of capturing these features. The generalized Poisson-inverse Gaussian family is very flexible, which includes Poisson distribution, Poisson inverse Gaussian distribution, discrete stable distribution and so on. Stationarity and ergodicity of this model are investigated and the expressions of marginal mean and variance are provided. Conditional maximum likelihood is used for estimating the parameters, and consistency and asymptotic normality for the estimators are presented. Further, we consider the h-step forecast and diagnostics for the proposed model. The proposed model is applied to three real data examples. In the first example, we consider the monthly number of cases of Polio, which validates that the proposed model can take into account count data with excessive zeros. Then, we illustrate the use of the proposed model through an application to the numbers of National Science Foundation fundings. Finally, we apply the proposed model to the numbers of transactions in 5-min intervals for the stock traded at Empire District Electric Company. The second and third examples show that the proposed model has a good performance in modelling heavy-tailed count data.     

Modeling overdispersed or underdispersed count data with generalized Poisson integer-valued GARCH models

Overdispersion in time series of counts is very common and has been well studied by many authors, but the opposite phenomenon of underdispersion may also be encountered in real applications and receives little attention. Based on popularity of the generalized Poisson distribution in regression count models and of Poisson INGARCH models in time series analysis, we introduce a generalized Poisson INGARCH model, which can account for both overdispersion and underdispersion. Compared with the double Poisson INGARCH model, conditions for the existence and ergodicity of such a process are easily given. We analyze the autocorrelation structure and also derive expressions for moments of order 1 and 2. We consider the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters and establish their consistency and asymptotic normality. We apply the proposed model to one overdispersed real example and one underdispersed real example, respectively, which indicates that the proposed methodology performs better than other conventional model-based methods in the literature.     

Regression Models for Multivariate Count Data

Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of overdispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly because they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

On the Positive Definiteness of the Information Matrix Under the Binary and Poisson Mixed Models

Binary and Poisson generalized linear mixed models are used to analyse over/under-dispersed proportion and count data, respectively. As the positive definiteness of the information matrix is a required property for valid inference about the fixed regression vector and the variance components of the random effects, this paper derives the relevant necessary and sufficient conditions under both these models. It is found that the conditions for the positive definiteness are not identical for these two nonlinear mixed models and that a mere analogy with the usual linear mixed model does not dictate these conditions.     

Recursive partition and amalgamation with the exponential family: Theory and applications

The theory of tree-growing (RECPAM approach) is developed for outcome variables which are distributed as the canonical exponential family. The general RECPAM approach (consisting of three steps: recursive partition, pruning and amalgamation), is reviewed. This is seen as constructing a partition with maximal information content about a parameter to be predicted, followed by simplification by the elimination of ‘negligible’ information. The measure of information is defined for an exponential family outcome as a deviance difference, and appropriate modifications of pruning and amalgamation rules are discussed. It is further shown how the proposed approach makes it possible to develop tree-growing for situations usually treated by generalized linear models (GLIM). In particular, Poisson and logistic regression can be tree-structured. Moreover, censored survival data can be treated, as in GLIM, by observing a formal equivalence of the likelihood under random censoring and an appropriate Poisson model. Three examples are given of application to Poisson, binary and censored survival data.