一种新型强相对论自由电子准光脉塞的动力学理论

提出一种新型准光学谐振系统——改型斜旋转轴对称准光腔(MAQCOR),并从Vlasov-Maxwell方程出发,采用Laplace积分变换的方法建立了具有MAQCOR的强相对论电子回旋脉塞的动力学理论.导出了注-波互作用功率、起振电流和频偏,并对一些重要问题,如高次谐波、模式竞争、旋转角的影响及空间电荷效应等进行了详细的分析和讨论,得出了一系列新的结论,为新型准光腔回旋管的设计提供了理论依据.     

ARIMA模型在深圳GDP预测中的应用

对1979至2006年深圳国内生产总值进行了分析,建立了ARIMA(1,2,2)模型,检验结果表明该模型具有较好的预测效果,可为深圳制定经济发展目标提供决策参考.     

光传送网的建模与拓扑规划

光传送网是指在光域内实现业务信号的传送、复用、路由选择、监控的传送网络.由于其具有大容量、高可靠性和低能耗的优点,光传送网在全球通信中扮演着至关重要的作用.因此对光传送网的链路进行准确建模,从而制定网络规划至关重要.研究了光传送网的三个重要问题,并对问题进行了数学建模与模型求解.首先依据经典的调制编码格式建立了光传送网的链路传送模型,并对其传输性能进行了度量;然后以网络价值最大化原则,从不同方面为我国城市群制定网络价值最优化的规划方案;最后对经典调制编码格式进行了改进,提出容噪能力更强的新型调制编码方案.对上述模型进行了仿真求解,建模与规划算法取得了较好的实验效果.     

基于多元统计方法的居民健康体检数据危险因素分析

以邯郸市体检中心2014年居民的健康体检数据为依据,随机抽取了32281名居民的健康体检数据,分析了影响居民健康的危险因素,为有效的了解和掌握邯郸市居民健康状况提供帮助,为健康指导、健康干预策略的制定提供科学依据.     

基于ARIMA模型的山东省GDP的分析与预测

对1975-2015年山东省国内生产总值进行分析,运用统计学原理,建立了ARIMA(1,1,1)模型,检验结果表明该模型具有良好的预测效果,可为山东制定经济发展目标提供决策参考.     

基于灰色关联的天津宏观经济分析

将灰色系统的关联分析法应用于天津的宏观经济分析.将天津与周边省市及我国各地区具有代表性城市的宏观经济指标构成研究序列,采用人均国内生产总值、人均第二产业总产值和人均第三产业总产值为系统特征指标,分别建立指标体系并进行了灰色关联分析,根据结论分析了当前天津市宏观经济状况,探索天津市经济发展机制,并为天津市制定未来经济发展规划提供科学依据.     

具有标准发生率的网络谣言传播模型稳定性研究

将网民分为无知者、传谣者和智者三类,建立了一类具有标准发生率的谣言模型,应用动力学理论和方法研究了谣言模型稳定性分析,并借助计算机数值模拟讨论了如何通过控制参数以达到控制谣言传播的策略.结果表明,只有当“智者”的公信力比较高,广大网民在智者的影响下对谣言具有辨识能力,且不信谣、不传谣,最终将使谣言销声匿迹,传谣者移出系统.这将为管理者制定舆论控制决策提供科学依据.     

考虑加工速率相互干扰的平行机调度最优策略研究

随着智能互联网的应用深入、个性化消费时代的来临,制造服务企业开始注重利用网络平台为客户提供个性化的定制服务,在此过程中派生出了产品设计师可与多名客户在线同步交互的一种新型服务模式。本文根据设计师服务效率受并行服务客户数量影响的特征,将问题刻画为机器处理速度相互影响的一类平行机调度模型,以最小化总完工时间为优化目标,研究设计最优调度方案。首先,对于只有两名设计师且各自同时处理最多两个任务的情形,提出了改进的SPT调度规则,运用归纳法证明了该规则可以生成最优加工方案。其次,对改进的SPT规则进行任务分配方式的适当松驰以便更加易于操作,并证明松驰后的新分配方案保持了解的最优性。最后,将相关结论推广至多名设计师的一般情形。上述研究为个性化在线定制服务模式下的有效调度策略制定提供了良好的理论支撑。     

北京区域经济状况分析

以区域经济为出发点 ,制定相应指标衡量体系 ,采用基于时序立体表的因素分析方法———全局主成分分析方法 ,对北京市四大区域的数据进行经济、社会状况分析 ,研究比较不同区域间的经济发展水平、资源优势以及城市对农村的辐射和渗透作用 ,为北京市制定平衡发展战略提供了量化依据     

我国上市公司审计费用率模型研究

通过研究2001年、2002年我国证券市场A股年度财务报告审计费用、审计费用率得出:年报审计费用与资产规模显著正相关,审计费用率与资产规模显著负相关;资产规模对审计费用率的解释度在71%以上。建立的审计费用率与资产规模的关系模型ROF=αAsset-β,为物价部门制定审计服务价格提供了客观依据,也为证券监管部门、行业主管部门和学术界进行行业监管或审计独立性研究具有参考价值。     

基于灰色系统理论的空军装备维修保障费用预测模型

随着空军武器装备的迅猛发展,维修保障在装备战斗力形成和发挥中的地位与作用越来越重要.运用灰色系统理论,科学确定装备维修保障需求,使维修保障系统建设与武器装备发展需求相协调,维修保障能力与装备作战需要相适应,不断满足现代高技术条件下军事斗争准备对维修保障的需求.     

Selective maintenance for support equipment involving multiple maintenance actions

Selective maintenance is the process of identifying a subset among sets of desirable maintenance actions. Previous works use mathematical programming models for making selective maintenance decisions for production equipment and military vehicles, which perform sequences of missions and are repaired only between missions. In this paper, extensions of these models are proposed. First, system component life is assumed to follow Weibull distributions. Second, the decision-maker is given multiple maintenance options: minimal repair on failed components, replacement of failed components, and replacement of functioning components (preventive maintenance).     

Reliability-centred maintenance analysis for a complex military system

The preventive-maintenance (PM) programme is a very importantdocument in the life cycle of a piece of equipment or system.The traditional method used within China to determine PM programmeshas many disadvantages, and some tasks in old programmes haveproved to be unnecessary. Through analysing a complex militarysystem (X system) by means of the reliability-centred maintenance(RCM) analysis, it is found that RCM analysis is more successfulthan the traditional method in deciding the PM programme. Thenew PM programme does not include unnecessary PM tasks includedin the old programme. Thus the performance of the X system isenhanced, because the cost is reduced without compromising availability.It is believed that RCM analysis in military industry will makea valuable contribution to the maintenance of weapon systemsand equipment.     

Optimizing reliability and service parts logistics for a time-varying installed base

Performance based contracting (PBC) emerges as a new after-sales service practice to support the operation and maintenance of capital equipment or systems. Under the PBC framework, the goal of the study is to increase the system operational availability while minimizing the logistics footprint through the design for reliability. We consider the situation where the number of installed systems randomly increases over the planning horizon, resulting in a non-stationary maintenance and repair demand. Renewal equation and Poisson process are used to estimate the aggregate fleet failures. We propose a dynamic stocking policy that adaptively replenishes the inventory to meet the time-varying parts demand. An optimization model is formulated and solved under a multi-phase adaptive inventory control policy. The study provides theoretical insights into the performance-driven service operation in the context of changing system fleet size due to new installations. Trade-offs between reliability design and inventory level are examined and compared in various shipment scenarios. Numerical examples drawn from semiconductor equipment industry are used to demonstrate the applicability and the performance of the proposed method.     

军用飞机维修质量管理的最优线性分派评估

在军机维修工作中,科学有效的管理,对及时完成维修任务,保障训练作战计划至关重要.在建立适合我军军机维修质量评估指标体系的基础上,定义了理想方案和贴近度,给出了排序频数的计算方法,进而将军机维修质量评估问题转化为最优线性分派问题来处理,从而为军机维修质量管理提供了一种科学、可靠的决策方法.     

The Decision to Repair or Scrap a Machine

A simple algebraic formula for combining repair data with prior experience determines the time when a machine should be replaced in order to minimize the expected cost of equipment purchase and maintenance. A random sample from an exponential distribution represents the cost of each repair, and a time-dependent Poisson process represents the intervals between repairs. Bayes' formula provides the basis for combining data with previous judgement about the characteristics of the equipment. Automobile maintenance records support the basic assumptions of the model, and illustrate the method of deciding when to scrap a given machine.     

配电设备实时故障风险评估方法

现有配电设备故障风险评估方法在因素分析方面不够全面,未能综合考虑天气等环境因素与设备健康状态因素对设备故障风险的影响,且数据来源主要为长期历史数据,缺乏时效性。为解决此问题,本文提出了一种配电设备实时故障风险评估方法,结合天气状况、设备状态两大因素计算配电设备实时故障概率,通过负荷损失量、停电用户数量、负荷重要等级三个因素评估配电设备故障影响程度,并以设备故障概率和故障影响程度为准则建立风险评估模型。通过IEEE-RBTS BUS2算例分析,证明该模型能够有效评估配电设备实时故障风险,对于电力企业优化设备检修工作,提升应急管理水平具有重要的指导意义。     

Utilization and maintenance in a model with scrapping

We consider a productive asset, called equipment or capital good, and we examine the properties of, as well as the interactions between, the operating policies, which are determined by its optimal utilization and maintenance, and the capital policy of scrapping, which defines the optimal time when the productive asset is retired from its current use. Starting with an abstract model and using the approach of optimal control, initially we characterize the various types of equipment by assigning to them a single total profit index, which indicates how the above policies affect the flow of operating revenues plus capital gains or losses. This index is a function of market-determined prices. So using it we then investigate how the operating and capital policies are influenced by the rate of discount, the price of new equipment, and the rise or fall of the price of new equipment relative to the value of its output. Among other interesting results, we find that the effects of these prices on the nature and interactions of optimal policies depend crucially on whether the equipment is of the usual profit making type, where output is the main source of revenue, or of the antique type, where the main source of revenue is capital gains.     

装备维修器材生产路径双目标问题优化决策方法研究

在装备维修器材供应保障中,针对精确保障背景下部队用户对器材保障精度的要求,构建了最小化总成本和最大化订单精准执行率的双目标优化决策模型。在ε-约束法框架内,开发可生成近似Pareto前沿的两阶迭代启发式算法,并采用模糊逻辑决策法选择符合决策者偏好的折中最优解。随机实例测试结果表明所提出的模型和算法可以很好地应用在双目标优化问题的研究中,并在求解不同规模实例时表现出优异的性能。     

A model for maintenance service contract design,negotiation and optimization

A model is presented in this paper for maintenance service contract design, negotiation and optimization. The model was developed under the assumption that there are one customer and one unique service provider who is the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) and is called the agent in this paper. This is typically applied to the situation where the OEM is the only possible service supplier such as in the case of major military equipment in the defense sector. Three contract options were considered, depending on the extent of outsourced maintenance activities. From an agent point of view, they are, (1), the agent carries out all repairs and inspections; (2), the agent carries out failure based repairs, and (3), the agent does inspections and repairs to the defects identified at inspections. For options two and three, the customer does the rest of maintenance. The relationship between inspections and failures was modeled using the delay time concept and a numerical example was illustrated. The cases of perfect information to both parties and information asymmetry were also discussed in the example. The model developed can be used for contract design, negotiation and optimization.