多机制半参数平滑转换回归模型——兼论我国宏观经济运行周期

本文结合多机制平滑转换回归模型和半参数平滑转换回归模型,提出多机制半参数平滑转换回归模型。对模型转换函数中的未知光滑有界函数采用级数估计,并给出了结合Back-fitting算法和非线性最小二乘法估计模型参数的具体执行步骤,随机模拟结果说明了本文模型和估计算法的可行性和灵活性。应用本文模型和估计算法对我国宏观经济运行周期的实证研究表明,我国经济增长的非线性结构可以分为四个显著不同的增长机制:扩张阶段、衰退阶段、收缩阶段、恢复阶段,并且宏观经济政策的作用有三到四个季度的迟滞效应。     

Nonparametric regression with interval-censored data

In many medical studies,the prevalence of interval censored data is increasing due to periodic monitoring of the progression status of a disease.In nonparametric regression model,when the response variable is subjected to interval-censoring,the regression function could not be estimated by traditional methods directly.With the censored data,we construct a new response variable which has the same conditional expectation as the original one.Based on the new variable,we get a nearest neighbor estimator of the regression function.It is established that the estimator has strong consistency and asymptotic normality.The relevant simulation reports are given.     

一类纵向数据半参数模型估计的收敛速度

本文研究了一类纵向数据半参数模型参数和回归函数的估计问题.利用最小二乘法和一般的非参数权函数方法,获得了参数估计量的强收敛速度和回归函数估计量的一致收敛速度,推广了文献[4]的相应结果.     

Penalized maximum likelihood estimation of a stochastic multivariate regression model

We study the large-sample properties of the penalized maximum likelihood estimator of a multivariate stochastic regression model with contemporaneously correlated data. The penalty is in terms of the square norm of some (vector) linear function of the regression coefficients. The model subsumes the so-called common transfer function model useful for extracting common signals in a panel of short time series. We show that, under mild regularity conditions, the penalized maximum likelihood estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. The asymptotic bias of the regression coefficient estimator is also derived.     

Bernstein Polynomial Estimation in the Partially Linear Model under Monotonicity Constraints

In this paper, a Bernstein-polynomial-based likelihood method is proposed for the partially linear model under monotonicity constraints. Monotone Bernstein polynomials are employed to approximate the monotone nonparametric function in the model. The estimator of the regression parameter is shown to be asymptotically normal and efficient, and the rate of convergence of the estimator of the nonparametric component is established, which could be the optimal under the smooth assumptions. A simulation study and a real data analysis are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed method.     

The rate of convergence of the least squares estimator in a non-linear regression model with dependent errors

The rate of convergence of the least squares estimator in a non-linear regression model with errors forming either a φ-mixing or strong mixing process is obtained. Strong consistency of the least squares estimator is obtained as a corollary.     

纵向数据下半参数回归模型估计的收敛速度

考虑纵向数据下半参数回归模型:yij=x′ijβ+g(tij)+eij,i=1,…,n,j=1,…,mi.基于最小二乘法和一般的非参数权函数方法给出了模型中参数β和回归函数g(·)的估计,并在适当条件下证明了参数分量β的估计量的强收敛速度和未知函数g(·)的估计量的一致强收敛速度.     

Efficient estimation for semiparametric varying- coefficient partially linear regression models with current status data

This article considers a semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear regression model with current status data. The semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear regression model which is a generalization of the partially linear regression model and varying-coefficient regression model that allows one to explore the possibly nonlinear effect of a certain covariate on the response variable. A Sieve maximum likelihood estimation method is proposed and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are discussed. Under some mild conditions, the estimators are shown to be strongly consistent. The convergence rate of the estimator for the unknown smooth function is obtained and the estimator for the unknown parameter is shown to be asymptotically efficient and normally distributed. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the small-sample properties of the proposed estimates and a real dataset is used to illustrate our approach.     

Functional-coefficient partially linear regression model

In this paper, the functional-coefficient partially linear regression (FCPLR) model is proposed by combining nonparametric and functional-coefficient regression (FCR) model. It includes the FCR model and the nonparametric regression (NPR) model as its special cases. It is also a generalization of the partially linear regression (PLR) model obtained by replacing the parameters in the PLR model with some functions of the covariates. The local linear technique and the integrated method are employed to give initial estimators of all functions in the FCPLR model. These initial estimators are asymptotically normal. The initial estimator of the constant part function shares the same bias as the local linear estimator of this function in the univariate nonparametric model, but the variance of the former is bigger than that of the latter. Similarly, initial estimators of every coefficient function share the same bias as the local linear estimates in the univariate FCR model, but the variance of the former is bigger than that of the latter. To decrease the variance of the initial estimates, a one-step back-fitting technique is used to obtain the improved estimators of all functions. The improved estimator of the constant part function has the same asymptotic normality property as the local linear nonparametric regression for univariate data. The improved estimators of the coefficient functions have the same asymptotic normality properties as the local linear estimates in FCR model. The bandwidths and the smoothing variables are selected by a data-driven method. Both simulated and real data examples related to nonlinear time series modeling are used to illustrate the applications of the FCPLR model.     

Nonparametric Regression with Singular Design

Theories of nonparametric regression are usually based on the assumption that the design density exists. However, in some applications such as those involving high-dimensional or chaotic time series data, the design measure may be singular and may be likely to have a fractal (nonintegral) dimension. In this paper, the popular Nadaraya–Watson estimator is studied under the general setup that the continuity of the design measure is governed by the local or pointwise dimension. It will be shown in the iid setup that the nonparametric regression estimator achieves a convergence rate which is dependent only on the pointwise dimension. The case of time series data is also studied. For the latter case, a new mixing condition is introduced, and an assumption of marginal or joint density is completely avoided. Three examples, a fractal regression and two applications for predicting chaotic time series, are used to illustrate the implications of the obtained results.     

Asymptotic Properties of a Nonparametric Regression Function Estimator with Randomly Truncated Data

In this paper, we define a new kernel estimator of the regression function under a left truncation model. We establish the pointwise and uniform strong consistency over a compact set and give a rate of convergence of the estimate. The pointwise asymptotic normality of the estimate is also given. Some simulations are given to show the asymptotic behavior of the estimate in different cases. The distribution function and the covariable’s density are also estimated.     

删失数据回归误差项的非参数密度估计的一致相合性(英文)

回归误差项是不可观测的. 由于回归误差项的密度函数在实际中有许多应用, 故使用非参数方法对其进行估计就成为回归分析中的一个基本问题. 针对完全观测数据回归模型, 曾有作者对此问题进行了研究. 然而在实际应用中, 经常会有数据被删失的情况发生, 在此情况下, 可以利用删失回归残差, 并使用核估计的方法对回归误差项的密度函数进行估计. 本文研究了该估计的大样本性质, 并证明了估计量的一致相合性.     

Nonparametric regression with warped wavelets and strong mixing processes

We consider the situation of a univariate nonparametric regression where either the Gaussian error or the predictor follows a stationary strong mixing stochastic process and the other term follows an independent and identically distributed sequence. Also, we estimate the regression function by expanding it in a wavelet basis and applying a hard threshold to the coefficients. Since the observations of the predictor are unequally distant from each other, we work with wavelets warped by the density of the predictor variable. This choice enables us to retain some theoretical and computational properties of wavelets. We propose a unique estimator and show that some of its properties are the same for both model specifications. Specifically, in both cases the coefficients are unbiased and their variances decay at the same rate. Also the risk of the estimator, measured by the mean integrated square error is almost minimax and its maxiset remains unaltered. Simulations and an application illustrate the similarities and differences of the proposed estimator in both situations.

     

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This paper concerns with the estimation of a fixed effects panel data partially linear regression model with the idiosyncratic errors being an autoregressive process. For fixed effects short time series panel data, the commonly used autoregressive error structure fitting method will not result in a consistent estimator of the autoregressive coefficients. Here we propose an alternative estimation and show that the resulting estimator of the autoregressive coefficients is consistent and this method is workable for any order autoregressive error structure. Moreover, combining the B-spline approximation, profile least squares dummy variable (PLSDV) technique and consistently estimated the autoregressive error structure, we develop a weighted PLSDV estimator for the parametric component and a weighted B-spline series (BS) estimator for the nonparametric component. The weighted PLSDV estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal and more asymptotically efficient than the one which ignores the error autoregressive structure. In addition, this paper derives the asymptotic bias of the weighted BS estimator and establish its asymptotic normality as well. Simulation studies and an example of application are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed procedures.     

Asymptotic distributions of two “synthetic data” estimators for censored single-index models

The censored single-index model provides a flexible way for modelling the association between a response and a set of predictor variables when the response variable is randomly censored and the link function is unknown. It presents a technique for “dimension reduction” in semiparametric censored regression models and generalizes the existing accelerated failure time models for survival analysis. This paper proposes two methods for estimation of single-index models with randomly censored samples. We first transform the censored data into synthetic data or pseudo-responses unbiasedly, then obtain estimates of the index coefficients by the rOPG or rMAVE procedures of Xia (2006) [1]. Finally, we estimate the unknown nonparametric link function using techniques for univariate censored nonparametric regression. The estimators for the index coefficients are shown to be root-n consistent and asymptotically normal. In addition, the estimator for the unknown regression function is a local linear kernel regression estimator and can be estimated with the same efficiency as the parameters are known. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

Hazard Rate Estimation in Nonparametric Regression with Censored Data

Consider a regression model in which the responses are subject to random right censoring. In this model, Beran studied the nonparametric estimation of the conditional cumulative hazard function and the corresponding cumulative distribution function. The main idea is to use smoothing in the covariates. Here we study asymptotic properties of the corresponding hazard function estimator obtained by convolution smoothing of Beran's cumulative hazard estimator. We establish asymptotic expressions for the bias and the variance of the estimator, which together with an asymptotic representation lead to a weak convergence result. Also, the uniform strong consistency of the estimator is obtained.     

Robust Depth-Weighted Wavelet for Nonparametric Regression Models

In the nonparametric regression models, the original regression estimators including kernel estimator, Fourier series estimator and wavelet estimator are always constructed by the weighted sum of data, and the weights depend only on the distance between the design points and estimation points. As a result these estimators are not robust to the perturbations in data. In order to avoid this problem, a new nonparametric regression model, called the depth-weighted regression model, is introduced and then the depth-weighted wavelet estimation is defined. The new estimation is robust to the perturbations in data, which attains very high breakdown value close to 1/2. On the other hand, some asymptotic behaviours such as asymptotic normality are obtained. Some simulations illustrate that the proposed wavelet estimator is more robust than the original wavelet estimator and, as a price to pay for the robustness, the new method is slightly less efficient than the original method.     

Optimal global rate of convergence in nonparametric regression with left-truncated and right-censored data

In this paper we consider nonparametric regression with left-truncated and right-censored data. An estimator of the regression function is developed when censoring and truncation are independent of covariates and the response. The estimation is based on the product limit estimator of the response variable. Under certain conditions, the L₂ rate of convergence of the estimated regression function is obtained when tensor products of B-splines are used.     

Multivariate Failure Times Regression with a Continuous Auxiliary Covariate

How to take advantage of the available auxiliary covariate information when the primary covariate of interest is not measured is a frequently encountered question in biomedical study. In this paper, we consider the multivariate failure times regression analysis in which the primary covariate is assessed only in a validation set, but a continuous auxiliary covariate for it is available for all subjects in the study cohort. Under the frame of marginal hazard model, we propose to estimate the induced relative risk function in the non-validation set through kernel smoothing method and then obtain an estimated pseudo-partial likelihood function. The proposed estimator which maximizes the estimated pseudo-partial likelihood is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. We also give an estimator of the marginal cumulative baseline hazard function. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of our proposed estimator. The proposed method is illustrated by analyzing a heart disease data from the Study of Left Ventricular Dysfunction (SOLVD).     

Location estimation in nonparametric regression with censored data

Consider the heteroscedastic model Y=m(X)+σ(X)?, where ? and X are independent, Y is subject to right censoring, m(·) is an unknown but smooth location function (like e.g. conditional mean, median, trimmed mean…) and σ(·) an unknown but smooth scale function. In this paper we consider the estimation of m(·) under this model. The estimator we propose is a Nadaraya-Watson type estimator, for which the censored observations are replaced by ‘synthetic’ data points estimated under the above model. The estimator offers an alternative for the completely nonparametric estimator of m(·), which cannot be estimated consistently in a completely nonparametric way, whenever high quantiles of the conditional distribution of Y given X=x are involved.We obtain the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator of m(x) and study its finite sample behaviour in a simulation study. The method is also applied to a study of quasars in astronomy.