Sequential change-point detection for mixing random sequences under composite hypotheses

The problem of sequential detection of a change-point in the density function of one-dimensional distribution of observations from a mixing random sequence is considered when both before and after a change-point this density function belongs to a certain family of distributions, i.e. in the situation of composite hypotheses. A new quality criterion for change-point detection is proposed. The asymptotic a priori lower bound for this criterion is proved for wide class of methods of change-point detection. An asymptotically optimal method of change-point detection is proposed for which this lower bound is attained asymptotically. In particular, for the case of a simple hypothesis before a change-point, this method coincides with the generalized cumulative sums (CUSUM) method.      

ARCH过程的均值变点估计

研究ARCH过程的均值变点估计.在较弱的条件下证明了变点估计的一致性,并得到了估计的收敛率;为构造变点的置信区间给出了变点的极限分布.模拟结果表明方法的有效性.     

On Mean Change-Point Detection Based on Empirical Euclidean Likelihood

Mean chage-point detection is the groundwork in statistics. The trimmed empirical Euclidean likelihood ratio function is constructed based on the features of change-point in mean model. And the explicit expression is derived. The null limit distribution of the test statistic is investigated with extreme value distribution. And the change-point detection is made. if the change-point exists, it's location and consistency are discussed. Simulations and real analysis of Nile River data show that our proposed method is practicable and effective.     

线性过程方差变点的平方累计和SCUSUM估计(英文)

This paper considers the estimation problem of a variance change-point in linear process.Consistency of a SCUSUM type change-point estimator is proved and its rate of convergence is established.The mean-unknown case is also considered.     

Bootstrapping the change-point of a hazard rate

This paper concerns the asymptotic validity of the bootstrap method in a non-regular model. Specifically, it is shown that the parametric bootstrap of the change-point parameter in the change-point hazard rate model works.     

On a multi-channel change-point problem

A continuous change-point problem is studied in which N independent diffusion processes X _j are observed. Each process X _j is associated with a “channel”, each has an unknown piecewise constant drift and the unit diffusion coefficient. All the channels are connected only by a common change-point of drift. As the result, a change-point problem is defined in which the unknown and unidentifiable drift forms a 2N-dimensional nuisance parameter. The asymptotics of the minimax rate in estimating the change-point is studied as N → ∞. This rate is compared with the case of the known drift. This problem is a special case of an open change-point detection problem in the high-dimensional diffusion with nonparametric drift.      

Asymptotic Distribution of the Jump Change-Point Estimator

The asymptotic distribution of the change-point estimator in a jump changepoint model is considered.For the jump change-point model Xi =a + θI{[nTo] ＜ i ≤n} + εi,where εi (i =1,…,n) are independent ide...     

Exploring the latent segmentation space for the assessment of multiple change-point models

This paper addresses the retrospective or off-line multiple change-point detection problem. Multiple change-point models are here viewed as latent structure models and the focus is on inference concerning the latent segmentation space. Methods for exploring the space of possible segmentations of a sequence for a fixed number of change points may be divided into two categories: (i) enumeration of segmentations, (ii) summary of the possible segmentations in change-point or segment profiles. Concerning the first category, a dynamic programming algorithm for computing the top $N$ most probable segmentations is derived. Concerning the second category, a forward-backward dynamic programming algorithm and a smoothing-type forward-backward algorithm for computing two types of change-point and segment profiles are derived. The proposed methods are mainly useful for exploring the segmentation space for successive numbers of change points and provide a set of assessment tools for multiple change-point models that can be applied both in a non-Bayesian and a Bayesian framework. We show using examples that the proposed methods may help to compare alternative multiple change-point models (e.g. Gaussian model with piecewise constant variances or global variance), predict supplementary change points, highlight overestimation of the number of change points and summarize the uncertainty concerning the position of change points.     

位置参数变点的非参数检验及其渐近性质

本文基于Ｕ－统计量,对于位置参数模型,讨论了位置参数变点的检验问题,给出了检验统计量并研究它的分市的极限性质,证明了检验统计量的极限分布是ｓｕｐ|Ｂ(ｔ)|,其中{Ｂ(ｔ),０＜ｔ＜１}是一个Ｂｒｏｗｎ桥．将此结果应用到了双参数指数分布和Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布尺度参数变点的检验问题中．     

艾拉姆咖分布参数变点的Bayes估计

研究了艾拉姆咖分布变点估计的非迭代抽样算法(IBF)和MCMC算法.在贝叶斯框架下,选取无信息先验分布,得到关于变点位置的后验分布和各参数的满条件分布,并且详细介绍了IBF算法和MCMC方法的实施步骤.最后进行随机模拟试验,结果表明两种算法都能够有效的估计变点位置,并且IBF算法的计算速度优于MCMC方法.     

Asymptotics for increments of stopped renewal processes

Motivated by our earlier work on change-point analysis we prove a number of limit theorems for increments of renewal counting processes, or the corresponding first passage times. The starting point of the increments is deterministic as well as random, a typical example being the first stopping time to detect a change-point of some (continuously) observed process.     

On the mode-change problem for random measures

The classical change-point problem in modern terms, i.e., the mode-change problem, is stated for sufficiently general set-indexed random processes, namely for random measures. A method is shown for solving this problem both in the general form and for the intensity of compound Poisson random measures. The results obtained are novel for the change-point problem, too.     

短样本多指标动态经济数据变点的一种识别方法

本文研究了多指标动态经济数据的变点问题,使用多元分析的方法,给出了在样本长度较短情况下识别变点的一种方法,并用这种方法分析了国民经济统计中的一个实际例子。     

A sequential multiple change-point detection procedure via VIF regression

In this paper, we propose a procedure for detecting multiple change-points in a mean-shift model, where the number of change-points is allowed to increase with the sample size. A theoretic justification for our new method is also given. We first convert the change-point problem into a variable selection problem by partitioning the data sequence into several segments. Then, we apply a modified variance inflation factor regression algorithm to each segment in sequential order. When a segment that is suspected of containing a change-point is found, we use a weighted cumulative sum to test if there is indeed a change-point in this segment. The proposed procedure is implemented in an algorithm which, compared to two popular methods via simulation studies, demonstrates satisfactory performance in terms of accuracy, stability and computation time. Finally, we apply our new algorithm to analyze two real data examples.     

A Bayesian-martingale approach to the general disorder problem

We consider a Bayesian-martingale approach to the general change-point detection problem. In our setting the change-point represents a random time of bifurcation of two probability measures given on the space of right-continuous functions. We derive a reflecting backward stochastic differential equation (RBSDE) for the value process related to the disorder problem and show that in classical cases of the Wiener and Poisson disorder problems this RBSDE is equivalent to free-boundary problems for parabolic differential and differential–difference operators respectively.     

Estimation of a change-point in the mean function of functional data

The paper develops a comprehensive asymptotic theory for the estimation of a change-point in the mean function of functional observations. We consider both the case of a constant change size, and the case of a change whose size approaches zero, as the sample size tends to infinity. We show how the limit distribution of a suitably defined change-point estimator depends on the size and location of the change. The theoretical insights are confirmed by a simulation study which illustrates the behavior of the estimator in finite samples.     

Asymptotics for random functions moderated by dependent noise

We study limit theorems for a wide class of multi-parameter stochastic processes which are driven by a noise process which may be weakly or even long-range dependent. The processes under study arise in diverse areas and fields such as functional data analysis, life science, engineering and finance. It turns out that under fairly weak conditions on the underlying noise process the limiting law of the corresponding partial sum process is a consequence of the weak convergence of the sequential empirical Kiefer process. The asymptotic limit theory covers the classical large sample situation as well as a general change-point model which extends the location-scale model often considered in change-point analysis. The scope of the results is illustrated by various applications.     

基于贝叶斯推断的TAR模型的门限非线性检验

在正态分布的假定下,变点问题按照均值和方差的变化有四种情形.本文把TAR模型门限非线性的检验问题,看作是对应均值变化,方差不变情形下的变点问题.然后利用可逆跳马尔可夫蒙特卡罗模拟(RJMCMC)方法计算两个比较模型(AR和TAR模型)的后验概率.后验概率的结果支持TAR模型表明门限非线性的存在.模拟实验的结果说明基于贝叶斯推断的检验方法可以很好的区分AR和TAR模型.     

当前状态数据下单变点危险率治愈模型的拟极大似然估计

变点危险率模型已受到广泛关注.它不仅可以更加直接地显示治疗效果或医学上的突破,也可以提供这些事件发生的时间点.在这篇文章中,我们提出当前状态数据下的单边点危险率治愈模型并探讨了这个模型的估计方法.我们建立了估计的大样本理论并通过模拟评估有限样本下的估计.     

基于黄金分割法的离散回归方程的变点估计及其应用

本文利用变点统计学和黄金分割法讨论有多个变点的离散回归方程的交点估计和参数估计，文中提出基于黄金分割法搜索最佳变点估计和同时得到参数估计的最小二乘算法，还讨论该算法在控制领域的应用，数值模拟结果显示本文算法能给出良好的变点及参数的估计值。