国内生产总值的一种组合预测方法

对于国内生产总值的预测问题,运用贝叶斯估计方法将主观先验信息、样本拟合区信息和单个模型的预测信息进行了有效综合,导出了三种组合预测方法,并给出了误差方差的估计量.最后是一个应用实例.     

线性数据拟合方法的误差分析及其改进应用

利用最小二乘法进行线性数据拟合在一定条件下存在着误差较大的缺陷,为使线性数据拟合方法在科学实验和工程实践中能够更加准确地求解量与量之间的关系表达式,本文通过对常用线性数据拟合方法———最小二乘法进行了误差分析,并在此基础上提出了最小距离平方和法以对最小二乘法作改进处理.最后,通过举例分析对两种线性数据拟合方法的优劣加以讨论并分别给出其较为合理的应用控制条件.     

基于马氏链拟合的一种非负变权组合预测算法及其应用

通过马氏链拟合的方法求取一种新的非负时变权组合预测算法公式.主要工作是:一、对组合预测问题以最小误差为准则给出了马氏链的状态和状态概率初步估计;二、用马氏链拟合状态概率分布时变规律,通过约束多元自回归模型导出了一步转移概率阵的LS解;三、给出一种非负时变权组合预测公式并举一应用实例.     

物体运动速度对空化噪声的影响

本文对物体空化噪声与运动速度之间的相互关系进行了分忻.结果表明,空化噪声对运动速度存在着极值.     

求解多维背包问题的改进二进制粒子群算法

针对二进制粒子群算法在求解大规模多维背包问题时存在迭代次数过多、精度不高的不足,提出一种改进的二进制粒子群算法,新算法利用种群个体极值的平均信息和粒子的个体极值决定粒子当前取值的概率,使粒子可以充分利用整个种群的信息,避免算法陷入局部极值,并利用贪婪算法对进化过程中的不可行解进行修复,对背包资源利用不足的可行解进行修正.通过对典型多维背包问题的仿真实验和与其它算法的比较,表明算法有良好的全局优化能力和较好的收敛速度.     

基于改进CS优化BP神经网络的降水量预测模型

针对传统BP神经网络易陷入局部极值和连接权值难以确定的问题,提出了一种基于融合PSO(Particle Swarm Optimization)和CS(Cuckoo Search)的混合算法优化设计BP神经网络(PCS-BP)的预测模型.该优化方法主要利用混合算法优秀的全局搜索能力和收敛速度设计优化BP神经网络的连接权值和网络结构,解决了BP神经网络由于参数随机取值引起的网络震荡和过拟合的问题,提高了预测模型的准确性.结合具体实例,分别采用BP神经网络、CS-BP模型和PCS-BP模型对汉中地区的月降水量进行预测,实验结果表明,PCS-BP的平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.3966,均方根误差(RMSE)为2.3793,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为0.46%,均优于其他模型,具有较好的预测能力.     

可变动能打击武器系统外弹道解算

动能弹丸在空气中的运动过程十分复杂,近似属于刚体的一般运动,由于弹丸结构形状不是标准弹,枪膛内无膛线,弹丸飞行时不会产生绕其弹轴的转动运动,进行弹丸外弹道研究时,实际上只是对弹丸的平动运动进行分析计算和研究.利用以飞行距离x为自变量的自然坐标系质心运动方程组,通过引入假速度及西亚切替代对动能弹外弹道进行了解算,反向计算得出的恒量动能打击不同距离的有生目标对应的动能弹丸理想枪口初速.     

基于Gauss全局径向基函数的近岸浅水变形波高数值计算新方法

应用Gauss全局径向基函数来模拟波浪浅水变形波高变化方程中的未知函数,经实例分析探讨得到了一种可用于求解该方程数值解的新方法,并将其计算结果与常用数值分析方法得到的数值解相互对比印证,证明了基于Gauss全局径向基函数法计算结果的正确性.经验证,Gauss径向基函数法的平均计算误差相比其他方法均要小,表明该方法拥有更高的计算精度.同时,根据Gauss全局径向基函数的逼近结果,得出了浅水变形波高变化微分方程数值解的拟合函数,在实际工程中,可以利用该拟合函数来代替原方程的解析解,研究成果可为求解近岸浅水区域波浪运动提供一种新思路.     

优化MGM(1,n)模型及其应用研究

从最小二乘估计的适用条件出发,在建立MGM(1,n)模型前,先采用BoxCox变换对原始数据进行变换,以解决或缓解误差项的正态性偏离问题.首先,以模型拟合平均误差最小化为目标,建立非线性优化模型,在参数的置信区间内,应用PSO(Particle Swarm Optimization)算法求最优解.然后,应用求解得到的参数,建立优化MGM(1,n)模型.在实例分析中,将优化MGM(1,n)模型应用于深基坑围护结构变形预测,实验结果表明通过对原始数据做合适的Box-Cox变换,能够有效提高模型的拟合及预测精度,拓广多变量灰色预测模型的适用范围.     

评定精度的最大残差法

本文研究了评定测量精度的最大残差法,它可以简单迅速可靠地算出评定精度所需的均方根误差σ.文中研究了最大残差的分布和最大残差分布函数与数字特征的计算.最后举例介绍了最大残差的应用。     

RECENT PROGRESS ON SPHERICAL HARMONIC APPROXIMATION MADE BY BNU RESEARCH GROUP ——In memory of Professor Sun Yongsheng

As early as in 1990, Professor Sun Yongsheng, suggested his students at Beijing Normal University to consider research problems on the unit sphere. Under his guidance and encouragement his students started the research on spherical harmonic analysis and approximation. In this paper, we incompletely introduce the main achievements in this area obtained by our group and relative researchers during recent 5 years （2001-2005）. The main topics are： convergence of Cesaro summability, a.e. and strong summability of Fourier-Laplace series; smoothness and K-functionals; Kolmogorov and linear widths.     

A unified approach to certain problems of best local approximation

In this paper we study best local quasi-rational approximation and best local approximation from finite dimensional subspaces of vectorial functions of several variables. Our approach extends and unifies several problems concerning best local multi-point approximation in different norms.     

Boundedness for commutators of multipliers on Hardy type spaces

In this paper, we study the commutators generalized by multipliers and a BMO function. Under some assumptions, we establish its boundedness properties from certain atomic Hardy space Hb^p（R^n） into the Lebesgue space L^p with p 〈 1.     

THE 8~(th) INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON INDUSTRIAL AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS

<正>August 10-14,2015Beijing,ChinaThe International Congress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics(ICIAM)is the premier international congress in the field of applied mathematics held every four years under the auspices of the International Council for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.From August 10 to 14,2015,mathematicians,scientists     

Towards Excellence in Science Chinese Academy of Sciences

<正>May 26,2014,Beijing Science is a human enterprise in the pursuit of knowledge.The scientific revolution that occurred in the 17th Century initiated the advances of modern science.The scientific knowledge system created by     

Bounds for the zeros of polynomials

Let P(z)=∑↓j=0↑n ajx^j be a polynomial of degree n. In this paper we prove a more general result which interalia improves upon the bounds of a class of polynomials. We also prove a result which includes some extensions and generalizations of Enestrǒm-Kakeya theorem.     

Boundedness of commutators related to Marcinkiewicz integrals on hardy type spaces

In this paper, the authors study the boundedness of the operator [μΩ, b], the commutator generated by a function b ∈ Lipβ(Rn)(0 ＜β≤ 1) and the Marcinkiewicz integrals μΩ, on the classical Hardy spaces and the Herz-type Hardy spaces in the case Ω∈ Lipα(Sn-1)(0 ＜α≤ 1).     

Jacobi polynomials used to invert the laplace transform

Given the Laplace transform F(s) of a function f(t), we develop a new algorithm to find an approximation to f(t) by the use of the classical Jacobi polynomials. The main contribution of our work is the development of a new and very effective method to determine the coefficients in the finite series expansion that approximation f(t) in terms of Jacobi polynomials. Some numerical examples are illustrated.     

Generalization of the interaction between Haar approximation and polynomial operators to higher order methods

In applications it is useful to compute the local average empirical statistics on u. A very simple relation exists when of a function f（u） of an input u from the local averages are given by a Haar approximation. The question is to know if it holds for higher order approximation methods. To do so, it is necessary to use approximate product operators defined over linear approximation spaces. These products are characterized by a Strang and Fix like condition. An explicit construction of these product operators is exhibited for piecewise polynomial functions, using Hermite interpolation. The averaging relation which holds for the Haar approximation is then recovered when the product is defined by a two point Hermite interpolation.