The effect of time delay on the dynamics of an SEIR model with nonlinear incidence

In this paper, a SEIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate and time delay is investigated in three cases. The local stability of an endemic equilibrium and a disease-free equilibrium are discussed using stability theory of delay differential equations. The conditions that guarantee the asymptotic stability of corresponding steady-states are investigated. The results show that the introduction of a time delay in the transmission term can destabilize the system and periodic solutions can arise through Hopf bifurcation when using the time delay as a bifurcation parameter. Applying the normal form theory and center manifold argument, the explicit formulas determining the properties of the bifurcating periodic solution are derived. In addition, the effect of the inhibitory effect on the properties of the bifurcating periodic solutions is studied. Numerical simulations are provided in order to illustrate the theoretical results and to gain further insight into the behaviors of delayed systems.     

Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of an Epidemic Model with Quarantine, Latent and Media Coverage

Epidemic models are very important in today''s analysis of diseases. In this paper, we propose and analyze an epidemic model incorporating quarantine, latent, media coverage and time delay. We analyze the local stability of either the disease-free and endemic equilibrium in terms of the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ as a threshold parameter. We prove that if $\mathcal{R}_{0}<1,$ the time delay in media coverage can not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and if $\mathcal{R}_{0}>1$, the model has at least one positive endemic equilibrium, the stability will be affected by the time delay and some conditions for Hopf bifurcation around infected equilibrium to occur are obtained by using the time delay as a bifurcation parameter. We illustrate our results by some numerical simulations such that we show that a proper application of quarantine plays a critical role in the clearance of the disease, and therefore a direct contact between people plays a critical role in the transmission of the disease.     

An SIS Epidemic Model with Stage Structure and a Delay

A disease transmission model of SIS type with stage structure and a delay is formulated. Stability of the disease free equilibrium, and existence, uniqueness, and stability of an endemic equilibrium, are investigated for the model. The stability results arc stated in terms of a key threshold parameter. The effects of stage structure and time delay on dynamical behavior of the infectious disease are analyzed. It is shown that stage structure has no effect on the epidemic model and Hopf bifurcation can occur as the time delay increases.     

Dynamical Analysis of a Delayed SIQS Epidemic Model on Scale-free Networks

In this paper, we establish a novel delayed SIQS epidemic model on scale-free networks, where time delay represents the average quarantine period. Through mathematical analysis, we present the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$. Then, we provide the global asymptotical stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the local asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium. Finally, we perform numerical simulations to verify the correctness of the main results and analyze the sensitivity of parameters. Our research shows that when $R_0>1$, lengthening the quarantine period can slow the spread of the disease and reduce the number of infected individuals.     

A two-strain epidemic model with mutant strain and vaccination

In this paper, it is assumed that the spread of a pathogen can mutate in the host to create a second, cocirculating, mutant strain. Vaccinated individuals perhaps becomes infected after being in contact with individuals infected with mutant strain. A?two-strain epidemic model with vaccination is firstly investigated. The existence and stability properties of equilibria in this model are examined. By analyzing the characteristic equation and constructing Lyapunov functions, the conditions for local and global stability of the infection-free, boundary and endemic equilibria are established. The existence of Hopf bifurcation from the endemic equilibrium is also examined as this equilibrium loses its stability. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical simulations.     

Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with saturated treatment function

An epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment function is studied. Here the treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals is getting larger and the medical condition is limited. The global dynamics of the model indicate that the basic reproduction number being the unity is a strict threshold for disease eradication when such effect is weak. However, it is shown that a backward bifurcation will take place when this delayed effect for treatment is strong. Therefore, driving the basic reproduction number below the unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. And a critical value at the turning point is deduced as a new threshold. Some sufficient conditions for the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium being globally asymptotically stable are also obtained. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that giving the patients timely treatment, improving the cure efficiency and decreasing the infective coefficient are all valid methods for the control of disease.     

具有媒体饱和效应影响的时滞SIS模型研究

媒体报道对疾病的预防和控制有着重要的作用,其可以减少人们感染疾病的机会.通过建立具有媒体饱和的传染病时滞模型来刻画媒体报道对感染率的影响,首先计算出无病平衡点和当R_01时存在唯一的地方病平衡点;其次,分析了平衡点的稳定性,并得到当参数满足一定条件时,时滞τ超过临界值τ_0,地方病平衡点处会出现Hopf分支;最后,通过数值模拟来验证理论分析.     

一类时滞SIR传染病模型的稳定性与Hopf分岔分析

研究了一类具有时滞及非线性发生率的SIR传染病模型．首先利用特征值理论分析了地方病平衡点的稳定性,并以时滞为分岔参数,给出了Hopf分岔存在的条件．然后,应用规范型和中心流形定理给出了关于Hopf分岔周期解的稳定性及分岔方向的计算公式．最后,用Matlab软件进行了数值模拟．     

Stochastically perturbed vector-borne disease models with direct transmission

In this paper we study a stochastic epidemic model of vector-borne diseases with direct mode of transmission and its delay modification. More precisely, we extend the deterministic epidemic models by introducing random perturbations around the endemic equilibrium state. By using suitable Lyapunov functions and functionals, we obtain stability conditions for the considered models and study the effect of the delay on the stability of the endemic equilibrium. Finally, numerical simulations for the stochastic model of malaria disease transmission are presented to illustrate our mathematical findings.     

Bifurcation analysis of an SIRS epidemic model with standard incidence rate and saturated treatment function

An epidemic model with standard incidence rate and saturated treatment function of infectious individuals is proposed to understand the effect of the capacity for treatment of infective individuals on the disease spread. The treatment function in this paper is a continuous and differential function which exhibits the effect of delayed treatment when the rate of treatment is lower and the number of infected individuals is getting larger. It is proved that the existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria for the model are not only related to the basic reproduction number but also to the capacity for treatment of infective individuals. And a backward bifurcation is found when the capacity is not enough. By computing the first Lyapunov coefficient, we can determine the type of Hopf bifurcation, i.e., subcritical Hopf bifurcation or supercritical Hopf bifurcation. We also show that under some conditions the model undergoes Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support some of the theoretical results.     

Dynamical behavior of a delay virus dynamics model with CTL immune response

In this paper, the dynamical behavior of a virus dynamics model with CTL immune response and time delay is studied. Time delay is used to describe the time between the infected cell and the emission of viral particles on a cellular level. The effect of time delay on stability of the equilibria of the CTL immune response model has been studied and sufficient criteria for local asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium, immune-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium are given. Some conditions for Hopf bifurcation around immune-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium to occur are also obtained by using the time delay as a bifurcation parameter. Numerical simulation with some hypothetical sets of data has been done to support the analytical findings.     

Complicated endemics of an SIRS model with a generalized incidence under preventive vaccination and treatment controls

In this paper, we propose and study an SIRS epidemic model that incorporates: a generalized incidence rate function describing mechanisms of the disease transmission; a preventive vaccination in the susceptible individuals; and different treatment control strategies depending on the infective population. We provide rigorous mathematical results combined with numerical simulations of the proposed model including: treatment control strategies can determine whether there is an endemic outbreak or not and the number of endemic equilibrium during endemic outbreaks, in addition to the effects of the basic reproduction number; the large value of the preventive vaccination rate can reduce or control the spread of disease; and the large value of the psychological or inhibitory effects in the incidence rate function can decrease the infective population. Some of our interesting findings are that the treatment strategies incorporated in our SIRS model are responsible for backward or forward bifurcations and multiple endemic equilibria; and the infective population decreases with respect to the maximal capacity of treatment. Our results may provide us useful biological insights on population managements for disease that can be modeled through SIRS compartments.     

Analysis of periodic solutions in an eco-epidemiological model with saturation incidence and latency delay

In the present work, a mathematical model of predator–prey ecological interaction with infected prey is investigated. A saturation incidence function is used to model the behavioral change of the susceptible individuals when their number increases or due to the crowding effect of the infected individuals [V. Capasso, G. Serio, A generalization of the Kermack–McKendrick deterministic epidemic model, Math. Biosci. 42 (1978) 41–61]. Stability criteria for the infection-free and the endemic equilibria are deduced in terms of system parameters. The basic model is then modified to incorporate a time delay, describing a latency period. Stability and bifurcation analysis of the resulting delay differential equation model is carried out and ranges of the delay inducing stability and as well as instability for the system are found. Finally, a stability analysis of the bifurcating solutions is performed and the criteria for subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcation derived. The existence of a delay interval that preserves the stability of periodic orbits is demonstrated. The analysis emphasizes the importance of differential predation and a latency period in controlling disease dynamics.     

Dynamics of a delayed predator–prey model with predator migration

Based on the availability of prey and a simple predator–prey model, we propose a delayed predator–prey model with predator migration to describe biological control. We first study the existence and stability of equilibria. It turns out that backward bifurcation occurs with the migration rate as bifurcation parameter. The stability of the trivial equilibrium and the boundary equilibrium is delay-independent. However, the stability of the positive equilibrium may be delay-dependent. Moreover, delay can switch the stability of the positive equilibrium. When the positive equilibrium loses stability, Hopf bifurcation can occur. The direction and stability of Hopf bifurcation is derived by applying the center manifold method and the normal form theory. The main theoretical results are illustrated with numerical simulations.     

Permanence of an SIR epidemic model with density dependent birth rate and distributed time delay

In this paper, we investigate the permanence of an SIR epidemic model with a density-dependent birth rate and a distributed time delay. We first consider the attractivity of the disease-free equilibrium and then show that for any time delay, the delayed SIR epidemic model is permanent if and only if an endemic equilibrium exists. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the theoretical analysis. The results obtained are also compared with those from the analog system with a discrete time delay.     

Global dynamics of a general brucellosis model with discrete delay

For the prevention and control of brucellosis, it is important to investigate the mechanism of brucellosis transmission. Based on the characteristics of the spread of brucellosis, a susceptible-exposed-infectious-brucella (SEIB) delay dynamic model is proposed with the general incidence, elimination rate and shedding rate of pathogen. Under biologically motivated assumptions, it shows the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium, and investigates the global asymptotically stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The results suggest that the global stability of equilibria depends entirely on the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and time delay is harmless for the stability of equilibria. Finally, some specific examples and numerical simulations are used to illustrate the utilization of research results and reveal the biological significance of hypothesis $(H_7)$, which implies that the dynamics of brucellosis transmission depend largely on the development of the prevention and control strategies.     

Two patterns of recruitment in an epidemic model with difference in immunity of individuals

In this paper, two SIR epidemic models with different patterns of recruitment and difference in immunity are investigated. When the recruitment rate is less than some threshold value, the disease will be eradicated. Furthermore, for the continuous recruitment model, according to the Poincare–Bendixson theorem, the global asymptotical stability of a unique positive equilibrium is obtained. For the pulse recruitment model, we investigated the existence of nontrivial periodic solutions via a supercritical (subcritical) bifurcation. From a biological point of view, our results indicate that (1) the disease can be eradicated if the recruitment rate is controlled under some threshold; (2) the number of the infected increases as the difference in immunity increases; (3) fewer individuals are infected as the pulse recruitment is taken, displaying its effect on the control of the disease.     

A Mathematical Model with Delays for Schistosomiasis Japonicum Transmission

A dynamic model of schistosoma japonicum transmission is presented that incorporates effects of the prepatent periods of the different stages of schistosoma into Baxbour＇s model. The model consists of four delay differential equations. Stability of the disease free equilibrium and the existence of an endemic equilibrium for this model are stated in terms of a key threshold parameter. The study of dynamics for the model shows that the endemic equilibrium is globally stable in an open region if it exists and there is no delays, and for some nonzero delays the endemic equilibrium undergoes Hopf bifurcation and a periodic orbit emerges. Some numerical results are provided to support the theoretic results in this paper. These results suggest that prepatent periods in infection affect the prevalence of schistosomiasis, and it is an effective strategy on schistosomiasis control to lengthen in prepatent period on infected definitive hosts by drug treatment （or lengthen in prepatent period on infected intermediate snails by lower water temperature）.     

An epidemic model of a vector-borne disease with direct transmission and time delay

This paper considers an epidemic model of a vector-borne disease which has direct mode of transmission in addition to the vector-mediated transmission. The incidence term is assumed to be of the bilinear mass-action form. We include both a baseline ODE version of the model, and, a differential-delay model with a discrete time delay. The ODE model shows that the dynamics is completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. If R₀?1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable and the disease dies out. If R₀>1, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and is locally asymptotically stable in the interior of the feasible region. The delay in the differential-delay model accounts for the incubation time the vectors need to become infectious. We study the effect of that delay on the stability of the equilibria. We show that the introduction of a time delay in the host-to-vector transmission term can destabilize the system and periodic solutions can arise through Hopf bifurcation.     

Global dynamics and bifurcation in delayed SIR epidemic model

An SIR epidemic model with time delay, information variable and saturated incidence rate, where the susceptibles are assumed to satisfy the logistic equation and the incidence term, is of saturated form with the susceptibles. This model exhibits two bifurcations, one is transcritical bifurcation and the other is Hopf bifurcation. The local and global stability of endemic equilibrium is also discussed. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to explain the mathematical conclusions.