A single-shot game of multi-period inspection

This paper deals with an inspection game of Customs and a smuggler during some days. Customs has two options of patrolling or not. The smuggler can take two strategies of shipping its cargo of contraband or not. Two players have several opportunities to take an action during a limited number of days but they may discard some of the opportunities. When the smuggling coincides with the patrol, there occurs one of three events: the capture of the smuggler by Customs, a success of the smuggling and nothing new. If the smuggler is captured or no time remains to complete the game, the game ends. There have been many studies on the inspection game so far by the multi-stage game model, where both players at a stage know players’ strategies taken at the previous stage. In this paper, we consider a two-person zero-sum single-shot game, where the game proceeds through multiple periods but both players do not know any strategies taken by their opponents on the process of the game. We apply dynamic programming to the game to exhaust all equilibrium points on a strategy space of player. We also clarify the characteristics of optimal strategies of players by some numerical examples.     

连续区间策略下二人零和对策问题研究

考虑连续区间策略下的二人零和对策问题,研究其均衡策略的存在性。首先分析了完全信息下的二人零和对策问题,证明了该问题均衡策略的存在性并给出求解方法。然后进一步研究了收益函数不确定的不完全信息二人零和对策问题,在各局中人都认为对方是风险厌恶型的假设下,分析该类对策纯策略均衡的存在性,并通过研究纯策略均衡存在的充要条件给出判断并寻找纯策略均衡解的方法。最后给出一个数值算例,验证本文所提出方法的可行性。     

基于训练和过滤的期望均衡及其实现路径

期望均衡是博弈局中人或局外人对于博弈均衡点的一致期望,强调互利共赢,它要求博弈群体的每个成员对期望均衡点有一个共同的预期.显然,基于纳什均衡的帕累托优化组合策略是一个比纳什均衡更有效的期望均衡.要实现期望均衡,可采用局中人参与的训练与学习使得群体的预期一致,也可采用第三方过滤器来达到期望目标.在期望均衡的概率分布下,个体行为的偏离不能比均衡态取得更多收益.否则,训练就是无效的,第三方过滤器就是不公平的.     

Bounded rationality, strategy simplification, and equilibrium

It is frequently suggested that predictions made by game theory could be improved by considering computational restrictions when modeling agents. Under the supposition that players in a game may desire to balance maximization of payoff with minimization of strategy complexity, Rubinstein and co-authors studied forms of Nash equilibrium where strategies are maximally simplified in that no strategy can be further simplified without sacrificing payoff. Inspired by this line of work, we introduce a notion of equilibrium whereby strategies are also maximally simplified, but with respect to a simplification procedure that is more careful in that a player will not simplify if the simplification incents other players to deviate. We study such equilibria in two-player machine games in which players choose finite automata that succinctly represent strategies for repeated games; in this context, we present techniques for establishing that an outcome is at equilibrium and present results on the structure of equilibria.     

On equilibrium in pure strategies in games with many players

We demonstrate that, if there are sufficiently many players, any Bayesian equilibrium of an incomplete information game can be “ε-purified” . That is, close to any Bayesian equilibrium there is an approximate Bayesian equilibrium in pure strategies. Our main contribution is obtaining this result for games with a countable set of pure strategies. In order to do so we derive a mathematical result, in the spirit of the Shapley–Folkman Theorem, permitting countable strategy sets. Our main assumption is a “large game property,” dictating that the actions of relatively small subsets of players cannot have large affects on the payoffs of other players. E. Cartwright and M. Wooders are indebted to Phillip Reny, Frank Page and two anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

Dynamic competition over social networks

We propose an analytical approach to the problem of influence maximization in a social network where two players compete by means of dynamic targeting strategies. We formulate the problem as a two-player zero-sum stochastic game. We prove the existence of the uniform value: if the players are sufficiently patient, both can guarantee the same mean-average opinion without knowing the exact length of the game. Furthermore, we put forward some elements for the characterization of equilibrium strategies. In general, players must implement a trade-off between a forward-looking perspective, according to which they aim to maximize the future spread of their opinion in the network, and a backward-looking perspective, according to which they aim to counteract their opponent’s previous actions. When the influence potential of players is small, we describe an equilibrium through a one-shot game based on eigenvector centrality.     

Internal correlation in repeated games

This paper characterizes the set of all the Nash equilibrium payoffs in two player repeated games where the signal that the players get after each stage is either trivial (does not reveal any information) or standard (the signal is the pair of actions played). It turns out that if the information is not always trivial then the set of all the Nash equilibrium payoffs coincides with the set of the correlated equilibrium payoffs. In particular, any correlated equilibrium payoff of the one shot game is also a Nash equilibrium payoff of the repeated game.For the proof we develop a scheme by which two players can generate any correlation device, using the signaling structure of the game. We present strategies with which the players internally correlate their actions without the need of an exogenous mediator.     

Service rate control of closed Jackson networks from game theoretic perspective

Game theoretic analysis of queueing systems is an important research direction of queueing theory. In this paper, we study the service rate control problem of closed Jackson networks from a game theoretic perspective. The payoff function consists of a holding cost and an operating cost. Each server optimizes its service rate control strategy to maximize its own average payoff. We formulate this problem as a non-cooperative stochastic game with multiple players. By utilizing the problem structure of closed Jackson networks, we derive a difference equation which quantifies the performance difference under any two different strategies. We prove that no matter what strategies the other servers adopt, the best response of a server is to choose its service rates on the boundary. Thus, we can limit the search of equilibrium strategy profiles from a multidimensional continuous polyhedron to the set of its vertex. We further develop an iterative algorithm to find the Nash equilibrium. Moreover, we derive the social optimum of this problem, which is compared with the equilibrium using the price of anarchy. The bounds of the price of anarchy of this problem are also obtained. Finally, simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate the main idea of this paper.     

A Strong Anti-Folk Theorem

We study the properties of finitely complex, symmetric, globally stable, and semi-perfect equilibria. We show that: (1) If a strategy satisfies these properties then players play a Nash equilibrium of the stage game in every period; (2) The set of finitely complex, symmetric, globally stable, semi-perfect equilibrium payoffs in the repeated game equals the set of Nash equilibria payoffs in the stage game; and (3) A strategy vector satisfies these properties in a Pareto optimal way if and only if players play some Pareto optimal Nash equilibrium of the stage game in every stage. Our second main result is a strong anti-Folk Theorem, since, in contrast to what is described by the Folk Theorem, the set of equilibrium payoffs does not expand when the game is repeated.This paper is a revised version of Chapter 3 of my Ph.D. thesis, which has circulated under the title “An Interpretation of Nash Equilibrium Based on the Notion of Social Institutions”.     

An attrition game on a network ruled by Lanchester’s square law

We consider two-person zero-sum attrition games in which an attacker and a defender are in combat with each other on a network. The attacker marches from a starting node to a destination node, hoping that the initial members survive the march. The defender deploys his forces on arcs in order to intercept the attacker. If the attacker encounters the defender on an arc, the attacker incurs casualties according to Lanchester’s square law. We consider two models: a one-shot game in which the two players have no information about their opponents, and a two-stage game in which both players have some information about their opponents. For both games, the payoff is defined as the number of survivors for the attacker. The attacker’s strategy is to choose a path, and the defender’s is to deploy the defending forces on arcs. We propose a numerical algorithm, in which nonlinear programming is embedded, to derive the equilibrium of the game.     

大博弈中Nash均衡的存在性

研究了具有任意多个局中人的非合作博弈(大博弈)中Nash均衡的存在性.将1969年Ma的截口定理推广得到新的截口定理.用这个新的截口定理进一步证明了:1)大博弈中Nash均衡的存在性;2)纯策略集为紧度量空间而且支付函数为连续函数时,连续大博弈中混合策略Nash均衡的存在性.并且存在性定理推出了2010年Salonen的结果,即此研究结果较Salonen的结论更具普遍意义.     

Variational inequality formulation for the games with random payoffs

We consider an n-player non-cooperative game with random payoffs and continuous strategy set for each player. The random payoffs of each player are defined using a finite dimensional random vector. We formulate this problem as a chance-constrained game by defining the payoff function of each player using a chance constraint. We first consider the case where the continuous strategy set of each player does not depend on the strategies of other players. If a random vector defining the payoffs of each player follows a multivariate elliptically symmetric distribution, we show that there exists a Nash equilibrium. We characterize the set of Nash equilibria using the solution set of a variational inequality (VI) problem. Next, we consider the case where the continuous strategy set of each player is defined by a shared constraint set. In this case, we show that there exists a generalized Nash equilibrium for elliptically symmetric distributed payoffs. Under certain conditions, we characterize the set of a generalized Nash equilibria using the solution set of a VI problem. As an application, the random payoff games arising from electricity market are studied under chance-constrained game framework.     

Discounted and finitely repeated minority games with public signals

We consider a repeated game where at each stage players simultaneously choose one of the two rooms. The players who choose the less crowded room are rewarded with one euro. The players in the same room do not recognize each other, and between the stages only the current majority room is publicly announced, hence the game has imperfect public monitoring. An undiscounted version of this game was considered by Renault et al. [Renault, J., Scarlatti, S., Scarsini, M., 2005. A folk theorem for minority games. Games Econom. Behav. 53 (2), 208–230], who proved a folk theorem. Here we consider a discounted version and a finitely repeated version of the game, and we strengthen our previous result by showing that the set of equilibrium payoffs Hausdorff-converges to the feasible set as either the discount factor goes to one or the number of repetition goes to infinity. We show that the set of public equilibria for this game is strictly smaller than the set of private equilibria.     

Stochastic Stackelberg differential reinsurance games under time-inconsistent mean–variance framework

We study optimal reinsurance in the framework of stochastic Stackelberg differential game, in which an insurer and a reinsurer are the two players, and more specifically are considered as the follower and the leader of the Stackelberg game, respectively. An optimal reinsurance policy is determined by the Stackelberg equilibrium of the game, consisting of an optimal reinsurance strategy chosen by the insurer and an optimal reinsurance premium strategy by the reinsurer. Both the insurer and the reinsurer aim to maximize their respective mean–variance cost functionals. To overcome the time-inconsistency issue in the game, we formulate the optimization problem of each player as an embedded game and solve it via a corresponding extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. It is found that the Stackelberg equilibrium can be achieved by the pair of a variance reinsurance premium principle and a proportional reinsurance treaty, or that of an expected value reinsurance premium principle and an excess-of-loss reinsurance treaty. Moreover, the former optimal reinsurance policy is determined by a unique, model-free Stackelberg equilibrium; the latter one, though exists, may be non-unique and model-dependent, and depend on the tail behavior of the claim-size distribution to be more specific. Our numerical analysis provides further support for necessity of integrating the insurer and the reinsurer into a unified framework. In this regard, the stochastic Stackelberg differential reinsurance game proposed in this paper is a good candidate to achieve this goal.     

Cournot tâtonnement and dominance solvability in finite games

If a finite strategic game is strictly dominance solvable, then every simultaneous best response adjustment path, as well as every non-discriminatory individual best response improvement path, ends at a Nash equilibrium after a finite number of steps. If a game is weakly dominance solvable, then every strategy profile can be connected to a Nash equilibrium with a simultaneous best response path and with an individual best response path (if there are more than two players, switches from one best response to another may be needed). Both statements remain valid if dominance solvability in the usual sense is replaced with “BR-dominance solvability”, where a strategy can be eliminated if it is not among the best responses to anything, or if it is not indispensable for providing the best responses to all contingencies. For a two person game, some implications in the opposite direction are obtained.     

Forward-backward stochastic differential equation games with delay and noisy memory

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to study a stochastic game connected to a system of forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs) involving delay and noisy memory. We derive sufficient and necessary maximum principles for a set of controls for the players to be a Nash equilibrium in the game. Furthermore, we study a corresponding FBSDE involving Malliavin derivatives. This kind of equation has not been studied before. The maximum principles give conditions for determining the Nash equilibrium of the game. We use this to derive a closed form Nash equilibrium for an economic model where the players maximize their consumption with respect to recursive utility.     

Pairwise epistemic conditions for correlated rationalizability

We provide a foundation for correlated rationalizability by means of pairwise epistemic conditions imposed only on some pairs of players. Indeed, we show that pairwise mutual belief, for some pairs of players, of (i) the game payoffs, (ii) rationality, and (iii) deeming possible only strategy profiles that receive positive probability by the actual conjectures suffice for correlated rationalizability when there is a common prior. Moreover, we show that our epistemic conditions do not require nor imply mutual belief of rationality. Finally, we discuss the relationship between correlated rationalizability and Nash equilibrium on the basis of the respective pairwise epistemic conditions for each of the two concepts.     

On a class of nonzero-sum,linear-quadratic differential games

A class of two-player, nonzero-sum, linear-quadratic differential games is investigated for Nash equilibrium solutions when both players use closed-loop control and when one or both of the players are required to use open-loop control. For three formulations of the game, necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained for a particular strategy set to be a Nash equilibrium strategy set. For a fourth formulation of the game, where both players use open-loop control, necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a Nash equilibrium strategy set are developed. Several examples are presented in order to illustrate the differences between this class of differential games and its zero-sum analog.This research was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. GK-3341.     

Inducing cooperation by reciprocative strategy in non-zero-sum games

In this paper, we investigate the use of reciprocative strategy to induce cooperative behavior in non-zero-sum games. Reciprocative behavior is defined mathematically in the context of a two-person non-zero-sum game in which both the players have a common set of pure strategies. Conditions under which mutual cooperative behavior results when one of the players responds optimally to reciprocative behavior by the other player are described. Also, the desirability of playing the reciprocative strategy is investigated by stating conditions under which reciprocative strategy by one of the players or by both the players leading to mutual cooperative behavior is a Nash equilibrium outcome.