Statistical properties of a kernel-type estimator of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process

We consider a kernel-type nonparametric estimator of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process when the period is unknown. We assume that only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded window which expands in time. We compute the asymptotic bias, variance, and the mean-squared error of the estimator when the window indefinitely expands.     

Consistent estimation of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process

We construct and investigate a consistent kernel-type nonparametric estimator of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process when the period is unknown. We do not assume any particular parametric form for the intensity function, nor do we even assume that it is continuous. Moreover, we consider the situation when only a single realization of the Poisson process is available, and only in a bounded window. We prove, in particular, that the proposed estimator is consistent when the size of the window indefinitely expands. We also obtain complete convergence of the estimator.     

Pre-averaged kernel estimators for the drift function of a diffusion process in the presence of microstructure noise

We consider estimation of the drift function of a stationary diffusion process when we observe high-frequency data with microstructure noise over a long time interval. We propose to estimate the drift function at a point by a Nadaraya–Watson estimator that uses observations that have been pre-averaged to reduce the noise. We give conditions under which our estimator is consistent and asympotically normal. Its rate and asymptotic bias and variance are the same as those without microstructure noise. To use our method in data analysis, we propose a data-based cross-validation method to determine the bandwidth in the Nadaraya–Watson estimator. Via simulation, we study several methods of bandwidth choices, and compare our estimator to several existing estimators. In terms of mean squared error, our new estimator outperforms existing estimators.     

A Markov Chain Monte Carlo comparison of variance estimators for the sampling of particulate mixtures

During the sampling of particulate mixtures, samples taken are analyzed for their mass concentration, which generally has non‐zero sample‐to‐sample variance. Bias, variance, and mean squared error (MSE) of a number of variance estimators, derived by Geelhoed, were studied in this article. The Monte Carlo simulation was applied using an observable first‐order Markov Chain with transition probabilities that served as a model for the sample drawing process. Because the bias and variance of a variance estimator could depend on the specific circumstances under which it is applied, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for a wide range of practically relevant scenarios. Using the ‘smallest mean squared error’ as a criterion, an adaptation of an estimator based on a first‐order Taylor linearization of the sample concentration is the best. An estimator based on the Horvitz–Thompson estimator is not practically applicable because of the potentially high MSE for the cases studied. The results indicate that the Poisson estimator leads to a biased estimator for the variance of fundamental sampling error (up to 428% absolute value of relative bias) in case of low levels of grouping and segregation. The uncertainty of the results obtained by the simulations was also addressed and it was found that the results were not significantly affected. The potentials of a recently described other approach are discussed for extending the first‐order Markov Chain described here to account also for higher levels of grouping and segregation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

左截断右删失数据分位差估计及其渐近性质

我们研究了左截断右删失数据分位差,基于左截断右删失数据乘积限构造了分位差的经验估计,同时克服经验估计的非光滑性,提出了分位数差的核光滑估计.利用经验过程理论推导出这两个估计的渐近偏差和渐近方差,并且在左截断右删失数据下研究了这两个分位差的大样本性质,获得分位差估计的相合性和渐近正态性.同时给出计算模拟以验证光滑分位差估计的表现,在均方损失的意义下模拟结果表明光滑估计比经验估计具有更好的性质.     

右删失长度偏差数据分位数差的非参数估计

利用长度偏差数据所特有的辅助信息,对带右删失的长度偏差数据的分位数差提出了一种新的非参数估计.该方法提高了估计的有效性,所得的估计量形式简洁,便于计算.同时,本文用经验过程理论建立了该分位数差估计的相合性及渐近正态性,并给出方差估计的重抽样方法.本文还通过数值模拟考察了该估计量在有限样本下的表现,并将其应用到一个关于老年痴呆的实际数据中.     

Almost sure convergence of the Bartlett estimator

Summary We study the almost sure convergence of the Bartlett estimator for the asymptotic variance of the sample mean of a stationary weekly dependent process. We also study the a.\ s.\ behavior of this estimator in the case of long-range dependent observations. In the weakly dependent case, we establish conditions under which the estimator is strongly consistent. We also show that, after appropriate normalization, the estimator converges a.s. in the long-range dependent case as well. In both cases, our conditions involve fourth order cumulants and assumptions on the rate of growth of the truncation parameter appearing in the definition of the Bartlett estimator.     

Jackknifing in partially linear regression models with serially correlated errors

In this paper jackknifing technique is examined for functions of the parametric component in a partially linear regression model with serially correlated errors. By deleting partial residuals a jackknife-type estimator is proposed. It is shown that the jackknife-type estimator and the usual semiparametric least-squares estimator (SLSE) are asymptotically equivalent. However, simulation shows that the former has smaller biases than the latter when the sample size is small or moderate. Moreover, since the errors are correlated, both the Tukey type and the delta type jackknife asymptotic variance estimators are not consistent. By introducing cross-product terms, a consistent estimator of the jackknife asymptotic variance is constructed and shown to be robust against heterogeneity of the error variances. In addition, simulation results show that confidence interval estimation based on the proposed jackknife estimator has better coverage probability than that based on the SLSE, even though the latter uses the information of the error structure, while the former does not.     

On a nonparametric estimator for the finite time survival probability with zero initial surplus

In this paper, we consider the estimation of the finite time survival probability in the classical risk model when the initial surplus is zero. We construct a nonparametric estimator by Fourier inversion and kernel density estimation method. Under some mild assumptions imposed on the kernel, bandwidth and claim size density, we derive the order of the bias and variance, and show that the estimator has asymptotic normality property. Some simulation studies show that the estimator performs quite well in the finite sample setting.     

Estimating spot volatility in the presence of infinite variation jumps

We propose a kernel estimator for the spot volatility of a semi-martingale at a given time point by using high frequency data, where the underlying process accommodates a jump part of infinite variation. The estimator is based on the representation of the characteristic function of Lévy processes. The consistency of the proposed estimator is established under some mild assumptions. By assuming that the jump part of the underlying process behaves like a symmetric stable Lévy process around 0, we establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. In particular, with a specific kernel function, the estimator is variance efficient. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to assess our theoretical results and compare our estimator with existing ones.     

Simultaneous estimation of Poisson means

In the simultaneous estimation of means from independent Poisson distributions, an estimator is developed which incorporates a prior mean and variance for each Poisson mean estimated. This estimator possesses substantially smaller risk than the usual estimator in a region of the parameter space and seems superior to other estimators proposed to estimate p Poisson means. It is indicated through two asymptotic results that, unlike the conjugate Bayes estimator, the risk of the estimator does not greatly exceed the risk of the usual estimator outside of the region of risk improvement.     

A bias corrected nonparametric regression estimator

In this article, we propose a new method of bias reduction in nonparametric regression estimation. The proposed new estimator has asymptotic bias order h⁴, where h is a smoothing parameter, in contrast to the usual bias order h² for the local linear regression. In addition, the proposed estimator has the same order of the asymptotic variance as the local linear regression. Our proposed method is closely related to the bias reduction method for kernel density estimation proposed by Chung and Lindsay (2011). However, our method is not a direct extension of their density estimate, but a totally new one based on the bias cancelation result of their proof.     

Estimating and Visualizing Conditional Densities

Abstract

We consider the kernel estimator of conditional density and derive its asymptotic bias, variance, and mean-square error. Optimal bandwidths (with respect to integrated mean-square error) are found and it is shown that the convergence rate of the density estimator is order n ^–2/3. We also note that the conditional mean function obtained from the estimator is equivalent to a kernel smoother. Given the undesirable bias properties of kernel smoothers, we seek a modified conditional density estimator that has mean equivalent to some other nonparametric regression smoother with better bias properties. It is also shown that our modified estimator has smaller mean square error than the standard estimator in some commonly occurring situations. Finally, three graphical methods for visualizing conditional density estimators are discussed and applied to a data set consisting of maximum daily temperatures in Melbourne, Australia.     

Asymptotic properties of the Bayes modal estimators of item parameters in item response theory

Asymptotic cumulants of the Bayes modal estimators of item parameters using marginal likelihood in item response theory are derived up to the fourth order with added higher-order asymptotic variances under possible model misspecification. Among them, only the first asymptotic cumulant and the higher-order asymptotic variance for an estimator are different from those by maximum likelihood. Corresponding results for studentized Bayes estimators and asymptotically bias-corrected ones are also obtained. It was found that all the asymptotic cumulants of the bias-corrected Bayes estimator up to the fourth order and the higher-order asymptotic variance are identical to those by maximum likelihood with bias correction. Numerical illustrations are given with simulations in the case when the 2-parameter logistic model holds. In the numerical illustrations, the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators are used, where the same independent log-normal priors are employed for discriminant parameters and the hierarchical model is adopted for the prior of difficulty parameters.     

左截断相依数据下条件分位数的双核局部线性估计

本文在左截断相依数据下,利用局部线性估计的方法,先提出了条件分布函数的双核估计;然后利用该估计导出了条件分位数的双核局部线性估计,并建立了这些估计的渐近正态性结果;最后,通过模拟显示该估计在偏移和边界点调节上要比一般的核估计更好.     

Numerical approximation of conditional asymptotic variances using Monte Carlo simulation

We consider in this paper the use of Monte Carlo simulation to numerically approximate the asymptotic variance of an estimator of a population parameter. When the variance of an estimator does not exist in finite samples, the variance of its limiting distribution is often used for inferences. However, in this case, the numerical approximation of asymptotic variances is less straightforward, unless their analytical derivation is mathematically tractable. The method proposed does not assume the existence of variance in finite samples. If finite sample variance does exist, it provides a more efficient approximation than the one based on the convergence of finite sample variances. Furthermore, the results obtained will be potentially useful in evaluating and comparing different estimation procedures based on their asymptotic variances for various types of distributions. The method is also applicable in surveys where the sample size required to achieve a fixed margin of error is based on the asymptotic variance of the estimator. The proposed method can be routinely applied and alleviates the complex theoretical treatment usually associated with the analytical derivation of the asymptotic variance of an estimator which is often managed on a case by case basis. This is particularly appealing in view of the advance of modern computing technology. The proposed numerical approximation is based on the variances of a certain truncated statistic for two selected sample sizes, using a Richardson extrapolation type formulation. The variances of the truncated statistic for the two sample sizes are computed based on Monte Carlo simulations, and the theory for optimizing the computing resources is also given. The accuracy of the proposed method is numerically demonstrated in a classical errors-in-variables model where analytical results are available for the purpose of comparisons.     

Statistical inference in a panel data semiparametric regression model with serially correlated errors

We consider a panel data semiparametric partially linear regression model with an unknown vector β of regression coefficients, an unknown nonparametric function g(·) for nonlinear component, and unobservable serially correlated errors. The correlated errors are modeled by a vector autoregressive process which involves a constant intraclass correlation. Applying the pilot estimators of β and g(·), we construct estimators of the autoregressive coefficients, the intraclass correlation and the error variance, and investigate their asymptotic properties. Fitting the error structure results in a new semiparametric two-step estimator of β, which is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the usual semiparametric least squares estimator in terms of asymptotic covariance matrix. Asymptotic normality of this new estimator is established, and a consistent estimator of its asymptotic covariance matrix is presented. Furthermore, a corresponding estimator of g(·) is also provided. These results can be used to make asymptotically efficient statistical inference. Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performances of these proposed estimators.     

Statistical inference for right-censored data with nonignorable missing censoring indicators

We consider the statistical inference for right-censored data when censoring indicators are missing but nonignorable, and propose an adjusted imputation product-limit estimator. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and converges to a Gaussian process. Furthermore, we develop an empirical processbased testing method to check the MAR (missing at random) mechanism, and establish asymptotic properties for the proposed test statistic. To determine the critical value of the test, a consistent model-based bootstrap method is suggested. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed method and compare it with existing methods. We also analyze a real data set from a breast cancer study for an illustration.     

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This paper concerns with the estimation of a fixed effects panel data partially linear regression model with the idiosyncratic errors being an autoregressive process. For fixed effects short time series panel data, the commonly used autoregressive error structure fitting method will not result in a consistent estimator of the autoregressive coefficients. Here we propose an alternative estimation and show that the resulting estimator of the autoregressive coefficients is consistent and this method is workable for any order autoregressive error structure. Moreover, combining the B-spline approximation, profile least squares dummy variable (PLSDV) technique and consistently estimated the autoregressive error structure, we develop a weighted PLSDV estimator for the parametric component and a weighted B-spline series (BS) estimator for the nonparametric component. The weighted PLSDV estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal and more asymptotically efficient than the one which ignores the error autoregressive structure. In addition, this paper derives the asymptotic bias of the weighted BS estimator and establish its asymptotic normality as well. Simulation studies and an example of application are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed procedures.     

Data sharpening methods in multivariate local quadratic regression

This paper is concerned with the conditional bias and variance of local quadratic regression to the multivariate predictor variables. Data sharpening methods of nonparametric regression were first proposed by Choi, Hall, Roussion. Recently, a data sharpening estimator of local linear regression was discussed by Naito and Yoshizaki. In this paper, to improve mainly the fitting precision, we extend their results on the asymptotic bias and variance. Using the data sharpening estimator of multivariate local quadratic regression, we are able to derive higher fitting precision. In particular, our approach is simple to implement, since it has an explicit form, and is convenient when analyzing the asymptotic conditional bias and variance of the estimator at the interior and boundary points of the support of the density function.