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1.
离散的SI和SIS传染病模型的研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
为了描述个体的死亡、染病者的恢复以及疾病的传染,引入了相应的概率.基于总种群中个体数量为常数的假设,根据染病者能否恢复分别建立了具有生命动力学的离散SI和SIS传染病模型.所得到的结果显示:它们具有与相应连续模型相同的动力学性态,并确定了各自的阈值.在它们的阈值之下,传染病最终将灭绝;在它们的阈值之上,传染病将会发展成为地方病,染病者的数量将趋向于一确定的正常数.  相似文献   

2.
一、专题的背景与分析   1. 背景   闵行区的沪闵路─春申路口是交通特别拥挤的交叉路口之一.家住莘庄地区的同学有一个共同的感受,在他们到校或回家路上必经的沪闵路─春申路口时常遇到塞车现象.……  相似文献   

3.
报童模型及ARMA预测在航空配餐问题中的应用   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
航班承载人数的不确定性,造成航空公司在配餐中利润的流失,现存的配餐模式存在较多的浪费.本文利用基于损失厌恶的报童模型和ARMA时间序列分析模型对深圳航空公司某航班的配餐份数进行了建模分析和预测,并通过对两种模型输出的比较,得出了长期预测与短期预测的模型应用理论.将实际的历史数据代人到模型中验证,其结果优于经验模式下的配餐盈利情况.本文所采用的研究方法和研究结果对航空公司的精益发展有建设性的意义.  相似文献   

4.
"牛吃草"问题又称为消长问题,是17世纪英国伟大的科学家牛顿提出来的.典型牛吃草问题的条件是假设草的生长速度固定不变,不同头数的牛吃光同一片草地所需的天数各不相同,求若干头牛吃这片草地可以吃多少天.由于吃的天数不同,草又是天天在生长的,所以草的存量随吃的天数不断地变化.……  相似文献   

5.
胖瓜 《数学大王》2013,(10):28-31
福尔摩西接到电话的时候正在翻看一本关于城中富翁艾伦王的传奇故事。艾伦王年少时靠贩卖廉价的小闹钟起家,经过几十年的辛勤努力,把自己的事业拓展成了最有名的钟表公司,是本市最有名的富翁。艾伦王年纪已经很大了,身体也不好。他的儿女众多,但是他们和艾伦王的关系并不融洽。大家都猜测他们对艾伦王的财富虎视眈眈。"喂,福尔摩西吗?"约翰焦急的声音从电话那头传过来。"是我。"福尔摩西回应道。  相似文献   

6.
视岩体强度参数为正态分布随机变量,以可靠度理论为基础,推导了Drucker-Prager准则可靠度判别的解析表达式,并通过Monte-Carlo法和一次可靠度方法验证了其正确性.应用所得到的公式分析了岩体强度参数的变异性对屈服准则判别结果的影响.结果表明,强度参数的变异性对Drucker-Prager准则可靠概率的影响程度不尽相同,在变异系数较大的情况下,它们对可靠概率的影响显著,不可忽略.为岩体屈服的可靠度判别提供了一条新思路.  相似文献   

7.
导数作为大学的重要内容,进入中学数学教材后,给传统的内容注入了生机与活力,为中学数学命题的研究提供了新视角,新方法.由于导数是研究函数性质的一个很好的工具,它的用途十分广泛,它在解决函数、不等式、解析几何等问题有独到的功能.因此,近几年的高考正逐年加大对导数问题的考查力度,本文通过对07年全国各地高考题的整理和分析寻找命题规律,希望能对今后的教学提供一点复习思路.……  相似文献   

8.
2010-2011学年度武汉市部分学校新高三起点调研测试的一道试题引起了我的注意.原题如下: 在正四面体P-ABC中,M为△ABC内(含边界)一动点,且点M到三个侧面PAB,PBC,PCA的距离成等差数列,则点M的轨迹是 A.一条线段 B.椭圆的一部分 C.双曲线的一部分 D.抛物线的一部分  相似文献   

9.
柳会珍  顾岚 《数学进展》2008,37(1):25-30
利用极值理论来考虑上证综指收益率的尾部.为了选择合理的超越门限,采用平均剩余函数和De-Haan矩估计相结合的方法.在学生t分布和广义误差分布的新患假设下,用GARCH和EGARCH新息的ARMA模型拟合指数收益率,并且使用极值理论的极大似然方法估计模型残差的尾指,估计结果表明收益率的尾指和模型的残差尾指基本一致.  相似文献   

10.
神奇的骰子     
骰子在许多游戏中出现,特别是赌博游戏,当中蕴含了丰富的数学知识,引起了许多数学爱好者们的关注和研究.一个普通的骰子是正六面体,它的六个面分别为数字1,2,3,4,5,6,还有许多不同的骰子、不同的玩法,充满了神奇,但神奇的骰子背后离不开数学知识的支撑.本文将介绍三  相似文献   

11.
带有免疫和传染年龄的传染病模型   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
建立了带有免疫和传染年龄的传染病模型,这种传染病带有病原体Ⅰ或Ⅱ,病原体Ⅰ可发展为病原体Ⅱ,得到了无病平衡态全局稳定和局部稳定的条件.当病原体Ⅰ不发展为病原体Ⅱ时,得到了病原体Ⅰ类平衡态的稳定性依赖于病原体Ⅱ类的基本再生指数.  相似文献   

12.
Two polyester-based polymer concretes with various volume content of diabase as an extender and aggregate are tested in creep under compression at different stress levels. The phenomenological and structural approaches are both used to analyze the experimental data. Common features of changes in the instantaneous and creep compliances are clarified, and a phenomenological creep model which accounts for the changes in the instantaneous compliance and in the retardation spectrum depending on the stress level is developed. It is shown that the model can be used to describe the experimental results of stress relaxation and creep under repeated loading. Modeling of the composite structure and subsequent solution of the optimization problem confirm the possibility of the existence of an interphase layer more compliant than the binder. A direct correlation between the interphase volume content and the instantaneous compliance of the composite is revealed. It is found that the distinction in nonlinearity of the viscoelastic behavior of the two polymer concretes under investigation can be due to the difference in their porosity. Submitted to the 11th International Conference on Mechanics of Composite Materials (Riga, June 11–15, 2000.) Translated from Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 147–164, 2000.  相似文献   

13.
Physico-chemical processes on the micro-scale require new modelling concepts because some effects become dominating that are negligible for macroscopic systems. This is illustrated by a new method for the production of micro-wells based on the placement of a small drop of toluene on a plate of polystyrene. After droplet evaporation, a micro-well is left. A mathematical model has been developed to understand the elementary processes of the micro-well formation. The model accounts for: (1) growth of the drop on the substrate, (2) evaporation process of the solvent, (3) dissolution of the substrate, (4) flow rate in the evaporating drop caused by the pinning effect, including the vertical velocity profile, and (5) increase in the concentration of dissolved material followed by precipitation. In the modelling and simulation process, it could be shown that the method of drop production also has a significant influence on the shape of the micro-wells.  相似文献   

14.
This paper considers a dependent risk model with diffusion for the surplus of an insurer, in which a current premium rate will be adjusted after a claim occurs and the adjusted rate is determined by the amount of the claim. At the same time, the diffusion is changed correspondingly. Using Rouché’s theorem, we first derive the closed-form solution for the Laplace transform of the survival probability in the dependent risk model. Then, using the Laplace transform, we derive a defective renewal equation satisfied by the survival probability. For the exponential claim sizes, we present the explicit recursion expression for the survival probability, by which we can exactly solve the survival probability step-by-step. We also illustrate the influence of the model parameters in the dependent risk model on the survival probability by numerical examples.  相似文献   

15.
In the paper we consider three classes of models describing carcinogenesis mutations. Every considered model is described by the system of (n+1) equations, and in each class three models are studied: the first is expressed as a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), the second—as a system of reaction–diffusion equations (RDEs) with the same kinetics as the first one and with the Neumann boundary conditions, while the third is also described by the system of RDEs but with the Dirichlet boundary conditions. The models are formulated on the basis of the Lotka–Volterra systems (food chains and competition systems) and in the case of RDEs the linear diffusion is considered. The differences between studied classes of models are expressed by the kinetic functions, namely by the form of kinetic function for the last variable, which reflects the dynamics of malignant cells (that is the last stage of mutations). In the first class the models are described by the typical food chain with favourable unbounded environment for the last stage, in the second one—the last equation expresses competition between the pre‐malignant and malignant cells and the environment is also unbounded, while for the third one—it is expressed by predation term but the environment is unfavourable. The properties of the systems in each class are studied and compared. It occurs that the behaviour of solutions to the systems of ODEs and RDEs with the Neumann boundary conditions is similar in each class; i.e. it does not depend on diffusion coefficients, but strongly depends on the class of models. On the other hand, in the case of the Dirichlet boundary conditions this behaviour is related to the magnitude of diffusion coefficients. For sufficiently large diffusion coefficients it is similar independently of the class of models, i.e. the trivial solution that is unstable for zero diffusion gains stability. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
We give a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an exponential attractor. The condition is formulated in the context of metric spaces. It also captures the quantitative properties of the attractor, i.e., the dimension and the rate of attraction. As an application, we show that the evolution operator for the wave equation with nonlinear damping has an exponential attractor.  相似文献   

17.
Recently Brutman and Passow considered Newman-type rational interpolation to |x| induced by arbitrary set of symmetric nodes in [-1,1] and gave the general estimation of the approximation error.By their methods one could establish the exact order of approximation for some special nodes. In the present paper we consider the special case where the interpolation nodes are the zeros of the Chebyshev polynomial of the second kind and prove that in this case the exact order of approximation is O(1/n|nn)  相似文献   

18.
为解决在远海海域选择岛屿建设救助基地的方案优化问题,建立了基于GIS和智能算法的双目标优化模型,采用自适应拉伸的拥挤距离计算公式,设计了自适应精英保留策略对算法进行改进,通过剖析决策者选择最优方案的基本原则,得到了性价比最高的优化方案。最后,以我国南海南沙群岛选择岛屿建设救助基地的方案优化为例进行分析,得到了较好结果。为验证文中改进算法的有效性,选取多个不同规模的方案进行分析比较,结果显示本文提出的算法在优化结果及解的分布性等方面均更优。本文研究为我国海上岛屿救助基地选址和在资源有限的情况下如何科学配置救助船队提供了分析方法。  相似文献   

19.
颤振分析中判断颤振临界速度的重要依据是系统V-g和V-f图,即系统特征值随参数的变化曲线.在几乎所有商用软件及自编程序的输出结果中,有时会出现所谓的"窜支"现象,这给颤振临界速度和颤振穿越分支及耦合形式的判断带来很大不便.通过隐函数定理可以证明,除重特征值点以外,系统特征值连续依赖于系统参数变化.依据多元向量值函数连续性,建立对特征值的排列算法,给出系统特征根轨迹的正确曲线,再输出V-g和V-f图数据,从而避免"窜支"现象.编制应用程序,通过几个典型算例对算法进行了验证.该工作能够有效简化颤振分析的后处理工作,提高分析效率.  相似文献   

20.
Summary Engineering and physical systems are often modeled as nonlinear differential equations with a vector λ of parameters and operated at a stable equilibrium. However, as the parameters λ vary from some nominal value λ0, the stability of the equilibrium can be lost in a saddle-node or Hopf bifurcation. The spatial relation in parameter space of λ0 to the critical set of parameters at which the stable equilibrium bifurcates determines the robustness of the system stability to parameter variations and is important in applications. We propose computing a parameter vector λ* at which the stable equilibrium bifurcates which is locally closest in parameter space to the nominal parameters λ0. Iterative and direct methods for computing these locally closest bifurcations are described. The methods are extensions of standard, one-parameter methods of computing bifurcations and are based on formulas for the normal vector to hypersurfaces of the bifurcation set. Conditions on the hypersurface curvature are given to ensure the local convergence of the iterative method and the regularity of solutions of the direct method. Formulas are derived for the curvature of the saddle node bifurcation set. The methods are extended to transcritical and pitchfork bifurcations and parametrized maps, and the sensitivity to λ0 of the distance to a closest bifurcation is derived. The application of the methods is illustrated by computing the proximity to the closest voltage collapse instability of a simple electric power system.  相似文献   

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