A Large Sample Approximation to the Profile Plug-in Upper Confidence Limit

We consider the problem of constructing a 1– upper confidence limit for the scalar parameter ₀ in the presence of the nuisance parameter vector ₀, when the data are discrete. The 'profile plug-in' upper confidence limit is introduced by Kabaila and Lloyd. This confidence limit is based on computing a P-value from an estimator of ₀, replacing the nuisance parameter by the profile maximum likelihood estimate for known, and equating to . Theoretical and numerical evidence for the good coverage properties of this confidence limit is presented by Kabaila and Lloyd. An upper confidence limit should be assessed not only by its coverage properties but also by how large this confidence limit is. We measure how large the profile plug-in upper limit is by using a large sample approximation to it. This large sample approximation is used to delineate further the good properties of this confidence limit.     

Quasi profile and directed likelihoods from estimating functions

Frequently, corresponding to a given estimating equation it would be desirable to have a scalar combinant having parametric derivative equal to the estimating function since such a combinant may serve as a quasi log likelihood. In general this cannot be achieved but it is nevertheless possible to define a quasi profile log likelihood and also a quasi directed likelihood, for an arbitrary one-dimensional parameter of interest and with the standard kind of distributional limit behaviour.     

On a Small Sample Adjustment for the Profile Score Function in Semiparametric Smoothing Models

We consider the profile score function in models with smooth and parametric components. If local respectively weighted likelihood estimation is used for fitting the smooth component, the resulting profile likelihood estimate for the parametric component is asymptotically efficient as shown in T. A. Severini and W. H. Wong (1992, Ann. Statist.20, 1768–1802). However, as in solely parametric models the profile score function is not unbiased. We propose a small sample bias adjustment which results by extending the correction suggested in P. McCullagh and R. Tibshirani (1990, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B52, 325–344) to the framework of semiparametric models.     

Computation of exact confidence limits from discrete data

Suppose that the data have a discrete distribution determined by (∞, ψ) where θ is the scalar parameter of interest and ψ is a nuisance parameter vector. The Buehler 1 - α upper confidence limit for θ is as small as possible, subject to the constraints that (a) its coverage probability is at least 1 - α and (b) it is a nondecreasing function of a pre-specified statisticT. This confidence limit has important biostatistical and reliability applications. The main result of the paper is that for a wide class of models (including binomial and Poisson), parameters of interest 9 and statisticsT (which possess what we call the “logical ordering” property) there is a dramatic increase in the ease with which this upper confidence limit can be computed. This result is illustrated numerically for θ a difference of binomial probabilities. Kabaila & Lloyd (2002) also show that ifT is poorly chosen then an assumption required for the validity of the formula for this confidence limit may not be satisfied. We show that for binomial data this assumption must be satisfied whenT possesses the “logical ordering” property.     

Some remarks on Bayesian inference for one-way ANOVA models

We consider the standard one-way ANOVA model; it is well-known that classical statistical procedures are based on a scalar non-centrality parameter. In this paper we explore both marginal likelihood and integrated likelihood functions for this parameter and we show that they exactly lead to the same answer. On the other hand, we prove that a fully Bayesian testing procedure may provide different conclusions, depending on what is considered to be the real quantity of interest in the model or, said differently, which are the competing hypotheses. We illustrate these issues via a real data example.     

A note on likelihood asymptotics in normal linear regression

Higher-order likelihood methods often give very accurate results. A way to evaluate accuracy is the comparison of the solutions with the exact ones of the classical theory, when these exist. To this end, we consider inference for a scalar regression parameter in the normal regression setting. In particular, we compare confidence intervals computed from the likelihood and its higher-order modifications with the ones based on the Studentt distribution. It is shown that higher-order likelihood methods give accurate approximations to exact results.     

Semiparametric Maximum Likelihood for Missing Covariates in Parametric Regression

We consider parameter estimation in parametric regression models with covariates missing at random. This problem admits a semiparametric maximum likelihood approach which requires no parametric specification of the selection mechanism or the covariate distribution. The semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) has been found to be consistent. We show here, for some specific models, that the semiparametric MLE converges weakly to a zero-mean Gaussian process in a suitable space. The regression parameter estimate, in particular, achieves the semiparametric information bound, which can be consistently estimated by perturbing the profile log-likelihood. Furthermore, the profile likelihood ratio statistic is asymptotically chi-squared. The techniques used here extend to other models.     

右删失数据下非线性回归模型的经验似然推断

考虑随机右删失数据下非线性回归模型,提出了模型中未知参数的调整的经验对数似然比统计量.在一定的条件下,证明了.所提出的的统计量具有渐近χ~2分布,由此结果构造了兴趣参数的置信域.通过模拟研究,对经典的经验似然、调整的经验似然和非线性最小二乘方法在有限样本下进行了比较,并对氯离子浓度试验数据进行了分析.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimates and Confidence Intervals of an M/M/R Queue with Heterogeneous Servers

This paper studies maximum likelihood estimates as well as confidence intervals of an M/M/R queue with heterogeneous servers under steady-state conditions. We derive the maximum likelihood estimates of the mean arrival rate and the three unequal mean service rates for an M/M/3 queue with heterogeneous servers, and then extend the results to an M/M/R queue with heterogeneous servers. We also develop the confidence interval formula for the parameter ρ, the probability of empty system P ₀, and the expected number of customers in the system E[N], of an M/M/R queue with heterogeneous servers     

Estimation of a structural linear regression model with a known reliability ratio

In this paper, we consider the estimation of the slope parameter of a simple structural linear regression model when the reliability ratio (Fuller (1987),Measurement Error Models, Wiley, New York) is considered to be known. By making use of an orthogonal transformation of the unknown parameters, the maximum likelihood estimator of and its asymptotic distribution are derived. Likelihood ratio statistics based on the profile and on the conditional profile likelihoods are proposed. An exact marginal posterior distribution of , which is shown to be at-distribution is obtained. Results of a small Monte Carlo study are also reported.The first author acknowledges partial finantial suport from CNPq-BRASIL.     

缺失数据下线性模型中回归参数的经验似然置信区域

在缺失样本下,构造了线性模型中参数的调整的经验似然置信域,数值模拟表明调整的经验似然置信域有较好的覆盖率和精度.     

Profile empirical likelihood for parametric and semiparametric models

This paper introduces a profile empirical likelihood and a profile conditionally empirical likelihood to estimate the parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters respectively for the parametric and semiparametric models. It is proven that these methods propose some efficient estimators of parameters of interest in the sense of least-favorable efficiency. Particularly, for the decomposable semiparametric models, an explicit representation for the estimator of parameter of interest is derived from the proposed nonparametric method. These new estimations are different from and more efficient than the existing estimations. Some examples and simulation studies are given to illustrate the theoretical results. The first author is supported by NNSF projects (10371059 and 10171051) of China. The second author is supported by a grant from The Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (#HKU7060/04P). The third author is supported by the University Research Committee of the University of Hong Kong and a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. HKU7323/01M).     

Stein shrinkage and second-order efficiency for semiparametric estimation of the shift

The problem of estimating the shift (or, equivalently, the center of symmetry) of an unknown symmetric and periodic function f observed in Gaussian white noise is considered. Using the blockwise Stein method, a penalized profile likelihood with a data-driven penalization is introduced so that the estimator of the center of symmetry is defined as the maximizer of the penalized profile likelihood. This estimator has the advantage of being independent of the functional class to which the signal f is assumed to belong and, furthermore, is shown to be semiparametrically adaptive and efficient. Moreover, the second-order term of the risk expansion of the proposed estimator is proved to behave at least as well as the second-order term of the risk of the best possible estimator using monotone smoothing filter. Under mild assumptions, this estimator is shown to be second-order minimax sharp adaptive over the whole scale of Sobolev balls with smoothness β > 1. Thus, these results extend those of [10], where second-order asymptotic minimaxity is proved for an estimator depending on the functional class containing f and β ≥ 2 is required.      

Maximum integrated likelihood estimator of the interest parameter when the nuisance parameter is location or scale

The problem of estimation of an interest parameter in the presence of a nuisance parameter, which is either location or scale, is studied. Two estimators are considered: the usual maximum likelihood estimator and the estimator based on maximization of the integrated likelihood function. The estimators are compared, asymptotically, with respect to the bias and with respect to the mean squared error. The examples are given.     

Empilrical likelihood for non-parametric regression models with missing responses: Multiple design case

Empirical likelihood(EL) ratio statistic on θ = g(x) is constructed based on the inverse probability weighted imputation approach in a nonparametric regression model Y = g(x) + ε(x ∈ [0,1]p) with fixed designs and missing responses,which asymptotically has χ12 distribution.This result is used to obtain a EL based confidence interval on θ.     

核实数据下删失线性EV模型的经验似然推断

本文考虑协变量带有误差的删失线性回归模型,借助于核实数据,对回归系数构造了两种经验对数似然比统计量,证明了所提出的估计的经验对数似然比统计量渐近收敛到一个自由度为1的独立χ2变量的加权和;而经调整后所得的调整的经验对数似然比统计量具有渐近标准χ2p分布,所得结果可以用来构造未知参数的置信域,通过模拟研究在置信域的精度及其平均区间长度大小方面进行了比较。     

缺失数据下半参数回归模型的经验似然推断

针对响应变量缺失下的半参数回归模型,构造模型中未知参数的经验对数似然比统计量,证明了所提出的统计量具有渐近χ2分布,由此构造未知参数的置信域,并就置信域的覆盖概率及区间长度方面,通过模拟研究与最小二乘法进行优劣比较.     

Ols parameter estimation for a linear paired confluent model

We investigate OLS parameter estimation for a linear paired model in the case of a passive experiment with errors in both variables. The explicit form of the OLS estimates is obtained, their equivalence to maximum likelihood estimates is demonstrated in the presence of normal errors, and estimate consistency is proved. The OLS estimates are compared analytically and numerically with known parameter estimates of “direct,” “orthogonal,” and “diagonal” regression models.     

Empirical likelihood for partial linear models

In this paper the empirical likelihood method due to Owen (1988,Biometrika,75, 237–249) is applied to partial linear random models. A nonparametric version of Wilks' theorem is derived. The theorem is then used to construct confidence regions of the parameter vector in the partial linear models, which has correct asymptotic coverage. A simulation study is conducted to compare the empirical likelihood and normal approximation based method. Research supported by NNSF of China and a grant to the first author for his excellent Ph.D. dissertation work in China. Research supported by Hong Kong RGC CERG No. HKUST6162/97P.     

An Extension of Generalized Linear Models to Finite Mixture Outcome Distributions

Finite mixture distributions arise in sampling a heterogeneous population. Data drawn from such a population will exhibit extra variability relative to any single subpopulation. Statistical models based on finite mixtures can assist in the analysis of categorical and count outcomes when standard generalized linear models (GLMs) cannot adequately express variability observed in the data. We propose an extension of GLMs where the response follows a finite mixture distribution and the regression of interest is linked to the mixture’s mean. This approach may be preferred over a finite mixture of regressions when the population mean is of interest; here, only one regression must be specified and interpreted in the analysis. A technical challenge is that the mixture’s mean is a composite parameter that does not appear explicitly in the density. The proposed model maintains its link to the regression through a certain random effects structure and is completely likelihood-based. We consider typical GLM cases where means are either real-valued, constrained to be positive, or constrained to be on the unit interval. The resulting model is applied to two example datasets through Bayesian analysis. Supporting the extra variation is seen to improve residual plots and produce widened prediction intervals reflecting the uncertainty. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.