基于AHP的可拓理论在高速公路养护质量评价中的研究

为使高速公路养护质量评价结果更全面,运用可拓理论,在补充相关评价指标的基础上,建立高速公路养护质量评价的物元模型,结合层次分析法计算得到随评价指标数值大小而动态变化的权系数,通过确定待评物元关于质量等级j的可拓关联度,得到高速公路养护质量等级,最后以东莞市某高速公路为例,验证了该方法的可行性.结果表明:可拓理论与层次分析法相结合的方法适用于高速公路养护质量评价,其评价结果与实际情况相符.     

基于可拓和组合赋权的矿井通风系统优化评价

矿井通风系统具有随机性、模糊性和不确定性等特征,一般单一的赋权评价法难以对其进行准确的优化评价.采用模糊层次分析法和熵权法的组合赋权法不仅可以提升对目标评价的准确性还能避免单一赋权的偶然性和局限性,结合可拓学的优度评价法,依据优度排序,得到最优方案.事实证明,基于组合赋权的可拓评价模型较其他评价方法更为客观,评价结果更加符合实际,可为解决类似优化方案问题提供一种新思路和方法.     

基于集对分析评价模型的城市交通态势判别

为提升道路交通态势判别精度,构建了交通态势判别集对分析模型,该模型从交通态势的同一性、差异性、对立性三个维度,构建了路段饱和度、行程时间比、行程速度的六元联系度函数,以及基于梯形模糊数截集的差异度系数取值函数。基于路段检测器数据,分别利用集对分析模型、模糊综合评价模型、行程时间比模型对交通态势进行判别,并将判别结果与《城市交通运行状况评价规范》(GB/T33171-201)中交通特征参数所表征态势等级进行误差分析,结果表明,集对分析模型、模糊综合评价模型、行程时间比模型的MSE误差值分别为0.12、0.17和0.46,证明集对分析法误差更小且抗干扰性更强.     

基于组合权重法的建筑施工企业应急能力可拓评价研究

针对建筑施工企业应急能力评价缺少指导性方法的现状,采用可拓物元模型对施工企业应急能力进行评价.针对应急管理过程中的时间节点特征,使用层次分析法进行施工企业应急能力评价指标体系建构,通过三角模糊数与熵值法结合的组合权重法确定各指标权重系数,采用可拓物元模型进行施工企业应急能力评价,在此基础上以某施工企业进行实例验证,确定该施工企业应急能力等级.     

模糊数学在企业创新能力评定中的应用

建立了企业创新的系统结构图,并利用模糊综合评价法建立了一个对企业创新能力进行评定的三级模糊综合评判的数学模型,采用层次分析法更加合理的确定了权重的分配,通过实例说明了该模型的使用方法,得到了更有效的结果.     

多层次模糊综合评价在城市交通承载力评价中的应用

城市交通承载力评价是一项复杂的系统二程.根据交通承载力的特点、评价过程及评价结果的模糊性,将城市交通承载力分为交通设施承载力和交通环境承载力,结合城市交通现状构建了交通承载力的评价指标体系.借助熵权法确定各评价指标的客观权重,并将其与模糊一致矩阵的主观赋权法相结合,提出基于组合权的多层次模糊综合评价法.评价结果表明,组合评价方法比单一评价方法更符合城市交通承载力的实际状况,从而为交通管理决策提供科学依据.     

基于模糊理论的绿色大学评价模型

绿色大学评价是一个多指标,多属性且具有模糊性的评价过程,由模糊层次分析法确立了评价指标权重,建立了绿色大学的模糊综合评价模型.利用提出的评价模型对高等院校进行评价能够更客观,更科学地反映绿色大学的创建情况.     

基于GAHP和云模型的军事组织安全文化评价方法

安全文化评价是军事组织安全文化建设进行协调、控制的重要环节.为实现军事组织安全文化的定量评价,分析了军事组织安全文化的特点,根据SMART原则建立了科学的评价指标体系,提出了一种基于群组层次分析法(GAHP)和云模型的安全文化评价方法.综合多名专家意见,利用群组层次分析法来确定各级指标权重,得出各指标的重要性度量,基于云模型实现评价主体的模糊语义性评价与定量评分的双向映射,并通过聚合计算得到综合评价结果.实例分析表明,所提算法具有较好的实用性和适用性,为客观评估军事组织安全文化建设水平提供了可行手段.     

基于无人机航拍和交通冲突理论的城市交叉口安全评价方法

现有城市交叉口安全评价方法多以交通事故数据统计为基础,方法存在数据收集时间较长、评价时间跨度大等不足,研究综合运用无人机航拍技术和交通冲突理论,对交叉口安全状况进行评价研究.首先,建立交叉口安全综合评价指标体系,体系由5个一级指标和15个二级指标构成.接着,提出基于交通冲突理论的城市交叉口层次分析-可拓安全评价模型,利用层次分析法的多层次性和可拓学的矛盾统一性从宏观角度综合评价城市交叉口的安全状况.其次,运用无人机航拍技术,获取全景的交叉口运行情况,提取交叉口渠化形式和交通冲突分布特征,并提出交叉口安全改善措施,运用微观仿真评估改善措施的有效性.最后,以天津市气象台路与平山道交叉口为例,运用无人机进行航拍,从航拍录像中提取交通冲突数据,运用层次分析-可拓安全评价模型,评估得出该交叉口的安全状况一般.另外,提出交通设计和交通信号控制的优化措施,运用VISSIM软件仿真验证,仿真结果显示:采用改善措施后,交叉口的行程时间减少11.02%,延误减少14.68%,排队长度减少13.64%,交叉口的运行效率得到了较好的提升.案例分析结果表明,提出的方法可用于城市交叉口的安全评价与优化.     

模糊层次评价在高职学生职业能力评价中的应用

职业能力可根据系统组成原理划分成职业特定技能、行业通用技能和核心技能三个层次.运用层次分析法建立层次结构模型,构建比较矩阵,计算出因素权重并做一致性检验.运用模糊评价方法确定影响因素的模糊判断矩阵,就可逆向确定各层次组成因素的得分,为高职学生职业能力层次和影响因素的判断提供了依据.对职业能力按层次进行模糊评价分析,为高职学生职业能力评价提供了新的方法.     

城市可持续发展综合评价的一种方法

用层次分析法设计城市可持续发展评价模型.采用熵技术支持下的层次分析法确定系统指标权重,用加权平均法对可持续发展状态进行综合评价.并对鞍山市进行实例分析,指出鞍山市可持续发展能力总体呈上升趋势,但表现一定的波动性,与鞍山市的发展现状相符.     

一类大系统模糊随机多目标决策的建模与求解方法

本文提出和建立了一类大系统模糊随机多目标决策（ＦＳＭＯＤＭ）模型，讨论了模糊事件的模糊概率的若干基本性质．在此基础上，将ＦＳＭＯＤＭ模型转化为清晰的多目标决策模型，并给出了递阶分解协调求解方法．把该模型应用到大连市水资源与经济发展规划研究中取得了令人满意的结果．     

A hybrid approach integrating Affinity Diagram, AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS for sustainable city logistics planning

City logistics initiatives are steps taken by municipal administrations to ameliorate the condition of goods transport in cities and reduce their negative impacts on city residents and their environment. Examples of city logistics initiatives are urban distribution centers, congestion pricing, delivery timing and access restrictions. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach based on Affinity Diagram, AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS for evaluating city logistics initiatives. Four initiatives namely vehicle sizing restrictions, congestion charging schemes, urban distribution center and access timing restrictions are considered.The proposed approach consists of four steps. The first step involves identification of criteria for assessing performance of city logistics initiatives using Affinity Diagram. The results are four categories of criteria namely technical, social, economical and environmental. In step 2, a decision making committee comprising of representatives of city logistics stakeholders is formed. These stakeholders are shippers, receivers, transport operators, end consumers and public administrators. The committee members weight the selected criteria using AHP. In step 3, the decision makers provide linguistic ratings to the alternatives (city logistics initiatives) to assess their performance against the selected criteria. These linguistic ratings are then aggregated using fuzzy TOPSIS to generate an overall performance score for each alternative. The alternative with the highest score is finally chosen as most suitable city logistics initiative for improving city sustainability. In the fourth step, we perform sensitivity analysis to evaluate the influence of criteria weights on the selection of the best alternative.The proposed approach is novel and can be practically applied for selecting sustainable city logistics initiatives for cities. Another advantage is its ability to generate solutions under limited quantitative information. An empirical application of the proposed approach is provided.     

Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: Fallacy of the popular methods

The fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (fuzzy AHP) is a very popular decision making method and literally thousands of papers have been published about it. However, we find the basic logic of this approach has problems. From its methodology, the definition and operational rules of fuzzy numbers not only oppose the main logic of fuzzy set theory, but also oppose the basic principles of the AHP. In dealing with the outcomes, fuzzy AHP does not give a generally accepted method to rank fuzzy numbers and a way to check the validity of the results. Besides, we discuss the validity of the Analytic Hierarchy/Network Process (AHP/ANP) in complex and uncertain environments and find that fuzzy ANP is a false proposition because there is no fuzzy priority in the super matrix which provides the basis for the ANP. Although fuzzy AHP has been applied in many cases and cited hundreds of times, we hoped that those who use fuzzy AHP would understand the problems associated with this method.     

A fuzzy extension of Analytic Hierarchy Process based on the constrained fuzzy arithmetic

The aim of the paper is to highlight the necessity of applying the concept of constrained fuzzy arithmetic instead of the concept of standard fuzzy arithmetic in a fuzzy extension of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Emphasis is put on preserving the reciprocity of pairwise comparisons during the computations. For deriving fuzzy weights from a fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix, we consider a fuzzy extension of the geometric mean method and simplify the formulas proposed by Enea and Piazza (Fuzzy Optim Decis Mak 3:39–62, 2004). As for the computation of the overall fuzzy weights of alternatives, we reveal the inappropriateness of applying the concept of standard fuzzy arithmetic and propose the proper formulas where the interactions among the fuzzy weights are taken into account. The advantage of our approach is elimination of the false increase of uncertainty of the overall fuzzy weights. Finally, we advocate the validity of the proposed fuzzy extension of AHP; we show by an illustrative example that by neglecting the information about uncertainty of intensity of preferences we lose an important part of knowledge about the decision making problem which can cause the change in ordering of alternatives.     

Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: A logarithmic fuzzy preference programming methodology

Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) proves to be a very useful methodology for multiple criteria decision-making in fuzzy environments, which has found substantial applications in recent years. The vast majority of the applications use a crisp point estimate method such as the extent analysis or the fuzzy preference programming (FPP) based nonlinear method for fuzzy AHP priority derivation. The extent analysis has been revealed to be invalid and the weights derived by this method do not represent the relative importance of decision criteria or alternatives. The FPP-based nonlinear priority method also turns out to be subject to significant drawbacks, one of which is that it may produce multiple, even conflict priority vectors for a fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix, leading to entirely different conclusions. To address these drawbacks and provide a valid yet practical priority method for fuzzy AHP, this paper proposes a logarithmic fuzzy preference programming (LFPP) based methodology for fuzzy AHP priority derivation, which formulates the priorities of a fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix as a logarithmic nonlinear programming and derives crisp priorities from fuzzy pairwise comparison matrices. Numerical examples are tested to show the advantages of the proposed methodology and its potential applications in fuzzy AHP decision-making.     

模糊层次分析法及其在优化建材连锁配送方案中的应用

本文首先说明模糊ＡＨＰ方法是在传统的ＡＨＰ方法的基础上，考虑到人们对复杂事物判断的模糊性，提出程度分析和综合决策理论，并介绍了模糊ＡＨＰ方法的主要理论及步骤。最后把它用于建材连锁配送系统模式的评价，可将专家对诸方案指标体系所进行的带有模糊性判断，通过定量计算，转化为对连锁配送系统模式的排序，从而达到选优的目的。     

On the extent analysis method for fuzzy AHP and its applications

In a paper by Chang [D.Y. Chang, Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP, European Journal of Operational Research 95 (1996) 649–655], an extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP was proposed to obtain a crisp priority vector from a triangular fuzzy comparison matrix. It is found that the extent analysis method cannot estimate the true weights from a fuzzy comparison matrix and has led to quite a number of misapplications in the literature. In this paper, we show by examples that the priority vectors determined by the extent analysis method do not represent the relative importance of decision criteria or alternatives and that the misapplication of the extent analysis method to fuzzy AHP problems may lead to a wrong decision to be made and some useful decision information such as decision criteria and fuzzy comparison matrices not to be considered. We show these problems to avoid any possible misapplications in the future.     

三标度AHP法在核应急决策中的应用

核事故发生时,采取正确的应急决策可以减轻事故的后果和危害.考虑到核应急决策的多目标性和模糊性,并针对传统AHP法的不足,利用三标度AHP法建立了多层次应急决策评估模型.模型较大程度的减小了评价的主观性,具有操作性强、稳定性好的特点.将模型与模糊层次模型计算结果进行比较,二者对方案的优劣排序是一致的.但模型在对最优方案的取舍上分辨率较高,对核应急决策具有实际的指导意义.     

Project Selection by Constrained Fuzzy AHP

The selection of a project among a set of possible alternatives is a difficult task decision makers have to face. Difficulties in selecting a project arise because of the different goals involved and because of the large number of attributes to consider. Our approach is based upon a fuzzy extension of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This paper focuses on the constraints that have to be considered within fuzzy AHP in order to take in account all the available information. This study demonstrates that by considering all the information deriving from the constraints better results in terms of certainty and reliability can be achieved.