函数变换缩小数据级比偏差效果的比较原则

针对缩小序列级比偏差的单调变换,研究了在函数的和变换与每一个变换缩小级比偏差效果优劣的比较原则基础上证明了两函数之正线性和变换缩小级比偏差效果介于这两个函数缩小级比偏差效果之间.因此如果两函数之正线性和变换不比任何一个单独变换效果差,其实质是两函数商的比值是常数,即两函数变换缩小级比偏差效果一样好,并通过实例验证了结论.     

基于离散指数函数优化GM(1,1)模型的再优化

分析了基于离散指数函数优化的GM(1,1)模型虽然大幅度提高建模的精度,但在构造新背景值过程中仍存在误差的原因,并针对此原因提出了进一步优化此背景值的方法,从而再次提高了建模的精度.经过严格理论验证该模型具有白化指数重合性,所以既适合用于低增长指数序列建模,也适合用于高增长指数序列建模.同时通过大量的数据模拟,并与原GM(1,1)模型及其基于离散指数函数优化的模型对比,发现本文优化的GM(1,1)新模型有非常高的模拟精度和预测精度.     

基于趋势修正的灰预测模型优化研究

针对序列增长趋势不完全满足准指数规律时的灰色预测建模问题,提出基于GM(1,1)模型与序列增长趋势之间偏差修正的建模方法,将GM(1,1)模型还原式中的常数项作为灰变量处理,加入调整系数以缩小拟合值与实际值之间的增长趋势差异,利用灰色离散模型拟合调整系数的变化过程,将得到的调整系数拟合值带入原时间响应函数,进而得到趋势修正的原始序列拟合值;运用新的建模方法对南京市第三产业用电量进行拟合和预测,证明了方法有效提升了GM(1,1)建模精度,并且拟合序列和实际序列的灰色绝对关联度得到提高.     

基于函数arccos(px+q)变换的灰色预测模型研究

借助于函数变换理论和灰色系统建模理论,并结合反余弦函数和线性函数的特点,提出了反余弦函数和线性函数相结合的变换方法并建立了一个改进的GM(1,1)模型.证明了这种变换一方面能提高序列的光滑比并压缩序列的级比;另一方面可以使还原误差减小.具体算例结果表明,经过反余弦函数和线性函数相结合建立的改进GM(1,1)模型的拟合精度优于传统GM(1,1)模型和基于反余弦函数变换的GM(1,1)模型的拟合精度.     

灰色系统预测模型GM(1,1)背景值重构研究

分析了灰色系统预测模型GM(1,1)对高增长指数序列建模适应性较差的原因,通过重构背景值计算公式,建立了一个适应性极强的灰色系统预测模型NGM(1,1),该模型具有对建模结果进行优化的能力.算例结果表明该模型对低增长指数序列和高增长指数序列建模都能获得最佳的拟合和预测精度,对经济、工程和自动控制等领域中的预测问题有较高的理论价值和实践意义.     

基于随机振荡序列的GM(1,1)模型性质及其应用

为了提高GM(1,1)模型对随机振荡序列的拟合和预测效果,提出了先将原始振荡序列变为单调增长序列,再对单调增长序列进行几何平均生成交换,然后建立GM(1,1)模型.通过实例计算表明,方法能够提高GM(1,1)模型的拟合精度,可以用于随机振荡序列的建模,从而扩大了GM(1,1)模型的应用范围.     

基于反余弦函数变换的灰色预测模型研究

提出了反余弦函数变换方法,证明了这种变换是级比压缩变换,能够提高序列光滑度,可以保持序列凹凸性,不会增大还原误差,满足数据变换的构造准则.通过具体算例表明,基于反余弦函数变换的GM(1,1)模型的预测精度优于传统GM(1,1)模型和基于幂函数变换的GM(1,1)模型,说明了该变换的有效性.     

同时优化背景值和灰导数的新非等间距GM(1,1)模型

结合GM(1,1)的建模过程,提出了以原始序列的一次累加生成序列为背景值的非等间距序列GM(1,1)模型的最原始形式;并基于灰模型的非齐次指数特性和求导的定义,从灰导数在离散点的生成出发,同时优化最原始的非等间距灰微分方程的灰导数和背景值,并建立新非等间距灰模型;新模型不仅提高了灰模型的拟合精度和预测精度,且拓宽了GM(1,1)的适用范围.     

基于随机振荡序列的DGM(1,1)模型的建模及应用

考虑直接用非单调、波动性强的随机振荡序列建模预测效果不理想的问题,通过进一步挖掘平移变换和几何平均变换的性质,证明了平移变换和几何平均变换的随机振荡序列更加符合DGM(1,1)模型建模条件,构建了基于随机振荡序列的DGM(1,1)模型建模步骤.运用算例验证了模型的有效性,且提高了DGM(1,1)模型的预测精度,扩大了DGM(1,1)模型的应用范围.     

一类准指数序列的模型优化

在传统GM(1,1)模型基础上,结合最小二乘法原理提出:对本身已具有准指数规律的原始序列直接进行建模,并在此基础上对新模型背景值进行适当优化.克服传统GM(1,1)模型建模过程中的盲目性,并提高了拟合与预测精度.     

单调序列的非齐次GM(1,1)模型

GM(1,1)模型的白化解为齐次指数形式,而一般数据呈非齐次指数形式,存在形式上的差异.本文运用非齐次级比与非齐次指数函数的对应关系,对原始序列中相邻数据做差处理,得到新的序列,将非齐次指数序列转换为齐次指数序列,再建立GM(1,1)模型.实例表明,运用初值优化和非齐次化能提高GM(1,1)模型的精度.     

Subsemigroup,ideal and congruence growth of free semigroups

The growth of cofinite subsemigroups of free semigroups is investigated. Lower and upper bounds for the sequence are given and it is shown to have superexponential growth of strict type nⁿ for finite free rank greater than 1. Ideal growth is shown to be exponential with strict type 2ⁿ and congruence growth is shown to be at least exponential. In addition we consider the case when the index is fixed and rank increasing, proving that for subsemigroups and ideals this sequence fits a polynomial of degree the index, whereas for congruences this fits an exponential equation of base the index. We use these results to describe an algorithm for computing values of these sequences and give a table of results for low rank and index.     

Efficient approximate linear programming for factored MDPs

Factored Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) provide a compact representation for modeling sequential decision making problems with many variables. Approximate linear programming (LP) is a prominent method for solving factored MDPs. However, it cannot be applied to models with large treewidth due to the exponential number of constraints. This paper proposes a novel and efficient approximate method to represent the exponentially many constraints. We construct an augmented junction graph from the factored MDP, and represent the constraints using a set of cluster constraints and separator constraints, where the cluster constraints play the role of reducing the number of constraints, and the separator constraints enforce the consistency of neighboring clusters so as to improve the accuracy. In the case where the junction graph is tree-structured, our method provides an equivalent representation to the original constraints. In other cases, our method provides a good trade-off between computation and accuracy. Experimental results on different models show that our algorithm performs better than other approximate linear programming algorithms on computational cost or expected reward.     

An optimal family of exponentially accurate one‐bit Sigma‐Delta quantization schemes

Sigma‐delta modulation is a popular method for analog‐to‐digital conversion of bandlimited signals that employs coarse quantization coupled with oversampling. The standard mathematical model for the error analysis of the method measures the performance of a given scheme by the rate at which the associated reconstruction error decays as a function of the oversampling ratio λ. It was recently shown that exponential accuracy of the form O(2^−rλ) can be achieved by appropriate one‐bit sigma‐delta modulation schemes. By general information‐entropy arguments, r must be less than 1. The current best‐known value for r is approximately 0:088. The schemes that were designed to achieve this accuracy employ the “greedy” quantization rule coupled with feedback filters that fall into a class we call “minimally supported.” In this paper, we study the discrete minimization problem that corresponds to optimizing the error decay rate for this class of feedback filters. We solve a relaxed version of this problem exactly and provide explicit asymptotics of the solutions. From these relaxed solutions, we find asymptotically optimal solutions of the original problem, which improve the best‐known exponential error decay rate to r ≈ 0.102. Our method draws from the theory of orthogonal polynomials; in particular, it relates the optimal filters to the zero sets of Chebyshev polynomials of the second kind. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

具有双参数的弱非线性方程的奇摄动解

讨论了一四阶具有双参数的弱非线性方程在有限区间上的奇摄动边值问题．在一定的假设下,首先,利用幂级数形式展开方法,构造了原问题的外部解A·D2其次,利用伸长变量,在左端点附近构造问题解的第一边界层校正项．然后,利用更强的伸长变量,仍然在左端点附近构造问题解的第二边界层校正项．第二边界层的厚度比第一边界层的厚度更小,形成在左端点附近的边界层的套层．最后利用微分不等式理论,证明了边值问题解的存在性、和在整个区间内一致有效性和渐近性态,得到了满意的结果．     

基于关联面积的变权组合预测方法及其应用

变权组合预测方法是一种应用非常广泛的组合预测方法,它能够有效提高组合预测方法的预测和拟合精度.为了提高拟合精度,利用各个单项预测方法与原始数据序列在两个相邻时刻的关联面积以及关联度,给出了一种确定变权组合预测模型变权重系数的方法.最后利用该变权重的组合预测模型建立了新疆建设兵团城镇化发展水平的变权组合预测模型,结果表明这类变权组合预测方法具有较高的预测和拟合精度.