A hybrid approach based on genetic algorithms to solve the problem of cutting structural beams in a metalwork company

This work presents a hybrid approach based on the use of genetic algorithms to solve efficiently the problem of cutting structural beams arising in a local metalwork company. The problem belongs to the class of one-dimensional multiple stock sizes cutting stock problem, namely 1-dimensional multiple stock sizes cutting stock problem. The proposed approach handles overproduction and underproduction of beams and embodies the reusability of remnants in the optimization process. Along with genetic algorithms, the approach incorporates other novel refinement algorithms that are based on different search and clustering strategies. Moreover, a new encoding with a variable number of genes is developed for cutting patterns in order to make possible the application of genetic operators. The approach is experimentally tested on a set of instances similar to those of the local metalwork company. In particular, comparative results show that the proposed approach substantially improves the performance of previous heuristics.     

证券价格长期波动控制系统的最优控制策略

探讨证券价格长期波动控制系统的最优控制问题.建立了在有效市场条件下证券价格长期波动的控制系统模型.为了使证券价格和内在价值按照人们预期的目标变化,探讨了对它们服从的系统采用经典信息结构下的随机最优控制策略问题.设计了使系统的输出跟踪证券内在价值的估计值,同时使调节控制的幅度尽可能小的性能指标,给出了最优控制策略的求解公式和计算过程,并给出了考虑系统性能的计算过程,对相应结果进行了分析.主要结论是:当价值对价格的均衡回归调整不足,或投资者对前期价值的增值预期乐观时,最优控制策略所起的作用在加强;而当价值对价格的均衡回归调整过度,或投资者对前期价值的增值预期悲观时,最优控制策略所起的作用在减弱.这些结果可以为完善证券市场和上市公司的监管提供理论依据     

Time Series Forecasting Based on the Logistic Curve

This paper presents a class of models which are designed for forecasting the net sales of a product when the stock of that product is believed to be subject to a saturation level. The forecast function for the stock takes the form of a general modified exponential, a family which includes the logistic as a special case. However, framing the model in terms of the net increase in the product enables a link to be made between the traditional approach to forecasting based on non-linear trend curves and the approach based on ARIMA models.     

Bayesian modeling of financial returns: A relationship between volatility and trading volume

The modified mixture model with Markov switching volatility specification is introduced to analyze the relationship between stock return volatility and trading volume. We propose to construct an algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods to estimate all the parameters in the model using a Bayesian approach. The series of returns and trading volume of the British Petroleum stock will be analyzed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国股市的羊群效应的ARCH检验模型与实证分析

本文提出一种检验羊群效应的方法 ,即通过检验个股截面收益的绝对偏差 (CSA D)与市场收益的非线性关系 ,来判断羊群效应是否显著 ,并对我国沪深两市的羊群效应进行了实证分析 ,结果发现我国沪深两市存在一定程度的羊群效应 .     

A column generation heuristic for the two-dimensional two-staged guillotine cutting stock problem with multiple stock size

We consider a two-dimensional cutting stock problem where stock of different sizes is available, and a set of rectangular items has to be obtained through two-staged guillotine cuts. We propose a heuristic algorithm, based on column generation, which requires as its subproblem the solution of a two-dimensional knapsack problem with two-staged guillotines cuts. A further contribution of the paper consists in the definition of a mixed integer linear programming model for the solution of this knapsack problem, as well as a heuristic procedure based on dynamic programming. Computational experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, which obtains very small optimality gaps and outperforms the heuristic algorithm proposed by Cintra et al. [3].     

A sequential heuristic procedure for one-dimensional cutting

The article examines the Sequential Heuristic Procedure (SHP) for optimising one-dimensional stock cutting when all stock lengths are different. In order to solve a bicriterial multidimensional knapsack problem with side constraints a lexicographic approach is applied. An item-oriented solution was found through a combination of approximations and heuristics that minimize the influence of ending conditions leading to almost optimal solutions. The computer program CUT was developed, based on the proposed algorithm. Two sample problems are presented and solved. A statistical analysis of parameters that affect material utilisation was also made.     

Efficient nonlinear reanalysis for structural modifications

In this paper an approach for nonlinear reanalysis based on residual increment approximations (RIA) is presented. The method requires only the evaluation of residual vectors, which can be done very fast and efficient. Moreover, the results are improved by using a rational approximation method. The approach is general and can be applied to linear and nonlinear problems with different kind of design modifications. Furthermore, the proposed method is very efficient and easily to implement in existing finite element programs. (© 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Solving one-dimensional cutting stock problems exactly with a cutting plane algorithm

When solving the one-dimensional cutting stock problem (1D CSP) as an integer linear programming problem one has to overcome computational difficulties arising from the integrality condition and a huge number of variables. In the Gilmore–Gomory approach the corresponding continuous relaxation is solved via column generation techniques followed by an appropriate rounding of the in general non-integer solution. Obviously, there is no guarantee of obtaining an optimal solution in this way but it is extremely effective in practice. However, in two- and three-dimensional cutting stock problems the heuristics are not so good which necessitates the research of effective exact methods. In this paper we present an exact solution approach for the 1D CSP which is based on a combination of the cutting plane method and the column generation technique. Results of extensive computational experiments are reported.     

New model and heuristic solution approach for one-dimensional cutting stock problem with usable leftovers

In the one-dimensional cutting stock problem with usable leftovers (1DCSPUL), items of the current order are cut from stock bars to minimize material cost. Here, stock bars include both standard ones bought commercially and old leftovers generated in processing previous orders, and cutting patterns often include new leftovers that are usable in processing subsequent orders. Leftovers of the same length are considered to be of the same type. The number of types of leftovers should be limited to simplify the cutting process and reduce the storage area. This paper presents an integer programming model for the 1DCSPUL with limited leftover types and describes a heuristic algorithm based on a column-generation procedure to solve it. Computational results show that the proposed approach is more effective than several published algorithms in reducing trim loss, especially when the number of types of leftovers is limited.     

The combined cutting stock and lot-sizing problem in industrial processes

Despite its great applicability in several industries, the combined cutting stock and lot-sizing problem has not been sufficiently studied because of its great complexity. This paper analyses the trade-off that arises when we solve the cutting stock problem by taking into account the production planning for various periods. An optimal solution for the combined problem probably contains non-optimal solutions for the cutting stock and lot-sizing problems considered separately. The goal here is to minimize the trim loss, the storage and setup costs. With a view to this, we formulate a mathematical model of the combined cutting stock and lot-sizing problem and propose a solution method based on an analogy with the network shortest path problem. Some computational results comparing the combined problem solutions with those obtained by the method generally used in industry—first solve the lot-sizing problem and then solve the cutting stock problem—are presented. These results demonstrate that by combining the problems it is possible to obtain benefits of up to 28% profit. Finally, for small instances we analyze the quality of the solutions obtained by the network shortest path approach compared to the optimal solutions obtained by the commercial package AMPL.     

Periodic control of intermittent demand items: theory and empirical analysis

In this paper we propose a modification to the standard forecasting, periodic order-up-to-level inventory control approach to dealing with intermittent demand items, when the lead-time length is shorter than the average inter-demand interval. In particular, we develop an approach that relies upon the employment of separate estimates of the inter-demand intervals and demand sizes, when demand occurs, directly for stock control purposes rather than first estimating mean demand and then feeding the results in the stock control procedure. The empirical performance of our approach is assessed by means of analysis on a large demand data set from the Royal Air Force (RAF, UK). Our work allows insights to be gained on the interactions between forecasting and stock control as well as on demand categorization-related issues for forecasting and inventory management purposes.     

An effective solution for a real cutting stock problem in manufacturing plastic rolls

We confront a practical cutting stock problem from a production plant of plastic rolls. The problem is a variant of the well-known one dimensional cutting stock, with particular constraints and optimization criteria defined by the experts of the company. We start by giving a problem formulation in which optimization criteria have been considered in linear hierarchy according to expert preferences, and then propose a heuristic solution based on a GRASP algorithm. The generation phase of this algorithm solves a simplified version which is rather similar to the conventional one dimensional cutting stock. To do that, we propose a Sequential Heuristic Randomized Procedure (SHRP). Then in the repairing phase, the solution of the simplified problem is transformed into a solution to the real problem. For experimental study we have chosen a set of problem instances of com-mon use to compare SHRP with another recent approach. Also, we show by means of examples, how our approach works over instances taken from the real production process. All authors are supported by MEC-FEDER Grant TIN2007-67466-C02-01 and by contract CN-05-127 of the University of Oviedo and the company ERVISA, and by FICYT under grant BP04-021.     

Smoothing Sample Extremes with Dynamic Models

The study of extreme values is of crucial interest in many contexts. The concentration of pollutants, the sea-level and the closing prices of stock indexes are only a few examples in which the occurrence of extreme values may lead to important consequences. In the present paper we are interested in detecting trend in sample extremes. A common statistical approach used to identify trend in extremes is based on the generalized extreme value distribution, which constitutes a building block for parametric models. However, semiparametric procedures imply several advantages when exploring data and checking the model. This paper outlines a semiparametric approach for smoothing sample extremes, based on nonlinear dynamic modelling of the generalized extreme value distribution. The relative merits of this approach are illustrated through two real examples.AMS 2000 Subject Classification. Primary—62G32, 62G05, 62M10     

用自回归模型预测中国股市未来现金股利水平

对中国股市1996年以后所发放的现金股利的分布规律进行了研究,发现中国股市现金股利增量时间序列近似符合平稳过程。在此基础上探讨了利用线性模型技术的自回归(AR)模型对未来股利水平进行预测的一些技术问题,然后运用蒙特卡罗技术对现金股利增量进行了模拟试验,产生了足够多的数据并得出了拟合预报方程。最后对未来四十年中国股市现金股利的发放水平进行了预测。     

General linear formulations of stochastic dominance criteria

We develop and implement linear formulations of general Nth order stochastic dominance criteria for discrete probability distributions. Our approach is based on a piece-wise polynomial representation of utility and its derivatives and can be implemented by solving a relatively small system of linear inequalities. This approach allows for comparing a given prospect with a discrete set of alternative prospects as well as for comparison with a polyhedral set of linear combinations of prospects. We also derive a linear dual formulation in terms of lower partial moments and co-lower partial moments. An empirical application to historical stock market data suggests that the passive stock market portfolio is highly inefficient relative to actively managed portfolios for all investment horizons and for nearly all investors. The results also illustrate that the mean–variance rule and second-order stochastic dominance rule may not detect market portfolio inefficiency because of non-trivial violations of non-satiation and prudence.     

Branch-and-price algorithms for the dual bin packing and maximum cardinality bin packing problem

There appear to be two versions of the Dual Bin Packing problem in the literature. In addition, one of the versions has a counterpart in the cutting stock literature, known as the Skiving Stock Problem. This paper outlines branch-and-price algorithms for both. We introduce combinatorial upper bounds and well-performing heuristics from the literature in the branch-and-price framework. Extensive computational tests indicate that the branch-and-price approach is superior to the existing branch-and-bound procedures, based on combinatorial bounds. The tests illustrate the influence of different problem characteristics on the computation time and the limits of the branch-and-price approach.     

A hybrid genetic algorithm-heuristic for a two-dimensional orthogonal packing problem

In this paper we address a two-dimensional (2D) orthogonal packing problem, where a fixed set of small rectangles has to be placed on a larger stock rectangle in such a way that the amount of trim loss is minimized. The algorithm we propose hybridizes a placement procedure with a genetic algorithm based on random keys. The approach is tested on a set of instances taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computation results validate the quality of the solutions and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

A network-based data mining approach to portfolio selection via weighted clique relaxations

We introduce a new network-based data mining approach to selecting diversified portfolios by modeling the stock market as a network and utilizing combinatorial optimization techniques to find maximum-weight s-plexes in the obtained networks. The considered approach is based on the weighted market graph model, which is used for identifying clusters of stocks according to a correlation-based criterion. The proposed techniques provide a new framework for selecting profitable diversified portfolios, which is verified by computational experiments on historical data over the past decade. In addition, the proposed approach can be used as a complementary tool for narrowing down a set of “candidate” stocks for a diversified portfolio, which can potentially be analyzed using other known portfolio selection techniques.     

Effective New Product Decisions for Supermarkets

Current methods by which supermarkets decide which new products to stock are reviewed. Certain limitations of these subjective and ad hoc procedures are suggested and an alternative approach based on a screening technique is developed. The parameters of this method are shown to depend explicitly upon the observed attributes of past successful products and the opportunity costs associated with the decision of the supermarket buyer.It is demonstrated how the structure of the problem could lead naturally to its formulation in terms of a modified form of classificatory analysis. The value and economy of this approach are illustrated and discussed.