Statistical analysis of hierarchical stochastic models: Examples and approaches

This paper introduces and illustrates the concept of hierarchical or random parameter stochastic process models. These models arise when members of a population each generate a stochastic process governed by certain parameters and the values of the parameters may be viewed as single realizations of random variables. The paper treats the estimation of the individual parameter values and the parameters of the superpopulation distribution. Examples from system reliability, pharmacokinetic compartment models, and criminal careers are introduced; a reliability (Poisson process-exponential interval) process is examined in greater detail. An explicit, approximate, robust estimator of individual (log) failure rates is presented for the case of a long-tailed (Studentt) superpopulation. This estimator exhibits desirable limited shrinkage properties, refusing to borrow unjustified strength. Numerical properties of such estimators are described more fully elsewhere.     

Poisson process with fuzzy rates

In a stochastic homogeneous Poisson process, interarrival times are independent and identically distributed (iid) exponential random variables whose parameter is called the rate of the process. By using fuzzy variables to describe the parameter, a Poisson process whose rates are fuzzy variables is established. Based on the random fuzzy theory, relationship between the renewal number and fuzzy rates is discussed. As an application, a random fuzzy compound Poisson process is investigated.     

Fuzzy random renewal process and renewal reward process

So far, there have been several concepts about fuzzy random variables and their expected values in literature. One of the concepts defined by Liu and Liu (2003a) is that the fuzzy random variable is a measurable function from a probability space to a collection of fuzzy variables and its expected value is described as a scalar number. Based on the concepts, this paper addresses two processes—fuzzy random renewal process and fuzzy random renewal reward process. In the fuzzy random renewal process, the interarrival times are characterized as fuzzy random variables and a fuzzy random elementary renewal theorem on the limit value of the expected renewal rate of the process is presented. In the fuzzy random renewal reward process, both the interarrival times and rewards are depicted as fuzzy random variables and a fuzzy random renewal reward theorem on the limit value of the long-run expected reward per unit time is provided. The results obtained in this paper coincide with those in stochastic case or in fuzzy case when the fuzzy random variables degenerate to random variables or to fuzzy variables.     

Parametric Estimation of a Boolean Segment Process with Stochastic Restoration Estimation

Abstract

We propose a stochastic restoration estimation (SRE) algorithm to estimate the parameters of the length distribution of a boolean segment process. A boolean segment process is a stochastic process obtained by considering the union of independent random segments attached to random points independently scattered on the plane. Each iteration of the SRE algorithm has two steps: first, censored segments are restored; second, based on these restored data, parameter estimations are updated. With a usually straightforward implementation, this algorithm is particularly interesting when censoring effects are difficult to take into account. We illustrate this method in two situations where the parameter of interest is either the mean of the segment length distribution or the variance of its logarithm. Its application to vine shoot length distribution estimation is presented.     

Lower bound for the mean project completion time in dynamic PERT networks

We apply the stochastic dynamic programming to obtain a lower bound for the mean project completion time in a PERT network, where the activity durations are exponentially distributed random variables. Moreover, these random variables are non-static in that the distributions themselves vary according to some randomness in society like strike or inflation. This social randomness is modelled as a function of a separate continuous-time Markov process over the time horizon. The results are verified by simulation.     

The value of the stochastic solution in multistage problems

We generalize the definition of the bounds for the optimal value of the objective function for various deterministic equivalent models in multistage stochastic programs. The parameters EVPI and VSS were introduced for two-stage models. The parameter EVPI, the expected value of perfect information, measures how much it is reasonable to pay to obtain perfect information about the future. The parameter VSS, the value of the stochastic solution, allows us to obtain the goodness of the expected solution value when the expected values are replaced by the random values for the input variables. We extend the definition of these parameters to the multistage stochastic model and prove a similar chain of inequalities with the lower and upper bounds depending substantially on the structure of the problem. This research has been partially supported by the grants, 1/BBVA 00038.16421/2004 from Fundación BBVA, SEJ2005-05549/ECON from Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia and the grant GRUPOS79/04 from the Generalitat Valenciana, Spain.     

Partially exchangeable processes indexed by the vertices of a k-tree constructed via reinforcement

We define a reinforced stochastic process of random variables indexed by the vertices of a k-tree and with values in a Polish space. The work presents a natural extension from an exchangeable to a partially exchangeable setting of previous work done by the authors.     

A semigroup approach to the study of a general stochastic epidemic

A general stochastic epidemic, with immigration, in a large population is examined, introducing exponentially distributed latent and incubation periods. By means of semigroups, existence and uniqueness are proved for the solution of the initial-value problem arising from the stochastic model proposed. Equations for expected values of the random variables describing the epidemic are derived rigorously from the Kolmogorov equations of the process. Conditions for the extinction of the epidemic are also obtained.     

Continuity and Stability of a Quadratic Mixed-Integer Stochastic Program

For the two-stage quadratic stochastic program where the second-stage problem is a general mixed-integer quadratic program with a random linear term in the objective function and random right-hand sides in constraints, we study continuity properties of the second-stage optimal value as a function of both the first-stage policy and the random parameter vector. We also present sufficient conditions for lower or upper semicontinuity, continuity, and Lipschitz continuity of the second-stage problem's optimal value function and the upper semicontinuity of the optimal solution set mapping with respect to the first-stage variables and/or the random parameter vector. These results then enable us to establish conclusions on the stability of optimal value and optimal solutions when the underlying probability distribution is perturbed with respect to the weak convergence of probability measures.     

Segmentation of Stochastic Images using Stochastic Extensions of the Ambrosio-Tortorelli and the Random Walker Model

We discuss methods based on stochastic PDEs for the segmentation of images with uncertain gray values resulting from measurement errors and noise. Our approach yields a reliable precision estimate for the segmentation result, and it allows us to quantify the robustness of edges in noisy images and under gray value uncertainty. The ansatz space for such images identifies gray values with random variables. For their discretization we utilize generalized polynomial chaos expansions and the generalized spectral decomposition method. This leads to the stochastic generalization of the Ambrosio-Tortorelli approximation of the Mumford-Shah functional. Moreover, we present the extension of the random walker segmentation for our stochastic images, which is based on an identification of the graph weights with random variables. We demonstrate the performance of the methods on a data set obtained from a digital camera as well as real medical ultrasound data. (© 2011 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Stochastic programs with binary distributions: structural properties of scenario trees and algorithms

Binary random variables often refer to such as customers that are present or not, roads that are open or not, machines that are operable or not. At the same time, stochastic programs often apply to situations where penalties are accumulated when demand is not met, travel times are too long, or profits too low. Typical for these situations is that the penalties imply a partial order on the scenarios, leading to a partition of the scenarios into two sets: those that can result in penalties for some decisions, and those that never lead to penalties. We demonstrate how this observation can be used to efficiently calculate out-of-sample values, find good scenario trees and generally simplify calculations. Most of our observations apply to general integer random variables, and not just the 0/1 case.     

一种考虑属性具有关联性的正态随机多属性决策方法

针对属性具有关联性的正态随机多属性决策问题,给出一种决策方法。首先,将正态随机变量形式的属性值进行规范化;然后,在考虑属性之间具有关联性的情况下,运用正态随机变量计算公式和Choquet积分计算公式,对规范化后的属性值进行集结,得到各方案的正态随机变量形式的综合评价值。进一步地,依据事先定义的正态随机变量的序关系确定规则,对各方案的综合评价值进行排序,进而确定方案的排序结果。最后,通过一个算例说明了本文给出方法的可行性和有效性。     

The generalized well-posedness of the Cauchy problem for an abstract stochastic equation with multiplicative noise

We study the existence, uniqueness, and stability of a solution to the Cauchy problem for a stochastic differential equation with multiplicative noise in the spaces of generalized random variables with values in a Hilbert space.     

Sufficient conditions for stochastic equality of two distributions under some partial orders

We establish some conditions for stochastic equality of two nonnegative random variables which are ordered with respect to variability ordering or with respect to mean residual life ordering or with respect to second order stochastic ordering.     

Optimal PID control in case of random initial conditions

The aim of this presentation is to construct a robust optimal PID feedback controller, taking into account stochastic uncertainties in the initial conditions. Usually, a precomputed feedback control is based on exactly known model parameters. However, in practice, often exact information about model parameters and initial values is not given. Hence, having an inital point, which differs from the nominal values, a standard precomputed controller may produce bad results. Supposing now that the probability distribution of the random parameter variations is known, in the following stochastic optimisation methods will be applied in order to obtain robust optimal feedback controls. Taking into account stochastic parameter variations at the initial point, the method works with expected total costs arising from the primary control expenses and the tracking error. Furthermore, the free regulator parameters are selected then such that the expected total costs are minimized. After Taylor expansion to calculate expected cost functions and a few transformations an approximate deterministic substitute control problem follows. Here, retaining only linear terms, approximation of expectations and variances of the expected cost functions can be calculated explicitly. By means of splines, numerical approximations of the objective function and the differential equations are obtained then. Using stochastic optimization methods, random parameter variations are incorporated into the optimal control process. Hence, robust optimal feedback controls are obtained. (© 2009 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Optimal Guaranteed Cost Control of Stochastic Discrete-Time Systems with States and Input Dependent Noise Under Markovian Switching

A problem of robust guaranteed cost control of stochastic discrete-time systems with parametric uncertainties under Markovian switching is considered. The control is simultaneously applied to both the random and the deterministic components of the system. The noise (the random) term depends on both the states and the control input. The jump Markovian switching is modeled by a discrete-time Markov chain and the noise or stochastic environmental disturbance is modeled by a sequence of identically independently normally distributed random variables. Using linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) approach, the robust quadratic stochastic stability is obtained. The proposed control law for this quadratic stochastic stabilization result depended on the mode of the system. This control law is developed such that the closed-loop system with a cost function has an upper bound under all admissible parameter uncertainties. The upper bound for the cost function is obtained as a minimization problem. Two numerical examples are given to demonstrate the potential of the proposed techniques and obtained results.     

Implicit Stochastic Runge–Kutta Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations

In this paper we construct implicit stochastic Runge–Kutta (SRK) methods for solving stochastic differential equations of Stratonovich type. Instead of using the increment of a Wiener process, modified random variables are used. We give convergence conditions of the SRK methods with these modified random variables. In particular, the truncated random variable is used. We present a two-stage stiffly accurate diagonal implicit SRK (SADISRK2) method with strong order 1.0 which has better numerical behaviour than extant methods. We also construct a five-stage diagonal implicit SRK method and a six-stage stiffly accurate diagonal implicit SRK method with strong order 1.5. The mean-square and asymptotic stability properties of the trapezoidal method and the SADISRK2 method are analysed and compared with an explicit method and a semi-implicit method. Numerical results are reported for confirming convergence properties and for comparing the numerical behaviour of these methods. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Limit theory for the empirical extremogram of random fields

Regularly varying stochastic processes are able to model extremal dependence between process values at locations in random fields. We investigate the empirical extremogram as an estimator of dependence in the extremes. We provide conditions to ensure asymptotic normality of the empirical extremogram centred by a pre-asymptotic version. The proof relies on a CLT for exceedance variables. For max-stable processes with Fréchet margins we provide conditions such that the empirical extremogram centred by its true version is asymptotically normal. The results of this paper apply to a variety of spatial and space–time processes, and to time series models. We apply our results to max-moving average processes and Brown–Resnick processes.     

The dynamic multilevel assignment problem as a stochastic extremal process

This paper considers the multilevel assignment problem (i.e. the assignment problem where the supply alternatives are ranked in hierarchical levels) under the assumption that the utility components for each pairwise matching are stochastic. A dynamic version of the multilevel stochastic assignment model is developed, where both demand and supply evaluate alternatives according to a stochastic extremal process, i.e. a process where the maximum of a sequence of random variables is taken into account. The probability distributions of the random variables which describe the joint dynamic behaviour of demand and supply are found. It is also shown that the assignment probabilities assume the structure of a nested-logit model.     

Imprecise stochastic orders and fuzzy rankings

We extend the notion of stochastic order to the pairwise comparison of fuzzy random variables. We consider expected utility, stochastic dominance and statistical preference, which are related to the comparisons of the expectations, distribution functions and medians of the underlying variables, and discuss how to generalize these notions to the fuzzy case, when an epistemic interpretation is given to the fuzzy random variables. In passing, we investigate to which extent the earlier extensions of stochastic dominance and expected utility to the comparison of sets of random variables can be useful as fuzzy rankings.