女性吸毒者在HIV/AIDS传播中的作用

利用数学模型,探讨了女性吸毒者在HIV/AIDS传播中的作用.通过理论分析和数值模拟,揭示了女性吸毒者对HIV/AIDS传播和流行的重要作用:当HIV/AIDS在吸毒人群和一般男性人群中流行时,若切断女性吸毒人群和一般男性人群间的传播途径(商业性行为),则疾病不但在一般男性人群中会消亡,在一定的条件下,甚至会在吸毒人群中消亡.     

数学-艾滋病

本文介绍HIV/AIDS传播数学模型,主要包括AIDS患者初期增长数、性传染病传播的经典模型、HIV/AIDS传播动态模型和危险行为模型等。此外,还介绍这些数学模型目前研究结果和未解决的问题。     

带有性别结构的HIV/AIDS模型动力学分析和最优控制

通过考虑同性接触与异性接触来研究HIV/AIDS的传播,建立带有性别结构的HIV/AIDS模型.根据下一代矩阵法求出基本再生数.证明当R_(0)<1时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,当R_(0)> 1时,地方病平衡点是存在的,并且疾病是一致持续的,并通过数值模拟来验证结论.提出一个最优控制问题并利用庞特里亚金极大值原理进行了求解.拟合结果表明我国未来几年患病人数仍会不断攀升.     

具有桥梁人群的HIV模型的研究

研究了具有桥梁人群(从事性服务的女性静脉吸毒者)的艾滋病模型.在桥梁人群内部建立一个DI模型.通过定性分析,证明了各类平衡点的稳定性,从而判断艾滋病流行与否.     

一种梅毒模型的稳定性分析

根据人类感染梅毒的方式建立了一种新的数学模型,整个人口被分成四个组:注射吸毒者,女性性工作者,性工作者的客人以及MSM人群.通过对模型的研究和分析得到了模型的基本再生数R_0,还进一步研究了平衡点的存在性和稳定性,当R_01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,疾病将会被消除;当R_0 1时,疾病是一致持续的而且给出了地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分性条件,疾病将持续流行.     

HIV病毒传播的动力学研究的同伦映射解法

研究了艾滋病病毒的传播的一个动力学模型．利用同伦映射理论和方法得到了HIV流行性传染病区域的人群传播规律．     

一类具有VCT意识的随机HIV/AIDS模型的动力学分析

建立了一类具有自愿咨询和检测(VCT)意识的随机HIV/AIDS传染病模型,利用停时理论等方法证明了随机模型正解的全局存在唯一性.其次,分析了该随机模型的解在相应确定性模型的无病平衡点与地方病平衡点附近的渐近行为,并得到了随机模型解的平均持续与灭绝性的充分条件.最后,通过数值模拟进一步显示了模型的动力学行为.     

一类非线性动力系统的数值分析及控制策略研究

根据艾滋病在新疆的流行特点,建立了一个非线性动力系统的数学模型来研究艾滋病在新疆高危人群中传播的规律.通过查阅大量的统计数据和文献资料,确定了模型中部分参数的具体数值,然后通过数据拟合的方法得到了各个高危人群中的HIV病毒的传染性系数.在模型中,选择2004年底(2005年初)作为系统的初始点,预测了艾滋病未来几年内在新疆的流行趋势.最后,提出并比较遏止艾滋病传播的各项干预措施.     

一类具有双线性传染率的HIV/AIDS病毒动力学改进模型

针对HIV/AIDS传播的具有常数移民和指数出生的SI型模型,为了更加符合实际意义,对具有双线性传染率的模型进行局部改进,并对改进后的动力学模型进行了简化.对于改进后的模型,证明了平衡点的存在与局部稳定性,并证明了传染病毒的灭绝与持续性,得到了传染病毒的基本再生数.结果表明:当单位时间内从外界迁入人口中染病者的比例系数c近似等于零时,基本再生数小于1时,传染病毒最终灭绝;当基本再生数大于1时,模型存在唯一的正平衡点,且是局部渐近稳定的,说明传染病毒一致持续存在.     

具有蛋白酶抑制剂治疗的HIV病毒的传染病模型分析

建立了T细胞以胸腺和自身有丝分裂进行增殖且具有蛋白酶抑制剂治疗的HIV传染病模型.通过分析该传染病模型,得到蛋白酶抑制剂失效的临界阈值σ和平衡点存在的条件,证明了在不同参数范围内的稳定性.通过对模型的理论分析和数值模拟,发现当σσ,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,即疾病消失.当σσ,正平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,即HIV病毒流行.且得到σ的值越低,基本再生数R_0的值也越低,即当蛋白酶抑制剂的有效率越高,使得艾滋病患者的免疫功能提高.降低被感染T细胞的死亡率,也使病毒的输入率降低,从而更有利的控制病毒的传播.     

Study on a HIV/AIDS model with application to Yunnan province,China

This paper presents an epidemic model aiming at the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Yunnan, China. The total population in the model is restricted within high risk population. By the epidemic characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Yunnan province, the population is divided into two groups: injecting drug users (IDUs) and people engaged in commercial sex (PECS) which includes female sex workers (FSWs), and clients of female sex workers (C). For a better understanding of HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics, we do some necessary mathematical analysis. The conditions and thresholds for the existence of four equilibria are established. We compute the reproduction number for each group independently, and show that when both the reproduction numbers are less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable. The local stabilities for other equilibria including two boundary equilibria and one positive equilibrium are figured out. When we omit the infectivity of AIDS patients, global stability of these equilibria are obtained. For the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit as much as possible prevalence data publicly available for Yunnan. Increasing strength of the control measure on high risk population is necessary to reduce the HIV/AIDS in Yunnan.     

System Dynamic simulation of treatment policies to address colliding epidemics of tuberculosis,drug resistant tuberculosis and injecting drug users driven HIV in Russia

The explosive increase in the number of people infected with tuberculosis (TB),multi drug resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB), and injecting drug users (IDU)HIV/AIDS has become a serious public health challenge in Russia. The WorldHealth Organization is recommending policies including simultaneous use ofhighly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) to treat HIV/AIDS and second linedrugs to treat MDRTB. We developed a System Dynamics simulation model torepresent the dynamic transmission of TB, MDRTB and human immunodeficiency virus(HIV). The model simulated scenarios regarding MDRTB cure rate and HAARTcoverage, that is the HIV/AIDS population covered by HAART. The results over a20-year period indicate that reduction in TB and HIV-associated TB deaths wouldbe negligible for HAART coverage up to 50%. The reduction is onlysignificant for HAART coverage of 70% and above. Similarly, high MDRTBcure rate reduces significantly deaths from TB and MDRTB and this reduction ismore important as the HAART coverage is increased.     

Modeling and dynamics of HIV transmission among high-risk groups in Guangzhou city, China

In this paper, a multicompartmental model is formulated to study how HIV is transmitted among different HIV high-risk groups, including MSM (men who have sex with men), FRs (foreigner residents), FSWs (female sex workers), and IDUs (injection drug users). The explicit expression for the basic reproduction number is obtained via the next generation matrix approach. We show that the disease free equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable (the disease goes to extinction) when the basic reproduction number is less than unity, and the disease is always present when the basic reproduction number is larger than unity. As an illustration of our theoretical results, we conduct numerical simulations. We also conduct a case study where model parameters are estimated from the demographic and epidemiological data from Guangzhou. Using the parameter estimates, we predict the HIV/AIDS trend for each high-risk group. Furthermore, our study suggests that reducing the transmission routes of the disease and increasing condom use will be useful for control of HIV transmission.     

A linked risk group model for investigating the spread of HIV

This paper describes a model that simulates the spread of HIV and progression to AIDS. The model is based on classical models of disease transmission. It consists of six linked risk groups and tracks the numbers of infectives, AIDS cases, AIDS related deaths, and other deaths of infected persons in each risk group. Parametric functions are used to represent risk-group-specific and time-dependent average contact rates. Contacts are needle sharing, sexual contacts, or blood product transfers.

An important feature of the model is that the contact rate parameters are estimated by minimizing differences between AIDS incidence and reported AIDS cases adjusted for undercounting biases. This feature results in an HIV epidemic curve that is analogous to one estimated by backcalculation models but whose dynamics are determined by simulating disease transmission. The model exhibits characteristics of both the disease transmission and the backcalculation approaches, i.e., the model:

• reconstructs the historical behavior patterns of the different risk groups,

• includes separate effects of treatment and changes in average contact rates,

• accounts for other mortality risks for persons infected with HIV,

• calculates short-term projections of AIDS incidence, HIV incidence, and HIV prevalence,

• calculates cumulative HIV infections (the quantity calculated by backcalculation approaches) and HIV prevalence (the quantity measured by seroprevalence and sentinel surveys). This latter feature permits the validation of the estimates generated by two distinct approaches.

We demonstrate the use of the model with an application to U.S. AIDS data through 1991.     

A nonlinear AIDS epidemic model with screening and time delay

A nonlinear mathematical model to study the effect of time delay in the recruitment of infected persons on the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS is proposed and analyzed. In modeling the dynamics, the population is divided into four subclasses: the susceptibles, the HIV positives or infectives that do not know they are infected, the HIV positives that know they are infected and the AIDS patients. Susceptibles are assumed to become infected via sexual contacts with (both types of) infectives. The model is analyzed using stability theory of delay differential equations. Both the disease-free and the endemic equilibria are found and their stability is investigated. It is shown that the introduction of time delay in the model has a destabilizing effect on the system and periodic solutions can arise by Hopf bifurcation. Numerical simulations are also carried out to investigate the influence of key parameters on the spread of the disease, to support the analytical conclusion and to illustrate possible behavioral scenario of the model.     

A nonlinear HIV/AIDS model with contact tracing

A nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the effect of contact tracing on reducing the spread of HIV/AIDS in a homogeneous population with constant immigration of susceptibles. In modeling the dynamics, the population is divided into four subclasses of HIV negatives but susceptibles, HIV positives or infectives that do not know they are infected, HIV positives that know they are infected and that of AIDS patients. Susceptibles are assumed to become infected via sexual contacts with (both types of) infectives and all infectives move with constant rates to develop AIDS. The model is analyzed using the stability theory of differential equations and numerical simulation. The model analysis shows that contact tracing may be of immense help in reducing the spread of AIDS epidemic in a population. It is also found that the endemicity of infection is reduced when infectives after becoming aware of their infection do not take part in sexual interaction.     

Modelling circumcision and condom use as HIV/AIDS preventive control strategies

We present a sex-structured model for heterosexual transmission of HIV/AIDS with explicit incubation period for modelling the effect of male circumcision as a preventive strategy for HIV/AIDS. The model is formulated using integro-differential equations, which are shown to be equivalent to delay differential equations with delay due to incubation period. The threshold and equilibria for the model are determined and stabilities are examined. We extend the model to incorporate the effects of condom use as another preventive strategy for controlling HIV/AIDS. Basic reproductive numbers for these models are computed and compared to assess the effectiveness of male circumcision and condom use in a community. The models are numerically analysed to assess the effects of the two preventive strategies on the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS. We conclude from the study that in the continuing absence of a preventive vaccine or cure for HIV/AIDS, male circumcision is a potential effective preventive strategy of HIV/AIDS to help communities slow the development of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and that it is even more effective if implemented jointly with condom use. The study provides insights into the possible community benefits that male circumcision and condom use as preventive strategies provide in slowing or curtailing the HIV/AIDS epidemic.     

A CA-based epidemic model for HIV/AIDS transmission with heterogeneity

The complex dynamics of HIV transmission and subsequent progression to AIDS make the mathematical analysis untraceable and problematic. In this paper, we develop an extended CA simulation model to study the dynamical behaviors of HIV/AIDS transmission. The model incorporates heterogeneity into agents’ behaviors. Agents have various attributes such as infectivity and susceptibility, varying degrees of influence on their neighbors and different mobilities. Additional, we divide the post-infection process of AIDS disease into several sub-stages in order to facilitate the study of the dynamics in different development stages of epidemics. These features make the dynamics more complicated. We find that the epidemic in our model can generally end up in one of the two states: extinction and persistence, which is consistent with other researchers’ work. Higher population density, higher mobility, higher number of infection source, and greater neighborhood are more likely to result in high levels of infections and in persistence. Finally, we show in four-class agent scenario, variation in susceptibility (or infectivity) and various fractions of four classes also complicates the dynamics, and some of the results are contradictory and needed for further research.     

Mathematical Analysis of an HIV/AIDS Model: Impact of Educational Programs and Abstinence in Sub-Saharan Africa

We formulate a deterministic HIV/AIDS model to theoretically investigate how counselling and testing coupled with the resulting decrease in sexual activity could affect the HIV epidemic in resource-limited communities. The threshold quantities are determined and stabilities analyzed. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations support the idea that increase in the number of sexually inactive HIV positive individuals who voluntarily abstain from sex has a positive impact on HIV/AIDS control. Results from this theoretical study suggest that effective counselling and testing have a great potential to partially control the epidemic (especially when HIV positive individuals either willingly withdraw from risky sexual activities or disclose their status beforehand) even in the absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Therefore, more needs to be done in resource-limited settings, such as sub-Saharan Africa, as far as the HIV/AIDS epidemic is concerned and a formalized information, education, and communication strategy should be given prominence in educational campaigns.