基于ARIMA和LSSVM的非线性集成预测模型

针对复杂时间序列预测困难的问题,在综合考虑线性与非线性复合特征的基础上,提出一种基于ARIMA和最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)的非线性集成预测方法.首先采用ARIMA模型进行时间序列线性趋势建模,并为LSSVM建模确定输入阶数;接着根据确定的输入阶数进行时间序列样本重构,采用LSSVM模型进行时间序列非线性特征建模;最后采用基于LSSVM的非线性集成技术形成一个综合的预测结果.将该方法用于中国GDP预测取得的结果,与单独预测方法及流行的其他集成预测方法相比,预测精度有了较大的提高,从而验证了方法的有效性和可行性.     

基于异常值检测的港口集装箱吞吐量预测模型

考虑到诸如金融危机等重大事件的影响,时间序列可能存在异常值,提出了一个基于局部异常因子(LOF)的LOF-SSA-LSSVM预测模型,并将其应用于广州港集装箱吞吐量预测.首先,对原始时间序列进行X12加法季节分解,对于分解得到的不规则序列,采用LOF算法进行异常值检测,确定异常数据的位置,之后通过插值或最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)的预测值来修正原始季节调整序列中的异常值,将修正后的季节调整序列与季节因子序列加和,即得到新的待预测序列.预测阶段,先采用奇异谱分析(SSA)将新的待预测序列进行分解重构,剔除序列中的噪声,然后再采用LSSVM对其进行预测.实证结果表明,建立的LOF-SSA-LSSVM模型相比BP、ARIMA等模型有着更好的预测精度.     

正权重组合预测模型及其在经济中的应用

介绍了组合预测的方法,并利用最优组合和递归方差倒数方法对组合预测方法进行改进;提出通过GMDH方法首先对影响经济预测模型的各变量进行筛选然后再建立回归模型、神经网络模型等单项预测模型的思想;最后结合GMDH方法建立的时间序列模型,建立正权重组合预测模型．     

土体残余强度的PSO-LSSVM模型

利用最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)建立土体残余强度模型,以液限、塑性指数、粘粒含量和偏差等为输入变量,通过改变输入变量的结构建立2个LSSVM模型,并采用粒子群优化(PSO)算法设定模型参数,分别预测残余摩擦角值,并与实验值、人工神经网络(ANN)模型作比较,得出LSSVM模型具有较好的效果,另外对LSSVM的输入变量进行敏感性分析,得出偏差对模型的影响最大,印证文献中结论并说明模型的合理性。     

基于Adaboost和正则化ELM的混合金融时间序列预测模型及其应用

为提高金融时间序列的预测精度,本文提出了基于MODWT、MCP变量选择方法和RELM_Adaboost的混合预测模型。该模型由三步构成:第一步,收集特征变量,包括MODWT分解得到的特征变量以及常用的技术指标;第二步,利用MCP惩罚方法从上述特征变量中选取重要的作为输入变量;第三步,利用Mnet惩罚正则化ELM,将RELM视作弱预测器,然后用Adaboost算法生成强预测器进行预测。实证结果显示:第一,经过MCP方法的筛选,最终的输入变量中不仅包含常用技术指标,还有小波分解所得的变量。第二,混合预测模型RELM_Adaboost有良好的泛化误差表现。本文提出的模型在量化交易时代具有良好的应用前景。     

基于EMD-GA-BP与EMD-PSO-LSSVM的中国碳市场价格预测

由于碳交易市场价格的波动性大及相互影响关系的复杂性,本文试图构建碳价格长期和短期的最优预测模型。考虑到碳交易价格波动的趋势性和周期性特点,基于经验模态分解算法(EMD)、遗传算法(GA)—神经网络(BP)模型、粒子群算法(PSO)—最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型及由它们构建的组合预测模型,对中国碳市场交易价格进行短期预测和长期预测。实证分析中将影响碳交易价格的不同宏观经济因素和碳价格时间序列因素做为输入变量,分别代入组合模型进行预测。研究结果表明,在短期预测中,EMD-GA-BP模型预测效果优于GA-BP模型和PSO-LSSVM模型;而在长期预测中,组合模型EMD-PSO-LSSVM模型预测效果优于只考虑碳价格波动趋势性或周期性预测效果。     

基于趋势修正的灰预测模型优化研究

针对序列增长趋势不完全满足准指数规律时的灰色预测建模问题,提出基于GM(1,1)模型与序列增长趋势之间偏差修正的建模方法,将GM(1,1)模型还原式中的常数项作为灰变量处理,加入调整系数以缩小拟合值与实际值之间的增长趋势差异,利用灰色离散模型拟合调整系数的变化过程,将得到的调整系数拟合值带入原时间响应函数,进而得到趋势修正的原始序列拟合值;运用新的建模方法对南京市第三产业用电量进行拟合和预测,证明了方法有效提升了GM(1,1)建模精度,并且拟合序列和实际序列的灰色绝对关联度得到提高.     

具有时滞和周期特征的短时交通流灰建模及其应用

针对短时交通流的延迟性、随机性和周期性特征,采用灰关联分析和分数阶累加生成方法建立了带时滞和周期特征的分数阶累加灰色新模型.针对短时交通流的延迟性,将短时交通流数据拆分成参考时间序列和对应的比较时间序列,进行关联度分析,得到计算时滞值的方法.针对短时交通流的随机性和周期性,利用分数阶累加生成方法,并引入tan(kp)为发展系数,sin(kp)为输入变量,建立了短时交通流的分数阶GM(1,1|tan(kp),sin(kp))模型,给出了模型参数的最小二乘估计和周期性参数与分数阶阶数的优化求解算法.最后将模型应用于长沙市芙蓉区某交叉路口的交通流建模及预测中,并与常规的五种模型进行了对比分析,结果表明,模型能较为准确地反映交通流的实际情况,且有较高的预测精度和较为稳定的结果.     

基于MGM(1,n)模型的多元核支持向量回归预测

根据灰色系统和支持向量机相结合的方法,采用多变量灰色模型MGM(1,n)对相互影响、相互制约的多变量时间序列进行模拟,获取残差序列后运用多元核支持向量回归机(MSVR)对残差进行回归以修正原模型,得到多变量灰色支持向量回归复合模型(MGM-MSVR).实证结论表明:复合模型具有比原模型更高的精度.     

混沌时间序列的2阶预测模型

为了克服传统预测方法对混沌时间序列预测精度不高的缺点,提出一种新的基于1阶预测模型(1-OP)和信息融合理论的混沌时间序列2阶预测模型(2-OP).首先根据相空间重构理论建立2个1阶预测模型,然后根据融合估计原理建立2阶预测模型.最后利用Lorenz和Mackey-Glass时间序列对该模型进行验证,结果表明,2阶预测模型对多变量和单变量混沌系统都是有效的.     

果蝇优化最小二乘支持向量机混合预测模型—以我国物流需求量预测为例

为解决最小二乘支持向量机参数设置的盲目性,利用果蝇优化算法对其参数进行优化选择,进而构建了果蝇优化最小二乘支持向量机混合预测模型.以我国物流需求量预测为例,验证了该模型的可行性和有效性.实例验证结果表明:与单一最小二乘支持向量机和模拟退火算法优化最小二乘支持向量机预测模型相比,该模型不仅能够有效选择参数值,而且预测精度更高.     

A robust regression based on weighted LSSVM and penalized trimmed squares

Least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) for nonlinear regression is sensitive to outliers in the field of machine learning. Weighted LS-SVM (WLS-SVM) overcomes this drawback by adding weight to each training sample. However, as the number of outliers increases, the accuracy of WLS-SVM may decrease. In order to improve the robustness of WLS-SVM, a new robust regression method based on WLS-SVM and penalized trimmed squares (WLSSVM–PTS) has been proposed. The algorithm comprises three main stages. The initial parameters are obtained by least trimmed squares at first. Then, the significant outliers are identified and eliminated by the Fast-PTS algorithm. The remaining samples with little outliers are estimated by WLS-SVM at last. The statistical tests of experimental results carried out on numerical datasets and real-world datasets show that the proposed WLSSVM–PTS is significantly robust than LS-SVM, WLS-SVM and LSSVM–LTS.     

A novel approach to estimation of E. coli promoter gene sequences: Combining feature selection and least square support vector machine (FS_LSSVM)

In this paper, we have investigated the real-world task of recognizing biological concepts in DNA sequences. Recognizing promoters in strings that represent nucleotides (one of A, G, T, or C) has been performed using a novel approach based on combining feature selection (FS) and least square support vector machine (LSSVM). Dimensionality of Escherichia coli promoter gene sequences dataset has 57 attributes and 106 samples including 53 promoters and 53 non-promoters. The proposed system consists of two parts. Firstly, we have used the FS process to reduce the dimensionality of E. coli promoter gene sequences dataset that has 57 attributes. So the dimensionality of this dataset has been reduced to 4 attributes by means of FS process.Secondly, LSSVM classifier algorithm has been run to estimation the E. coli promoter gene sequences. In order to show the performance of the proposed system, we have used the success rate, sensitivity and specificity analysis, 10-fold cross validation, and confusion matrix. Whilst only LSSVM classifier has been obtained 80% success rate using 10-fold cross validation, the proposed system has been obtained 100% success rate for same condition. These obtained results indicate that the proposed approach improve the success rate in recognizing promoters in strings that represent nucleotides.     

A new nonlinear blind source separation method with chaos indicators for decoupling diagnosis of hybrid failures: A marine propulsion gearbox case with a large speed variation

The normal operation of propulsion gearboxes ensures the ship safety. Chaos indicators could efficiently indicate the state change of the gearboxes. However, accurate detection of gearbox hybrid faults using Chaos indicators is a challenging task and the detection under speed variation conditions is attracting considerable attentions. Literature review suggests that the gearbox vibration is a kind of nonlinear mixture of variant vibration sources and the blind source separation (BSS) is reported to be a promising technique for fault vibration analysis, but very limited work has addressed the nonlinear BSS approach for hybrid faults decoupling diagnosis. Aiming to enhance the fault detection performance of Chaos indicators, this work presents a new nonlinear BSS algorithm for gearbox hybrid faults detection under a speed variation condition. This new method appropriately introduces the kernel spectral regression (KSR) framework into the morphological component analysis (MCA). The original vibration data are projected into the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the instinct nonlinear structure in the original data can be linearized by KSR. Thus the MCA is able to deal with nonlinear BSS in the KSR space. Reliable hybrid faults decoupling is then achieved by this new nonlinear MCA (NMCA). Subsequently, by calculating the Chaos indicators of the decoupled fault components and comparing them with benchmarks, the hybrid faults can be precisely identified. Two specially designed case studies were implemented to evaluate the proposed NMCA-Chaos method on hybrid gear faults decoupling diagnosis. The performance of the NMCA-Chaos was compared with state of art techniques. The analysis results show high performance of the proposed method on hybrid faults detection in a marine propulsion gearbox with large speed variations.     

A memetic algorithm for the team orienteering problem

The team orienteering problem (TOP) is a generalization of the orienteering problem. A limited number of vehicles is available to visit customers from a potential set. Each vehicle has a predefined running-time limit, and each customer has a fixed associated profit. The aim of the TOP is to maximize the total collected profit. In this paper we propose a simple hybrid genetic algorithm using new algorithms dedicated to the specific scope of the TOP: an Optimal Split procedure for chromosome evaluation and local search techniques for mutation. We have called this hybrid method a memetic algorithm for the TOP. Computational experiments conducted on standard benchmark instances clearly show our method to be highly competitive with existing ones, yielding new improved solutions in at least 5 instances.     

A new hybrid method for solving global optimization problem

In this paper we present a new hybrid method, called the SASP method. The purpose of this method is the hybridization of the simulated annealing (SA) with the descent method, where we estimate the gradient using simultaneous perturbation. Firstly, the new hybrid method finds a local minimum using the descent method, then SA is executed in order to escape from the currently discovered local minimum to a better one, from which the descent method restarts a new local search, and so on until convergence.The new hybrid method can be widely applied to a class of global optimization problems for continuous functions with constraints. Experiments on 30 benchmark functions, including high dimensional functions, show that the new method is able to find near optimal solutions efficiently. In addition, its performance as a viable optimization method is demonstrated by comparing it with other existing algorithms. Numerical results improve the robustness and efficiency of the method presented.     

A priori error analysis of two force-based atomistic/continuum models of a periodic chain

The force-based quasicontinuum (QCF) approximation is a non-conservative atomistic/continuum hybrid model for the simulation of defects in crystals. We present an a priori error analysis of the QCF method, applied to a one-dimensional periodic chain, that is valid for an arbitrary interaction range, large deformations, and takes coarse-graining into account. Our main tool in this analysis is a new concept of atomistic stress. Moreover, we formulate a new atomistic/continuum coupling mechanism based on coupling stresses instead of forces and extend the a priori analysis to this new method. We show that the new method has several theoretical advantages over the original QCF method.     

A fully adaptive hybrid optimization of aircraft engine blades

A new fully adaptive hybrid optimization method (AHM) has been developed and applied to an industrial problem in the field of the aircraft engine industry. The adaptivity of the coupling between a global search by a population-based method (Genetic Algorithms or Evolution Strategies) and the local search by a descent method has been particularly emphasized. On various analytical test cases, the AHM method overperforms the original global search method in terms of computational time and accuracy. The results obtained on the industrial case have also confirmed the interest of AHM for the design of new and original solutions in an affordable time.