HRSOS: a decision support system to facilitate the privatization of military housing

The armed services must provide their personnel with acceptable housing at minimum cost within the vicinity of military installations. To achieve these housing objectives, the Department of Defense (DoD) has entered into experimental joint ventures with private developers to construct attractive housing projects on military installation property, with some of the projects reserved for military personnel. To support the analysis of the joint ventures, DoD needed a methodology that would help officials evaluate the financial feasibility and cost implications of the housing projects. A decision support system, called the Housing Revitalization Support Office System (HRSOS), was developed to provide the necessary support. This paper describes the decision support system and its underlying methodology. It outlines the process used to determine financially feasible privatized military housing initiatives, reviews the decision support system created to support the process, and describes its application at the US Department of Defense. The paper also discusses the implications for military housing management, public finance, and operations research.     

Asymptotic behavior of Mean-CVaR portfolio selection model under nonparametric framework

Portfolio selection is an important issue in finance and it involves the balance between risk and return. This paper investigates portfolio selection under Mean-CVa R model in a nonparametric framework with α-mixing data as financial data tends to be dependent. Many works have provided some insight into the performance of portfolio selection from the aspects of data and simulation while in this paper we concentrate on the asymptotic behaviors of the optimal solutions and risk estimation in theory.     

互联网金融与传统金融业双向风险溢出效应研究

基于2013-2019年互联网金融指数和申万行业指数的日收盘价数据，采用GARCH族模型结合CoVaR方法，从定量计量和动态特征分析两方面入手，考察了互联网金融行业与传统金融业之间的双向风险溢出效应.结果表明，互联网金融与各传统金融业之间均存在双向不对称的正向风险溢出且传统金融业对互联网金融的风险溢出强度显著高于互联网金融对传统金融业的风险溢出强度；从整体来看，互联网金融与银行业之间双向风险溢出效应最强，但从局部分析，互联网金融可能会对证券业造成“激增式”风险溢出，不可掉以轻心；此外，互联网金融与各传统金融业之间的风险溢出还具有周期性特征.     

模糊影响图评价算法在供应链金融信用风险评估中的应用

传统的银行信贷模式风险评价专注于个体企业的财务数据.供应链金融新融资模式下的信用风险评价不同于传统的融资模式风险评价,它的评价范围更宽,不确定性因素更加复杂.在分析供应链金融模式的信用风险评价体系的基础上,结合模糊集和影响图理论建立了模糊影响图评价模型,对评估中难以量化的问题进行模糊处理,对变量之间的模糊影响关系进行分析,最后计算出信用风险概率分布.方法定性与定量相结合,为供应链金融新模式下的风险评估提供了一种新思路.     

Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: The Turkish case

The objective of this paper is to propose a methodological framework for constructing the integrated early warning system (IEWS) that can be used as a decision support tool in bank examination and supervision process for detection of banks, which are experiencing serious problems. Sample and variable set of the study contains 40 privately owned Turkish commercial banks (21 banks failed during the period 1997–2003) and their financial ratios. Well known multivariate statistical technique (principal component analysis), was used to explore the basic financial characteristics of the banks, and discriminant, logit and probit models were estimated based on these characteristics to construct IEWS. Also, importance of early warning systems in bank examination was evaluated with respect to cost of failure. Results of the study show that, if IEWS was effectively employed in bank supervision, it can be possible to avoid from the bank restructuring costs at a significant amount of rate in the long run.     

中国股市收益率分布特征的实证研究

金融数据除了具有尖峰厚尾特性以外,也表现出了尾部概率的非对称性,即偏尾特征。本文采用非对称Lap lace分布对我国沪深股市的样本收益率数据进行了实证分析,研究表明,我国股市的中长期收益率数据存在明显偏尾特征,与Compell的行为金融学解释恰恰相反,这种偏尾特征的具体表现不是左尾比右尾厚,而是右尾比左尾厚,研究还表明深市收益率偏尾特征对时间水平的灵敏度比沪市要高。     

广义双曲线分布模型在我国证券市场风险度量中的应用研究

经济的全球化、衍生产品的大量出现以及因此导致的金融市场的动荡使得金融机构越来越需要更有效的风险管理方法。而如何精确度量风险是风险管理的关键问题。本文试图从金融收益分布假设着手改善风险度量的精度。国外学者研究发现广义双曲线分布比其它分布形式可以更好地拟合实际收益分布特征。本文首次把广义双曲线分布应用到VaR的分析方法中计算我国股票指数的VaR。实证结果表明，基于广义双曲线分布的方法得到了较好的预测结果。     

Skandia导航器—工业经济转向知识经济的财务里程碑

知识经济时代的临近,传统财务会计系统已不能正确反映企业的真实价值,因而诞生了一种反映公司智力资本（即企业的市场价值和帐面价值的差值）的新型财务模型——Ｓｋａｎｄｉａ导航器,用以帮助股东精确评价企业的未来竞争力和发展潜力。文章分析了这一模型的五个组成部分：财务、顾客、运作过程、更新和发展、人力资源,并且介绍了精确评价智力资本的大体计算框架。     

财务供应链管理提高企业短期财务绩效的实证研究

近几年来,无论是理论界还是实务界,对供应链管理理念在企业短期财务管理中的应用日益关注.负营运资本管理和类金融模式即是两种典型的形式.对2001-2006年间实施后一年较前一年的79个供应链管理样本进行细分,分为物理供应链样本25个,财务供应链样本54个,运用单样本t检验、单样本位置参数的Wilcoxon符号秩检验和一般线性回归法来深入探究两类供应链管理之间的关系以及二者对企业财务绩效的影响有何差异.实证结果显示:在物理供应链样本中,产成品周转率和存货周转率在10%的水平上有了显著的提高,但并未转化为盈利指标的改善.在财务供应链样本中,营业利润率和净资产收益率在5%的水平上有了显著的提高,即看到了盈利指标的改善.财务供应链管理对业绩的影响更为直接.但回归分析的结果显示:实施类金融模式会阻碍营业利润率的提高.该文的研究结论在更深入的层面上揭示了两类供应链管理之间的关系,有利于提高对供应链管理对企业财务绩效影响机制的认识.     

委托-代理关系下的企业筹资决策模型

本文建立了在委托代理关系下的企业筹资决策的数学模型 .模型分析表明 ,股东在设立经理激励合同时 ,将经理报酬与权益资本利润率联系起来 ,能够激励经理选择负债经营 ,但经理选择的最优资本结构可能会偏离股东效用最大化的资本结构 .     

Game theoretic analysis of negotiations under bankruptcy

We extend the contingent claims framework for the levered firm in explicitly modelling the resolution of financial distress under formal bankruptcy as a non-cooperative game between claimants under the supervision of the bankruptcy judge. The identity of the class of claimants proposing the first reorganization plan is found to be a key determinant of the time spent under bankruptcy, the likelihood of liquidation and the renegotiated value of claims. Our quantitative results confirm the economic intuition that a bankruptcy design must trade-off the initial priority of claims with the viability of reorganized firms.     

Mean-reverting stock model with floating interest rate in uncertain environment

As an application of uncertainty theory in the field of finance, uncertain finance is playing a more and more important role in solving the financial problems. This paper proposes a mean-reverting stock model with floating interest rate to investigate the uncertain financial market. The European option and American option pricing formulas of the stock model are derived by using the Yao–Chen formula. Besides, some numerical algorithms are designed to compute the prices of these options based on the pricing formulas.     

基于贝叶斯学习的最优互联网化房地产金融合约

房地产金融的互联网化是当前金融市场创新的重要方向。本文采用动态道德风险理论研究了互联网化房地产金融合约的最优性及其经济特征,并以动态合约的视角考虑了参与方的贝叶斯学习对互联网化房地产金融最优性的影响。研究发现,为了激励资信良好的融资方努力工作且排除资信欠佳的融资方,互联网化房地产金融合约不仅需权衡激励成本和收益以确定适当的努力激励强度,而且还需考虑因融资方的信息优势带来的信息租金。     

低碳环境友好技术政产学研金协同创新演化博弈研究

在气候变化应对日益紧迫的背景下,研究了政府、企业、研发机构和金融机构(政产学研金)参与低碳环境友好技术(LCEFT)创新的条件和策略。以企业合作关系为假设条件,引入金融主体和科研机构,构建了LCEFT的政产学研金协调创新博弈模型,深入分析了碳权质押、信用等级、投资回报等因素对博弈系统群体协调创新策略的影响。研究表明,金融机构参与协同创新的决策受到政府奖惩机制、绿色信贷项目盈利和风险等因素的影响;多主体在资源和能力上的互补性正是LCEFT协同创新联盟形成的关键;政府部门的奖惩机制能够促进多主体合作,但难以使得整体获得最优,达到整体最优的关键是有效地发挥政府部门的引导作用和金融机构的杠杆作用。本文为政府部门制定绿色金融、产学研协同创新及产业化管理机制提供了新思路和一定的决策参考。     

Generating interest rate scenarios for bank asset liability management

Over the last years the Second European Directive on Banking and Financial services demand that financial institutions develop asset liability management tools to identify and measure the various financial risks they encounter. The present paper develops a goal programming ALM model with a simulation analysis, to assist a commercial bank in managing its exposure to interest rate risk taking into account a duration gap framework. An application of the ALM model takes place on a large commercial bank of Greece.     

中小企业融资中的逆向选择和道德风险

针对我国中小企业融资难的难题,利用博弈论和信息经济学的有关理论知识,从定量的角度深入分析了中小企业融资中逆向选择和道德风险的形成过程和机理,从理论上论证了中小企业融资难的重要原因在于中小企业与金融机构之间信息分布的非对称,在此基础上并给出了降低或规避逆向选择和道德风险的途径.     

Trade credit for supply chain coordination

Trade-credit is a seller’s short-term loan to the buyer, allowing the buyer to delay payment of an invoice. It has been the largest source of working capital for a majority of business-to-business firms in the United States. Numerous theories have been proposed to explain trade-credit, mainly from finance perspectives. It has also been an important issue in supply chain management. Surprisingly, most literature in supply chain management has examined the retailer’s stocking policies given a supplier’s trade-credit. This paper attempts to shed light on trade-credit from a supplier’s perspective, and presents it as a tool for supply chain coordination. Specifically, we explicitly assume firms’ financial needs for inventory. Following a Newsvendor framework, we assume that the supplier grants trade-credit and markdown allowance. Given the supplier’s offer, the retailer determines order quantity and the financing option for the inventory, either trade-credit or direct financing from a financial institution. Our result shows that the supplier’s markdown allowance alone cannot fully coordinate the supply chain if the retailer employs direct financing. Positive financing costs call for trade-credit in order to subsidize the retailer’s costs of inventory financing. Using trade-credit in addition to markdown allowance, the supplier fully coordinates the retailer’s decisions for the largest joint profit, and extracts a greater portion of the maximized joint profit.     

Explanation of exceptional values in multi-dimensional business databases

In this paper, we describe an extension of the OnLine Analytical Processing (OLAP) framework with causal explanation, offering the possibility to automatically generate explanations for exceptional cell values. This functionality can be built into conventional OLAP databases using a generic explanation formalism, which supports the work of managers in diagnostic processes. The central goal is the identification of specific knowledge structures and reasoning methods required to construct computerized explanations from multi-dimensional data and business models. The methodology was tested on a case study involving the comparison of financial figures of a firm’s business units. The findings suggest improved decision-making by managers because the current tedious and error-prone manual analysis process is enhanced by automated problem identification and explanation generation. It is also noted that this novel methodology has general utility for decision-support systems, for example, for automated diagnosis in the financial and accountancy domain.     

求积元法在金融工程计算领域应用初探

金融工程领域的大量实际问题最终都可归结为对随机微分方程(组)的求解.针对金融工程计算领域涉及到的静态一维问题,首次将求积元方法应用于非自伴随微分方程的求解.建立了相应的求积元方法计算单元.对典型问题进行计算,并与解析解、有限差分解、有限元解分别进行对比.结果表明,求积元法是一种简单准确高效的数值方法,可进一步用于金融工程计算领域动态问题、二维问题的计算分析.