差分—等级依赖效用模型研究

等级依赖效用模型在决策权重设置上存在理论缺陷;差分-等级依赖效用模型在有限理性假设下,考虑结果差分变化对决策权重的影响,提出基于差分的决策权重与概率权重的组合权重控制机制,可克服等级依赖效用模型的缺陷;针对差分-等级依赖效用模型的检验表明模型可很好解释拆分效应;差分-等级依赖效用模型保持了等级依赖效用模型的理论框架,可对人们的风险决策行为做出更好的解释和预测.     

不确定需求量与回收量条件下无价格差异的闭环供应链模型

研究随机需求量与回收量条件下无价格差异的闭环供应链集中决策和分散决策问题.假设新产品与再造品价格相同,在不确定性需求量与回收量的前提下,建立了集中决策与分散决策的Stackelberg模型,探讨了闭环供应链成员如何确定最优产品价格,订货量,回收努力等问题.通过数值仿真,比较分析了集中决策与分散式Stackelberg决策模型的最优解,通过相关参数的变动,分析了对闭环供应链系统以及各成员的决策变量与期望利润的影响.最后,总结仿真得出的相关结论.     

分享经济环境下制造业产能分享的三群体演化博弈分析

制造业产能分享的兴起,改变了传统的制造模式,打破了原有制造业系统的平衡。为研究制造业产能分享参与群体的决策行为,在产能分享平台具有网络外部性、制造企业具有接入成本且博弈群体均具有有限理性的假设条件下,构建了“产能分享平台-制造业产能所有企业-制造业产能需求企业”三个博弈群体的演化博弈模型。运用演化博弈理论分析了模型的演化稳定策略,探讨了制造企业接入成本、产能分享平台的网络外部性系数等对此动态系统稳定性的影响,给出了演化稳定策略的经济和管理意义。最后,用数值仿真对比分析不同参数变化对演化结果的影响,为产能分享平台和制造企业的行为决策提供理论参考依据。     

矩形巷道围岩应力分布特征

为得出矩形巷道围岩应力分布特征,根据复变函数理论推导得出了矩形巷道围岩应力解析式并采用巷道围岩沿线分布和matlab软件对巷道围岩应力进行仿真分析两种方法对巷道围岩应力分布特征进行分析.以沿水平线φ=0的围岩应力分布规律为例进行巷道围岩沿线应力分布分析,得出了侧压系数对巷道径向应力和环向应力大小影响规律;侧压系数对径向应力和环向应力峰值出现位置影响规律;围岩至巷道右帮距离与径向应力和环向应力变化规律.以侧压系数对围岩应力空间分布影响为例采用matlab软件对巷道围岩应力仿真分析,得得到了巷道围岩应力空间分布图,可比较方便直观的得到巷道围岩任意位置应力分布情况,还得出了不同巷道尺寸及不同侧压下应力集中系数峰值位置均出现在矩形巷道的四角上.研究结果为巷道支护设计提供了理论依据.     

微曲输流管道振动固有频率分析与仿真北大核心CSCD

首次建立了基于Timoshenko梁理论的微曲输流管道横向振动的动力学模型,并分析了流体流动影响下微曲管道横向自由振动的固有特征.采用广义Hamilton原理,导出了考虑流体影响的微曲管道横向振动的控制方程,通过Galerkin截断对控制方程离散化,再由广义本征值问题得到管道横向振动的固有频率,并研究了液体流速和弯曲幅度对管道横向固有振动特征的影响.发展了基于等效刚度和等效阻尼方法的考虑流体影响的微曲管道振动分析的有限元仿真计算方法,并通过有限元软件实现数值仿真,验证了Galerkin截断的分析结果以及所建立的Timoshenko微曲管道动力学模型的有效性.研究表明,流体的流速以及管道的弯曲幅度对管道横向振动固有频率均有显著影响.     

基于遗传算法的车间作业计划仿真研究

将仿真技术和遗传算法相结合,根据生产车间的资源情况、优化目标等建立了生产调度仿真模型,然后对仿真输出结果进行统计,针对统计结果应用遗传算法对调度决策进行优化.仿真优化结果说明了该集成优化方法是有效性的.     

在风险规避下考虑质量因素的竞争供应链的均衡策略研究

在供应链竞争环境下,针对具有风险规避特征的供应商和零售商组成的供应链,采用博弈及优化理论探讨竞争环境下风险规避参与者的均衡定价及质量水平,并分析风险规避度对参与者均衡定价和质量水平的影响.借助数值分析,研究了系统中各参数对决策的影响.数值仿真结果表明,各风险规避参与者的定价随着自身风险规避度的增大而减小,即参与者越害怕风险其所制定的价格越低.另外,市场竞争的存在在某种程度上会削弱风险规避特征对参与者决策的影响,使参与者的定价提高,增加参与者的收益.     

仿真决策方案的统计优选

§1.引言随着计算机技术和系统模拟技术的发展,离散系统仿真技术已经渗透到工程技术、企业管理和社会经济等许多领域,并获得了明显的经济效果.在离散系统仿真过程中,尤其是对制造系统进行仿真时一般都不可避免地遇到系统的决策问题。如何选择最佳的系统决策方案呢?通常都采用穷举法对这些决策的各种算法组合——进行试验,最终获得最优解,然而这种方     

寻租行为下的网络餐饮服务食品安全监管主体的决策分析

为了解决网络餐饮服务食品安全监管问题,以监管中的寻租行为为切入点,分析寻租情境下平台与商家的决策顺序和策略集合,并假设相关变量及参数,进而建立双方的决策收益模型.采用数值仿真方法对影响双方决策的因素进行剖析,通过调整影响商家和平台决策参数的取值,总结降低商家与平台消极决策及收受贿赂行为的激励措施,以期为网络餐饮服务食品安全趋于有效监管提供参考.     

考虑媒体报道效应的谣言传播模型研究

结合媒体正面宣传报道和负面报道对信息传播的影响,建立了一类新的社交网络谣言传播模型.利用常微分方程稳定性理论,分别讨论了无谣言传播和有谣言传播平衡点的存在性以及全局稳定性.数值仿真验证了理论分析的正确性.研究结果为政府管理部门在舆情监控和危机决策方面提供相应的对策建议.     

基于次大值标杆的秘书问题研究

秘书问题的实质是决定何时停止观察选项、而不是哪一个选项被选择,已有解决秘书问题的策略,其主要特征是以取样选项中的一个最大值作为标杆。该策略的优点是能保证命中概率最大,然而其不足是很少考虑决策者的有限理性与启发式偏见,因此本文提出了次大值标杆的设想,然后从理论上计算出该策略的最优截止阀值与命中概率,并通过计算机仿真实验验证与比较了该策略的特征与规律。研究结果发现在最大化命中概率的条件下,标杆降低导致取样观察选项的数量不断增加,但命中概率却逐渐降低。     

Fuzzy-theoretic and concept-formational approaches to hint-effect experiments in human decision processes

This paper describes the results of hint-effect experiments, and analyses the human decision-making process from fuzzy-theoretic and concept-formational viewpoints. To begin with, we discuss the problem of the decision-making process subject to a specific and newly given information. In other words, the fuzzy-theoretic experiment concerning with some hints in the estimation and decision processes of the card arrangement is conducted. Next, the concept-formational process is analysed clearly by means of the introduction of both the cusp-curved surface in catastrophe theory and fuzziness concept in fuzzy set theory. Finally, we show the hint effect in the estimation and decision processes.     

No-information secretary problems with cardinal payoffs and Poisson arrivals

No-information secretary problem with Poisson stream of applicants is considered. The values of the applicants are random variables drawn from uniform distribution. The goal is to maximize the expectation of the value of the applicant under the condition that the decision maker can only stop on a candidate best so far. We also consider two modifications of this problem.     

SIMULEX — a multiattribute DSS to solve rescheduling problems

Knowledge-based systems (KBS) can help to make simulation available to a large group of users. We want to exemplify this by describing a decision support system (DSS) for short term rescheduling in manufacturing called SIMULEX. It couples expert systems, simulation, and a multiattribute decision making (MADM) procedure to assist the production manager. After an introduction to simulation as a problem solving tool, the current problems in production control and the goals of the project are described. Then, the various components of SIMULEX are explained in some detail. Some results and a short outlook conclude the article.     

Optimization via simulation for logistic systems planning and control

This text summarizes the author’s PhD thesis, presented in February 2007 at the University of Calabria and supervised by Roberto Musmanno and Pasquale Legato. The work deals with the field of optimization via simulation. A special emphasis is put on problems with discrete decision variables because they are especially relevant in engineering applications (e.g., in the design of logistic systems). In particular, the thesis focuses on a critical decision problem at marine container terminals. For tackling the problem, an optimization via simulation procedure is presented. Computational results are obtained by using high performance computing systems. The thesis is written in Italian and is available from the author upon request.      

Information theory and alternate-hypothesis tests

Lindley's concept of the information in an experiment is used to study alternate-hypothesis statistical tests. A test is considered to be a combination of a sampling rule and a decision rule which is based on the samples taken. Two information functions are formed: the information about the unknown parameter contained in the samples taken and the information contained in the decision to which these samples lead. The former quantity is at least as great as the latter, with equality if, and only if, the test is an SPRT (sequential probability ratio test) neglecting the excess over the boundary.If the average information contained in the samples taken in one alternate-hypothesis test is greater than the average information contained in the samples taken in another, then the first test has greater expected length. It is also shown that an SPRT neglecting excess is the unique alternate-hypothesis test that utilizes all the information contained in the samples taken. These results provide a proof of the standard result concerning the optimal character of the SPRT neglecting excess.The major purpose of this paper is to develop an information-theoretic analysis of alternate-hypothesis tests. By means of this approach, new results on the SPRT and alternate-hypothesis tests in general are obtained.     

A generalized choice problem

This paper deals with a generalization of a class of optimal stopping problems often referred to as the secretary problem. In the secretary problem, a decision maker views a group ofN candidates sequentially, each of which can be ranked according to some quality, although he does not know any distribution for the quality being measured. Generalizations pursued in this paper include randomN and a more elaborate payoff structure. Conditions on the payoff structure are given which result in a special subclass of stopping rules.     

Integrated production scheduling in large-scale flexible electronic parts manufacturing

This study reports the development of a production scheduling system for the integrated management of production in large-scale, high-volume electronic assembly lines. The development of the system incorporates control and planning considerations by addressing the interaction of various subsystems. Stochastic and deterministic aspects of the problem environment are appropriately handled via relevant simulation and analytic models. By effecting a hierarchical breakdown of the problem environment, the system produces information used in practical decision making for production planning and scheduling. Procedures used encompass and address considerations for management of work-in-process, optimization of the various subsystems' performance, minimization of setup time effect, and inventory carrying costs.     

A SECRETARY PROBLEM ON FUZZY SETS

This paper deals with a secretary problem on fuzzy sets, which allows both the recall of applicants and the uncertainty of a current applicant receiving an offer of employment. A new decision criterion is given to select a satisfactory applicant. This result extends the works of M.C.K. Yang and M.H. Smith.     

Discrete optimization algorithms and problems of decision making in a fuzzy environment

An approach to solving optimization problems with fuzzy coefficients is described. It consists in formulating and analyzing one and the same problem within the framework of mutually related models by constructing equivalent analogs with fuzzy coefficients in objective functions alone. Since the approach is applied within the context of fuzzy discrete optimization problems, modified algorithms of discrete optimization are discussed. These algorithms are based on a combination of formal and heuristic procedures and allow one to obtain quasi-optimal solutions after a small number of steps, thus overcoming the computational complexity posed by the NP-completeness of discrete optimization problems. The subsequent contraction of the decision uncertainty regions is associated with reduction of the problem to multiobjective decision making in a fuzzy environment using techniques based on fuzzy preference relations. The results of the paper are of a universal character and are already being used to solve practical problems in several fields.