山体隧道结构安全模糊可拓评估模型

为完善山体隧道结构安全评价方法,提高运营期保障可靠度.首先在分析隧道结构固有属性和动态影响因素的基础上,构建了能够全面反映山体隧道结构安全的评价指标体系,并对不同等级下指标值进行无量纲化处理.其次将区间模糊数与可拓理论相结合提出山体隧道结构安全评价模型,关联度由不确定型可拓初等关联函数确定,指标权重由区间模糊熵权法求解,并采用集结算子进行综合评价.最后,以霞浦洋坪隧道为例,按照模型步骤对其结构安全进行了系统评价,同时与其它已有方法进行了对比分析.研究成果不仅丰富山体隧道安全评价模型,也为交通部门决策提供了参考.     

基于组合赋权云模型的装配式建筑安全风险评价

装配式建筑具有绿色高效、质量高等优点,近年来发展迅速,但因发展不够完善,安全管理存在风险.为此,本文从装配式建筑全过程入手,对其安全风险影响因素进行分析,建立了安全风险评价指标体系.提出了采用DEMATEL法计算指标权重间的相互影响、应用博弈论计算组合权重的方法,利用云模型对装配式建筑安全风险进行了评价.把建立的模型应用到青岛市某装配式建筑安全风险评价中,结果表明,人员的技术水平和安全意识、构件临时支撑、构件连接技术、作业环境存在较高的安全风险,需采取相应的措施以降低安全风险发生的概率,验证了模型的可行性.     

危险化学品车辆路径问题的一个新模型及算法研究

危险化学品因其固有的危险性,容易引发事故,且事故后果往往很严重,对于危险化学品各个管理环节必须考虑其安全性.文章针对危险化学品运输环节的车辆路径选择问题,建立了同时考虑运输费用和运输安全风险的双目标优化模型.不同于该类传统模型,文章新引入了描述需求点访问次序的决策变量,减少了传统模型的决策变量个数和约束条件的数量,对传统模型进行了简化.针对新模型的求解,文章提出了一种改进的粒子群算法,将非支配解方法与种群杂交策略相结合来处理双目标问题,在迭代过程中加入了局部搜索策略以增强算法效率.数值实验说明改进的粒子群算法与传统的粒子群算法相比具有更优的搜索效率,能更有效地求解新模型.     

基于可拓学的城市道路交叉口安全评价模型

城市道路平面交叉口安全水平关乎交通参与者的切身利益,为了更好地定量评价城市道路交叉口安全水平及相关安全因素的影响程度,依据可拓学的理论和方法,选取基础设施、信号灯、冲突率共3个一级指标和9个二级指标,建立了基于可拓学的城市道路交叉口安全评价物元模型,并将多目标的城市道路交叉口安全水平的目标评价归结为单一目标决策,然后通过计算综合关联度函数,分析各指标因子对交叉口安全性的影响程度,以鉴别出影响交叉口安全的危险因子.最后以昆明市某交叉口为例验证,其分析结果表明,可拓安全评价模型能够较好的评价交叉口安全水平并为交叉口的安全改善提供决策依据.     

基于可拓评价的无菌医疗器具生产环境安全评价与预警研究

将可拓评价方法用于无菌医疗器具生产环境安全评价与预测研究,建立了无菌医疗器具生产环境安全可拓物元评价模型.利用关联函数动态赋权法,改进了待评物元所属安全等级特征值的计算方法,使得判别更加准确.同时也对各单项指标进行了评价与预测,可为企业决策者提供更加有效的科学依据.     

基于改进风险矩阵法的医院建筑火灾风险评价

在对国内外广泛采用的风险矩阵法进行全面系统的分析和总结的基础上,针对风险矩阵方法的不足,结合医院建筑火灾风险评价的的客观实际和需要,对风险矩阵法进行了改进,并将风险矩阵法引入医院建筑的火灾风险评价,提出一种融合改进风险矩阵法与层次分析法的医院建筑火灾风险评价模型,并实例验证该模型的有效性和可行性.     

我国建筑企业核心竞争力评价体系研究

对建筑企业核心竞争力的理论渊源与内涵特征进行了分析,并通过对国内建筑企业的调研,构建了包括建筑引领能力、建筑整合能力和建筑品牌能力三个方面的建筑企业核心竞争力评价指标体系.在此基础上,运用层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评判方法(FCE)建立了建筑企业核心竞争力评价模型,并以实例为证,为建筑企业有效的识别与评价其核心竞争力提供了理论依据.     

基于熵权的模糊物元模型在城市生态安全评价中的应用

在模糊物元分析的基础上,结合熵值法和欧氏贴近度概念,构建用于城市生态安全评价的模糊物元模型,详细介绍了该模型的计算步骤,应用该模型对郑州市的生态安全进行了综合评价,并将评价结果与灰色关联法的评价结果进行了比较.结果表明,建立的模型评价方法简单.评价结果可靠,具有一定的实用性.     

基于博弈论偏序集的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评价模型研究

准确评价煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险是预防与控制瓦斯爆炸事故的重要前提。基于偏序集理论，提出瓦斯爆炸风险的博弈论偏序集评价模型。依据分级准则划分风险安全等级，对影响瓦斯爆炸风险因素进行综合分析，最终选取通风设施设备、瓦斯涌出量、风量供需比、安全教育与培训等14项指标(记为y₁-y₁₄)构成模型的指标集合并进行博弈论优化。运用该模型对20个矿井样本(记为A1-A20)进行风险等级评价，结果表明：模型评价结果的Hasse图表达较为准确。偏序集模型中的各指标权重ω经博弈论法优化后均处于平衡状态，保证了偏序关系的转化，充分发挥出偏序集评价模型中若指标权重次序固定评价结果稳健这一特性。为煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险的评价提供了一种新思路。     

杭州市水环境安全评价与预警模型

水环境安全预警是城市水资源安全利用过程中不可或缺的一个重要环节.根据"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)模型,在充分考虑杭州市水环境实际状况的基础上,构建杭州市水环境安全评价指标体系;运用物元模型和可拓评价方法建立杭州市水环境安全预警模型.对杭州市历年的水环境实际样本数据进行分析与整理,利用预警模型对杭州市水环境安全现状进行评价,指出了影响杭州市水环境安全的恶化因素,对未来状况作出预警分析,并提出杭州市水环境安全的保障建议.     

安全投资经济效益的一种评估模型

从企业是否有安全投资及事故损失分析了生产系统的三种状态.通过对生产系统中现金流量的变化分析了投入、产出和安全投资效益的内在变化关系.通过"有无对比法"对生产系统"有安全投资"与"无安全投资"进行对比,分析了生产系统在极端状态和现实状态两种状态下安全投资效益与事故损失之间的相互作用和变化规律,推导出通常情况下安全投资效益与事故损失的相互变化的4种关系,及其每种关系下的安全投资效益.推导结论为企业进行安全投资效益评估提供了理论依据,从企业角度建立起了评估安全投资效益的基本理论.     

基于Elmeri指标体系的煤矿作业区安全风险模糊综合评价

2016年起我国推行煤矿安全风险分级管控与隐患排查治理双重预防机制,各煤矿积极探索自主管理之路,如何将作业区域的风险辨识与总体评价有机结合,建立综合评价模型是值得探讨的课题.本文给出一种便捷的安全风险模糊评价模型首先基于Elmeri指标体系构建了安全的行为、健康危险源、事故危险源、重大事故控制和应急准备5个一级指标和15个二级指标,在作业区进行现场观察,计算出安全指数作为风险管控的依据,采用层次分析法确定指标权重采用梯形分布确定隶属度函数,在总体评价中确定了好、较好、一般、差四个模糊评价等级,根据M(.,+)模型和最大隶属度原则确定作业区域安全风险等级,并在煤矿进行现场应用,该模型方法简单,将定量的风险辨识数据与综合评价有机结合起来,评价结果与实际相符,值得在国内外推广.     

Metabolic Systemic Computing: Exploiting Innate Immunity within an Artificial Organism for On-line Self-Organisation and Anomaly Detection

Previous work suggests that innate immunity and representations of tissue can be useful when combined with artificial immune systems. Here we provide a new implementation of tissue for artificial immune systems using systemic computation, a new model of computation and corresponding computer architecture based on a systemics world-view and supplemented by the incorporation of natural characteristics. We show using systemic computation how to create an artificial organism, a program with metabolism that eats data, expels waste, self-organise cells based on the nature of its food and emits danger signals suitable for an artificial immune system. The implementation is tested by application to two standard machine learning sets and shows excellent abilities to recognise anomalies in its diet as well as a consistent datawise self-organisation.     

基于高维突变模型的海上通道安全预警研究

为了在海上通道突发事件发生前给出可能的危险等级,减少海上通道突发事件造成的损失和提高海上通道预警与应急管理能力,本文针对海上通道安全突发事件的复杂性,提出一种历史案例分析与高维突变级数相结合的新方法。首先,通过对历史突发事件案例的统计分析,得出海上通道安全的主要风险源因素,并由此建立了海上通道安全预警指标体系。其次,将突变级数法在高维指标应用方面进行了推广,建立海上通道安全预警模型,并根据历史案例数据计算模型的预警阈值。最后,选取了实际案例对预警模型进行了检验,检验结果表明模型可以对海上通道突发事件进行有效预警。     

Impact of Technology Assimilation on Investment Policy: Dynamic Optimization and Econometric Identification

The paper introduces a dynamic model of optimization of R&D intensity under the effect of technology assimilation. The model involves R&D investments, technology stock, production, and technology productivity as main variables. The model characterizes the “growth” and “decline” trends that describe the interaction between R&D investments and transformation process of production factors. The technology stock is constructed as a function of indigenous and exogenous technology stocks and their growth rates. The research focuses on the issue of a reasonable balance between the indigenous technology stock and assimilated technology flow. Econometric linearization of the technology assimilation effect is used to construct a reasonable optimal control model. The existence of the value function for the problem of the optimal economic growth on the infinite horizon is proved and the basic features of the value function are outlined. The property of strong invariance for the main proportions of the model such as technology productivity and R&D intensity is proved. The model is calibrated on the aggregate data of the Japanese automotive industry. The research was sponsored by the SIMOT Program of the Japanese Ministry of Education, Science and Technology. The second author was supported by the Russian Fund for Basic Research, Grants 05-01-00601, 05-01-08034, by the Russian Fund for Humanities, Grant RFH 05-02-02118a, and by the Program for the Sponsorship of Leading Scientific Schools, Grant NSCH-791.2003.1.     

生产安全事故宏观发展态势的计量经济学研究

为了研究工矿商贸就业人员10万人生产安全事故死亡率时间序列变化特征,基于我国行业生产安全事故死亡人数及第二、三产业就业人员数量等2方面年度统计数据,通过研究事故死亡率时间序列的自回归移动平均过程,论文构建了事故死亡率时间序列的分阶段自回归移动平均模型.研究表明:工矿商贸行业10万人事故死亡率变化趋势具有明显的分阶段波动特征,事故死亡率序列均为趋势平稳过程;序列当期观测值与滞后1期观测值具有显著的自相关性;各阶段事故率自回归移动平均模型结构不尽相同;特征描述模型为正确把握我国安全生产状况及趋势提供理论依据.     

安全生产监管的博弈论分析

分析了国家、地方管理部门和企业三者的相互关系,建立博弈数学模型,并分析了如何保证企业安全生产和如何防止地方管理部门与企业合谋.     

A novel chaos danger model immune algorithm

Making use of ergodicity and randomness of chaos, a novel chaos danger model immune algorithm (CDMIA) is presented by combining the benefits of chaos and danger model immune algorithm (DMIA). To maintain the diversity of antibodies and ensure the performances of the algorithm, two chaotic operators are proposed. Chaotic disturbance is used for updating the danger antibody to exploit local solution space, and the chaotic regeneration is referred to the safe antibody for exploring the entire solution space. In addition, the performances of the algorithm are examined based upon several benchmark problems. The experimental results indicate that the diversity of the population is improved noticeably, and the CDMIA exhibits a higher efficiency than the danger model immune algorithm and other optimization algorithms.     

The impact of disaster on the strategic interaction between company and government

A company allocates a resource between safety effort and production. The government earns taxes on production. The disaster probability is modeled as a contest between the disaster magnitude and the two players’ safety efforts. The model illustrates that safety efforts are strategic substitutes and inverse U shaped in the disaster magnitude. The company’s safety effort increases, and the government’s safety effort decreases, in taxation. Taxation can ameliorate companies’ free riding on governments’ safety efforts. With sufficiently large production, the government prefers, and the company does not prefer, raising taxation above 0%. For the government, an upper limit usually exists above which taxation cannot be profitably increased. The model shows how both or no players exert safety efforts when the disaster magnitude is small and large respectively, and how they free ride on each other’s safety efforts when the disaster magnitude is intermediate. The company free rides when the unit production cost is low so that the large profits outweigh the negative impact of the disaster. With endogenized taxation determined by the government, the tax rate decreases in the disaster magnitude, the unit production cost, the government’s unit cost of safety effort, and how the company is negatively affected by the disaster. The tax rate increases in the company’s resource and how the government is negatively affected by the disaster. The tax rate is weakly U shaped in the company’s unit safety effort. The model is illustrated with numerical examples and with the oil spill disasters by BP in 2010 and by Exxon Valdez in 1989.     

Application of Benders’ decomposition to power plant preventive maintenance scheduling

Power plant preventive maintenance scheduling consists of knowing which generating units to take off line for regular safety inspection. This problem is extremely important because a failure in a power station may cause a general breakdown in an electric network. The principal danger is that customer electricity demand will not be satisfied in such cases. The problem is approached from the operations research perspective as a question of optimisation. Benders’ decomposition technique is used to solve the resulting model. An example of this application is included. The algorithm is put to use in a real power plant setting. The obtained result is a schedule that allows the efficient organisation of preventive maintenance over the time horizon considered.