我国价格贸易条件及其波动性对经济增长影响的实证研究

本文考察了1980~2010年间我国价格贸易条件均值水平及波动性变化对经济增长的影响.研究结果表明:不仅价格贸易条件均值水平对我国的经济增长具有明显推动作用,而且价格贸易条件波动性也与经济增长之间存在着显著的正相关关系.研究结论和基于跨国数据所得出的"价格贸易条件波动性与经济增长之间负相关"的经验结论截然不同.这意味着我国在管理和干预价格贸易条件变化过程中,不要忽视适度的价格贸易条件波动性对经济增长的正向影响和积极作用.     

激励中测评行为对绩效的影响研究

绩效评估一直是激励设计的核心问题,直接决定激励的强度与有效性.绩效评估是否有效取决于评估指标与真实产出的一致性或扭曲程度,对企业有价值的绩效指标能够尽可能反映被评估行为的最大价值.在“多任务”代理理论的框架下,将测评指标内生为管理者的行为,构造了三级激励结构,讨论了管理者测评行为的努力对激励强度、被测行为等的影响.该激励模型可用于供应链上的激励机制分析.     

国有股权、国际化水平和企业绩效的阶段动态对比研究——基于我国中小企业板上市公司的实证研究

以中小企业板上市公司为研究对象,考察了国际化背景下不同发展阶段企业国有股权和绩效之间的相互关系.独立样本T检验和二元选择模型证明国有股权和国际化水平之间呈现负相关关系;面板数据模型拟合了国际化水平和企业绩效之间的循环S型关系.在此基础上运用166家企业2004-2015年的面板数据分析了国有股权和企业绩效之间的关系.研究表明,在创业期到创业后期,两者关系从线性下降变为U型关系,国有股权和更多大股东的股权制衡关系对企业绩效产生显著影响,同时,国际化对绩效的影响较为稳定,国际化水平和股权制衡的交互作用对企业绩效产生负面影响,并且这种负面性逐渐变小.对于43家国有大型企业下属小公司的进一步研究发现国有股权和企业绩效依然为U型关系,随着大股东数量的增加,股东制衡效应对企业发展起到正面的推动作用,国际化的影响并不显著.     

股权激励与公司绩效：基于调整成本

文章从调整成本角度出发,运用广义矩估计法重新审视股权激励与公司绩效之间的关系,并寻找调整成本的决定因素．在不考虑调整成本的传统模型下,公司绩效对于股权激励有显著的负向影响,但考虑调整成本后影响不再显著;在决定因素方面,股权激励的调整速度与机构投资者持股比例、高管数量以及市场价格正相关,公司绩效的调整速度与沉没成本正相关而与公司定价能力负相关．     

基于石油行业影响股票流动性的实证分析

采用买卖价差和市场深度代表股票流动性水平,根据Brockman&Chung模型分析了影响我国股市流动性的因素.研究发现,交易量与流动性正相关,股票价格及股票收益率的波动性与流动性呈负相关关系.但当流动性选取的指标不同时,股票价格对其影响也是存在差异的.     

基于VECM-MGARCH模型的人民币汇率与牛熊股市关系研究

2005年以来人民币汇率均处于升值过程,而股市却经历了牛、熊市的历程.本文基于VECM-MGARCH模型实证研究了人民币汇率与我国股市处于牛、熊市期间二者之间的动态关系,结果发现,汇率和股价之间不存在线性的相互影响关系.就波动性而言,股市处于牛市期间,二者之间存在相互影响关系;熊市期间,这种非线性关系消失.人民币升值预期的减弱及股市的下跌是导致二者关系变化的主要原因.     

河南省“三废”排放的库兹涅茨曲线特征及其成因的灰色关联度分析

选取河南省2001-2011年经济与环境数据,在SPSS软件的支持下,建立河南省经济发展水平与"三废"排放状况的计量模型,分析"三废"排放的库兹涅茨曲线特征;并通过计算环境状况及其影响因子之间的灰色关联度,定量剖析了河南省"三废"排放的库兹涅茨曲线成因.结果表明:河南省在研究时段内,人均"三废"排放与人均GDP之间的关系并不都符合标准的环境库兹涅茨曲线(倒"U"型)关系,而是呈现出"三次曲线"、倒"U"和"凹函数"三种环境库兹涅茨类型;经济发展水平是影响环境质量状况的重要因子,但却不是唯一因素,另外能源利用、产业结构、城市规模、环境意识、环境投资等都对环境库兹涅茨曲线具有一定的解释意义.     

对我国期货市场波动性的分阶段实证研究

波动性是经济和金融研究的热点问题。本文首先采用无条件波动度量方法对我国三大期货市场1997年—2004年的波动性进行了估计,发现第一阶段97年—02年期货价格总体呈下跌趋势,三大市场整体波动性不大,较高的波动性都出现在期货价格下跌时期,较低的波动性都出现在期货价格上涨时期;第二阶段03年—04年三大市场波动性显著提高,总体价格呈上升趋势,较高的波动性都出现在期货价格上涨时期,而较低的波动性都出现在期货价格下跌时期;本文进一步采用条件波动模型对我国三大期货市场两个阶段收益率与波动性的相关关系及波动性的杠杆效应进行了研究,结果表明铜期货收益率与波动性显著相关,大豆期货收益率与波动性不显著相关;我国三大期货市场均存在杠杆效应,并且两个阶段波动性的杠杆效应相反,其中铜期货市场的杠杆效应更显著。     

大股东关系经济后果实证研究——基于公司绩效和盈余质量的评价视角

本文关注了中国社会文化中的"关系"特质在上市公司的体系特征及其影响。通过对上市公司前十大股东的调查和分析,我们发现约有50%的上市公司中,其前十大股东之间存在联结关系。在对大股东联结关系进行分类统计的基础上,本文进一步检验了大股东关系的经济后果。研究发现,大股东关系的存在增加了上市公司股东网络的社会资本,社会资本的正向效果比较明显,从而使得大股东之间有联结关系的上市公司,其财务绩效和盈余质量显著高于大股东之间不存在联结关系的公司。     

网络组织治理绩效影响因素的实证研究

本文从网络治理目标、治理结构、治理机制、治理环境四个方面分析网络治理绩效的影响因素,在具有典型网络合作特征的企业展开调查获得第一手资料,运用结构方程模型对网络治理绩效的影响因素进行实证检验。结果表明,成员企业之间的差异性越大、资源互补性越强、文化兼容性越好、关系资本强度越高,治理绩效越好;治理目标、治理环境和治理机制对治理绩效存在一定影响,但对我国企业而言具有其特殊性。     

Optimal portfolio choice and stochastic volatility

In this paper we examine the effect of stochastic volatility on optimal portfolio choice in both partial and general equilibrium settings. In a partial equilibrium setting we derive an analog of the classic Samuelson–Merton optimal portfolio result and define volatility‐adjusted risk aversion as the effective risk aversion of an individual investing in an asset with stochastic volatility. We extend prior research which shows that effective risk aversion is greater with stochastic volatility than without for investors without wealth effects by providing further comparative static results on changes in effective risk aversion due to changes in the distribution of volatility. We demonstrate that effective risk aversion is increasing in the constant absolute risk aversion and the variance of the volatility distribution for investors without wealth effects. We further show that for these investors a first‐order stochastic dominant shift in the volatility distribution does not necessarily increase effective risk aversion, whereas a second‐order stochastic dominant shift in the volatility does increase effective risk aversion. Finally, we examine the effect of stochastic volatility on equilibrium asset prices. We derive an explicit capital asset pricing relationship that illustrates how stochastic volatility alters equilibrium asset prices in a setting with multiple risky assets, where returns have a market factor and asset‐specific random components and multiple investor types. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基金风险改变了投资者的业绩敏感程度吗？——基于基金业绩波动与资金净流量关系的实证研究

本文利用我国2005年至2011年期间开放式基金的面板数据,研究了基金业绩波动对投资者业绩敏感程度的影响。在验证了基金资金净流量与基金业绩的正相关关系后,实证研究发现:(1)基金业绩波动降低了投资者对基金业绩的敏感程度:基金业绩波动越大,相同业绩提升带来的资金净流量越少;(2)对于不同业绩类型的基金,业绩波动对基金“业绩—资金净流量”关系的反向影响程度也有所不同:这一影响主要体现在绩劣基金中,中等业绩基金次之,在明星基金中反而体现为正向影响。     

Optimal compensation with adverse selection and dynamic actions

We consider continuous-time models in which the agent is paid at the end of the time horizon by the principal, who does not know the agent’s type. The agent dynamically affects either the drift of the underlying output process, or its volatility. The principal’s problem reduces to a calculus of variation problem for the agent’s level of utility. The optimal ratio of marginal utilities is random, via dependence on the underlying output process. When the agent affects the drift only, in the risk- neutral case lower volatility corresponds to the more incentive optimal contract for the smaller range of agents who get rent above the reservation utility. If only the volatility is affected, the optimal contract is necessarily non-incentive, unlike in the first-best case. We also suggest a procedure for finding simple and reasonable contracts, which, however, are not necessarily optimal. Research supported in part by NSF grants DMS 04-03575 and 06-31298. We would like to express our gratitude to participants of the following seminars and conferences for useful comments and suggestions: UCLA (Econ Theory), Caltech (Econ Theory), Columbia (Probability), Princeton (Fin. Engineering), U. Texas at Austin (Math Finance), Banff Workshop on Optim. Problems in Fin. Econ, Kyoto U. (Economics), UC Irvine (Probability), Cornell (Fin. Engineering), Bachelier Seminar. Moreover, we are very grateful to the anonymous referee for helpful suggestions. The remaining errors are the authors’ sole responsibility.     

The weighted Russell measure of technical efficiency

Theoretical consideration of technical efficiency has existed since Koopmans [10] defined it for production possibilities for which it is not possible to increase any output without simultaneously increasing any input, ceteris paribus. The nonparametric approach to efficiency measurement known as Data Envelopment Analysis is based on the index of Farrell [9], which measures radial reduction in all inputs consistent with observed output. Even after Farrell efficiency is achieved, however, there may exist additional slack in individual inputs, suggesting that the Farrell index does not necessarily measure Koopmans inefficiency. To solve this problem, the non-radial Russell measure was introduced. This paper shows that problems may arise with the Russell measure due to restrictive assumptions on the implicit weighting of inputs and outputs. This paper develops a new measure, the Weighted Russell measure, that relaxes this assumption. Using simulated data, the new measure is shown to be preferred to existing methods. In addition, the new method is applied to analyze the performance of New York State school districts.     

Measuring endogenous supply chain volatility: Beyond the bullwhip effect

Most recent research on supply chain volatility has focused on one particular dimension of that volatility, namely the amplification of upstream order variability. While not ignoring this aspect of supply chain volatility, we focus on a different but equally critical aspect of volatility: the cyclical oscillation of on-hand and on-order inventories about their target values. We prove that such cyclicality does not require oscillatory or random retailer demand as a prerequisite; the resulting volatility is therefore endogenous rather than simply an amplification of exogenous demand inputs. We also measure the amount of amplification resulting from a step increase in demand. The order amplification is the product of two factors, each of which is clearly linked to either on-hand or on-order inventory. Our results attest that supply chain volatility can arise in the absence of exogenous oscillatory or random demand and suggest strategies for avoiding or minimizing such volatility.     

随机执行日经理股票期权的定价及激励效用分析

针对标准支付型经理股票期权执行日确定的问题,提出具有随机执行日的支付型经理股票期权的定价公式;选择期权价值对股票价格的敏感性(delta)、期权价值对股票收益波动率的敏感性(vega)对经理股票期权进行激励效用分析;并通过改变部分参数的值,分析期权对经理激励作用的变化.     

代理人在职消费对动态多任务激励契约的影响

将代理人的在职消费行为引入到动态多任务委托代理框架中,构造了代理人在职消费行为下的两阶段多任务模型,分析了代理人在职消费行为对动态多任务激励契约的影响.研究结果表明:一是任务为两阶段时,无论代理人有无在职消费行为,代理人的努力程度随着时间均呈上升趋势,这就表明当委托人在设计契约时,如果委托人期望代理人在第一阶段的努力水平不低于第二阶段的努力水平,就需要适当提高第一阶段的业绩薪酬系数;二是代理人在职消费自利行为并不一定会提高自身的努力程度,需要依据在职消费行为对绩效的影响情形来具体分析;三是在两阶段内,代理人存在在职消费时,委托人可适当降低业绩薪酬系数.     

基于复合式团队两阶段道德风险模型的担保企业评委激励机制

学术界将团队道德风险与两阶段道德风险模型结合构建复合式模型成为激励理论新研究的趋势.然而,这种复合式模型对团队成员间协作,业务两阶段间努力的影响以及代理人的行为因素考虑不足.以担保企业的评委团队在评议会和评审会两阶段的道德风险为研究对象,运用经济学激励理论和最优理论与算法,构造了团队两阶段道德风险复合模型,并通过数值仿真揭示了评委团队在不同规模人数下,团队成员的业务两阶段的努力影响因子,评委团队协作度、两阶段评委道德敏感度与激励强度的关系.主要研究结果表明:在业务评议会阶段,评委团队为3~5人规模,且两阶段努力影响因子偏小或评委道德敏感度偏大时,对该阶段评委团队应施加高激励;而当评委间的协作度为中等或高水平时,随着评委间协作度的增加,对该阶段评委团队的激励强度应递减.在业务评审会阶段,随着评委人数的增加且评委两阶段的努力影响因子减小,对该阶段评委团队应施以较强的正激励;随着评委道德敏感度的减小或评委的协作度增加,对该阶段评委应强化正激励.     

Rare Shock,Two-Factor Stochastic Volatility and Currency Option Pricing

Abstract

In this paper, we develop an option valuation model where the dynamics of the spot foreign exchange rate is governed by a two-factor Markov-modulated jump-diffusion process. The short-term fluctuation of stochastic volatility is driven by a Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) process and the long-term variation of stochastic volatility is driven by a continuous-time Markov chain which can be interpreted as economy states. Rare events are governed by a compound Poisson process with log-normal jump amplitude and stochastic jump intensity is modulated by a common continuous-time Markov chain. Since the market is incomplete under regime-switching assumptions, we determine a risk-neutral martingale measure via the Esscher transform and then give a pricing formula of currency options. Numerical results are presented for investigating the impact of the long-term volatility and the annual jump intensity on option prices.     

Are we using the wrong letters? An analysis of executive stock option Greeks

Greek letters, in particular delta and vega based on the Black–Scholes model (BS), have been widely used to estimate the sensitivity of CEO wealth to changes in stock price (delta) and stock return volatility (vega) and to evaluate the executive stock options (ESOs) granted on the basis of performance and risk. However, the BS model does not take into account the main features of ESOs and therefore the delta and vega values it produces are not valid. The Cvitanic–Wiener–Zapatero model (CWZ) is an alternative model to Black–Scholes for valuing ESOs. It has a closed formula and considers the main features of ESOs. We carry out a sensitivity analysis to show that research on option-based compensation and its risk-taking effects is not robust in ESO pricing models. The sensitivity analysis consists of comparing the impact of the common parameters of the BS and CWZ models, as well as the effect of the specific parameters of the CWZ model, on the sensitivity of CEO wealth to stock price and stock volatility. Additionally, using panel data methodology, we develop an empirical analysis to illustrate the influence of stock return volatility and different corporate policies on both CEO wealth sensitivities.