高阶隐马氏模型研究进展

首先分析了高阶隐马氏模型的研究动机和背景,并给出了高阶隐马氏模型的一般结构和定义,然后总结了高阶隐马氏模型的一般研究方法,最后展望了高阶隐马氏模型进一步的研究方向.     

一个阶为2+\sqrt{6}的Newton改进算法

针对非线性方程求单根问题,提出了一种新的Newton预测-校正格式.通过每步迭代增加计算一个函数值和一阶导数值,使得每步迭代需要估计两个函数值和两个一阶导数值.与标准的Newton算法的二阶收敛速度相比,新算法具有更高阶的收敛速度2+\sqrt{6}.通过测试函数对新算法进行测试, 与相关算法比较,表明算法在迭代次数、运算时间及最优值方面都具有较明显的优势. 最后,将这种新格式推广到多维向量值函数, 采用泰勒公式证明了其收敛性,并给出了两个二维算例来验证其收敛的有效性.     

基于二维真实隐马氏模型的手写体文字识别算法

近几年来，人们采用各种方法试图将1D隐马氏模型(HMM)^[2]推广到2D隐马氏模型。令人失望的是由于在建立合适的2D模型及其计算上的复杂度问题上存在困难，前面的尝试都没有得到一个真实的2DHMM．本文对于应用真实2D隐马氏模型(隐马氏网格随机场HMMRF)^[1,4]进行手写字符识别问题提出新的框架，针对文献[1]中的单点最优算法给出局部最优的译码算法。HMMRF模型是1D隐马氏模型到2D的扩展，能更好的描述字符的2D特性。HMMRF在字符识别中的应用具有两个相——学习相和译码相。在学习相和译码相中我们的最优标准是基于极大边缘后验概率的。不过，在涉及到2D模型中的计算问题时，对模型做出某些简单化的假设是必要的。本文用到的方法对于在合理的模型假设下解决手写字符识别问题呈现了很大的潜力。     

一个阶为2+6~(1/2)的Newton改进算法

针对非线性方程求单根问题,提出了一种新的Newton预测-校正格式.通过每步迭代增加计算一个函数值和一阶导数值,使得每步迭代需要估计两个函数值和两个一阶导数值.与标准的Newton算法的二阶收敛速度相比,新算法具有更高阶的收敛速度2+6~(1/2).通过测试函数对新算法进行测试,与相关算法比较,表明算法在迭代次数、运算时间及最优值方面都具有较明显的优势.最后,将这种新格式推广到多维向量值函数,采用泰勒公式证明了其收敛性,并给出了两个二维算例来验证其收敛的有效性.     

二阶离散隐马尔科夫模型的严格定义及等价性质

隐马氏模型作为一种具有双重随机过程的统计模型,具有可靠的概率统计理论基础和强有力的数学结构,已被广泛应用于语音识别、生物序列分析、金融数据分析等领域.由于传统的一阶隐马氏模型无法表示更远状态距离间的依赖关系,就可能会忽略很多有用的统计特征,故有人提出二阶隐马氏模型的概念,但此概念并不严格.本文给出二阶离散隐马尔科夫模型的严格定义,并研究了二阶离散隐马尔科夫模型的两个等价性质.     

剖面隐马氏模型训练算法的改进

利用剖面隐马氏模型获得多序列联配，一般需要经过初始化、训练、联配三个过程．然而，目前广泛采用的Baum—welch训练算法假设各条可观察序列互相独立，这与实际情况有所不符．本文对剖面隐马氏模型，给出可观察序列在互相不独立情况下的改进Baum—wlelch算法，在可观察序列两种特殊情况下（互相独立和一致依赖），得到了改进算法的具体表达式，讨论了一般情况下权重的选取方法．最后通过一个具体的蛋白质家族的多序列联配来说明改进算法的效果．     

基于机制转换模型的碳排放权期权定价

机制转换模型可以将外部环境的变化迅速反映到对模型参数的调整中,故运用马氏链刻画外部机制建立机制转换模型,基于此进行碳排放权期权定价。为实现其价值函数的数值计算,首次设计并证明了一套倒向递归算法,该算法依据马氏链跳跃的划分实现递归,从而克服了马氏链带来的运算高复杂度,其数值结果展示了完整的波动率微笑和期限结构。最后通过与前人提出的算法以及蒙特卡洛模拟比较表明,倒向递归算法可获得更高的准确性和运算效率。     

向量值有理插值的逐步降阶算法

通过对向量值有理插值的分析,得到一个重要性质,根据这个性质,给出了计算向量值有理插值函数的逐步降阶算法.该算法具有运算量少,易于实现的特点.     

基于PCP特征的和弦识别研究与探讨

讨论了音乐识别领域中和弦的四种不同识别方法,给出了基于PCP特征的和弦识别算法.使用PCP作为和弦的特征作为输入送至隐马尔可夫模型中训练,利用Baum-Welch算法估计模型参数,通过Viterbi算法得到正确和弦.通过实验获得了76%的识别率,验证了该算法的可行性.     

车路耦合非线性振动高阶Galerkin截断研究

将移动车辆模型化为运动的两自由度质量-弹簧-阻尼系统,道路模型化为立方非线性黏弹性地基上的弹性梁,并将路面不平度设定为简谐函数．通过受力分析,建立车路非线性耦合振动高阶偏微分方程．采用高阶Galerkin截断结合数值方法求解耦合系统的动态响应．首次研究不同截断阶数对车路耦合非线性振动动态响应的影响,确定Galerkin截断研究车路耦合振动的收敛性．研究结果表明,对于软土地基的沥青路面,耦合振动的动态响应,需要150阶以上的截断才能达到收敛效果．并通过高阶收敛的Galerkin截断研究了系统参数对车路耦合非线性振动动态响应的影响.     

Generalisation of the Viterbi algorithm

The Viterbi algorithm, derived using dynamic programming techniques,is a maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding method which was developedin the electrical engineering literature to be used in the analysisof hidden Markov models (HMMs). Given a particular HMM, theoriginal algorithm recovers the MAP state sequence underlyingany observation sequence generated from that model. This paperintroduces a generalization of the algorithm to recover, forarbitrary L, the top L most probable state sequences, with specialreference to its use in the area of automatic speech recognition.     

Existence of infinite Viterbi path for pairwise Markov models

For hidden Markov models one of the most popular estimates of the hidden chain is the Viterbi path — the path maximizing the posterior probability. We consider a more general setting, called the pairwise Markov model, where the joint process consisting of finite-state hidden regime and observation process is assumed to be a Markov chain. We prove that under some conditions it is possible to extend the Viterbi path to infinity for almost every observation sequence which in turn enables to define an infinite Viterbi decoding of the observation process, called the Viterbi process. This is done by constructing a block of observations, called a barrier, which ensures that the Viterbi path goes through a given state whenever this block occurs in the observation sequence.     

Asymptotic risks of Viterbi segmentation

We consider the maximum likelihood (Viterbi) alignment of a hidden Markov model (HMM). In an HMM, the underlying Markov chain is usually hidden and the Viterbi alignment is often used as the estimate of it. This approach will be referred to as the Viterbi segmentation. The goodness of the Viterbi segmentation can be measured by several risks. In this paper, we prove the existence of asymptotic risks. Being independent of data, the asymptotic risks can be considered as the characteristics of the model that illustrate the long-run behavior of the Viterbi segmentation.     

On the Accuracy of the MAP Inference in HMMs

In a hidden Markov model, the underlying Markov chain is usually unobserved. Often, the state path with maximum posterior probability (Viterbi path) is used as its estimate. Although having the biggest posterior probability, the Viterbi path can behave very atypically by passing states of low marginal posterior probability. To avoid such situations, the Viterbi path can be modified to bypass such states. In this article, an iterative procedure for improving the Viterbi path in such a way is proposed and studied. The iterative approach is compared with a simple batch approach where a number of states with low probability are all replaced at the same time. It can be seen that the iterative way of adjusting the Viterbi state path is more efficient and it has several advantages over the batch approach. The same iterative algorithm for improving the Viterbi path can be used when it is possible to reveal some hidden states and estimating the unobserved state sequence can be considered as an active learning task. The batch approach as well as the iterative approach are based on classification probabilities of the Viterbi path. Classification probabilities play an important role in determining a suitable value for the threshold parameter used in both algorithms. Therefore, properties of classification probabilities under different conditions on the model parameters are studied.     

Swallowing sound detection using hidden markov modeling of recurrence plot features

Automated detection of swallowing sounds in swallowing and breath sound recordings is of importance for monitoring purposes in which the recording durations are long. This paper presents a novel method for swallowing sound detection using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features. Tracheal sound recordings of 15 healthy and nine dysphagic subjects were studied. The multidimensional state space trajectory of each signal was reconstructed using the Taken method of delays. The sequences of three recurrence plot features of the reconstructed trajectories (which have shown discriminating capability between swallowing and breath sounds) were modeled by three hidden Markov models. The Viterbi algorithm was used for swallowing sound detection. The results were validated manually by inspection of the simultaneously recorded airflow signal and spectrogram of the sounds, and also by auditory means. The experimental results suggested that the performance of the proposed method using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features was superior to the previous swallowing sound detection methods.     

Estimating Hidden Semi-Markov Chains From Discrete Sequences

This article addresses the estimation of hidden semi-Markov chains from nonstationary discrete sequences. Hidden semi-Markov chains are particularly useful to model the succession of homogeneous zones or segments along sequences. A discrete hidden semi-Markov chain is composed of a nonobservable state process, which is a semi-Markov chain, and a discrete output process. Hidden semi-Markov chains generalize hidden Markov chains and enable the modeling of various durational structures. From an algorithmic point of view, a new forward-backward algorithm is proposed whose complexity is similar to that of the Viterbi algorithm in terms of sequence length (quadratic in the worst case in time and linear in space). This opens the way to the maximum likelihood estimation of hidden semi-Markov chains from long sequences. This statistical modeling approach is illustrated by the analysis of branching and flowering patterns in plants.     

On Adjusted Viterbi Training

The EM algorithm is a principal tool for parameter estimation in the hidden Markov models, where its efficient implementation is known as the Baum–Welch algorithm. This paper is however motivated by applications where EM is replaced by Viterbi training, or extraction (VT), also known as the Baum–Viterbi algorithm. VT is computationally less intensive and more stable, and has more of an intuitive appeal. However, VT estimators are also biased and inconsistent. Recently, we have proposed elsewhere the adjusted Viterbi training (VA), a new method to alleviate the above imprecision of the VT estimators while preserving the computational advantages of the baseline VT algorithm. The key difference between VA and VT is that asymptotically, the true parameter values are a fixed point of VA (and EM), but not of VT. We have previously studied VA for a special case of Gaussian mixtures, including simulations to illustrate its improved performance. The present work proves the asymptotic fixed point property of VA for general hidden Markov models. J. Lember is supported by Estonian Science Foundation Grant 5694.     

Revised simplex algorithm for finite Markov decision processes

We introduce a revised simplex algorithm for solving a typical type of dynamic programming equation arising from a class of finite Markov decision processes. The algorithm also applies to several types of optimal control problems with diffusion models after discretization. It is based on the regular simplex algorithm, the duality concept in linear programming, and certain special features of the dynamic programming equation itself. Convergence is established for the new algorithm. The algorithm has favorable potential applicability when the number of actions is very large or even infinite.     

A hidden Markov regime-switching model for option valuation

We investigate two approaches, namely, the Esscher transform and the extended Girsanov’s principle, for option valuation in a discrete-time hidden Markov regime-switching Gaussian model. The model’s parameters including the interest rate, the appreciation rate and the volatility of a risky asset are governed by a discrete-time, finite-state, hidden Markov chain whose states represent the hidden states of an economy. We give a recursive filter for the hidden Markov chain and estimates of model parameters using a filter-based EM algorithm. We also derive predictors for the hidden Markov chain and some related quantities. These quantities are used to estimate the price of a standard European call option. Numerical examples based on real financial data are provided to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method.