具有饱和治疗的禽流感动力学模型的研究

提出了一类带有治疗的禽流感动力学模型,用来分析禽流感从禽类向人类传播的过程.由于治疗禽流感的药物十分有限,提出一个带有饱和治疗的模型.通过讨论得知当禽流感疫情已经发生时,通过控制染病的禽类就可抑制禽流感在人类的传播.     

The spreading frontiers of avian-human influenza described by the free boundary

In this paper,a reaction-diffusion system is proposed to investigate avian-human influenza.Two free boundaries are introduced to describe the spreading frontiers of the avian influenza.The basic reproduction numbers rF0(t)and RF0(t)are defined for the bird with the avian influenza and for the human with the mutant avian influenza of the free boundary problem,respectively.Properties of these two time-dependent basic reproduction numbers are obtained.Sufficient conditions both for spreading and for vanishing of the avian influenza are given.It is shown that if rF0(0)<1 and the initial number of the infected birds is small,the avian influenza vanishes in the bird world.Furthermore,if rF0(0)<1 and RF0(0)<1,the avian influenza vanishes in the bird and human worlds.In the case that rF0(0)<1 and RF0(0)>1,spreading of the mutant avian influenza in the human world is possible.It is also shown that if rF0(t0)>1 for any t0>0,the avian influenza spreads in the bird world.     

Avian-human influenza epidemic model with diffusion

A diffusive epidemic model is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among birds and humans. The behavior of positive solutions to a reaction-diffusion system with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions are investigated. Sufficient conditions for the local and global asymptotical stability are given by spectral analysis and by using Lyapunov functional. Our result shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, if the contact rate for the susceptible birds and the contact rate for the susceptible humans are small. It suggests that the best policy to prevent the occurrence of a pandemic is not only to exterminate the infected birds with avian influenza but also to reduce the contact rate for susceptible humans with the individuals infected with mutant avian influenza. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the main results.     

周期演化域上一个禽流感模型的动力学分析

本文研究了周期演化区域上一个禽流感模型.首先假设区域的增长为各向同性,将模型转换为固定区域上的反应扩散问题.然后利用相关的特征值问题和上下解方法得出模型解的渐近性态.研究结果表明,周期性区域的演化对疾病的传播与抑制取决于区域的周期演化速率ρ(t)的积分平均值ρ-2=1/T∫0T1/ρ2(t)dt.若ρ-2>1,则周期性区域的演化可抑制疾病的传播;若ρ-2<1,则周期性区域的演化可加速疾病的传播;若ρ-2=1,则周期性区域的演化对疾病的传播没有影响.     

Modelling and analyzing the epidemic of human infections with the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in 2017 in China

In 2013, in mainland China, a novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus began to infect humans, followed by the annual outbreaks, and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans. After introducing the statistical characteristics including the geographical distributions of the outbreaks, a SEV‐SIRS eco‐epidemiological model is established and analyzed. In this model, the factor of virus in environment is incorporated into the model as a class; the vaccine measure in poultry is taken into account in purpose of assessing its control effect in 2017 in China; the nonmonotonic contact function is adopted to characterize the psychosocial effect. The stability of disease‐free equilibrium point (DFE) is obtained by the threshold theory; the stability of the endemic equilibrium point is gotten by the Bendixson criterion based on the geometric approach. Sensitivity analyses of system parameters indicate that the measure of vaccination in poultry can play its role but only when the vaccine rate is more than 98% can the disease control effect be effectively exerted, and the virus in environment is an extremely sensitive factor in the disease transmission and the epidemic control.     

Avian–human influenza epidemic model with diffusion,nonlocal delay and spatial homogeneous environment

In this paper, an avian–human influenza epidemic model with diffusion, nonlocal delay and spatial homogeneous environment is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among poultry, humans and environment. The behavior of positive solutions to a reaction–diffusion system with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions is investigated. By means of linearization method and spectral analysis the local asymptotical stability is established. The global asymptotical stability for the poultry sub-system is studied by spectral analysis and by using a Lyapunov functional. For the full system, the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is studied using the comparison Theorem for parabolic equations. Our result shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, whenever the contact rate for the susceptible poultry is small. This suggests that the best policy to prevent the occurrence of an epidemic is not only to exterminate the asymptomatic poultry but also to reduce the contact rate between susceptible humans and the poultry environment. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the main results.     

A fractional order epidemic model and simulation for avian influenza dynamics

We present a nonlinear fractional order epidemic model to investigate the spreading dynamical behavior of the avian influenza. The population of the model contains susceptible individuals, asymptomatic but infective latent individuals, and infective individuals. We first establish the existence, uniqueness, nonnegativity, and positive invariance of the solution, then we study the reproduction number of the model and the stability of the disease‐free equilibrium. We observe that the reproduction number varies with the order of the fractional derivative ν. In terms of epidemics, this suggests that varying ν induces a change in the avian's epidemic status. Furthermore, we derive the sufficient conditions for the existence and the stability of the endemic equilibrium. Finally, we carry out some numerical simulations to validate the analytical results. We find from simulations that the solution of the fractional order model tends to a stationary state over a longer period of time with decreasing the value of the fractional derivative, and the size of epidemic decreases with decreasing ν.     

Stochastic SIR model with jumps

People have always attached importance to the prevention and the control of the epidemic disease. The study of the epidemic model provides us a powerful tool. Unfortunately the previous model cannot be applied to massive diseases, such as avian influenza. Therefore we need to revise the model. In this paper, we take the lead in using the stochastic differential equation with jumps to study the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic SIR model.     

Psychological and behavioral effects in epidemiological model with imperfect vaccination compartment

The aim of this paper is to investigate the dynamic of two SEIVS models, which incorporate an imperfect vaccination compartment. In this paper, we focus on the psychological inhibition effect of vaccinated individuals and the efficacy of vaccine on the spread of disease. For the susceptible individuals, we consider the psychological inhibition effect through the nonmonotone incidence rate. We find the disease‐free and the disease persistent conditions. We also give some numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of behavioral change of the vaccinated individuals and the efficiency of vaccine. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elimination of limit cycles in a class of digital filters using single saturation nonlinearity

Using Lyapunov's direct method, a novel frequency-domain criterion for the elimination of limit cycles in a class of digital filters using single saturation nonlinearity is derived. The criterion turns out to be a generalization and improvement over an earlier criterion due to Kar and Singh. An example showing the effectiveness of the criterion is given. A graphical interpretation of a simplified version (involving one free parameter) of the criterion is discussed.     

一类具有非线性发生率的传染病模型的稳定性

建立和研究一类具有非线性发生率的传染病模型,得到该模型基本再生数R_0的表达式,运用Lyapunov函数和第二加性复合矩阵理论证明了当R_0<1时无病平衡点全局渐近稳定,此时疾病消失,当R_0>1时地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定,此时疾病在人群中流行.     

Make waiting not to seem like waiting: Capacity management of waiting-area entertainment

To operationalize the psychological principle that “occupied time feels shorter than unoccupied time”, it is common for service providers to offer entertainment options in the waiting areas. Typical examples that put in practice this mechanism include amusement parks, car dealers, airports, hospitals, restaurants, etc. In this paper, we study a queueing system where the server provides entertainment services to waiting customers. Assuming customers are strategic and delay-sensitive, we formulate a game-theoretical model and study customers' equilibrium behavior in response to this mechanism. Because offering waiting-area entertainment incurs extra operational costs, we discuss whether and when this option will benefit the service provider and obtain the optimal entertainment capacity that maximizes the system's profit. Our analysis reveals that this option is appealing if and only if the market size is intermediate and that the optimal capacity of the entertainment is a unimodal function in the market size. Our insights continue to remain valid when the service fee becomes endogenous.     

Solution of Volterra's population model via block‐pulse functions and Lagrange‐interpolating polynomials

A numerical method for solving Volterra's population model for population growth of a species in a closed system is proposed. Volterra's model is a nonlinear integro‐differential equation where the integral term represents the effects of toxin. The approach is based on hybrid function approximations. The properties of hybrid functions that consist of block‐pulse and Lagrange‐interpolating polynomials are presented. The associated operational matrices of integration and product are then utilized to reduce the solution of Volterra's model to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. The method is easy to implement and computationally very attractive. Applications are demonstrated through an illustrative example. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling the spread of bird flu and predicting outbreak diversity

Avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, is an epidemic caused by H5N1 virus that primarily affects birds like chickens, wild water birds, etc. On rare occasions, these can infect other species including pigs and humans. In the span of less than a year, the lethal strain of bird flu is spreading very fast across the globe mainly in South East Asia, parts of Central Asia, Africa and Europe. In order to study the patterns of spread of epidemic, we made an investigation of outbreaks of the epidemic in one week, that is from February 13–18, 2006, when the deadly virus surfaced in India. We have designed a statistical transmission model of bird flu taking into account the factors that affect the epidemic transmission such as source of infection, social and natural factors and various control measures are suggested. For modeling the general intensity coefficient f(r), we have implemented the recent ideas given in the article Fitting the Bill, Nature [R. Howlett, Fitting the bill, Nature 439 (2006) 402], which describes the geographical spread of epidemics due to transportation of poultry products. Our aim is to study the spread of avian influenza, both in time and space, to gain a better understanding of transmission mechanism. Our model yields satisfactory results as evidenced by the simulations and may be used for the prediction of future situations of epidemic for longer periods. We utilize real data at these various scales and our model allows one to generalize our predictions and make better suggestions for the control of this epidemic.     

Stability analysis and approximate solution of SIR epidemic model with Crowley-Martin type functional response and Holling type-II treatment rate by using homotopy analysis method

In this paper, SIR epidemic model with Crowley-Martin type functional response and Holling type-II treatment rate is investigated. The analysis of the model shows that it has two equilibria, namely disease-free and endemic. We investigate the existence and stability results of equilibria by using LaSalle''s invariant principle and Lyapunov function. $\mathfrak{R}_{0}$ has been found to ensure the extinction or persistence of the infection. Furthermore, homotopy analysis method is employed to obtain the series solution of the proposed model. By using the homotopy solutions, firstly, several $\hbar$-curves are plotted to demonstrate the regions of convergence, then the residual and square residual errors are obtained for different values of these regions. Secondly, the numerical solutions are presented for various iterations and the absolute error functions are applied to show the accuracy of the applied homotopy analysis method.     

Stability of periodic traveling flexural‐gravity waves in two dimensions

In this work, we solve the Euler's equations for periodic waves traveling under a sheet of ice. These waves are referred to as flexural‐gravity waves. We compare and contrast two models for the effect of the ice: a linear model and a nonlinear model. The benefit of this reformulation is that it facilitates the asymptotic analysis. We use it to derive the nonlinear Schrödinger equation that describes the modulational instability of periodic traveling waves. We compare this asymptotic result with the numerical computation of stability using the Fourier–Floquet–Hill method to show they agree qualitatively. We show that different models have different stability regimes for large values of the flexural rigidity parameter. Numerical computations are also used to analyze high‐frequency instabilities in addition to the modulational instability. In the regions examined, these are shown to be the same regardless of the model representing ice.     

New results on global asymptotic stability for a class of delayed Nicholson's blowflies model

This paper is concerned with a class of non‐autonomous delayed Nicholson's blowflies model, which is defined on the positive function space. Under proper conditions, we employ a novel proof to establish several criteria on the global asymptotic stability of zero equilibrium point for this model. Moreover, we give an example and its numerical simulation to illustrate our main results. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

广义Phillips模式非线性不稳定的饱和问题(Ⅰ)——基流不稳定时扰动演变的上界估计

在Arnd'd第二定理的范围内讨论广义Phillips模式非线性不稳定的饱和问题,对于因模式的物理参数与区域的几何参数不满足稳定判据而导致的不稳定基流,得到扰动能量与位涡拟能的上界估计。     

两相流体非线性渗流模型及其应用

基于三参数非线性渗流运动定律、质量守恒定律及椭圆渗流的概念,建立了低渗透介质中两相流体椭圆非线性渗流数学模型,运用有限差分法与外推法求得了其解,导出了两相流体椭圆非线性渗流条件下油井见水前后开发指标的计算公式,进行了实例分析。结果表明:非线性渗流对含水饱和度分布影响较大;非线性渗流使得水驱油推进速度比线性渗流的快,使油井见水时间提前,使得石油开发指标变差;非线性渗流使得同一时刻的压差比线性渗流的大,使石油开发难度加大。这为低渗油藏垂直裂缝井开发工程提供了科学依据。     

Analysis of a nonautonomous model for migratory birds with saturation incidence rate

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model is newly proposed to consider the role of migratory birds by incorporating the temporal pattern of the avian migration into the model. In the new model, population of birds varies because they are migratory in nature. Under quite weak assumptions, sufficient conditions for the permanence and extinction of the disease is obtained. Moreover, by constructing a Liapunov function, the global attractivity of the model is discussed.