我国就业人数的数学模型探析及前景预测

基于经济学理论和逐步回归分析方法优选影响就业较大的9个指标,建立了城镇就业人口数与该9个指标之间的数学模型.针对建筑、交通运输行业,东部、西部地区以及不同学历问题,建立了城镇就业人数的较精确数学模型.考虑国家宏观调控政策的影响,利用灰色模型和非线性回归模型优选预测2009年及2010年上半年的就业前景.最后,对提高我国城镇就业人口数提出相关建议.     

城镇就业人数影响因素分析

就业问题是宏观调控的四大目标之一,由于就业涉及的影响因素众多,仅仅只从数据来判断影响因子是缺乏理论依据的.首先对就业理论做了简单的回顾和综述后,通过对城镇就业人数的时间序列建立GARCH(1,1)模型,得到目标波动受自身特点影响占总原因的31%,而外部因素的冲击占69%的结论.随后,对综述部分定性分析总结的经济指标和劳动指标逐个进行格兰杰因果检验,发现部分宏观经济指标与目标指标间具有相互的因果关系,并且以城镇就业人数作为被解释变量以宏观指标作为解释变量建立VAR模型,发现城镇就业人数受就业总人数、经济活动人数、居民消费支出和固定资产投资影响很大.     

湖南省第三产业就业人数预测——基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型

运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对2002-2007年湖南省第三产业就业人数的数据进行分析.通过灰色系统相关检验发现,GM(1,1)模型误差较小,能较好地拟合湖南省第三产业就业人数的情况.运用该模型预测:2008年湖南省第三产业就业人数是1403.4万人,2009年是1512.2万人,2010年是1629.3万人,2011年是1755.6万人.     

基于灰色系统理论的平行数据模型及其在人才供求中的应用

以某普通高等学校毕业生和就业学生为分析对象.以灰色系统理论为基础,通过DGM(1,1)模型获取了2006—2007年该高校毕业人数和就业人数的预测值.并结合2001年到2005年统计数据,利用平行数据模型建立起了普通高等学校毕业人数与就业人数之间的关系模型,揭示了高校人才供求间的结构关系和政策影响力度.最后提出了几点相关建议.     

我国就业的影响因素分析

在经典就业理论的分析基础上,结合中国实际情况,从宏观因素、财政政策、货币政策、结构性因素、人力资本和其他随机因素等六大方面提炼出可能影响就业的指标.分别选取指标的全国年度数据和季度数据,运用逐步回归方法提取出影响整体就业情况的长期短期因素.运用多元回归模型对年度指标进一步进行长期关系分析;采用VAR模型对季度数据进一步进行短期关系分析;并运用所建立模型进行了预测.     

我国人口就业增长与经济发展状况的关系分析

就业问题是当今中国社会面临的突出问题。如何处理好经济发展速度、改革力度与就业问题的处理程度之间的关系 ,找准宏观调控的着力点十分重要。本文通过建立数学模型 ,运用数理统计的方法分析了我国各产业从业人员、总人口、国内生产总值和全社会固定资产投资之间的关系 ,反映了近年来我国就业增长状况的基本轮廊 ,得出了保持经济适度快速增长 ,大力发展第三产业以促进就业增长等观点     

基于主成分回归模型的湖南省就业影响因素分析

针对湖南省就业人数的影响因素问题,首先利用灰关联分析和相关系数法优选出对就业人数影响较大的指标,然后对优选的指标进行主成分分析得出了主成分表达式,最后将就业人数与主成分进行回归得到了就业人数的拟合方程.结果表明,城市化水平、国内生产总值和居民消费水平对湖南省就业人数的影响最大,从而为政府有关部门的决策提供了一定的参考依据.     

保密系统风险评估模型及方法研究

建立了一个对保密系统进行风险评估的递阶层次指标体系,对各层指标进行了权重分析,并建立了风险评估的数学模型.通过实例验证,模型能有效地反映保密系统风险水平.     

基于偏离-份额分析的产业用工与就业协调研究——以江苏制造业为例

选择全国、长三角和广东为三个参照区域,建立五分量偏离一份额模型,从时间、空间、指标、分量四维,对江苏2007-2013年江苏制造业在产值、农民工就业人数、农民工劳动报酬、农民工净收入和农民工平均收入等解释变量进行实证分析.结果表明:1)考察期江苏制造业产值比较竞争优势明显,农民工就业人数却相反.2)江苏农民工劳动报酬和净收入的相比于全国和长三角有比较优势,但劣于广东;增长水平正相反,劣于全国和长三角而优于广东.3)江苏制造业产值、农民工劳动报酬、农民工净收入和农民工收入差四个指标均具有空间竞争力.     

灰色理论和BP神经网络在大学生就业信心指数预测中的应用

采用大学生就业信心指数来分析预测其就业信心是值得研究的问题.提出一种灰色理论和BP神经网络相结合的方法对大学生就业信心指数进行预测.首先对影响就业信心的主要因素建立不同的灰色模型,然后将每个灰色模型的预测值作为神经网络的输入,利用神经网络进行组合预测以作为其最终的预测值.结果表明组合模型的预测值相对误差更小,精度更高.     

我国人口就业增长与经济发展状况的关系分析

Today the one of the main social problem is employment. It is very important that how to treat with the relations among growth rates of economy, reformation strength and good employment and find the key point of macro control. In this paper the relationship among the employment of each industries, population, GDP and total investment in fixed assets is studied by mathematical modeling and applied mathematical statistics analysis. It is drawn that the outline of growth rates of employed persons in recent years. By these analyses our point view is to develop the tertiary industry so as to enhance the growth rates of employed persons when the economic increasing keeps appropriate rate.     

The Relationship Analysis between the Rates of Amployment Increasing and Economic Developing

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Modeling the depletion of dissolved oxygen due to algal bloom in a lake by taking Holling type-III interaction

In this paper a non-linear mathematical model for depletion of dissolved oxygen due to algal bloom in a lake is proposed and analyzed. The model is formulated by considering four variables namely, cumulative concentration of nutrients, density of algal population, density of detritus and concentration of dissolved oxygen. In the modeling process it is assumed that nutrients are continuously coming with a constant rate to the lake through water runoff from agricultural fields and domestic drainage. The Holling type-III interaction between nutrients and algal population is considered. Equilibrium values have been obtained and their stability analysis has also been performed. Numerical simulations are carried out to explain the mathematical results.     

The survival analysis for a single-species population model in a polluted environment

This paper concentrates on studying the long-term behavior of a single-species population living in a polluted environment. A new mathematical model is derived assuming that a born organism takes with it a quantity of internal toxicant, and the amount of toxicant stored in each living organism which dies is drifted into the environment. Sufficient criteria for uniform persistence, weak persistence in the mean or extinction of the population are obtained. Also we find some sufficient conditions, depending on the parameters of the model and the clean up rate, under which the population will be persistent.     

MODELING THE DEPLETION OF A RENEWABLE RESOURCE BY POPULATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION: EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGY ON ITS CONSERVATION

Abstract In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the depletion of a renewable resource by population and industrialization with resource‐dependent migration. The effect of technology on resource conservation is also considered. In the modeling process, four variables are considered, namely, density of a renewable resource, population density, density of industrialization, and technological effort. Both the growth rate and carrying capacity of resource biomass, which follows logistic model, are assumed to be simultaneously depleted by densities of population and industrialization but it is conserved by technological effort. It is further assumed that densities of population and industrialization increase due to increase in the density of renewable resource. The growth rate of technological effort is assumed to be proportional to the difference of carrying capacity of resource biomass and its current density. The model is analyzed by using the stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. The model analysis shows that the biomass density decreases due to increase in densities of population and industrialization. It decreases further as the resource‐dependent industrial migration increases. But the resource may never become extinct due to population and industrialization, if technological effort is applied appropriately for its conservation.     

On the evolution of spatially distributed urban populations: Modelling and mathematical analysis

This paper deals with the construction and mathematical analysis of a new model for urban dynamics, which extends an initial one proposed by Y. Miyata and S. Yamaguchi in the context of a region of Japan. This new model includes spatial continuous structure and distinguishes two different time scales for the different processes taken into account: a slow one for the demography and a fast scale for the migration of individuals. Asymptotic behavior of solutions and stability of equilibria are established as a result of the combined action of demography and migration on population density and employment.     

A model of the direct interaction of elements of a tightly coupled system

A maximin mathematical model describing the process of changing the quality indicators of products manufactured by facilities of a complex production system interconnected by multiple feedbacks is considered. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the monotone growth of these indicators are found. For the proposed new technologies utilized on some of these facilities, consistency conditions with the technologies used on other facilities are determined. For finding the optimal control of this process, it is recommended to use parallel computations.     

Singular perturbation analysis of a model for the effect of toxicants in single-species systems

We consider a mathematical model for the effect of toxicant levels on a single-species ecosystem in the case where there is an initial instantaneous introduction of a toxicant into the environment. The population birthrate as well as the carrying capacity are assumed to be directly affected by the level of toxicant in the environment as it is absorbed by the population. The toxicant level in the population can be depleted at a constant specific rate, a part of which may return to the environment. Through a singular perturbation analysis, we are able to identify different dynamical behavior which may be possible to the system, including the existence of sustained oscillation in the levels of toxicant in the population and the environment.