A Structural Mapping Approach to Complex Decision-Making

Different methods currently available for multiple criteria decision analysis, such as cost-benefit analysis and utility theory, make strong axiomatic demands. The method suggested here uses multidimensional scaling techniques, as applied to the problem of constructing geographical maps from fragmentary information, to draw maps of policies involving many attributes in such a way as to throw most preferred and least preferred policies to opposite poles. The only axiomatic demand is non-transitive indifference. An analysis suggests that the method is robust against changes in the input data.     

An Approximation of a Markov Decision Process for Resource Planning

This study presents an approximation of a Markovian decision process to calculate resource planning policies for environments with probabilistic resource demand. These policies provide a means of periodic determination of the quantity of resources required to be available. Managers may also use these approximation models to perform the sensitivity analysis of resource demand and the cost/reward parameters. The decision policy can be applied to many resource planning situations including manufacturing or construction equipment purchasing or leasing, airline capacity, professional services staffing, and computer/management information systems capacity.     

A Simple Heuristic to Facilitate Course Timetabling

A common class of problem in the area of course timetabling is the scheduling of optional subjects so that each member of the class is able to attend as many as possible of his preferred options without clashes. A simple heuristic framework is described which produces near-optimal solutions very quickly. Various decision rules are tested on actual course data and the best available policies are identified.     

Reinforcement learning versus heuristics for order acceptance on a single resource

Order Acceptance (OA) is one of the main functions in business control. Accepting an order when capacity is available could disable the system to accept more profitable orders in the future with opportunity losses as a consequence. Uncertain information is also an important issue here. We use Markov decision models and learning methods from Artificial Intelligence to find decision policies under uncertainty. Reinforcement Learning (RL) is quite a new approach in OA. It is shown here that RL works well compared with heuristics. It is demonstrated that employing an RL trained agent is a robust, flexible approach that in addition can be used to support the detection of good heuristics.     

Models of multi-dimensional analysis for qualitative data and its application

Online analytical processing (OLAP) is one of the technologies that enable client applications to efficiently access data multi-dimensionally. This powerful tool helps users create new views of data, based on a rich array of ad hoc calculation functions. However, the complexity of queries required to support OLAP applications in the multi-dimensional model makes OLAP difficult to implement by simply using standard relational database technology in a static manner. Moreover, OLAP requires numerical data input. In contrast, qualitative data cannot be operated on using OLAP technique. This paper develops models of multi-dimensional analysis, based on traditional multi-dimensional techniques and OLAP techniques to analyze qualitative data dynamically. The models are able to discover the kernel knowledge from the current formulated knowledge. The proposed model is used to develop multi-dimensional algebra to facilitate operation in data warehouse.     

Multi-attribute non-expected utility

In management applications of risk theory, planning and decision making are typically concerned with complex multi-dimensional attributes of risk and utility trade-offs between them. This paper presents a novel approach to multi-attribute non-expected utility which is especially designed to serve application and risk management purposes. It is based on a recently developed non-expected utility model that accommodates systematic violations of expected utility of various kinds observed in risky choice experiments. In the model, the possible outcomes of risky decisions are assumed to be multi-dimensional, that is, classified, measured, compared and assessed from different economic and non-economic perspectives simultaneously. Of the risk attributes to be jointly evaluated in a decision problem, each is supposed to be utility independent of the complementary set of all the other attributes also considered. Mutual utility independence and additive independence are particularly pronounced forms of utility independence. An order-preserving preference functional exists if the agent??s risk preferences satisfy familiar rationality requirements. The functional provides a consistently scaled, multi-linear representation in terms of single-attribute probability-dependent utility functions. Finally, the formalism is applied to explain observed trade-offs between monetary benefits obtained, and fatalities incurred, in the operation of large-scale industrial systems.     

Cyber vulnerability maintenance policies that address the incomplete nature of inspection

In cybersecurity, incomplete inspection, resulting mainly from computers being turned off during the scan, leads to a challenge for scheduling maintenance actions. This article proposes the application of partially observable decision processes to derive cost‐effective cyber maintenance actions that minimize total costs. We consider several types of hosts having vulnerabilities at various levels of severity. The maintenance cost structure in our proposed model consists of the direct costs of maintenance actions in addition to potential incident costs associated with different security states. To assess the benefits of optimal policies obtained from partially observable Markov decision processes, we use real‐world data from a major university. Compared with alternative policies using simulations, the optimal control policies can significantly reduce expected maintenance expenditures per host and relatively quickly mitigate the most important vulnerabilities.     

An approximate algorithm for prognostic modelling using condition monitoring information

Established condition based maintenance modelling techniques can be computationally expensive. In this paper we propose an approximate methodology using extended Kalman-filtering and condition monitoring information to recursively establish a conditional probability density function for the residual life of a component. The conditional density is then used in the construction of a maintenance/replacement decision model. The advantages of the methodology, when compared with alternative approaches, are the direct use of the often multi-dimensional condition monitoring data and the on-line automation opportunity provided by the computational efficiency of the model that potentially enables the simultaneous condition monitoring and associated inference for a large number of components and monitored variables. The methodology is applied to a vibration monitoring scenario and compared with alternative models using the case data.     

A Decision support system integrating AHP and MDS to predict choice

A decision support system is proposed which uses the analytic hierarchy process along with integer programming to constrain the overall choice set. Two strategies for predicting choice are then presented. The first is a single step process which uses multi-dimensional scaling. The second strategy is an iterative process which uses both multi-dimensional scaling and the analytic hierarchy process. The latter strategy is discussed in detail and an illustrative example is provided.     

Supporting complex group decisions: A probabilistic multi-dimensional scaling approach

Groups often face complex decisions; decisions in which the decision alternatives are not clearly defined and the criteria for choosing an alternative are subject to dispute within the group. We present a Group Decision Support System that will use judgments from the group to visualize the decision problem in a probabilistic geometric space. In this geometric representation, actual decision alternatives and an ideal alternative—an artificial alternative that identifies the ideal solution to the group's decision dilemma—are portrayed as distributions in a multi-dimensional space. Dispersions of the distributions measure the uncertainties of the decision process. The psychometric theory used to develop the probabilistic geometric representation is described. Preliminary research is presented which demonstrates that geometric representations of this type help groups both to understand better the decision they face and to find better solutions.     

Evaluating policies based on their long term average cost

Many decision problems can be characterized by a set of possible states and a cost associated with each possible state transition, hi this paper we discuss how to select a policy from a set of possible policies in the long term. If the cost matrix is not available the transition matrix can be used to compare expected return times to states. In our setting the transition matrix is defined by use of linguistic terms and as a consequence, the expected return times are fuzzy. In the case where the cost matrix is available, fuzzy average costs are computed. The resulting fuzzy quantities are compared by introducing the concept of minimizing sets. Finally, we look at the case where the transition takes place from a state to a state that is known to be an element of some subset of states, but we do not know which one. We use the Dempster–Shafer theory [Shafer 1976] together with techniques of Norton [Norton 1988] and Smetz [Smetz 1976] to approximate the transition probabilities     

Network revenue management with inventory-sensitive bid prices and customer choice

We develop an approximate dynamic programming approach to network revenue management models with customer choice that approximates the value function of the Markov decision process with a non-linear function which is separable across resource inventory levels. This approximation can exhibit significantly improved accuracy compared to currently available methods. It further allows for arbitrary aggregation of inventory units and thereby reduction of computational workload, yields upper bounds on the optimal expected revenue that are provably at least as tight as those obtained from previous approaches. Computational experiments for the multinomial logit choice model with distinct consideration sets show that policies derived from our approach can outperform some recently proposed alternatives, and we demonstrate how aggregation can be used to balance solution quality and runtime.     

统计深度函数及其应用

次序统计量在一维统计数据分析中起着很重要的作用．多年来,人们一直在商维数据处理和分析中寻找“次序统计量”,却没有得到很满意的结果．由于缺少自然而有效的高维数据排序方法,因而象一维“中位数”的概念很难推广到高维．统计深度函数则提供了高维数据排序的一种工具,其主要思想是提供了一种从高维数据中心(最深点)向外的排序方法．不仅如此,统计深度函数已经在探索性高维数据分析,统计判决等方面带给我们一种全新的前景,并在工业、工程、生物医学等诸多领域得到很好的应用．本文介绍了统计深度函数概念及其应用,讨论了位置深度函数的标准,介绍了几种常用的统计深度函数．给出了由深度函数特别是由投影深度函数所诱导的位置和散布阵估计,介绍了它们的诸多优良性质,如极限分布,稳健性和有效性．由于在大多数场合下,高崩溃点的估计不是较有效的估计,而由统计深度函数所诱导的估计具有多元仿射不变性,并能提供理想的稳健性与有效性之间的平衡,本文还讨论了基于深度的统计检验和置信区域,介绍了统计深度函数的其他应用,如多元回归、带有变量误差模型、质量控制等,以及实际计算问题．指出了统计深度函数领域有关进一步的工作和研究方向．     

Platform modelling and scheduling game with multiple intelligent cloud-computing pools for big data

We develop a generic game platform that can be used to model various real-world systems with multiple intelligent cloud-computing pools and parallel-queues for resources-competing users. Inside the platform, the software structure is modelled as Blockchain. All the users are associated with Big Data arrival streams whose random dynamics is modelled by triply stochastic renewal reward processes (TSRRPs). Each user may be served simultaneously by multiple pools while each pool with parallel-servers may also serve multi-users at the same time via smart policies in the Blockchain, e.g. a Nash equilibrium point myopically at each fixed time to a game-theoretic scheduling problem. To illustrate the effectiveness of our game platform, we model the performance measures of its internal data flow dynamics (queue length and workload processes) as reflecting diffusion with regime-switchings (RDRSs) under our scheduling policies. By RDRS models, we can prove our myopic game-theoretic policy to be an asymptotic Pareto minimal-dual-cost Nash equilibrium one globally over the whole time horizon to a randomly evolving dynamic game problem. Iterative schemes for simulating our multi-dimensional RDRS models are also developed with the support of numerical comparisons.     

秘书问题研究综述：何时停止搜索信息?

秘书问题是一类序贯观察与选择问题,描述了一种动态的信息搜索与决策过程,其问题实质是决定何时停止观察选项、而不是哪一个选项被选择.已有研究成果从解决该问题的策略方法角度,可以分为最优解策略与启发式策略,二者的差异主要体现在理论依据与研究方法上.最优解策略基于决策者完全理性假设,运用数学模型论证了解决该问题的最优决策行为。但许多实证研究发现,人们往往并没有遵循最优决策行为。相比较最优解策略而言,人们通常停止搜索信息太早或者说搜索量太少。这种基于决策者有限理性假设的描述性研究,在解释人们最优选择行为偏离的基础上,提出了解决秘书问题的一些启发式策略.最后,本文通过对已有研究成果的梳理与分析,提出了进一步研究的问题与方向。     

Newton-type methods for stochastic programming

Stochastic programming is concerned with practical procedures for decision making under uncertainty, by modelling uncertainties and risks associated with decision in a form suitable for optimization. The field is developing rapidly with contributions from many disciplines such as operations research, probability and statistics, and economics. A stochastic linear program with recourse can equivalently be formulated as a convex programming problem. The problem is often large-scale as the objective function involves an expectation, either over a discrete set of scenarios or as a multi-dimensional integral. Moreover, the objective function is possibly nondifferentiable. This paper provides a brief overview of recent developments on smooth approximation techniques and Newton-type methods for solving two-stage stochastic linear programs with recourse, and parallel implementation of these methods. A simple numerical example is used to signal the potential of smoothing approaches.     

Finding the K best policies in a finite-horizon Markov decision process

Directed hypergraphs represent a general modelling and algorithmic tool, which have been successfully used in many different research areas such as artificial intelligence, database systems, fuzzy systems, propositional logic and transportation networks. However, modelling Markov decision processes using directed hypergraphs has not yet been considered.In this paper we consider finite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with finite state and action space and present an algorithm for finding the K best deterministic Markov policies. That is, we are interested in ranking the first K deterministic Markov policies in non-decreasing order using an additive criterion of optimality. The algorithm uses a directed hypergraph to model the finite-horizon MDP. It is shown that the problem of finding the optimal policy can be formulated as a minimum weight hyperpath problem and be solved in linear time, with respect to the input data representing the MDP, using different additive optimality criteria.     

Multiattribute utility analysis for policy selection and financing for the preservation of the forest

In this paper, we examine effective policies for financing and activities for the preservation of the forest on Mount Ryuoh in the city of Higashi-Hiroshima by multiattribute utility analysis. In multiattribute utility analysis, we deal with decision making problems with multiple attributes and select the most effective solution among several alternatives by deriving preference of the decision maker. Although in our decision making problem, the decision maker is a representative of a hypothetical nonprofit organization established for the preservation of the forest, the decision maker gives serious consideration to intentions of several groups of people receiving the benefit from the mountain, and then from this viewpoint, our problem can be interpreted as a group decision making problem.     

Multi-criteria auctions without full comparability of bids

The emergence of auction mechanisms that support bids characterized by several attributes is one of the most recent evolutions within auction theory. These mechanisms, referred to as multi-attribute, multiple issue or multi-dimensional auctions, are at the intersection between multi-criteria decision and auction theories. The purpose of this paper is to introduce multi-criteria auctions the originality of which is not to require full comparability between bids. We claim that this distinctive feature is of great interest, especially in procurement situations. Furthermore, the existence of potential incomparability between multi-dimensional offers will permit us to manage different bidding niches coexisting within the same bidding space. A theoretical framework based on a general preference structure will be introduced and then referenced to existing approaches such as multi-attribute auctions or new ones such as dominance based multi-criteria auctions or butterfly auctions.     

政府-企业-居民多维演化博弈下城市垃圾绿色发电的政府财政策略优化研究

城市垃圾发电技术趋于成熟,但是部分企业并没有选择绿色技术进行清洁焚烧绿色发电,引发公众抗议。针对现行财政策略对企业绿色发电行为引导的不足,建立政府-企业-居民多维演化博弈模型,分析财政决策变量对企业绿色发电行为策略的影响,提出命题并推导证明电价补贴、垃圾处理费支付、税收退税和设备采购抵税这四个财政决策变量能够有效引导企业绿色发电行为的参数值域,并基于现实数据进行Matlab仿真,分析各财政决策变量对企业绿色发电行为策略的收敛性和敏感性作用,最后提出财政策略优化建议。结果表明通过财政间接扶持方式引导企业绿色技术行为,能使电价补贴处于更低阈值,减少财政直接支出成本,不可过度依赖电价补贴,需改善垃圾处理费支付水平,丰富税收扶持手段。