我国能源-环境-经济系统的区域间建模

本研究试图探讨用“自上而下”和“自下而上”相结合的建模方法,对我国二氧化硫和二氧化碳减排进行区域间建模.本研究以一个用于分析硫税的区域间波及影响、以及评价电力部门的脱硫技术的区域间可计算一般均衡模型为基础平台;从理论上探讨了如何对该模型进行扩展和改进.首先本研究对该模型的要点进行了阐述,强调了把能源技术模型融合在区域间可计算一般均衡模型中的建模方法.然后本研究对于实行环境税和排放权交易的环境经济效果进行了比较,用成本收益法分析了工业部门对减排技术的选择,并以前述模型为基础建立了区域间模型.本研究所提出的模型可以被用来从区域统筹的观点,对我国能源-环境-经济系统的可持续发展进行预测和分析.最后本研究提出应该从更新数据、研究环境政策和技术进步之间的关系等方面,进一步发展该模型.     

ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION AND UNILATERAL CONTROL IN AN OPEN ECONOMY

In this paper we study two questions in environmental economics. First, within the context of a simple 2 × 2 × 2 static general equilibrium model, we seek to determine the conditions under which environmental policy, pursued unilaterally by a large country will make that country worse off. The empirical dimension of this question is stressed, and the key parameters which are germane to any policy discussion regarding this issue are identified. Second, we study—once again from the perspective of a large country—the possibility of using the domestic tax structure optimally to attain environmental policy objectives. Keeping the empirical dimension of the question in mind, we show how to compute optimal externality correcting taxes. We then briefly focus on the links between our stylized analytical model and the applied general equilibrium models currently being developed to study the effects of environmental policy quantitatively.     

基于CGE模型的我国西北地区民族经济政策模拟和实证研究

民族经济政策的模拟评估方法的缺失一直以来是我国民族经济政策效果有效性验证的一个短板。本文构建了基于CGE的西北地区民族经济政策评估模型,针对一般转移性支付政策进行系统模拟、政策力度对西北地区的经济要素以及当地企业产出的影响程度纵向对比分析,以及与东部沿海地区横向对比分析。本文的政策评估建模和模拟分析可以为我国西部大开发战略中一般性转移支付政策提供相应的决策支持。     

Computing equilibria in economies with incomplete markets, collateral and default penalties

This article implements an Augmented Lagrangian algorithm to compute equilibria in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and default. It is one of the first attempts to solve such a model on a large scale. Convergence is found for various economic parameters. We illustrate the effectiveness of this approach for simulating general equilibrium economies with a default.     

Revenue recycling of a CO2 tax: Results from a general equilibrium model for Switzerland

This paper combines a recent proposal by the Swiss government for a CO₂ tax with a policy that uses the tax revenues to lower the pre-existing marginal labor income tax rates, and examines the efficiency and distribution effects of such a revenue recycling policy. The investigation, based on a large-scale general equilibrium model, contrary to other studies, indicates that an environmental tax reform involves negative gross cost, that is, increases welfare even when environmental benefits are not accounted for. The simulation results further show that the adverse distributional effects of a pure CO₂ tax are neutralized or even reversed when tax revenues finance cuts of existing taxes.We thank Tom Rutherford, Reto Schleiniger and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Financial support by the Federal Agency for Energy under the SOEFF program is gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not represent the opinions of the granting agency.     

碳减排政策下多周期供应链网络均衡决策

为研究碳减排政策对多周期供应链网络均衡决策的影响,分析了供应链网络结构中各层的最优条件,建立了多周期碳减排供应链网络均衡模型.首先将其转化为等价的变分不等式问题,然后利用变分不等式的投影收缩算法进行求解.并通过模型仿真分析了在不同周期下不同碳限额、单位碳排放量对供应链网络均衡的影响结果发现企业在环境绩效和经济绩效之间存在冲突,适当的控制碳税和调整产品的单位碳排放量可以缓解这种冲突.同时,政府对于碳限额的值过于宽松,对于碳减排的实施起不到明显作用.     

中国式分权下地方政府环境规制执行研究——以排污收费为例

在中国式分权的制度背景下,以排污收费为例,对地方政府环境规制执行问题进行研究。通过建立地方政府与企业的动态博弈模型,刻画了环境规制的约束性本质特征。以此为基础,通过对政府规制利益集团理论Peltzman模型进行修正和拓展,构建了地方政府的环境规制执行均衡模型,阐述了环境规制执行均衡的形成机制。基于环境规制执行均衡模型,分析了制度因素、环境规制政策标准、治污成本和污染削减技术对地方政府环境规制执行的影响。研究结果表明,地方政府通过调节环境规制执行强度实现自身效用的最大化,从而达到环境规制执行的均衡状态。中央政府制定的更为严格的环境规制政策标准尽管在理论上能够提高企业的治污投入,但却有可能对地方政府的环境规制执行产生负面影响。降低企业治污成本能够促进地方政府严格执行环境规制,而污染削减技术创新则会在不同条件下对地方政府的环境规制执行产生不同的影响。     

Energy and Climate Policy Analysis with the Hybrid Bottom-Up Computable General Equilibrium Model SCREEN: The Case of the Swiss CO2 Act

This paper shows how bottom-up activity analyses within a dynamic computable general equilibrium framework can be undertaken for the longer-term analysis of energy and climate policies using the model SCREEN [25]. In particular we demonstrate for the case of Switzerland how the impact of policy measures to reduce the carbon intensity of the energy sector can be assessed with such a model for various socio-economic and environmental dimensions (e.g., C0₂ emissions, GDP, employment, foreign exchange rate). The results can provide valuable insights for the appropriate design of energy or climate policies that allow for the targeted fostering of a more sustainable energy development.     

碳排放税收政策下供应链网络成员企业行为研究

针对三种碳税决策框架:分权碳税框架、集权碳税框架——固定阀值、集权碳税框架——弹性阀值,分别分析三种碳排放税收政策决策框架下供应链网络中成员企业收益的变化以及各企业间的交互行为,给出了各成员企业的均衡条件,并将其转化为变分不等式问题,建立碳排放税收政策下供应链网络成员企业博弈模型,并提出基于欧拉算法的模型求解方法。最后结合算例分析碳排放税收政策下供应链网络成员企业关于生产决策、分销决策、碳排放量的反应,研究为达到预期的环境目标,政府相关部门如何调整单位碳排放税,同时,根据成员企业相关经济指标的均衡结果,政府相关部门又如何调整碳排放的环境目标。     

相异成本和广义非线性需求下多寡头古诺模型及应用

在已有的寡头古诺模型基础上进一步扩展,建立了综合考虑竞争者成本差异和市场广义非线性需求的扩展多寡头古诺模型。给出了扩展多寡头古诺模型Nash均衡解的一般求解方法以及两类特殊需求函数下Nash均衡解的解析表达式。接着进一步探讨了模型的性质,重点讨论成本差异对均衡的影响及其与经典模型的异同,并利用模型的结论简单解释若干经济现象。模型性质探讨表明,边际成本差异会对均衡产量及其在各类寡头之间的分配产生重要影响。作为应用,将相关结论应用到以稀土开采管理为代表的稀有资源管理的策略分析上,提出了若干建议。     

含公共开支的R&D经济增长模型

本文讨论了含公共开支的经济增长模型,避免了对生产函数的不恰当的假设,生产函数的形式是很一般的,因此经济系统是复杂的,但通过精巧的数学方法,得到确定的均衡点,并且给出解为正的充分条件.最后,分析了系统的动态性质,给出了经济沿稳定流形收敛于均衡点的条件.     

个体投资治理污染的随机增长模型

本文研究了个体投资治理污染的随机增长模型.利用随机最优化的方法,得出了随机扰动、个体环保投资及环保技术对福利和经济增长的影响.对我国制定环保政策具有一定的积极作用.     

含公共开支的R&D经济增长模型(英文)

本文讨论了含公共开支的经济增长模型 ,避免了对生产函数的不恰当的假设 ,生产函数的形式是很一般的 ,因此经济系统是复杂的 ,但通过精巧的数学方法 ,得到确定的均衡点 ,并且给出解为正的充分条件。最后 ,分析了系统的动态性质 ,给出了经济沿稳定流形收敛于均衡点的条件     

General financial equilibrium with policy interventions: a variational inequality approach

In this paper a model of general financial equilibrium with policy interventions is introduced, which yields the optimal composition of assets and liabilities in each sector's portfolio, as well as the market prices for each instrument. The policy interventions considered are taxes and price ceilings. The variational inequality formulation of the equilibrium conditions is derived and then utilized to establish existence and uniqueness properties of the solution pattern. An algorithm is proposed for the computation of the problem. Finally, the algorithm is applied to some special utility functions as numerical examples.     

基于变分不等式的生态工业链网络均衡问题研究

以变分不等式为基础提出生态工业链网络均衡模型。生态工业链是通过仿照自然生态系统中的物质循环方式与生物群体之间的竞争与共生模式,使不同企业之间形成共享资源和互换副产品从而实现园区各企业经济与环境效益的最大化。针对生态工业链网络的多产品(主副产品和废弃物)多层次的网络结构,模仿自然生态系统中的生产者、消费者和分解者,分别对各层决策者的独立优化决策行为及其相互作用进行分析,利用变分不等式分析各层均衡条件进而构建生态工业链网络均衡模型,得到系统达到均衡的条件并给出相应的经济解释。在证明系统变分不等式的解存在的基础上,通过数值算例验证模型的合理性与有效性。     

ON OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL TAXATION AND ENFORCEMENT: INFORMATION,MONITORING AND EFFICIENCY

ABSTRACT. The purpose of the paper is to contribute to the narrowing of the distance between formal theory and practical environmental policy design. We formulate a general and comprehensive theoretical model in order to take into account the different informational and technological problems which characterize the definition and implementation of environmental taxes in a second best world where there also are distortionary taxes. Having formalized these problems, we present a general model which allows us to discuss the existence of efficient and implementable environmental quality objectives and policy instruments, and to analyze many particular cases.     

POLLUTION, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, TAXES AND STOCHASTIC GROWTH

This paper studies a stochastic endogenous growth model with pollution. It introduces government expenditure and exogenous pollution abatement technology to eliminate pollution and proves that under appropriate equilibrium conditions the main economic indexes （including economic growth rate, the optimal government expenditure rate） in the centrally planned economy and decentralized economy can be expressed by the parameters of the model uniquely. The optimal tax policy is analyzed ,and the optimal pollution is derived.     

Initial basis for a national planning model

Analysis of pending national policy takes on greater importance each day to supply policy makers with much needed data on the overall economic effect such policies will have on total employment, income, output, tax revenues, and the general price level throughout the economy. This short paper examines the potential for integration of existing modeling technology into a meaningful national planning model to provide a sound set of economic indices leading to enhanced market efficiency and resource use. Initial efforts at integrated modeling and analysis are described, together with indications of their levels of success in replicating the existing economic environment. Emphasis is placed on determination of shadow prices in a growing economy and their incorporation into the systematic development of a national planning model.     

MEASURING THE COSTS OF REALLOCATING WATER FROM AGRICULTURE: A MULTI‐MODEL APPROACH

ABSTRACT. Increasing demand for water by environmental interests, coupled with the diminishing prospects for constructing new water diversion projects, is forcing farmers in the western United States to cope with reduced surface water deliveries. The cost of improving instream water quality by reducing agricultural diversions is shown to depend mainly on how the supply reductions are allocated among users and on the extent of water trading. A central contribution of this paper is a methodology for measuring the impacts of water supply policy reforms on irrigated agriculture. The paper nests three empirical models in a general conceptual framework. The models differ in terms of their degree of detail and assumptions about input substitution. By comparing model results, it is possible to place bounds on the consequences of policy changes, and to identify critical factors determining economic impacts. The models are applied to the problem of improving water quality in the San Francisco Bay/Delta estuary.     

HARVESTING AN AGE‐STRUCTURED POPULATION AS BIOMASS: DOES IT WORK?

Abstract The economics of fisheries is based heavily on describing fish populations by the surplus production model. Both economists and ecologists have different opinions on whether this approach provides an adequate biological basis for economic analysis. This study takes an age‐structured population model and shows how, under equilibrium conditions, it determines the surplus production model. The surplus production model is then used to solve an optimal feedback policy for a generic optimal harvesting problem. Next, it is assumed that the fishery manager applies this feedback policy even though the fish population actually evolves according to the age‐structured model. This framework is applied to the widow rockfish, Atlantic menhaden, and Pacific halibut fisheries. Population age‐structure contains information on future harvest possibilities. The surplus production model neglects this information and may lead to major deviations between the expected and actual outcomes especially under multiple steady states and nonlinearities.