Macroscopic modeling and simulations of room evacuation

We analyze numerically two macroscopic models of crowd dynamics: the classical Hughes model and the second order model being an extension to pedestrian motion of the Payne–Whitham vehicular traffic model. The desired direction of motion is determined by solving an eikonal equation with density dependent running cost, which results in minimization of the travel time and avoidance of congested areas. We apply a mixed finite volume-finite element method to solve the problems and present error analysis for the eikonal solver, gradient computation and the second order model yielding a first order convergence. We show that Hughes’ model is incapable of reproducing complex crowd dynamics such as stop-and-go waves and clogging at bottlenecks. Finally, using the second order model, we study numerically the evacuation of pedestrians from a room through a narrow exit.     

Dynamic navigation field in the social force model for pedestrian evacuation

This paper presents a generalized walking cost distribution to determine a dynamic navigation field in the social force model for pedestrian evacuation. The local walking cost per unit distance of movement includes the cost associated with travel time and other additional costs incurred by pedestrians to avoid colliding with obstacles in a dynamic environment. In the dynamic navigation field, pedestrians expect to choose an optimal path with the lowest walking cost to reach their target destination reactively based on available instantaneous information. The social force model with the dynamic navigation field is validated by comparing the simulation results with empirical observations. The fundamental diagrams for observations and simulation data agree well, which indicates the effectiveness of the model. Numerical results show that the model with the dynamic navigation field can reproduce typical stages of the dynamics of pedestrian evacuation, such as self-organized arching and queuing phenomena, and can capture the route choice and exit choice behaviors of pedestrians during the evacuation process. Compared to the model with the static navigation field, the model with the dynamic navigation field can reduce the total evacuation time of the room and save the required CPU time for a large group of pedestrians. Furthermore, the strong tendency to avoid local high-density regions (i.e., minimizing collisions) can also reduce the total evacuation time under the same conditions.     

烟羽应急计划区公众撤离模式研究

公众撤离是烟羽应急计划区应急响应状态下的重要安全措施。本文提出一种“政府组织撤离+政府指导下的自行撤离”的撤离模式, 并基于元胞传输理论, 以最小化撤离时间为目标, 建立了公众撤离模型, 规划车辆行驶路线。运用该模型, 分析撤离时间随政府组织撤离和居民自行撤离比例变化的规律, 并运用到两个案例中, 结果显示:“政府组织撤离+政府指导下的自行撤离”模式的撤离时间小于“政府组织撤离”模式的撤离时间, 而且政府组织撤离与自行撤离之间存在一个最佳的比例结构, 使撤离时间达到相对低的水平。 关键词:烟羽应急计划区;公众撤离;元胞传输理论;模式研究;应急管理     

The warehouse-inventory-transportation problem for supply chains

Warehouses play a vital role in mitigating variations in supply and demand, and in providing value-added services in a supply chain. However, our observation of supply chain practice reveals that warehousing decisions are not included when developing a distribution plan for the supply chain. This lack of integration has resulted in a substantial variation in workload (42–220%) at our industry partner’s warehouse costing them millions of dollars. To address this real-world challenge, we introduce the warehouse-inventory-transportation problem (WITP) of determining an optimal distribution plan from vendors to customers via one or more warehouses in order to minimize the total distribution cost. We present a nonlinear integer programming model for the WITP considering supply chains with multiple vendors, stores, products, and time-periods, and one warehouse. The model also considers worker congestion at the warehouse that could affect worker productivity. A heuristic based on iterative local search is developed to solve industry-sized problems with up to 500 stores and 1000 products. Our experiments indicate that the distribution plans obtained via the WITP, as compared to a sequential approach, result in a substantial reduction in workload variance at the warehouse, while considerably reducing the total distribution cost. These plans, however, are sensitive to aisle configuration and technology at the warehouse, and the level and productivity of temporary workers.     

A Hybrid Taguchi–Immune approach to optimize an integrated supply chain design problem with multiple shipping

Supply chain network design is considered a strategic decision level problem that provides an optimal platform for the effective and efficient supply chain management. In this research, we have mathematically modeled an integrated supply chain design. To ensure high customer service levels, we propose the inclusion of multiple shipping/transportation options and distributed customer demands with fixed lead times into the supply chain distribution framework and formulated an integer-programming model for the five-tier supply chain design problem considered. The problem has been made additionally complex by including realistic assumptions of nonlinear transportation and inventory holding costs and the presence of economies of scale. In the light of aforementioned facts, this research proposes a novel solution methodology that amalgamates the features of Taguchi technique with Artificial Immune System (AIS) for the optimum or near optimum resolution of the problem at hand. The performance of the proposed solution methodology has been benchmarked against a set of test instances and the obtained results are compared against those obtained by Genetic Algorithm (GA), Hybrid Taguchi–Genetic Algorithm (HTGA) and AIS. Simulation results indicate that the proposed approach can not only search for optimal/near optimal solutions in large search spaces but also has good repeatability and convergence characteristics, thereby proving its superiority.     

Integrating simulation modelling and GIS: spatial decision support systems for evacuation planning

A prototype spatial decision support system (SDSS) has been designed for contingency planning for emergency evacuations which combines simulation techniques with spatial data handling and display capabilities of a geographical information system (GIS). It links together the topographical support and analysis provided by the GIS–ARC/INFO, with a simulation model designed to simulate the dynamics of an evacuation process in detail. Our aim has been to design a SDSS so that it provides an interactive evacuation simulator with dynamic graphics that allows for experimentation with policies by providing rapid feedback from the simulation. The idea is that emergency planners will be able to use the SDSS to experiment with emergency evacuation plans in order to plan for different contingencies. This paper concentrates on the issues involved in designing an effective integration link interface between the GIS and the simulation model when building a SDSS of this type.     

Particle methods for multi-group pedestrian flow

We consider a multi-group microscopic model for pedestrian flow describing the behaviour of large groups. It is based on an interacting particle system coupled to an eikonal equation. Hydrodynamic multi-group models are derived from the underlying particle system as well as scalar multi-group models. The eikonal equation is used to compute optimal paths for the pedestrians. Particle methods are used to solve the equations on all levels of the hierarchy. Numerical test cases are investigated and the models and, in particular, the resulting evacuation times are compared for a wide range of different parameters.     

An Expert System Framework for Economic Evaluation of Machining Operation Planning

Recognising the importance of combining manufacturing and management systems for machining operation planning, this paper presents a new methodology for the evaluation of economic aspects in an operation plan. To ensure that the quality of machined parts satisfies the required specifications, the manufacturing system acts as an alternative generator that provides meaningful and practical plans. Through cost analysis, the variable, fixed, and total costs associated with the machining operation are quantitatively determined. The management system, which functions as an evaluation mechanism, then selects the optimal plan based on the defined goal. The proposed methodology has been applied in the framework design of an expert system. The program establishes a sequence of machining operation planning and searches for the optimal plan. This optimal plan integrates considerations from both managers and production engineers, and balances their needs for efficient machining of a quality product.     

Existence and uniqueness of an optimum in the infinite-horizon portfolio-cum-saving model with semimartingale investments

The model considered here is essentially that formulated in the author's previous paper Conditions for Optimality in the Infinite-Horizon Portfolio-cum-Saving Problem with Semimartingale Investments, Stochastics and Stochastics Reports 29 (1990), 133-171. In this model, the vector process representing returns to investments is a general semimartingale. Processes defining portfolio plans arc here required only to be predictable and non-negative. Existence of an optimal portfolio-cum-saving plan is proved under slight conditions of integrability imposed on the welfare functional; the proofs rely on properties of weak precompactness of portfolio and utility sequences in suitable L _p spaces together with dominated and monotone convergence arguments. Conditions are also obtained for the uniqueness of the portfolio plan generating a given returns process (i.e. for the uniqueness of the integrands generating a given sum of semimartingale integrals) and for the uniqueness of an optimal plan; here use is made of random measures associated with the jumps of a semimartingale     

A note on optimal foldover four-level factorials

The foldover is a quick and useful technique in construction of fractional factorial designs, which typically releases aliased factors or interactions. The issue of employing the uniformity criterion measured by the centered L ₂-discrepancy to assess the optimal foldover plans was studied for four-level design. A new analytical expression and a new lower bound of the centered L ₂-discrepancy for fourlevel combined design under a general foldover plan are respectively obtained. A necessary condition for the existence of an optimal foldover plan meeting this lower bound was described. An algorithm for searching the optimal four-level foldover plans is also developed. Illustrative examples are provided, where numerical studies lend further support to our theoretical results. These results may help to provide some powerful and efficient algorithms for searching the optimal four-level foldover plans.     

Non-causal models in long term planning via set contractive optimal control methods

The notion of consistency for optimal plans introduced in [F.E. Kydland, E.C. Prescott, Rules rather than decisions: The inconsistency of optimal plans, J. Polit. Econ. 85 (3) (1977) 473–491] is studied in relation to dynamic programming and to multi-objective optimal control. It is demonstrated that the consistency condition for an optimal sequence of n policies for periods from 1 to n corresponding to a sequence of n economic agents’ decisions that together constitute an optimal plan for an agreed-upon social objective function is equivalent to a multi-objective problem with n+1 criteria. An optimal plan is consistent if and only if the corresponding (n+1)-criteria problem is balanced, and consistent optimal plans do exist in such economic situations. Otherwise, the consistency requirement generates the balance set and a set of Pareto solutions, and both can be computed as illustrated in the inflation–unemployment example extended for two periods with three objectives to optimize. The procedure of “consistent planning for the infinite horizon” considered in [F.E. Kydland, E.C. Prescott, Rules rather than decisions: The inconsistency of optimal plans, J. Polit. Econ. 85 (3) (1977) 473–491] is shown to concur with Bellman’s principle of optimality that may be invalid in many practical cases including the case considered in [F.E. Kydland, E.C. Prescott, Rules rather than decisions: The inconsistency of optimal plans, J. Polit. Econ. 85 (3) (1977) 473–491]. Finitely causal and non-causal models are introduced for long term planning in a multi-objective (Pareto) framework, and it is demonstrated how to deal with non-causal models using new set-contractive methods for multi-objective global optimization. The results are illustrated by examples.     

Inexact de Novo programming for water resources systems planning

This study presents an interval de Novo programming (IDNP) approach for the design of optimal water-resources-management systems under uncertainty. The model is derived by incorporating the existing interval programming and de Novo programming, allowing uncertainties represented as intervals within the optimization framework. The developed IDNP approach has the advantages in constructing optimal system design via an ideal system by introducing the flexibility toward the available resources in the system constraints. A simple numerical example is introduced to illustrate the IDNP approach. The IDNP is then applied to design an inexact optimal system with budget limit instead of finding the optimum in a given system with fixed resources in a water resources planning case. The results demonstrate that the developed method efficiently produces stable solutions under different objectives. Optimal supplies of good-quality water are obtained in considering different revenue targets of municipal–industrial–agricultural competition under a given budget.     

Optimum step-stress accelerated degradation test for Wiener degradation process under constraints

To assess a product's reliability for subsequent managerial decisions such as designing an extended warranty policy and developing a maintenance schedule, Accelerated Degradation Test (ADT) has been used to obtain reliability information in a timely manner. In particular, Step-Stress ADT (SSADT) is one of the most commonly used stress loadings for shortening test duration and reducing the required sample size. Although it was demonstrated in many previous studies that the optimum SSADT plan is actually a simple SSADT plan using only two stress levels, most of these results were obtained numerically on a case-by-case basis. In this paper, we formally prove that, under the Wiener degradation model with a drift parameter being a linear function of the (transformed) stress level, a multi-level SSADT plan will degenerate to a simple SSADT plan under many commonly used optimization criteria and some practical constraints. We also show that, under our model assumptions, any SSADT plan with more than two distinct stress levels cannot be optimal. These results are useful for searching for an optimum SSADT plan, since one needs to focus only on simple SSADTs. A numerical example is presented to compare the efficiency of the proposed optimum simple SSADT plans and a SSADT plan proposed by a previous study. In addition, a simulation study is conducted for investigating the efficiency of the proposed SSADT plans when the sample size is small.     

Evacuation planning using multiobjective evolutionary optimization approach

In an emergency situation, evacuation is conducted in order to displace people from a dangerous place to a safer place, and it usually needs to be done in a hurry. It is necessary to prepare evacuation plans in order to have a good response in an emergency situation. A central challenge in developing an evacuation plan is in determining the distribution of evacuees into the safe areas, that is, deciding where and from which road each evacuee should go. To achieve this aim, several objective functions should be brought into consideration and need to be satisfied simultaneously, though these objective functions may often conflict with each other.     

Bayesian optimal life‐testing plan under the balanced two sample type‐II progressive censoring scheme

Joint progressive censoring schemes are quite useful to conduct comparative life‐testing experiment of different competing products. Recently, Mondal and Kundu (“A New Two Sample Type‐II Progressive Censoring Scheme,” Commun Stat‐Theory Methods; 2018) introduced a joint progressive censoring scheme on two samples known as the balanced joint progressive censoring (BJPC) scheme. Optimal planning of such progressive censoring scheme is an important issue to the experimenter. This article considers optimal life‐testing plan under the BJPC scheme using the Bayesian precision and D‐optimality criteria, assuming that the lifetimes follow Weibull distribution. In order to obtain the optimal BJPC life‐testing plans, one needs to carry out an exhaustive search within the set of all admissible plans under the BJPC scheme. However, for large sample size, determination of the optimal life‐testing plan is difficult by exhaustive search technique. A metaheuristic algorithm based on the variable neighborhood search method is employed for computation of the optimal life‐testing plan. Optimal plans are provided under different scenarios. The optimal plans depend upon the values of the hyperparameters of the prior distribution. The effect of different prior information on optimal scheme is studied.     

Non-local first-order modelling of crowd dynamics: A multidimensional framework with applications

In this work a physical modelling framework is presented, describing the intelligent, non-local, and anisotropic behaviour of pedestrians. Its phenomenological basics and constitutive elements are detailed, and a qualitative analysis is provided. Within this common framework, two first-order mathematical models, along with related numerical solution techniques, are derived. The models are oriented to specific real world applications: a one-dimensional model of crowd–structure interaction in footbridges and a two-dimensional model of pedestrian flow in an underground station with several obstacles and exits. The noticeable heterogeneity of the applications demonstrates the significance of the physical framework and its versatility in addressing different engineering problems. The results of the simulations point out the key role played by the physiological and psychological features of human perception on the overall crowd dynamics.     

Embedding evolutionary strategy in ordinal optimization for hard optimization problems

This work proposes a method for embedding evolutionary strategy (ES) in ordinal optimization (OO), abbreviated as ESOO, for solving real-time hard optimization problems with time-consuming evaluation of the objective function and a huge discrete solution space. Firstly, an approximate model that is based on a radial basis function (RBF) network is utilized to evaluate approximately the objective value of a solution. Secondly, ES associated with the approximate model is applied to generate a representative subset from a huge discrete solution space. Finally, the optimal computing budget allocation (OCBA) technique is adopted to select the best solution in the representative subset as the obtained “good enough” solution. The proposed method is applied to a hotel booking limits (HBL) problem, which is formulated as a stochastic combinatorial optimization problem with a huge discrete solution space. The good enough booking limits, obtained by the proposed method, have promising solution quality, and the computational efficiency of the method makes it suitable for real-time applications. To demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed method and the quality of the obtained solution, it is compared with two competing methods – the canonical ES and the genetic algorithm (GA). Test results demonstrate that the proposed approach greatly outperforms the canonical ES and GA.     

Estimation and Design of Sampling Plans for Monitoring Dependent Production Processes

We consider the problem of designing single and the double sampling plans for monitoring dependent production processes. Based on simulated samples from the process, Nelson proposed a new approach of estimating the characteristics of single sampling plans and, using these estimates, designing optimal plans. In this paper, we extend his approach to the design of optimal double sampling plans. We first propose a simple methodology for obtaining the unbiased estimators of various characteristics of single and double sampling plans. This is achieved by defining the various characteristics of sampling plans as explicit random variables. Some of the important properties of the double sampling plans are established. Using these results, an efficient algorithm is developed to obtain optimal double sampling plans. A comparison with a crude search shows that our algorithm leads to about 90% savings, on the average, in computational timings. The procedure is also explained through a suitable example for the ARMA(1,1) model. It is observed, for instance, that an optimal double sampling plan leads to about 23% reduction in average sample number, compared to an optimal single sampling plan. Tables for choosing the optimal plans for certain auto regressive moving average processes at some practically useful values of acceptable quality level and rejectable quality level are also presented.     

A Fokker–Planck control framework for multidimensional stochastic processes

An efficient framework for the optimal control of probability density functions (PDFs) of multidimensional stochastic processes is presented. This framework is based on the Fokker–Planck equation that governs the time evolution of the PDF of stochastic processes and on tracking objectives of terminal configuration of the desired PDF. The corresponding optimization problems are formulated as a sequence of open-loop optimality systems in a receding-horizon control strategy. Many theoretical results concerning the forward and the optimal control problem are provided. In particular, it is shown that under appropriate assumptions the open-loop bilinear control function is unique. The resulting optimality system is discretized by the Chang–Cooper scheme that guarantees positivity of the forward solution. The effectiveness of the proposed computational framework is validated with a stochastic Lotka–Volterra model and a noised limit cycle model.     

Precommitment and equilibrium investment strategies for defined contribution pension plans under a jump–diffusion model

In this paper, we study an optimal investment problem under the mean–variance criterion for defined contribution pension plans during the accumulation phase. To protect the rights of a plan member who dies before retirement, a clause on the return of premiums for the plan member is adopted. We assume that the manager of the pension plan is allowed to invest the premiums in a financial market, which consists of one risk-free asset and one risky asset whose price process is modeled by a jump–diffusion process. The precommitment strategy and the corresponding value function are obtained using the stochastic dynamic programming approach. Under the framework of game theory and the assumption that the manager’s risk aversion coefficient depends on the current wealth, the equilibrium strategy and the corresponding equilibrium value function are also derived. Our results show that with the same level of variance in the terminal wealth, the expected optimal terminal wealth under the precommitment strategy is greater than that under the equilibrium strategy with a constant risk aversion coefficient; the equilibrium strategy with a constant risk aversion coefficient is revealed to be different from that with a state-dependent risk aversion coefficient; and our results can also be degenerated to the results of He and Liang (2013b) and Björk et al. (2014). Finally, some numerical simulations are provided to illustrate our derived results.