Financial networks with intermediation: Risk management with variable weights

In this paper, we develop a framework for the modeling, analysis, and computation of solutions to multitiered financial network problems with intermediaries in which both the sources of financial funds as well as the intermediaries are multicriteria decision-makers. In particular, we assume that these decision-makers seek not only to maximize their net revenues but also to minimize risk with the risk being penalized by a variable weight. We make explicit the behavior of the various decision-makers, including the consumers at the demand markets for the financial products. We derive the optimality conditions, and demonstrate that the governing equilibrium conditions of the financial network economy can be formulated as a finite-dimensional variational inequality problem. Qualitative properties of the equilibrium financial flow and price pattern are provided. A computational procedure that exploits the network structure of the problem is proposed and then applied to several numerical examples.     

International financial networks with intermediation: modeling,analysis, and computations

In this paper, we develop a framework for the modeling, analysis, and computation of solutions to international financial networks with intermediation. We consider three tiers of decision-makers consisting of: source agents in different countries, financial intermediaries, and consumers associated with the demand markets for different products in distinct currencies and countries. We model the behavior of the decision-makers, derive the equilibrium conditions, and establish the variational inequality formulation. We then utilize the variational inequality formulation to obtain qualitative properties of the equilibrium financial flow and price pattern as well as to propose an algorithm along with convergence results. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate both the model and the computational procedure. This research extends the recent results surrounding the modeling of financial networks with intermediation to the international dimension.Revised: January 2003, AMS Classification: 90, 91     

Supply chain networks,electronic commerce,and supply side and demand side risk

In this paper, we develop a supply chain network model in which both physical and electronic transactions are allowed and in which supply side risk as well as demand side risk are included in the formulation. The model consists of three tiers of decision-makers: the manufacturers, the distributors, and the retailers, with the demands associated with the retail outlets being random. We model the optimizing behavior of the various decision-makers, with the manufacturers and the distributors being multicriteria decision-makers and concerned with both profit maximization and risk minimization. We derive the equilibrium conditions and establish the finite-dimensional variational inequality formulation. We provide qualitative properties of the equilibrium pattern in terms of existence and uniqueness results and also establish conditions under which the proposed computational procedure is guaranteed to converge. We illustrate the supply chain network model through several numerical examples for which the equilibrium prices and product shipments are computed. This is the first multitiered supply chain network equilibrium model with electronic commerce and with supply side and demand side risk for which modeling, qualitative analysis, and computational results have been obtained.     

Multitiered Supply Chain Networks: Multicriteria Decision—Making Under Uncertainty

In this paper, we present a supply chain network model with multiple tiers of decision-makers, consisting, respectively, of manufacturers, distributors, and retailers, who can compete within a tier but may cooperate between tiers. We consider multicriteria decision-making for both the manufacturers and the distributors whereas the retailers are subject to decision-making under uncertainty since the demands associated with the product are random. We derive the optimality conditions for the decision-makers, establish the equilibrium conditions, and derive the variational inequality formulation. We then utilize the variational inequality formulation to provide both qualitative properties of the equilibrium product shipment, service level, and price pattern and to propose a computational procedure, along with convergence results. This is the first supply chain network model to capture both multicriteria decision-making and decision-making under uncertainty in an integrated equilibrium framework.     

A supply chain network equilibrium model with random demands

In this paper, we develop a supply chain network model consisting of manufacturers and retailers in which the demands associated with the retail outlets are random. We model the optimizing behavior of the various decision-makers, derive the equilibrium conditions, and establish the finite-dimensional variational inequality formulation. We provide qualitative properties of the equilibrium pattern in terms of existence and uniqueness results and also establish conditions under which the proposed computational procedure is guaranteed to converge. Finally, we illustrate the model through several numerical examples for which the equilibrium prices and product shipments are computed. This is the first supply chain network equilibrium model with random demands for which modeling, qualitative analysis, and computational results have been obtained.     

Financial contagion: extending the exposures network of the Mexican financial system

Direct contagion has been widely studied in recent years and little evidence has been found to be relevant to the study of systemic risk. However, we argue that this limited contagion effect might be associated with a lack of relevant data. A common assumption for the estimation of the matrices of exposures is to apply the maximum entropy principle to deal with data gaps; such an assumption might lead to an underestimation of contagion risk. In this paper, there are no data gaps and the information set is extended from interbank exposures alone to exposures among most of the financial intermediaries in the Mexican financial system (we even include exposures to some international foreign banks). Naturally, the contagion risk of an extended network of exposures changes with respect to the interbank exposures network, as there are many more institutions which can be the source of contagion and there are more institutions which can fail due to contagion. The most important contribution of this paper is that it provides evidence on financial contagion with an extended exposures network under stressful conditions. The results presented here support the international efforts by the Bank for International Settlements, the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Board to increase the amount of information available which can be used to assess systemic risk and contagion based on exposures and funding data.     

基于竞争的网络组织间知识转移的均衡模型研究

本文针对网络组织中知识在组织间转移的行为和问题进行研究。许多文献从网络组织整体的角度阐述和论证了网络组织中知识转移的数量和效率对于网络组织的整体绩效成正比例关系,但是,在网络组织中个体企业之间存在着合作与竞争,知识转移的过程也是一个合作与竞争的过程,个体企业追求的是个体最优化的状态。本文在个体目标最优化的基础上,考虑到知识转移的交易与非交易方式,知识转移的风险性,对组织中个体企业间关系的影响,以及知识的转化率,构建了个体企业基于利润、知识转移风险、组织间关系价值、知识转移费用和知识的吸收转化价值的多目标决策模型;并且,运用变分不等式理论与修正投影方法,得到个体最优化状态下的网络组织知识转移的均衡状态;最后,通过算例证明了模型和结果的合理性。     

Supply chain network equilibrium with strategic financial hedging using futures

In this paper, we develop a network equilibrium model for supply chain networks with strategic financial hedging. We consider multiple competing firms that purchase multiple materials and parts to manufacture their products. The supply chain firms’ procurement activities are exposed to commodity price risk and exchange rate risk. The firms can use futures contracts to hedge the risks. Our research studies the equilibrium of the entire network where each firm optimizes its own operation and hedging decisions. We use variational inequality theory to formulate the equilibrium model, and provide qualitative properties. We provide analytical results for a special case with duopolistic competition, and use simulations to study an oligopolistic case. The analytical and simulation studies reveals interesting managerial insights.     

Are purchase-triggered donations advantageous with competition?

Introducing social responsibility in product development and promotional strategies can affect the cost and demand of a firm’s product, as well as the social impact. We explore whether a firm should employ a purchase-triggered donations (PTD) strategy by proposing an analytical model in which a profit-maximizing firm decides on the product price and its donation amount to the society. Two dimensions of consumer behavior are considered – price and social concern. We identify two common forms of socially responsible action: profit-maximizing ethics, through which socially responsible behavior can actually improve firm profitability, and costly philanthropy, whereby firms engage in socially responsible behavior for their ethical and social values, even if their profitability is consequently reduced. We develop managerial insights by characterizing and exploring the optimal and equilibrium solutions. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our analysis shows that both monopolistic and duopolistic firms prefer not to engage in socially responsible behavior through PTD. On the other hand, if an upper limit is applied on the PTD amount, then competing firms may find themselves in equilibrium with either profit-maximizing ethics or costly philanthropy. In this sense, we conclude that PTD-based corporate social responsibility behavior is best described as a competitive necessity for firms engaged in competition.     

Optimality of the threshold dividend strategy for the compound Poisson model

In this paper, we consider the optimal dividend problem for the compound Poisson risk model. We assume that dividends are paid to the shareholders according to an admissible strategy with dividend rate bounded by a constant. Our objective is to find a dividend policy so as to maximize the expected discounted value of dividends until ruin. We give sufficient conditions under which the optimal strategy is of threshold type.     

Estimation of asset demands by heterogeneous agents

We develop optimization models to analyze the demand for financial assets by heterogeneous agents. The models extend Frankel's [J. Portfolio Manage. 11 (4) (1985) 18] earlier approach, and relax the assumption of normality of asset returns. Instead, we assume that investors maximize an expected utility of terminal wealth based on heterogeneous attitudes toward risk. Solving a bi-level optimization program, we endogenously estimate the risk aversion parameters and derive the optimal asset holdings for each agent. The models are tested on United States market data, explaining the market structure better than previously postulated models.     

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??In this paper, we investigate a robust optimal portfolio and reinsurance problem under inflation risk for an ambiguity-averse insurer (AAI), who worries about uncertainty in model parameters. We assume that the AAI is allowed to purchase proportional reinsurance and invest his/her wealth in a financial market which consists of a risk-free asset and a risky asset. The objective of the AAI is to maximize the minimal expected power utility of terminal wealth. By using techniques of stochastic control theory, closed-form expressions for the value function and optimal strategies are obtained.     

Supply chain network sustainability under competition and frequencies of activities from production to distribution

In this paper, we develop a competitive supply chain network model with multiple firms, each of which produces a differentiated product by brand and weights the emissions that it generates through its supply chain network activities in an individual way. The supply chain network activities of production, transport and distribution, and storage have associated with them distinct capacities and the firms seek to determine their optimal product flows and frequencies of operation so that their utilities are maximized where the utilities consist of profits and weighted emissions. Multiple production, storage, and transport mode options are allowed. The governing equilibrium concept is that of Cournot–Nash equilibrium. We provide both path and link flow variational inequality formulations of the equilibrium conditions and then propose an algorithm, which, at each iteration, yields closed form expressions for the underlying variables. Numerical examples illustrate the generality of the model and the information provided to managerial decision-makers and policy-makers. This paper adds to the growing literature on sustainable supply chains through the development of a computable general competitive supply chain network game theory model, which brings a greater realism to the evaluation of profit and emission trade-offs through the incorporation of frequencies.     

Financial Networks with Intermediation and Transportation Network Equilibria: A Supernetwork Equivalence and Reinterpretation of the Equilibrium Conditions with Computations

In this paper, we consider two distinct classes of network problems – financial networks with intermediation and with electronic transactions and transportation network equilibrium problems, which have been modeled and studied independently. We then prove that the former problem can be reformulated as the latter problem through an appropriately constructed abstract network i.e., a supernetwork. The established equivalence allows one to then transfer the methodological tools, in particular, algorithms, that have been developed for transportation network equilibria to the financial network domain. In addition, this connection provides us with a novel interpretation of the financial network equilibrium conditions in terms of paths and path flows and a direct existence result. We further show how the theoretical results obtained in this paper can be exploited computationally through several numerical examples.      

On optimal proportional reinsurance and investment in a hidden Markov financial market

This paper investigates the optimal reinsurance and investment in a hidden Markov financial market consisting of non-risky (bond) and risky (stock) asset. We assume that only the price of the risky asset can be observed from the financial market. Suppose that the insurance company can adopt proportional reinsurance and investment in the hidden Markov financial market to reduce risk or increase profit. Our objective is to maximize the expected exponential utility of the terminal wealth of the surplus of the insurance company. By using the filtering theory, we establish the separation principle and reduce the problem to the complete information case. With the help of Girsanov change of measure and the dynamic programming approach, we characterize the value function as the unique solution of a linear parabolic partial differential equation and obtain the Feynman-Kac representation of the value function.     

多商品流电子商务供应链网络模型

针对多商品流三层供应链网络模型,将电子商务整合到多商品流供应链网络中,导出了每层网络代理商或决策者的最优性条件,给出了问题的变分不等式形式,得到了系统达到均衡的条件,给出了具体算例并进行了求解.     

On securitization,market completion and equilibrium risk transfer

We propose an equilibrium framework within which to price financial securities written on non-tradable underlyings such as temperature indices. We analyze a financial market with a finite set of agents whose preferences are described by a convex dynamic risk measure generated by the solution of a backward stochastic differential equation. The agents are exposed to financial and non-financial risk factors. They can hedge their financial risk in the stock market and trade a structured derivative whose payoff depends on both financial and external risk factors. We prove an existence and uniqueness of equilibrium result for derivative prices and characterize the equilibrium market price of risk in terms of a solution to a non-linear BSDE.     

Supply chain performance assessment and supplier and component importance identification in a general competitive multitiered supply chain network model

In this paper, we develop a multitiered competitive supply chain network game theory model, which includes the supplier tier. The firms are differentiated by brands and can produce their own components, as reflected by their capacities, and/or obtain components from one or more suppliers, who also are capacitated. The firms compete in a Cournot–Nash fashion, whereas the suppliers compete a la Bertrand since firms are sensitive to prices. All decision-makers seek to maximize their profits with consumers reflecting their preferences through the demand price functions associated with the demand markets for the firms’ products. We construct supply chain network performance measures for the full supply chain and the individual firm levels that assess the efficiency of the supply chain or firm, respectively, and also allow for the identification and ranking of the importance of suppliers as well as the components of suppliers with respect to the full supply chain or individual firm. The framework is illustrated through a series of numerical supply chain network examples.     

动态供应链网络均衡模型构建与分析

基于单一商品流,考虑了时间变量和库存问题,建立了三层动态供应链网络结构模型.对制造商、零售商和需求市场的多期独立决策行为及其相互作用进行了分析,应用变分不等式构建了各层均衡模型和整个供应链网络均衡模型.最后与相关文献的模型进行了比较.     

Dynamic structural percolation model of loss distribution for cyber risk of small and medium-sized enterprises for tree-based LAN topology

Cyber risk due to breach can be seen as a risk of a financial loss due to breach of an institution’s IT infrastructure by unauthorized parties and exploiting, taking possession of, or disclosing data assets, thus creating financial and/or reputation damage. In this paper, as a primary contribution to the existing body of actuarial literature, we propose a structural model of aggregate loss distribution for cyber risk of small and medium-sized enterprises under the assumption of a tree-based LAN topology. Up to our knowledge, there exist no theoretical models of an aggregate loss distribution for cyber risk in this setting. To achieve our goal, we contextualize the problem in the probabilistic graph-theoretical framework using percolation models. We assume that the IT network topology is represented by a random graph allowing for heterogeneous loss topology and providing instructive numerical examples.