考虑混合信息表征和属性交互的目标导向新产品开发方案选择方法

将目标值融入到新产品开发方案选择中,考虑方案属性值达成目标值的情况,有助于企业选择更具竞争力的产品开发方案。针对属性值和目标值的混合信息表征以及属性交互的问题,提出基于目标导向决策分析和k-可加模糊测度的新产品开发方案选择方法。首先,考虑目标值和属性值表示为区间值、模糊数、语言值等混合信息的情形,将其转化为概率密度;结合属性的三种偏好,利用目标导向决策分析计算属性值达成目标值的概率。其次,基于属性交互方向和强度等信息,利用最小方差法识别k-可加模糊测度,进而利用Choquet积分算子集结各属性的目标达成概率作为产品开发方案选择的依据。最后,将方法应用于大型集成电路测试仪的开发方案选择,验证了有效性。     

分式规划模糊投资组合模型的遗传算法求解

将预期收益率表示为模糊数,以E-SV风险测度为基础给出了组合证券投资决策的效用函数,并建立了基于分式规划的模糊投资组合选择模型,考虑到模型求解的复杂性,我们利用遗传算法构造罚函数对模型进行了求解,并通过实例,验证了该模型解法的可行性和有效性.     

基于2-可加模糊测度的NPD项目复杂性评价

针对NPD项目复杂性各因素间具有的关联性以及传统评价方法的局限性,提出一种基于关联多属性的2-可加模糊测度方法来对NPD项目复杂性进行评价。在界定项目复杂性内涵的基础上,从产品复杂性、环境复杂性、组织复杂性和技术复杂性四个方面构建了NPD项目复杂性评价指标体系。从模糊测度、默比乌斯变换和交互作用系数间的转化关系出发,基于最大Marichal熵原则,提出了一种确定2-可加模糊测度值的新方法。利用Choquet积分作为集结算子,自下而上计算各候选方案的综合评价值。最后,通过具体算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于预期方案求解多属性决策问题的新方法研究

章提出了基于预期方案求解多属性决策问题的一种新方法。该方法基于预期方案，利用指数效用曲线拟合指标数据，通过定义的偏差测度和指标一致度来确定相应的指标权重，最后通过动态调整预期方案进行多属性综合评价。     

一种区间Pythagorean模糊VIKOR多属性群决策方法

针对属性信息为区间Pythagorean模糊集且属性权重和专家权重均未知的一类群决策问题, 结合信息熵理论, 提出了一种区间Pythagorean模糊VIKOR多属性群决策方法。首先定义一种新的区间Pythagorean模糊距离测度, 并讨论其性质。其次基于该距离测度定义了区间Pythagorean模糊相对距离指数, 并基于相对距离指数构建了一种熵权模型确定专家权重和属性权重。然后提出一种区间Pythagorean模糊VIKOR多属性群决策方法。最后通过企业生产方案选择案例说明了提出新方法的可行性与有效性。     

基于后悔理论及云模型的多属性群决策方法

针对属性值为不确定语言信息的群决策问题,考虑决策者后悔规避的心理行为特征,提出了一种基于后悔理论及云模型的多属性群决策方法.首先,将不确定语言值转化为云模型;其次,给出一种新的考虑决策者期望的方法求解其权重;然后,通过给出的云模型效用函数构建效用值矩阵,进而通过后悔-欣喜函数构建感知效用矩阵确定方案的综合感知效用,并根据其排序;最后,通过实例说明了方法的可行性和科学有效性.     

考虑信息源相关的对偶犹豫模糊多属性绿色行为决策方法

内容利用经典数学处理多属性绿色行为决策时,通常假定属性及属性信息源联盟,有序位置及有序位置联盟之间是独立的,并且Chqouet积分在处理其独立性时只考虑了属性及属性信息源联盟、有序位置及有序位置联盟之间的一种,没有同时考虑这两种情况,有悖于实际应用,为此,提出了考虑属性及属性信息源联盟之间相互依赖的区间值对偶犹豫模糊多属性决策方法.首先,基于传统的信息集成算子,定义了诱导广义区间值对偶犹豫模糊夏普利混合加权平均算子,证明了其正确性;其次,结合Shapley值给出了一种属性和有序位置权重均为未知的混合型多属性决策模型,基于模糊属性的相似性测度构建了区间值对偶犹豫模糊测度目标规划模型,进而提出了一种方案的属性评价信息和属性权重相关的均以区间值对偶犹豫数信息源表示的多属性决策方法;最后,通过模糊环境下的企业绿色行为选择问题算例的比较说明了该方法的可行性和有效性.分析结果表明,考虑信息源相关的区间值对偶犹豫模糊决策结果不仅符合人的主观心理,同时增强了Shapley值的表示范围.     

基于模糊积分的金融数据建模方法

以非可加模糊测度代替经典可加测度,基于模糊积分建立非线性回归模型是新近出现的数据建模方法.该方法充分考虑自变量因素之间的信息熔合(含协同或冲突)作用.本文完整地给出了适用于实数范围内的基于模糊积分(含Choquet积分和(S)ipo(s)积分)的多元非线性回归模型转化为普通线性回归模型的非线性转换方法及其简化算法.并将该方法应用于金融市场数据分析,结果表明效果较之普通多元线性回归有大的提高,且方法简便容易应用.     

基于直觉模糊软信息的多属性群决策方法

针对属性权重和专家权重信息都完全未知的多属性群决策问题,提出了一类以直觉模糊软集为数据环境的群决策方法。通过提取理想点结合距离测度构建非线性规划模型来求解属性权重。利用得分函数进行矩阵变换,基于各对象的综合正、负理想值构造满意度,并根据总体满意度最大化原则构建规划模型确定专家权重。最后利用属性权重和专家权重对得分矩阵进行加权平均,计算各对象的综合得分,进而给出具体的多属性群决策过程,并实例验证了决策方法的可行性和合理性。     

多源异构数据环境下基于模糊积分融合的公租房退出方法

为有效解决公租房退出问题,提出一种基于多源异构数据的模糊积分融合退出方法,该退出方法首先给出一种多源异构数据的同构化方法,然后针对常用模糊测度确定方法原理复杂、计算困难的问题,提出一种原理简单、易于计算的模糊测度确定方法,该模糊测度确定方法利用单个属性的相对重要程度和两两属性之间的交互度计算单个属性的全局重要程度,最后,根据模糊测度的单调性和有界性通过专家逐级打分计算各子属性集的重要程度。实例验证表明所提出的退出方法可行、有效。     

Estimating the population utility function: A parametric Bayesian approach

In this paper we consider the health utility index mark II for quantifying and describing a population’s health related quality of life over health states composed of multiple attributes. This measure can be used for various purposes such as evaluating the severity of the effect of a disease or comparing different treatment methods. We present a Bayesian framework for population utility estimation and health policy evaluation by introducing a probabilistic interpretation of the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) used in health economics. In doing so, our approach combines ideas from the MAUT and Bayesian statistics and provides an alternative method of modeling preferences and utility estimation.     

拟阵上模糊合作对策的Banzhaf函数

首先通过对清晰拟阵定义的拓展,给出了模糊拟阵的概念。通过定义具有多线性扩展形式的模糊合作对策在静态结构和动态结构拟阵上B anzhaf函数的公理体系,分别探讨了此类模糊合作对策在这两种拟阵上关于B anzhaf函数的存在性和唯一性。同时,通过定义具有Choquet积分形式模糊合作对策在静态结构和动态结构拟阵上B anzhaf函数的公理体系,分别探讨了此类模糊合作对策在这两种拟阵上关于B anzhaf函数的存在性和唯一性。     

Aggregation of utility-based individual preferences for group decision-making

Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) elicits an individual decision maker’s preferences for single attributes and develops a utility function by mathematics formulation to add up the preferences of the entire set of attributes when assessing alternatives. A common aggregation method of MAUT for group decisions is the simple additive weighting (SAW) method, which does not consider the different preferential levels and preferential ranks for individual decision makers’ assessments of alternatives in a decision group, and thus seems too intuitive in achieving the consensus and commitment for group decision aggregation. In this paper, the preferential differences denoting the preference degrees among different alternatives and preferential priorities denoting the favorite ranking of the alternatives for each decision maker are both considered and aggregated to construct the utility discriminative values for assessing alternatives in a decision group. A comparative analysis is performed to compare the proposed approach to the SAW model, and a satisfaction index is used to investigate the satisfaction levels of the final two resulting group decisions. In addition, a feedback interview is conducted to understand the subjective perceptions of decision makers while examining the results obtained from these two approaches for the second practical case. Both investigation results show that the proposed approach is able to achieve a more satisfying and agreeable group decision than that of the SAW method.     

Non-additive robust ordinal regression: A multiple criteria decision model based on the Choquet integral

Within the multicriteria aggregation–disaggregation framework, ordinal regression aims at inducing the parameters of a decision model, for example those of a utility function, which have to represent some holistic preference comparisons of a Decision Maker (DM). Usually, among the many utility functions representing the DM’s preference information, only one utility function is selected. Since such a choice is arbitrary to some extent, recently robust ordinal regression has been proposed with the purpose of taking into account all the sets of parameters compatible with the DM’s preference information. Until now, robust ordinal regression has been implemented to additive utility functions under the assumption of criteria independence. In this paper we propose a non-additive robust ordinal regression on a set of alternatives A, whose utility is evaluated in terms of the Choquet integral which permits to represent the interaction among criteria, modelled by the fuzzy measures, parameterizing our approach.     

Measuring the interactions among variables of functions over the unit hypercube

By considering a least squares approximation of a given square integrable function f:n[0,1]→R by a multilinear polynomial of a specified degree, we define an index which measures the overall interaction among variables of f. This definition extends the concept of Banzhaf interaction index introduced in cooperative game theory. Our approach is partly inspired from multilinear regression analysis, where interactions among the independent variables are taken into consideration. We show that this interaction index has appealing properties which naturally generalize several properties of the Banzhaf interaction index. In particular, we interpret this index as an expected value of the difference quotients of f or, under certain natural conditions on f, as an expected value of the derivatives of f. Finally, we discuss a few applications of the interaction index in aggregation function theory.     

Sensitivity analysis incorporating fuzzy evaluation for scaling constants of multiattribute utility functions

A multiattribute utility function can be represented by a function of single-attribute utility functions if the decision maker’s preference satisfies additive independence or mutually utility independence. Additive independence is a preference condition stronger than mutually utility independence, and the multiattribute utility function is in the additive form if the former condition is satisfied, otherwise it is in the multiplicative form. In this paper, we propose a method for sensitivity analysis of multiattribute utility functions in multiplicative form, taking into account the imprecision of the decision maker’s judgment in the procedures for determining scaling constants (attribute weights).     

模糊合作博弈局中人参与水平间相互作用度量

本文基于经典合作博弈局中人间相互作用现象的有关度量方法,针对具有模糊联盟的合作博弈问题,给出了模糊联盟中各局中人参与水平间相互作用的度量方法,定义了水平间相互独立性概念,建立了反映局中人各参与水平间相互作用平均程度的两指标:Shapley相互作用指标及Banzhaf相互作用指标.同时对于具有k-单调性的模糊合作博弈局中人参与水平间的边缘相互作用的有关性质作了进一步研究,得出了一些新的结论.     

Multi-attribute non-expected utility

In management applications of risk theory, planning and decision making are typically concerned with complex multi-dimensional attributes of risk and utility trade-offs between them. This paper presents a novel approach to multi-attribute non-expected utility which is especially designed to serve application and risk management purposes. It is based on a recently developed non-expected utility model that accommodates systematic violations of expected utility of various kinds observed in risky choice experiments. In the model, the possible outcomes of risky decisions are assumed to be multi-dimensional, that is, classified, measured, compared and assessed from different economic and non-economic perspectives simultaneously. Of the risk attributes to be jointly evaluated in a decision problem, each is supposed to be utility independent of the complementary set of all the other attributes also considered. Mutual utility independence and additive independence are particularly pronounced forms of utility independence. An order-preserving preference functional exists if the agent??s risk preferences satisfy familiar rationality requirements. The functional provides a consistently scaled, multi-linear representation in terms of single-attribute probability-dependent utility functions. Finally, the formalism is applied to explain observed trade-offs between monetary benefits obtained, and fatalities incurred, in the operation of large-scale industrial systems.     

部分权重信息下对方案有互补偏好的多属性决策法

研究了只有部分权重信息且对方案的偏好信息以模糊互补判断矩阵形式给出的多属性决策问题.首先,基于模糊互补判断矩阵的主观偏好信息,利用转换函数将客观决策信息一致化,建立一个目标规划模型,通过求解该模型得到属性权重,从而利用加性加权法获得各方案的综合属性值,并以此对方案进行排序或择优.提出了一种基于目标规划的多属性决策方法.该方法具有操作简便和易于上机实现的特点.最后,通过实例说明模型及方法的可行性和有效性.