Corporate manpower planning

In this paper the necessity of corporate manpower planning is discussed and the growing interest in it within many organizations. In particular medium and long term forecasting in rather large and structured organizations are explained and the need for tools to get a survey of the evolution of their personnel strength. These tools should help management and staff-members of a planning or personnel department to design alternative policies concerning promotions, recruitments, etc.We will present a planning method which satisfies these requirements. The interactive manpower planning system FORMASY presents forecasts concerning the evolution of the personnel strength and makes it possible to assess the impacts of alternative policies. This planning system is based on a Markov model and is being used on a general purpose computer in several Dutch organizations, both industrial and governmental.FORMASY has proved its value for practical manpower planning which will be explained by means of a case-study with the Royal Dutch Airforce.     

基层部队人力资源优化配置的动态规划模型研究

军事人力资源管理是我军政治工作的重要组成部分。在给出军事人员价值评价指标体系的基础上,对军事人员价值贡献度进行了研究。运用动态规划模型对一定条件下基层部队人力资源按照级别层次进行分配,力求综合价值贡献度最高,人力成本最少,实现与部队级别层次结构的结合,从整体上提高基层部队人力资源的优化配置。     

Optimal recruitment strategies in a multi-level manpower planning model

Markov manpower planning models have extensively been analysed in the past in order to find an optimal personnel strategy for which the stocks of the manpower system evolve towards desirable ones. So far, those models do not take into account interactions among different organizational decision levels. In this paper, a multi-level manpower planning model is presented that considers, besides the desirable stock vector at overall level, proposals for the departmental stocks from lower organizational levels. Attainability of the stock vectors at departmental level is examined under control by recruitment and interdepartmental transitions. A multi-level optimization algorithm is presented to determine an optimal recruitment strategy resulting in attainable and acceptable stocks that are a compromise between the proposal from the top and the proposals from the departments.     

An extended and tractable approach on the convergence problem of the mixed push-pull manpower model

In this paper, the asymptotic behavior of the time-homogeneous mixed push-pull manpower model is studied under the assumption that the desired stock vector and the recruitment policy are fixed over time. In the mixed push-pull manpower model, the internal mobility of a personnel system can be regulated by both pull and push transitions. Based on those characteristics, we express and examine the dynamics of the personnel system by formulating the mixed push-pull manpower model by means of particular transition matrices, which we demonstrate to have interesting properties. We show that under certain conditions the stock vector converges. An explicit analytical form for this limiting personnel stock vector is found.     

Hidden heterogeneity in manpower systems: A Markov-switching model approach

In modeling manpower systems, it is of crucial importance to deal with heterogeneity. Until recently, manpower models are dealing with heterogeneity due to observable sources, neglecting heterogeneity due to latent sources. In this paper a two-step procedure is introduced. In the first step personnel groups homogeneous with respect to the transition probabilities are determined in a classical way by taking into account the observable sources of heterogeneity. In the second step heterogeneity caused by latent sources is handled. A multinomial Markov-switching manpower model is introduced that deals with heterogeneity due to latent sources for the internal flows as well as for the wastage flows. The model incorporates the mover-stayer principle. A re-estimation algorithm is presented to estimate the parameters of the Markov-switching manpower model. The switching approach offers a methodology to build a Markov model with personnel groups as states that are more homogeneous, and therefore can contribute to a better validity of the manpower model.     

Recruitment Effects on Manpower Structures

Recruitment is one of the dynamics of manpower systems that can usually be most effectively controlled, always assuming that there is at any time an adequate supply of recruits to a system. In this situation, recruitment can be fixed to meet immediate demands, or it can be part of long-term planning programmes designed perhaps to alleviate a skewness in the length of service profile without reducing the strength of the system greatly. In general, recruitment levels will necessarily be connected with wastage and promotion in a system as well as with the desired growth of the system. The process of determining manpower-planning policies, hereunder recruitment levels, is open to a variety of options with regard to the underlying assumptions that are made: observed experience can be assumed to continue; promotion policies can be adjusted and the consequences estimated; recruitment levels can be allowed to meet immediate demands but with the restriction of some maximum level; or recruitment levels are pre-fixed on the basis of some perhaps even arbitrary management desires. Each of these options and each accompanying recruitment policy will affect the internal structure of the system, with regard to both rank and length of service profiles. This paper employs established projection and promotion models for hierarchical manpower systems to consider recruitment policies and their effects on internal structures. Various policy models are outlined and results presented for a particular application.     

Modelling recruitment training in mathematical human resource planning

This paper deals with mathematical human resource planning; more specifically, it suggests a new model for a manpower‐planning system. In general, we study a k‐classed hierarchical system where the workforce demand at each time period is satisfied through internal mobility and recruitment. The motivation for this work is based on various European Union incentives, which promote regional or local government assistance programs that could be exploited by firms not only for hiring and training newcomers, but also to improve the skills and knowledge of their existing personnel. In this respect, in our augmented mobility model we establish a new ‘training/standby’ class, which serves as a manpower inventory position for potential recruits. This class, which may very well be internal or external to the system, is incorporated into the framework of a non‐homogeneous Markov chain model. Furthermore, cost objectives are employed using the goal‐programming approach, under different operating assumptions, in order to minimize the operational cost in the presence of system's constraints and regulations. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Productivity Indices and Personnel Comparative Assessment in a Multidivisional Corporation

The objective of this study is to explore the determinants and relative performance of manpower in the distribution divisions of the Electricity Utility in Greece. A cross-sectional factor analysis model is proposed for analyzing differences in operating conditions between the divisions; an initial set of variables, which relate to manpower activities, is reduced to some composite dimensions each representing a distinct characteristic of the environment within which personnel activities take place. Regressing personnel along these dimensions an inter-divisional comparison of manning is carried out and some indices of labour-productivity are derived.     

Modelling heterogeneity in manpower planning: dividing the personnel system into more homogeneous subgroups

Manpower planning is very useful for human resource management in large organizations. Most manpower models are concerned with the prediction of the future behaviour of the staff: they might leave the organization, get promoted or acquire more and new skills. This behaviour can vary a lot among different employees, what makes prediction difficult. It is common to tackle this problem by dividing the whole heterogeneous personnel system in several more homogeneous subgroups. This approach is often used to develop manpower planning models for prediction, control or optimization. Although the division in homogeneous subcategories is a fundamental and important step in the application of the models, up till now literature neglects to discuss a procedure to deal with this in practice. This paper suggests a general framework to find the distinguished homogeneous subcategories by determining and considering observable sources of personnel heterogeneity. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The augmented semi‐Markov system and its asymptotic behaviour

This paper suggests a generalized semi‐Markov model for manpower planning, which could be adopted in cases of unavailability of candidates with the desired qualifications/experience, as well as in cases where an organization provides training opportunities to its personnel. In this context, we incorporate training classes into the framework of a non‐homogeneous semi‐Markov system and we introduce an additional, external semi‐Markov system providing the former with potential recruits. For the model above, referred to as the Augmented Semi‐Markov System, we derive the equations that reflect the expected number of persons in each grade and we also investigate its limiting population structure. An illustrative example is provided. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Stochastic Theory of Compartments: The General Time-dependent Two-compartment Reversible System with an Application to Manpower Planning

In this paper a general time-dependent stochastic model for the analysis of the two-compartment reversible system with non-homogeneous Poisson inputs and arbitrary residence times in each of the compartments is presented. The transition probabilities are suitably modified in order to be useful for estimation purposes of the parameters of the model. Various results are derived in terms of the distributions of the residence times only and are expressed in the form of convolution integrals which are readily evaluated by means of known computational algorithms. Finally, the theoretical results are applied to examples from the literature on manpower planning and some practical implications for the personnel and labour fields are considered.     

Stochastic optimal control of internal hierarchical labor markets

This paper develops an optimal control model for a graded manpower system where the demand for manpower is uncertain. The organization's objective is to minimize the discounted costs of operating the manpower system, including excess demand costs. The stock of workers in various grades can be adjusted in two ways. The first method is outside hiring flows, which is the usual control variable used in previous research. The second method is to control the transition rates between grades of the hierarchy, an instrument not previously studied. Incorporating the transition rates into the control variables creates time lags in the control process. The resulting problem is solved numerically using an approximation for the time-lagged control variables. The numerical example is based on the Air Force officer hierarchy. The model is used to examine such issues as the desirability of granting tenure to workers who are not promoted to the highest grade and the effects of length-of-service and demand uncertainty on manpower policy.     

A continuous time markov-renewal replacement model for manpower systems

A continuous time Markov-renewal model is presented that generalizes the classical Young and Almond model for manpower systems with given size. The construction is based on the associated Markov-renewal replacement process and exploits the properties of the embedded replacement chain. The joint cumulant generating function of the grade sizes is derived and an asymptotic analysis provides conditions for these to converge in distribution to a multinominal random vector exponentially fast independently of the initial distribution, both for aperiodic and periodic embedded replacement chains. A regenerative approach to the wastage process is outlined and two numerical examples from the literature on manpower planning illustrate the theory.     

Knowledge-based manpower planning

The capacity performance of knowledge-based systems differs essentially from the one of traditional systems. The result is that already today these systems are employed in a number of application areas, and that the intensity of research and development in this field is very high.In this paper the development of a knowledge-based manpower planning system (KBMS) is described. The two main components of this system are a knowledge-based system developed for management planning and a model designed for manpower planning in personnel leasing companies. This model was realized as a KBMPS by applying the knowledge-based system, which was developed for management planning.     

The multivariate non-homogeneous Markov manpower system in a departmental mobility framework

The present paper proposes a non-homogeneous multivariate Markov manpower system in the general category of mathematical human resource planning. More specifically, we suggest a model, which takes into account the divisions existing in an organization categorizing its employees into several groups (departments). In this context, it considers not only possible transitions within the departments (intra-department transitions), but also, transfers of personnel between departments (inter-department transitions). Additionally, the proposed modeling structure is accompanied by cost and stocks (personnel) objectives which are set and in the sequel could be achieved by controlling either the recruitment policy or the allocation policy of employees transferred to other departments (or both). We use a minmax fuzzy goal-programming approach, under different operating assumptions, in order to keep the operational cost below desired aspiration levels and reach desirable stock structures in the presence of system’s constraints and regulations. The paper concludes with a numerical illustration.     

A Markovian Goal Programming Approach to Aggregate Manpower Planning

The combination of a manpower supply model (a Markov type model based on historical probabilities of losses, promotions and gains) and goal programming with preemptive priorities provides a useful tool for developing a future year manpower plan under conflicting socio-econo-organizational objectives. Successful utilization requires a close management involvement in adjusting probabilities and specifying goals, priorities and impending policy changes. Such an approach is presented in this paper and illustrated by means of an industrial case study example. The presentation is kept simple, yet detailed and unified, so that is is easily understood by practitioners and students of operational research/management science.     

Evaluation of staffing policies in Markov manpower systems and their extension to organizations with outsource personnel

This paper takes up the problem of the evaluation of manpower policies followed in an organization, and examines it in relation to the career growth facilitation afforded by the system to its members. The method proposes and constructs a quantitative measure of effectiveness for manpower policies based on the career growth facilitation afforded to the members, which can then be used for comparative evaluation of different policies. The models are then extended to organizations which outsource work through outsource manpower, and which seek to control the blend of internal and outsource manpower. The models and analyses developed herein will be of relevance to all manpower systems, and in particular, to organizations which outsource work, and those that attempt to achieve desired blends of the outsource staff with their own.     

Balancing attainability,desirability and promotion steadiness in manpower planning systems

A Markov manpower planning model with fixed internal transition probabilities, enables assessing the feasibility to attain the most desirable personnel structure. In case the desirable personnel structure is not attainable under control by recruitment, the internal personnel flows can be modified while not disrupting the career progression expectations. This paper introduces the promotion steadiness degree to quantify the personnel policy deviation from the career progression expectations. As a result, this paper focuses on a model that balances three criteria, that is, the desirability degree, the attainability degree and the promotion steadiness degree, formulated by fuzzy membership functions. A new set of instances is introduced, and the algorithms are evidenced in a set of experiments.     

Sensitivity Analysis of Promotion Opportunities in Graded Organizations

This paper extends earlier work on manpower mobility in hierarchical organizations and is concerned especially with the effects of changes in hiring and separation on opportunities for internal advancement. We make use of a fractional flow model of personnel to highlight the links between personnel flows and vacancy flows, and then derive formulae that can be used to simulate the impact of changes in grade-size targets, hiring policy and attrition rates on promotion opportunities for staff. The model is then illustrated by application to data on faculty staffing in a large university.     

企业家人力资源培训问题的整数规划模型

本文强调了企业家人力资源在企业核心能力和可持续成长能力生成中的重要作用和地位。基于时间和费用指标,研究了企业家人力资源培训问题,利用0-1线性整数规划建立了一个带有培训时间约束的最小培训费用模型,给出了求解模型的基于Lagrange松弛的分解算法,计算实例表明给出的算法是有效的。