A multicriteria DSS for stock evaluation using fundamental analysis

The paper describes a multicriteria decision support system which aims at presenting an evaluation of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) stocks, on the basis of fundamental analysis. The system evaluates the stocks based on the method of fundamental analysis ratios, which is the most appropriate evaluation approach regarding investment decisions within a long term horizon. In addition to quantitative data deriving from fundamental analysis, the system uses qualitative data as well, in order to improve the reliability of the evaluation. The system introduced in this paper, utilises multicriteria analysis methodologies in order to rank the stocks by placing the best stock first and the worst last. Stock evaluation considers the specific characteristics of the potential investor, as well as his attitude towards undertaken risk. The final output of the system is four stock rankings which respond to four different criteria groups, depending on the type of accounting plan each listed company belongs to. The system incorporates a large volume of relevant information and operates in ‘real world conditions’ since its data are constantly updated. Finally, the system is intended for both institutional and private investors.     

Development and Evaluation of Decision-Making Model for Stock Markets

The paper introduces an intelligent decision-making model which is based on the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) and swarm intelligence technologies. The proposed model is used to generate one-step forward investment decisions for stock markets. The ANN are used to make the analysis of daily stock returns and to calculate one day forward decision for purchase of the stocks. Subsequently the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied in order to select the “the best” ANN for the future investment decisions and to adapt the weights of other networks towards the weights of the best network. The experimental investigations were made considering different forms of decision-making model: different number of ANN, ANN inputs, sliding windows, and commission fees. The paper introduces the decision-making model, its evaluation results and discusses its application possibilities.     

The extended linear assignment method for multiple criteria decision analysis based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets

The theory of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets is useful and beneficial for handling uncertainty and imprecision in multiple criteria decision analysis. In addition, the theory allows for convenient quantification of the equivocal nature of human subjective assessments. In this paper, by extending the traditional linear assignment method, we propose a useful method for solving multiple criteria evaluation problems in the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy context. A ranking procedure consisting of score functions, accuracy functions, membership uncertainty indices, and hesitation uncertainty indices is presented to determine a criterion-wise preference of the alternatives. An extended linear assignment model is then constructed using a modified weighted-rank frequency matrix to determine the priority order of various alternatives. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed method are illustrated with a multiple criteria decision-making problem involving the selection of a bridge construction method. Additionally, a comparative analysis with other methods, including the approach with weighted aggregation operators, the closeness coefficient-based method, and the auxiliary nonlinear programming models, has been conducted for solving the investment company selection problem to validate the effectiveness of the extended linear assignment method.     

Consensus reaching in committees

In this paper, we apply a consensus model to decision-making in committees that have to choose one or more alternatives from a set of alternatives. The model does not use a voting rule nor a set of winning coalitions. Every decision maker evaluates each alternative with respect to given criteria. The criteria may be of unequal importance to a decision maker. Decision makers may be advised by a chairman to adjust their preferences, i.e., to change their evaluation of some alternative(s) or/and the importance of the criteria, in order to obtain a better consensus. The consensus result should satisfy constraints concerning the consensus degree and the majority degree. A simple example is presented.     

可重构制造系统重组过程中设备选择模型的研究

根据生产任务选择加工设备进行制造资源重组是实现可重构制造系统的关键问题之一，由于设备的选择涉及到多种因素，既有定量指标，又有定性指标，传统的依靠人工经验的方法显得力不从心。本文首先结合实际情况，提出了一套设备选择评价体系，通过对模糊判断矩阵采用最小对数二乘法确定各评价因素的权重系数，针对定性指标和定量指标采用不同的方法确定其性能指标值，通过模糊积分对评判指标进行综合评判，最后进行了实例研究。所提出的方法有效地简化了决策过程，为可重构制造系统设备选择提供了一套行之有效的方法。     

Stochastic volatility asymptotics of stock loans: Valuation and optimal stopping

A stock loan, or equity security lending service, is a loan which uses stocks as collateral. The borrower has the right to repay the principal with interest and regain the stock, or make no repayment and surrender the stock. Therefore, the valuation of stock loan is an optimal stopping problem related to a perpetual American option with a negative effective interest rate. The negative effective interest rate makes standard techniques for perpetual American option pricing failure. Using a fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility model, we applied a perturbation technique to the free-boundary value problem for the stock loan price. An analytical pricing formula and optimal exercise boundary are derived by means of asymptotic expansion.     

Multicriteria fuzzy decision-making method using entropy weights-based correlation coefficients of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets

A multicriteria fuzzy decision-making method based on weighted correlation coefficients using entropy weights is proposed under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment for the some situations where the information about criteria weights for alternatives is completely unknown. To determine the entropy weights with respect to a decision matrix provided as interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs), we propose two entropy measures for IVIFSs and establish an entropy weight model, which can be used to determine the criteria weights on alternatives, and then propose an evaluation formula of weighted correlation coefficient between an alternative and the ideal alternative. The alternatives can be ranked and the most desirable one(s) can be selected according to the values of the weighted correlation coefficients. Finally, two applied examples demonstrate the applicability and benefit of the proposed method: it is capable for handling the multicriteria fuzzy decision-making problems with completely unknown weights for criteria.     

基于HWSME的股票最佳投资区域起端的模糊综合评判方法

寻找进入主升浪的股票对投资效益最大化意义重大.讨论并界定了股票最佳投资区域,借助于HWSME和模糊综合评判,建立了股票最佳投资区域起端的模糊综合评判方法,构建了评价指标体系和隶属函数.通过对中国股票市场部分股票进行了横向和纵向预测实验,结果证明了方法的有效性.对投资效益最大化提供了强有力的分析工具.     

蕴含权重的偏序集多准则决策法

针对偏序集方法不能解决含有权重的多准则决策问题,提出一种“隐式”赋权的偏序决策方法。首先将含有m个方案和n个准则的决策问题表示成偏序集,之后按权重由大到小的顺序,对准则进行逐步相加形成n个新的准则,得到一个新的偏序集。根据偏序集间的包含关系,证明了新偏序集不仅蕴含了权重信息,而且比初始偏序集有更强的排序能力。结果表明,该法在应用中仅需获取权重排序信息,无需精确权重,适用于权重难以确定的多准则决策问题。以三峡库区水质评价为例,例子表明新方法明显优于原有的偏序决策方法,能够对13个方案进行聚类和排序,而原有方法在该例中几乎难以应用。     

Fuzzy decision-making method based on the weighted correlation coefficient under intuitionistic fuzzy environment

A multicriteria fuzzy decision-making method based on weighted correlation coefficients using entropy weights is proposed under intuitionistic fuzzy environment for some situations where the information about criteria weights for alternatives is completely unknown. To determine the entropy weights with respect to a set of criteria represented by intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs), we establish an entropy weight model, which can be used to get the criteria weights, and then propose an evaluation formula of weighted correlation coefficient between an alternative and the ideal alternative. The alternatives can be ranked and the most desirable one(s) can be selected according to the weighted correlation coefficients. Finally, two illustrative examples demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Extensions of the multicriteria analysis with pairwise comparison under a fuzzy environment

Multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems often involve a complex decision process in which multiple requirements and fuzzy conditions have to be taken into consideration simultaneously. The existing approaches for solving this problem in a fuzzy environment are complex. Combining the concepts of grey relation and pairwise comparison, a new fuzzy MCDM method is proposed. First, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to construct fuzzy weights of all criteria. Then, linguistic terms characterized by L–R triangular fuzzy numbers are used to denote the evaluation values of all alternatives versus subjective and objective criteria. Finally, the aggregation fuzzy assessments of different alternatives are ranked to determine the best selection. Furthermore, this paper uses a numerical example of location selection to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. The study results show that this method is an effective means for tackling MCDM problems in a fuzzy environment.     

Job evaluation in fuzzy environment

Job evaluation helps in developing and maintaining a pay structure based on values of the jobs. The job evaluation problem may be treated as managerial decision-making problem with multiple objectives. The present paper deals with the evaluation of a job in fuzzy environment. Fuzzy mathematical model has been developed for the job evaluation and solved with a suitable technique. A sample case study has been considered and the relative worth of various levels of job factors have been calculated numerically along with the scores of the benchmark jobs. An effort has been made to optimize the decision by maximizing the min operator.     

A hybrid model for selection of an outsourcing provider

Outsourcing is a good strategy for firms that need to reduce operating costs and improve competitiveness and it is important that firms scientifically select appropriate outsourcing providers. Some efforts have been made to find systematic ways to deal with outsourcing problems, but these efforts incorrectly assumed that the criteria used in the decision process are independent, which is not true in the real world. In this study, we propose a new hybrid multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, which addresses the dependent relationships between the various criteria. The relations-structure among the criteria is built with the aid of the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Decision-makers tend to hold diverse opinions about their preferences due to incomplete information and knowledge, or inherent conflict between various departments. We further used the fuzzy preference programming and the analytic network process (ANP) to form a model for the selection of partners for outsourcing providers. The proposed model can help practitioners improve their decision making process, especially when criteria are numerous and inter-related. The method is demonstrated using data from a Taiwanese airline.     

Combining grey relation and TOPSIS concepts for selecting an expatriate host country

As international corporate activities increase, their staffing involves more strategic concerns. However, foreign assignments have many differences, and dissatisfaction with the host country is a known cause of expatriate failure. From the point of view of an expatriate candidate, the decision of whether to take an expatriate assignment can be regarded as a FMCDM (fuzzy multiple criteria decision making) problem. This paper describes a fuzzy AHP (fuzzy analytic hierarchy process) to determine the weighting of subjective judgments. Using the Sugeno integral for λ-fuzzy measure, and using the nonadditive fuzzy integral technique to evaluate the synthetic utility values of the alternatives and the fuzzy weights, then the best host country alternative can be derived with the grey relation model. The authors further combine the grey relation model based on the concepts of TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) to evaluate and select the best alternative. A real case of expatriate assignment decision-making was used to demonstrate that the grey relation model combined with the ideas of TOPSIS results in a satisfactory and effective evaluation.     

A Personnel Selection Problem in Healthcare System Using Fuzzy-TOPSIS Approach

The methods of multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) are increasingly becoming the most desired tools for making daily decisions in various fields of human endeavors. Staff employment in any sector requires a thorough evaluation of the applicant before selection to ensure effective and efficient service delivery. Besides, healthcare is one of the most complicated organizations dealing with human lives. This paper has developed a staff selection model considering a fuzzy environment by using the technique for order preference similar to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) method. For the delivery and promotion of quality healthcare systems, medical staff selection is crucial to the system. Therefore, the study evaluates medical staff by using the expert''s linguistic judgement under the criteria of skill, experience and ability to respond to a problem. The expert''s vagueness in judgments has been represented by using fuzzy triangular numbers. The study determines the closeness coefficient, the measures of separation and the ideal solutions of the TOPSIS method. The most appropriate medical staff are ranked and selected based on the available criteria. The Fuzzy-TOPSIS method is simple and can help other organizations achieve proper ranking, evaluation and selection of qualified candidates, as it takes imprecise information into account.     

The pricing and optimal strategies of callable warrants

In this paper, we introduce a valuation model of callable warrants under a setting of the optimal stopping problem between the holder (investor) and the issuer (firm). A warrant is the right to purchase new shares at a predetermined price. When the new stocks are issued, the value of the stock is diluted. We consider the model taking the dilution into account. After identifying optimal policies for the issuer and the investor, we explore the analytical properties of the optimal exercise and call boundaries for the holder and the issuer, respectively. Furthermore, the value of such a callable warrant and the optimal critical prices are examined numerically using the binomial method.     

Optimal Die Stock Control at Firth Vickers Foundry

This case study emphasises the growing importance of management sciences, operational research, and computing in the decision-making processes of production management in a dynamic high-technology company. The study is concerned with a computer system for die stock control and selection developed in conjunction with the management of Firth Vickers Foundry, Sheffield, following an initial diagnostic survey to define the problem and outline a solution to it. This article describes the effect on production costs (melting, spinning, machining and die costs) of the system which is designed to enable management to exercise optimal control of die stocks in the centri-spinning section of the foundry. The approach to the problem and development of logic are, however, applicable to all fluid-to-solid process industries where differently sized regular moulds or dies are stocked to meet order patterns of variable dimensions.     

基于实验设计的概率语言权重信息多准则决策方法

作为模糊语言集的一种,概率语言集能够反映决策问题中评价准则权重重要程度及其概率,这在决策问题中较为实用。本文运用实验设计(Design of Experiment,DOE)的方法,对权重信息以概率语言给出的多准则决策问题进行研究:通过多次模拟权重重要程度及其概率,设计出多组实验权重,并用GRA法求得每组实验数据的得分,获得描述该决策问题准则值与评价结果相互影响关系的最适用回归方程,将决策问题的实际数据带入方程进行运算,得出方案排序结果。通过快速成型过程、柔性制造系统过程两个案例,进行对比验证。结果表明所提出的方法能较好地处理基于概率语言权重信息的多准则决策问题,计算简单且速度快,可重复性强且颇为实用。     

基于熵原理的上市公司综合评价研究

本通过综合考虑构建了上市公司的绩效评价体系。特别针对指标权重的确定问题，提出了基于广义最大熵原理和优化理论新的赋权方法。并以此对2002年沪深证券市场的1187家个股进行了排序分析，结果表明了该方法的合理性。     

熵权DEA混合多目标评价方法研究

提高多目标决策问题评价结果的客观性、准确性,一直是决策科学研究的重要课题.结合熵权、DEA等数学方法对多目标决策问题进行研究,构造混合评价方法.首先通过构造熵权模型,获取主观权重;其次DEA的方法对多目标决策问题进行综合评价,得到问题的综合评价值,最后根据评价结果进行问题分析和判断.算例结果表明,方法能够应用于多目标决策问题,评价结果客观、准确.