Pricing VIX options in a stochastic vol‐of‐vol model

This paper proposes and makes a study of a new model for volatility index option pricing. Factors such as mean‐reversion, jumps, and stochastic volatility are taken into consideration. In particular, the positive volatility skew is addressed by the jump and the stochastic volatility of volatility. Daily calibration is used to check whether the model fits market prices and generates positive volatility skews. Overall, the results show that the mean‐reverting logarithmic jump and stochastic volatility model (called MRLRJSV in the paper) serves as the best model in all the required aspects. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asymptotic properties of a stochastic predator–prey system with Holling II functional response

A stochastic predator–prey system with Holling II functional response is proposed and investigated. We show that there is a unique positive solution to the model for any positive initial value. And we show that the positive solution to the stochastic system is stochastically bounded. Moreover, under some conditions, we conclude that the stochastic model is stochastically permanent and persistent in mean.     

OU models based on positive and negative subordinate processes applying in SHIBOR time series analysis and derivative pricing – through discrete differential method

ABSTRACT

On account of that the OU models based on Gaussian process cannot describe the characteristics of peak, bias and asymmetric thick tail in SHIBOR time series, this paper replaces the Gaussian process in OU model with Levy process which can be decomposed into positive and negative subordinate processes, constructs OU model based on positive and negative subordinate processes. Methods parameter estimation and stochastic simulation were carried out by making discrete the stochastic differential equations into stochastic difference equations. The result shows that non-Gaussian OU process based on positive and negative subordinate processes not only fits the time series but also has better economic interpretation. The innovation of our research is to build a model of Non-Gaussian OU process based on positive and negative subordinate processes with less stochastic terms, and it provides an efficient tool for forecasting SHIBOR time series.     

Asymptotic dynamics of a deterministic and stochastic predator–prey model with disease in the prey species

In this paper, we discuss a predator–prey model with the Beddington–DeAngelis functional response of predators and a disease in the prey species. At first we study permanence and global stability of a positive equilibrium for the deterministic version of the model. Then we include a stochastic perturbation of the white noise type. We analyse the influence of this stochastic perturbation on the systems and prove that the positive equilibrium is also globally asymptotically stable in this case. The key point of our analysis is to choose appropriate Lyapunov functionals. We point out the differences between the deterministic and stochastic versions of the model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一类具有双时滞的四种群的随机捕食-食饵模型的解及渐近行为

本文讨论了一类特殊的带有双时滞的四种群的随机捕食-食饵模型.我们首先证明了该随机捕食-食饵模型对正的初始条件存在着唯一的全局正解.然后,通过构造适当的Lyapunov函数并结合伊藤公式的应用,从解在平衡点附近的渐近行为这一方面对随机模型进行了讨论.最后,利用常微分方程数值模拟来验证本文定理中的主要结论.     

Stationary Distribution and Extinction of Stochastic HTLV-I Infection Model with CTL Immune Response under Regime Switching

In this paper, the stochastic HTLV-I infection model with CTL immune response is investigated. Firstly, we show that the stochastic system exists unique positive global solution originating from the positive initial value. Secondly, we obtain that the existence of ergodic stationary distribution of the model by stochastic Lyapunov functions. Thirdly, we establish sufficient conditions for extinction of the infected cells. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Threshold dynamics of the stochastic epidemic model with jump-diffusion infection force

This paper formulates a stochastic SIR epidemic model by supposing that the infection force is perturbed by Brown motion and L\''{e}vy jumps. The globally positive and bounded solution is proved firstly by constructing the suitable Lyapunov function. Then, a stochastic basic reproduction number $R_0^{L}$ is derived, which is less than that for the deterministic model and the stochastic model driven by Brown motion. Analytical results show that the disease will die out if $R_0^{L}<1$, and $R_0^{L}>1$ is the necessary and sufficient condition for persistence of the disease. Theoretical results and numerical simulations indicate that the effects of L\''{e}vy jumps may lead to extinction of the disease while the deterministic model and the stochastic model driven by Brown motion both predict persistence. Additionally, the method developed in this paper can be used to investigate a class of related stochastic models driven by L\''{e}vy noise.     

Periodic solution of a stochastic SIQR epidemic model incorporating media coverage

In this paper, we propose a stochastic SIQR epidemic model with periodic parameters and media coverage. Firstly, we study that the stochastic non-autonomous periodic system has a unique global positive solution. Secondly, by using the Khasminskii''s theory, we prove that this stochastic periodic system has a nontrivial positive periodic solution. Then, we obtain the sufficient condition for extinction of the disease. Finally, numerical simulations are employed to illustrate our theoretical analysis.     

Pricing VXX option with default risk and positive volatility skew

This paper proposes and makes a comparative study of alternative models for VXX option pricing. Factors such as mean-reversion, jumps, default risk and positive volatility skew are taken into consideration. In particular, default risk is characterized by jump-to-default framework and the “positive volatility skew” issue is addressed by stochastic volatility of volatility and jumps. Daily calibration is conducted and comparative study of the models is performed to check whether they properly fit market prices and generate reasonable positive volatility skews and deltas. Overall, jump-to-default extended LRJ model with positive correlated stochastic volatility (called JDLRJSV in the paper) serves as the best model in all the required aspects.     

Asymptotic behavior of non-autonomous stochastic Gilpin–Ayala competition model with jumps

In this paper, a non-autonomous stochastic Gilpin–Ayala competition model with jumps is studied. We show that this model has a unique global positive solution under certain conditions, and establish sufficient conditions for stochastic ultimate boundedness. Asymptotic behavior of stochastic Gilpin–Ayala competition model with jumps is also discussed. Numerical examples are introduced to illustrate the results.     

Qualitative analysis of a stochastic ratio-dependent predator-prey system

A stochastic ratio-dependent predator-prey model is investigated in this paper. By the comparison theorem of stochastic equations and Itô’s formula, we obtain the global existence of a positive unique solution of the ratio-dependent model. Besides, a condition for species to be extinct is given and a persistent condition is established. We also conclude that both the prey population and the ratio-dependent function are stable in time average. In the end, numerical simulations are carried out to confirm our findings.     

Persistence and extinction of a stochastic Gilpin–Ayala model with jumps

This paper considers a stochastic Gilpin–Ayala model with jumps. First, we show the model that has a unique global positive solution. Then we establish the sufficient conditions for extinction, nonpersistence in the mean, weak persistence, and stochastic permanence of the solution. The threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained. Finally, we make simulations to conform our analytical results. The results show that the jump process can change the properties of the population model significantly. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic population dynamics driven by Lévy noise

This paper considers stochastic population dynamics driven by Lévy noise. The contributions of this paper lie in that: (a) Using the Khasminskii–Mao theorem, we show that the stochastic differential equation associated with our model has a unique global positive solution; (b) Applying an exponential martingale inequality with jumps, we discuss the asymptotic pathwise estimation of such a model.     

On a logistic growth model with predation and a power‐type diffusion coefficient: I. Existence of solutions and extinction criteria

We consider a logistic growth model with a predation term and a stochastic perturbation yielding constant elasticity of variance. The resulting stochastic differential equation does not satisfy the standard assumptions for existence and uniqueness of solutions, namely, linear growth and the Lipschitz condition. Nevertheless, for any positive initial condition, we prove that a solution exists and is unique up to the first time it hits zero. Additionally, we provide alternative criteria for population extinction depending on the choice of parameters. More precisely, we provide criteria that guarantee the following: (i) population extinction with positive probability for a set of initial conditions with positive Lebesgue measure; (ii) exponentially fast population extinction with full probability for any positive initial condition; and (iii) population extinction in finite time with full probability for any positive initial condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Confidence domain in the stochastic competition chemostat model with feedback control

This paper studies a stochastically forced chemostat model with feedback control in which two organisms compete for a single growth-limiting substrate. In the deterministic counterpart, previous researches show that the coexistence of two competing organisms may be achieved as a stable positive equilibrium or a stable positive periodic solution by different feedback schedules. In the stochastic case, based on the stochastic sensitivity function technique,we construct the confidence domains for different feedback schedules which allow us to find the configurational arrangements of the stochastic attractors and analyze the dispersion of the random states of the stochastic model.     

Dynamics of a Stochastic Predator–Prey Model with Stage Structure for Predator and Holling Type II Functional Response

In this paper, we develop and study a stochastic predator–prey model with stage structure for predator and Holling type II functional response. First of all, by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solutions to the model. Then, we obtain sufficient conditions for extinction of the predator populations in two cases, that is, the first case is that the prey population survival and the predator populations extinction; the second case is that all the prey and predator populations extinction. The existence of a stationary distribution implies stochastic weak stability. Numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the analytical results.     

Stochastic dynamics of an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment

Abstract

We investigate a stochastic HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment. The model allows for two stages of infection namely the asymptomatic phase and the symptomatic phase. We prove existence of global positive solutions. We show that the solutions are stochastically ultimately bounded and stochastically permanent. We also study asymptotic behaviour of the solution to the stochastic model around the disease-free equilibrium of the underlying deterministic model. Our theoretical results are illustrated by way of numerical simulations.     

On the existence of product stochastic measures

In this paper, we prove that the existence of product stochastic measures depends on the axiom-system of set theory: If one accepts the axiom of choice, the answer is negative, and we give a counter-example where the product stochastic measure doesn't exist; but in the Solovay model (one kind of set theory which refuses the axiom of choice), the answer is positive, and we give a proof.     

LONG-TERM DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF ENDANGERED SPECIES WITH STAGE-STRUCTURE AND MIGRATIONS IN POLLUTED ENVIRONMENTS

We propose a stochastic stage-structured single-species model with migrations and hunting within a polluted environment, where the species is separated into two groups: the immature and the mature, which migrates from one patch to another with different migration rates. By constructing a Lyapunov function, together with stochastic analysis approach, the stochastic single-species model admits a unique global positive solution. We then utilize the comparison theorem of stochastic differential equations to investigate the extinction and persistence of solution to stochastic single-species model. The main results indicate that the species densities all depend on the intensities of random perturbations within both patches. As a consequence, we further provide several strategies for protecting endangered species within protected and unprotected patches.     

A Stage-Structured Stochastic Model of Sterile Male Under Immigration

Abstract

This study deals with control of pest population in agricultural ecosystem using sterile insect technique (SIT). A three-dimensional stage-structured model of the pest under the release of sterile male has been considered. This article also considers the effect of this technique under immigration of wild insects in the control area. Moreover, the deterministic model is extended to a stochastic one allowing random fluctuations around the positive interior equilibrium. The stochastic stability properties of the model are investigated, both analytically and numerically. The thresholds of sterile males that obtained from our study might be helpful to understand and implement the technique properly.