Survival analysis of a single-species population model with fluctuations and migrations between patches

We formulate a single-species population model with fluctuations and migrations between two different patches (the nature reserve and the natural environment) to describe the situation that endangered species often meets with. Firstly, we prove that there exists a unique global positive solution to a stochastic single-species model with any positive initial value. Then, sufficient conditions that guarantee extinction and persistence in the mean of solutions are derived as the main results. It turns out that, under moderate fluctuation conditions, migration rates play significant roles for the persistence of endangered species in nature reserve and the natural environment. We further provide the sustainable strategies for local managers to avoid the extinction of endangered species, and separately carry out illustrative examples and numerical simulations at the end of this contribution.     

Population dynamical behavior of a single-species nonlinear diffusion system with random perturbation

We consider a single-species stochastic logistic model with the population’s nonlinear diffusion between two patches. We prove the system is stochastically permanent and persistent in mean, and then we obtain sufficient conditions for stationary distribution and extinction. Finally, we illustrate our conclusions through numerical simulation.     

Asymptotic properties and simulations of a stochastic single-species dispersal model under regime switching

Taking both white noise and colored environmental noise into account, a single-species logistic model with population’s nonlinear diffusion among two patches is proposed and investigated. The sufficient conditions of the existence of positive solutions, stochastic permanence, persistence in mean and extinction are established. Moreover, we use an example and simulation figures to illustrate our main results.     

Permanence of a single-species dispersal system and predator survival

This paper considers permanence of a single-species dispersal periodic system with the possibility of the loss for the species during their dispersion among patches. The condition obtained for permanence generalizes the known condition on the system without loss for the species in the process of movement. Next, we add predators into every patch and consider the survival possibility of the predator. It is shown that the total amount of the predators can remain positive, if the single-species (prey) dispersal system has a positive periodic solution and the quantity of prey in each patch is enough for survival of the predator.     

Permanence of dispersal population model with time delays

Permanence of a dispersal single-species population model is considered where environment is partitioned into several patches and the species requires some time to disperse between the patches. The model is described by delay differential equations. The existence of food-rich patches and small dispersions among the patches are proved to be sufficient to ensure partial permanence of the model. It is also shown that partial permanence ensures permanence if each food-poor patch is connected to at least one food-rich patch and if each pair in food-rich patches is connected. Furthermore, it is proved that partial persistence is ensured even under large dispersion among food-rich patches if the dispersion time is relatively small.     

Dynamics of stochastic single-species models

A type of stochastic single-species model is proposed and studied. The sufficient conditions of the existence of a unique solution, the existence of its stationary distribution, and stochastic permanence are obtained. Besides, the threshold conditions for its strong stochastic persistence and extinction are found. Finally, some examples and numerical simulations are introduced to support our main results.     

A SINGLE SPECIE MODEL WITH RANDOM PERTURBATION UNDER CONTRACEPTIVE CONTROL

In this paper, we formulate a single-species model of contraception control with white noise on the death rate. Firstly, the uniqueness of global positive solution of the model is proved. Secondly, uniformly bounded mean of solution is obtained by using the Liyapunov function and Chebyshev inequality. Lastly, stochastic global asymptotic stability of zero equilibriums is analyzed.     

Stochastic modified Beverton–Holt model with Allee effect II: the Cushing–Henson conjecture

We consider a single-species stochastic modified Beverton–Holt model with Allee effects caused by predator saturation. We prove that, under some conditions on the parameters, there exists a Markov operator that is asymptotically stable. A stochastic version of the Cushing–Henson conjecture on attenuance and resonance is investigated.     

The permanence and extinction of a nonlinear growth rate single-species non-autonomous dispersal models with time delays

In this paper, we consider the effect of diffusion on the permanence and extinction of a non-autonomous nonlinear growth rate single-species dispersal model with time delays. Firstly, the sufficient conditions of the permanence and extinction of the species are established, which shows if the growth rate and dispersal coefficients is suitable, the species is permanent, on the contrary, it is extinction. Secondly, an interesting result is established, that is, if only the species in some patches even in one patch is permanent, then it is also permanent in other patches. Finally, some examples together with their numerical simulations show the feasibility of our main results.     

Long term behaviors of stochastic single-species growth models in a polluted environment II

This is a continuation of our paper [M. Liu, K. Wang, X. Liu. Long term behaviors of stochastic single-species growth models in a polluted environment. Appl Math Model 2011;35:752–62]. This work still devotes to studying three stochastic single-species models in a polluted environment. For the first system, sufficient criteria for extinction, stochastic non-persistence in the mean, stochastic weak persistence in the mean, stochastic strong persistence in the mean and stochastic permanence of the population are established. The threshold between stochastic weak persistence in the mean and extinction is obtained. For the second model, sufficient conditions for extinction, stochastic non-persistence in the mean, stochastic weak persistence, stochastic weak persistence in the mean, stochastic strong persistence in the mean and stochastic permanence are established. The threshold between stochastic weak persistence and extinction is derived. For the third system, the threshold between stochastic weak persistence and extinction is obtained.     

Persistence and extinction of a single-species population system in a polluted environment with random perturbations and impulsive toxicant input

Taking both white noises and colored noises into account, a stochastic single-species model with Markov switching and impulsive toxicant input in a polluted environment is proposed and investigated. Sufficient conditions for extinction, non-persistence in the mean, weak persistence and stochastic permanence are established. The threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained. Some simulation figures are introduced to illustrate the main results.     

DYNAMICAL ANALYSIS OF A SINGLE-SPECIES POPULATION MODEL WITH MIGRATIONS AND HARVEST BETWEEN PATCHES

A single-species population model with migrations and harvest between the protected patch and the unprotected patch is formulated and investigated in this paper. We study the local stability and the global stability of the equilibria. The research points out, under some suitable conditions, the singlespecies population model admits a unique positive equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable. We also derive that the trivial solution is globally asymptotically stable when the harvesting rate exceeds the threshold. Further,we discuss the practical effects of the protection zones and the harvest. The main results indicate that the protective zones indeed eliminate the extinction of the species under some cases, and the theoretical threshold of harvest to the practical management of the endangered species is provided as well. To end this contribution and to check the validity of the main results, numerical simulations are separately carried out to illustrate these results.     

The Effect of Dispersal on Population Growth with Stage-structure

The effect of dispersal on the permanence of population in a polluted patch is studied in this paper. The authors constructed a single-species dispersal model with stage-structure in two patches. The analysis focuses on the case that the toxicant input in the polluted patch has a limit value. The authors derived the conditions under which the population will be either permanent, or extinct.     

Extinction and persistence of a stochastic Gilpin–Ayala model under regime switching on patches

The present study is designed to examine the effect of environmental noises in the asymptotic properties of a stochastic Gilpin–Ayala model on patches under regime switching. The Gilpin–Ayala parameter is also allowed to switch. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence of species are established.     

On a nonlinear nonautonomous predator–prey model with diffusion and distributed delay

In this paper, a nonlinear nonautonomous predator–prey model with diffusion and continuous distributed delay is studied, where all the parameters are time-dependent. The system, which is composed of two patches, has two species: the prey can diffuse between two patches, but the predator is confined to one patch. We first discuss the uniform persistence and global asymptotic stability of the model; after that, by constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional, some sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique almost periodic solution of the system are obtained. An example shows the feasibility of our main results.     

An Asset Liability Management Model for Casualty Insurers: Complexity Reduction vs. Parameterized Decision Rules

In this paper we study possibilities for complexity reductions in large scale stochastic programming problems with specific reference to the asset liability management (ALM) problem for casualty insurers. We describe a dynamic, stochastic portfolio selection model, within which the casualty insurer maximizes a concave objective function, indicating that the company perceives itself as risk averse. In this context we examine the sensitivity of the solution to the quality and accuracy with which economic uncertainties are represented in the model. We demonstrate a solution method that combines two solution approaches: A truly stochastic, dynamic solution method that requires scenario aggregation, and a solution method based on ex ante decision rules, that allow for a greater number of scenarios. This dynamic/fix mix decision policy, which facilitates a huge number of outcomes, is then compared to a fully dynamic decision policy, requiring fewer outcomes. We present results from solving the model. Basically we find that the insurance company is likely to prefer accurate representation of uncertainties. In order to accomplish this, it will accept to calculate its current portfolio using parameterized decision rules.     

Dynamics analysis and numerical simulations of a stochastic non-autonomous predator–prey system with impulsive effects

In this paper, we propose a stochastic non-autonomous Lotka–Volterra predator–prey model with impulsive effects and investigate its stochastic dynamics. We first prove that the subsystem of the system has a unique periodic solution which is globally attractive. Furthermore, we obtain the threshold value in the mean which governs the stochastic persistence and the extinction of the prey–predator system. Our results show that the stochastic noises and impulsive perturbations have crucial effects on the persistence and extinction of each species. Finally, we use the different stochastic noises and impulsive effects parameters to provide a series of numerical simulations to illustrate the analytical results.     

On distributionally robust multiperiod stochastic optimization

This paper considers model uncertainty for multistage stochastic programs. The data and information structure of the baseline model is a tree, on which the decision problem is defined. We consider “ambiguity neighborhoods” around this tree as alternative models which are close to the baseline model. Closeness is defined in terms of a distance for probability trees, called the nested distance. This distance is appropriate for scenario models of multistage stochastic optimization problems as was demonstrated in Pflug and Pichler (SIAM J Optim 22:1–23, 2012). The ambiguity model is formulated as a minimax problem, where the the optimal decision is to be found, which minimizes the maximal objective function within the ambiguity set. We give a setup for studying saddle point properties of the minimax problem. Moreover, we present solution algorithms for finding the minimax decisions at least asymptotically. As an example, we consider a multiperiod stochastic production/inventory control problem with weekly ordering. The stochastic scenario process is given by the random demands for two products. We determine the minimax solution and identify the worst trees within the ambiguity set. It turns out that the probability weights of the worst case trees are concentrated on few very bad scenarios.     

Extinction and periodic oscillations in an age-structured population model in a patchy environment

We consider an age-structured single-species population model in a patch environment consisting of infinitely many patches. Previous work shows that if the nonlinear birth rate is sufficiently large and the maturation time is small, then the model exhibits the usual transition from the trivial equilibrium to the positive (spatially homogeneous) equilibrium represented by a traveling wavefront. Here we show that (i) if the birth rate is so small that a patch alone cannot sustain a positive equilibrium then the whole population in the patchy environment will become extinct, and (ii) if the birth rate is large enough that each patch can sustain a positive equilibrium and if the maturation time is moderate then the model exhibits nonlinear oscillations characterized by the occurrence of multiple periodic traveling waves.