具有常数输入的SEIR模型的稳定性分析

讨论了易感者类和潜伏者类均为常数输入,潜伏期、染病期和恢复期均具有传染力,且传染率为一般传染率的SEIR传染病模型.利用Hurwitz判据证明了地方病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性,进一步利用复合矩阵理论得到了地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件.     

一类具有常数输入和垂直传染的SIRI传染病模型

建立了一类易感者及染病者均有常数输入,疾病具有垂直传染以及一般形式饱和接触率的SIRI传染病模型,分别研究了p=0,0相似文献   

一类具密度制约SIS模型的全局稳定性和周期性

研究了一类具密度制约和双线性传染率的S IS传染病模型,考虑到了实际中对易感者和传染者的控制,得到了地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性和系统的周期性,并给出了生物学解释和仿真.     

染病者有常数输入的传染病模型

讨论在隔离措施下易感者和染病者都有常数移民的传染病模型.给出了模型的地方病平衡点,证明了地方病平衡点的稳定性.     

具有阶段结构的SIR传染病模型

研究了一类具有阶段结构的SIR传染病模型，在模型中假设种群分幼年和成年两个阶段，且只有成年种群染病，并且采用与成年易感者数量有关的一般非线性传染率，得到了系统解的有界性及无病平衡点和地方病平衡点存在的条件．通过对平衡点对应的特征方程的讨论得到了平衡点局部渐近稳定的条件，同时证明了平衡点的全局渐近稳定性，并对结论进行了数值模拟．     

考虑环境因素的血吸虫传染病模型

研究了环境制约条件下人体内血吸虫传染的数学模型,分析了人体内易感细菌、受传染细菌和环境污染水平的变化规律,对模型进行了定性和稳定性分析,讨论了模型无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在条件,得到了各个平衡点渐近稳定的充分条件.结合实际血吸虫病感染数据,对模型进行数值模拟,并绘制出模型的变化趋势图.     

一类具有垂直传染与接种的DS—I—R传染病模型研究

本文研究了-类具有垂直传染与接种的疾病在多个易感群体中传播的DS-I-R传染病模型,得到了疾病流行的阈值.运用微分方程定性与稳定性理论分析了无病平衡点的局部稳定与全局渐近稳定性及存在唯一地方病平衡点与其全局渐近稳定性.     

一类带有种群迁移的SIS传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设同一地区内易感者和染病者具有相同的迁移率系数,建立了一类两地区间种群迁移的SIS传染病模型,得到了地方病平衡点存在的阈值条件,并借助比较定理和极限系统理论证明了无病平衡点和疾病不导致死亡时地方病平衡点的全局稳定性,最后讨论了种群迁移对传染病传播的影响.     

非线性疾病信息影响的随机传染病模型研究

提出并分析了非线性疾病信息影响的确定性模型和随机性模型,并研究了随机噪声对确定性模型的影响.将易感人群划分为两类,无疾病信息意识的易感者和有疾病信息意识的易感者,并求得确定性系统的无病平衡点和地方病平衡点,得出基本再生数的表达式和平衡点稳定的条件,进一步探讨了随机扰动如何来影响疾病的灭绝,得出新的阈值R_0~S.最后,选用合理的参数进行了数值模拟来论证结果的正确性.     

一类具有垂直传播的捕食传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设捕食系统中疾病只在捕食者种群中传播,被传染的易感者经过一段潜伏期后才具有传染性,染病者康复后对该病具有永久免疫力,建立了一类具有垂直传播的捕食系统的传染病模型(SEIR),运用极限系统理论,分两种情形讨论了系统平衡点的存在性及局部稳定性,利用Liapunov函数和二次复合矩阵等方法,得到了平衡点全局渐近稳定的条件.     

离散的SI和SIS传染病模型的研究

为了描述个体的死亡、染病者的恢复以及疾病的传染,引入了相应的概率.基于总种群中个体数量为常数的假设,根据染病者能否恢复分别建立了具有生命动力学的离散SI和SIS传染病模型.所得到的结果显示:它们具有与相应连续模型相同的动力学性态,并确定了各自的阈值.在它们的阈值之下,传染病最终将灭绝;在它们的阈值之上,传染病将会发展成为地方病,染病者的数量将趋向于一确定的正常数.     

Modelling the effect of tuberculosis on the spread of HIV infection in a population with density-dependent birth and death rate

A nonlinear mathematical model is proposed to study the effect of tuberculosis on the spread of HIV infection in a logistically growing human population. The host population is divided into four sub classes of susceptibles, TB infectives, HIV infectives (with or without TB) and that of AIDS patients. The model exhibits four equilibria namely, a disease free, HIV free, TB free and an endemic equilibrium. The model has been studied qualitatively using stability theory of nonlinear differential equations and computer simulation. We have found a threshold parameter R₀ which is if less than one, the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable otherwise for R₀>1, at least one of the infections will be present in the population. It is shown that the positive endemic equilibrium is always locally stable but it may become globally stable under certain conditions showing that the disease becomes endemic. It is found that as the number of TB infectives decreases due to recovery, the number of HIV infectives also decreases and endemic equilibrium tends to TB free equilibrium. It is also observed that number of AIDS individuals decreases if TB is not associated with HIV infection. A numerical study of the model is also performed to investigate the influence of certain key parameters on the spread of the disease.     

Modeling the spread of an infectious disease with bacteria and carriers in the environment

An SIS model with immigration for the spread of an infectious disease with bacteria and carriers in the environment is proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that susceptibles get infected directly by infectives as well as by their contacts with bacteria discharged by infectives in the environment. The growth rate of density of bacteria is assumed to be proportional to the density of infectives and decreases naturally as well as by bacterial interactions with susceptibles and carriers. The carrier population density is considered to follow the logistic model and grows due to conducive human population density related factors. It is assumed further that the number of bacteria transported by carriers to susceptibles is proportional to densities of both bacteria and carriers. The model study shows that the spread of the infectious disease increases due to growth of bacteria and carriers in the environment and disease becomes more endemic due to immigration.     

Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with standard incidence rate and treatment rate

An epidemic model with standard incidence rate and treatment rate of infectious individuals is proposed to understand the effect of the capacity for treatment of infectives on the disease spread. It is assumed that treatment rate is proportional to the numbers of infectives below the capacity and is a constant when the number of infectives is greater than the capacity. It is proved that the existence and stability of equilibria for the model is not only related to the basic reproduction number but also the capacity for treatment of infectives. It is found that a backward bifurcation occurs if the capacity is small. It is also found that there exist bistable endemic equilibria if the capacity is low.     

A nonlinear AIDS epidemic model with screening and time delay

A nonlinear mathematical model to study the effect of time delay in the recruitment of infected persons on the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS is proposed and analyzed. In modeling the dynamics, the population is divided into four subclasses: the susceptibles, the HIV positives or infectives that do not know they are infected, the HIV positives that know they are infected and the AIDS patients. Susceptibles are assumed to become infected via sexual contacts with (both types of) infectives. The model is analyzed using stability theory of delay differential equations. Both the disease-free and the endemic equilibria are found and their stability is investigated. It is shown that the introduction of time delay in the model has a destabilizing effect on the system and periodic solutions can arise by Hopf bifurcation. Numerical simulations are also carried out to investigate the influence of key parameters on the spread of the disease, to support the analytical conclusion and to illustrate possible behavioral scenario of the model.     

A two-strain epidemic model with mutant strain and vaccination

In this paper, it is assumed that the spread of a pathogen can mutate in the host to create a second, cocirculating, mutant strain. Vaccinated individuals perhaps becomes infected after being in contact with individuals infected with mutant strain. A?two-strain epidemic model with vaccination is firstly investigated. The existence and stability properties of equilibria in this model are examined. By analyzing the characteristic equation and constructing Lyapunov functions, the conditions for local and global stability of the infection-free, boundary and endemic equilibria are established. The existence of Hopf bifurcation from the endemic equilibrium is also examined as this equilibrium loses its stability. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical simulations.     

Modelling and analysis of the spread of AIDS epidemic with immigration of HIV infectives

We propose and analyze, a nonlinear mathematical model of the spread of HIV/AIDS in a population of varying size with immigration of infectives. It is assumed that susceptibles become infected via sexual contacts with infectives (also assumed to be infectious) and all infectives ultimately develop AIDS. The model is studied using stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. Model dynamics is also discussed under two particular cases when there is no direct inflow of infectives. On analyzing these situations, it is found that the disease is always persistent if the direct immigration of infectives is allowed in the community. Further, in the absence of inflow of infectives, the endemicity of the disease is found to be higher if pre-AIDS individuals also interact sexually in comparison to the case when they do not take part in sexual interactions. Thus, if the direct immigration of infectives is restricted, the spread of infection can be slowed down. A numerical study of the model is also carried out to investigate the influence of certain key parameters on the spread of the disease.     

Modeling and analysis of effects of awareness programs by media on the spread of infectious diseases

In this paper, a non-linear mathematical model for the effects of awareness programs on the spread of infectious diseases such as flu has been proposed and analyzed. In the modeling process it is assumed that disease spreads due to the contact between susceptibles and infectives only. The growth rate of awareness programs impacting the population is assumed to be proportional to the number of infective individuals. It is further assumed that due to the effect of media, susceptible individuals form a separate class and avoid contact with the infectives. The model is analyzed by using stability theory of differential equations. The model analysis shows that the spread of an infectious disease can be controlled by using awareness programs but the disease remains endemic due to immigration. The simulation analysis of the model confirms the analytical results.     

A nonlinear HIV/AIDS model with contact tracing

A nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the effect of contact tracing on reducing the spread of HIV/AIDS in a homogeneous population with constant immigration of susceptibles. In modeling the dynamics, the population is divided into four subclasses of HIV negatives but susceptibles, HIV positives or infectives that do not know they are infected, HIV positives that know they are infected and that of AIDS patients. Susceptibles are assumed to become infected via sexual contacts with (both types of) infectives and all infectives move with constant rates to develop AIDS. The model is analyzed using the stability theory of differential equations and numerical simulation. The model analysis shows that contact tracing may be of immense help in reducing the spread of AIDS epidemic in a population. It is also found that the endemicity of infection is reduced when infectives after becoming aware of their infection do not take part in sexual interaction.     

GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF AN SEIR EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH IMMIGRATION OF DIFFERENT COMPARTMENTS

The SEIR epidemic model studied here includes constant inflows of new susceptibles, exposeds, infectives, and recovereds. This model also incorporates a population size dependent contact rate and a disease-related death. As the infected fraction cannot be eliminated from the population, this kind of model has only the unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable. Under the special case where the new members of immigration are all susceptible, the model considered here shows a threshold phenomenon and a sharp threshold has been obtained. In order to prove the global asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium, the authors introduce the change of variable, which can reduce our four-dimensional system to a three-dimensional asymptotical autonomous system with limit equation.