Estimation and econometric tests under price and output uncertainties

We extend the existing estimation methods to allow empirical estimation and hypothesis testing under simultaneous price and output uncertainty. Our approach modifies and expands the use of duality theory. Furthermore, our approach does not require the specification or estimation of the production/cost function. In addition, our approach does not require the assumption of the statistical independence between price and output. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multicriteria estimation of probabilities on basis of expert non-numeric,non-exact and non-complete knowledge

A new method of alternatives’ probabilities estimation under deficiency of expert numeric information (obtained from different sources) is proposed. The method is based on the Bayesian model of uncertainty randomization. Additional non-numeric, non-exact, and non-complete expert knowledge (NNN-knowledge, NNN-information) is used for final estimation of the alternatives’ probabilities. An illustrative example demonstrates the proposed method application to forecasting of oil shares price with the use of NNN-information obtained from different experts (investment firms).     

Modeling volatility and dependency of agricultural price and production indices of Thailand: Static versus time-varying copulas

Volatility and dependence structure are two main sources of uncertainty in many economic issues, such as exchange rates, future prices and agricultural product prices etc. who fully embody uncertainty among relationship and variation. This paper aims at estimating the dependency between the percentage changes of the agricultural price and agricultural production indices of Thailand and also their conditional volatilities using copula-based GARCH models. The motivation of this paper is twofold. First, the strategic department of agriculture of Thailand would like to have reliable empirical models for the dependency and volatilities for use in policy strategy. Second, this paper provides less restrictive models for dependency and the conditional volatility GARCH. The copula-based multivariate analysis used in this paper nested the traditional multivariate as a special case (Tae-Hwy and Xiangdong, 2009) [13]. Appropriate marginal distributions for both, the percentage changes of the agricultural price and agricultural production indices were selected for their estimation. Static as well as time varying copulas were estimated. The empirical results were found that the suitable margins were skew t distribution and the time varying copula i.e., the time varying rotate Joe copula (270°) was the choice for the policy makers to follow. The one-period ahead forecasted-growth rate of agricultural price index conditional on growth rate of agricultural production index was also provided as an example of forecasting it using the resulted margins and time-varying copula based GARCH model.     

Improved estimation of regression parameters in measurement error models

The problem of simultaneous estimation of the regression parameters in a multiple regression model with measurement errors is considered when it is suspected that the regression parameter vector may be the null-vector with some degree of uncertainty. In this regard, we propose two sets of four estimators, namely, (i) the unrestricted estimator, (ii) the preliminary test estimator, (iii) the Stein-type estimator and (iv) the postive-rule Stein-type estimator. In an asymptotic setup, properties of these estimators are studied based on asymptotic distributional bias, MSE matrices, and risks under a quadratic loss function. In addition to the asymptotic dominance of the Stein-type estimators, the paper contains discussion of dominating confidence sets based on the Stein-type estimation. Asymptotic analysis is considered based on a sequence of local alternatives to obtain the desired results.     

Three-way analysis of imprecise data

Data are often affected by uncertainty. Uncertainty is usually referred to as randomness. Nonetheless, other sources of uncertainty may occur. In particular, the empirical information may also be affected by imprecision. Also in these cases it can be fruitful to analyze the underlying structure of the data. In this paper we address the problem of summarizing a sample of three-way imprecise data. In order to manage the different sources of uncertainty a twofold strategy is adopted. On the one hand, imprecise data are transformed into fuzzy sets by means of the so-called fuzzification process. The so-obtained fuzzy data are then analyzed by suitable generalizations of the Tucker3 and CANDECOMP/PARAFAC models, which are the two most popular three-way extensions of Principal Component Analysis. On the other hand, the statistical validity of the obtained underlying structure is evaluated by (nonparametric) bootstrapping. A simulation experiment is performed for assessing whether the use of fuzzy data is helpful in order to summarize three-way uncertain data. Finally, to show how our models work in practice, an application to real data is discussed.     

非指数分布数族参数的经验Bayes估计的收敛速度

在“平方损失”下,研究了非指数分布族参数θ的经验Bayes估计,首先利用概率密度函数的核估计,构造了位置参数的经验Bayes（EB）估计量,在适当的条件下获得了它的收敛速度．     

Lotka-Volterra模型参数的灰色估计法及其应用

基于灰色直接建模法,提出了估计Lotka-Volterra模型参数的一种方法,较好的反映了相互影响的两个变量之间的互惠、竞争等关系,为定性预测分析提供了实证支持,并得到了定量预测的结果.实例说明本模型的有效性和适用性.并证明了数乘交换不影响原始序列的模拟精度,为解决灰色预测模型的病态性提供了思路.     

Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach

This paper adopts a real options approach to analyze investment timing and capacity choice for renewable energy projects under different support schemes. The main purpose is to examine investment behavior under the most extensively employed support schemes, namely, feed-in tariffs and renewable energy certificate trading. We consider both multiple sources of uncertainty under each support scheme and uncertainty with respect to any change of support scheme, and we obtain both analytical (when possible) and numerical solutions. In a Nordic case study based on wind power, we find that the feed-in tariff encourages earlier investment. Nevertheless, as investment has been undertaken, renewable energy certificate trading creates incentives for larger projects. In our baseline scenario and taking the fixed feed-in tariff as a base, the revenue required to trigger investments is 61% higher with renewable certificates. At the same time, investment capacity is 61% higher.     

An exact minimum variance filter for a class of discrete time systems with random parameter perturbations

An exact, closed-form minimum variance filter is designed for a class of discrete time uncertain systems which allows for both multiplicative and additive noise sources. The multiplicative noise model includes a popular class of models (Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type models) in econometrics. The parameters of the system under consideration which describe the state transition are assumed to be subject to stochastic uncertainties. The problem addressed is the design of a filter that minimizes the trace of the estimation error variance. Sensitivity of the new filter to the size of parameter uncertainty, in terms of the variance of parameter perturbations, is also considered. We refer to the new filter as the ‘perturbed Kalman filter’ (PKF) since it reduces to the traditional (or unperturbed) Kalman filter as the size of stochastic perturbation approaches zero. We also consider a related approximate filtering heuristic for univariate time series and we refer to filter based on this heuristic as approximate perturbed Kalman filter (APKF). We test the performance of our new filters on three simulated numerical examples and compare the results with unperturbed Kalman filter that ignores the uncertainty in the transition equation. Through numerical examples, PKF and APKF are shown to outperform the traditional (or unperturbed) Kalman filter in terms of the size of the estimation error when stochastic uncertainties are present, even when the size of stochastic uncertainty is inaccurately identified.     

Technology choice under several uncertainty sources

We analyze a model of irreversible investment with two sources of uncertainty. A risk-neutral decision maker has the choice between two mutually exclusive projects under input price and output price uncertainty. We propose a complete study of the shape of the rational investment region and we prove that it is never optimal to invest when the alternative investments generate the same payoff independently of its size. A key feature of this bidimensional degree of uncertainty is thus that the payoff generated by each project is not a sufficient statistic to make a rational investment. In this context, our analysis provides a new motive for waiting to invest: the benefits associated with the dominance of one project over the other. As an illustration, we apply our methodology to power generation under uncertainty.     

Log-robust portfolio management with parameter ambiguity

We present a robust optimization approach to portfolio management under uncertainty when randomness is modeled using uncertainty sets for the continuously compounded rates of return, which empirical research argues are the true drivers of uncertainty, but the parameters needed to define the uncertainty sets, such as the drift and standard deviation, are not known precisely. Instead, a finite set of scenarios is available for the input data, obtained either using different time horizons or assumptions in the estimation process. Our objective is to maximize the worst-case portfolio value (over a set of allowable deviations of the uncertain parameters from their nominal values, using the worst-case nominal values among the possible scenarios) at the end of the time horizon in a one-period setting. Short sales are not allowed. We consider both the independent and correlated assets models. For the independent assets case, we derive a convex reformulation, albeit involving functions with singular Hessians. Because this slows computation times, we also provide lower and upper linear approximation problems and devise an algorithm that gives the decision maker a solution within a desired tolerance from optimality. For the correlated assets case, we suggest a tractable heuristic that uses insights derived in the independent assets case.     

Estimating the Distributions of Scan Statistics with High Precision

In many statistical applications one is concerned with the estimation of the distribution of the maximum or minimum number of points in a moving window of fixed length, called scan statistics. Scan statistics are also extremes of 1-dependent sequences. A result of Haiman (1999) provides approximations of these distributions together with sharp bounds for the corresponding errors. Applications concern the maximum cluster of points on a line or on a circle and multiple coverage by subintervals or subarcs of fixed size. We compare our method with some existing empirical and non empirical methods and show how it can be applied to multidimensional scanning     

Production decisions under joint price and production uncertainty

While production decisions in the presence of price uncertainty have been extensively studied, this is not so for the case in which the level of production is itself uncertain. In this paper,we provide a decision analysis under multiplicative production uncertainty, both with and without price uncertainty. We depict equilibrium and obtain comparative statics results with the aid of a diagram based on the difference between expected price and marginal cost. Comparative statics results are obtained for the model with production uncertainty alone and also for simultaneous price and production uncertainty (including two special cases). We first derive results based on the Arrow–Pratt coefficients of risk aversion, and then supplement these with the Ross measure of relative risk aversion, since this proves useful in the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty. We find that increases in risk (both price and production) or input prices reduce expected output. However, expected output supply is an increasing function of (expected) price only for “low” levels of risk aversion, and in general the relationship is ambiguous.     

R&D pipeline management: Task interdependencies and risk management

Maintaining a rich research and development (R&D) pipeline is the key to remaining competitive in many industrial sectors. Due to its nature, R&D activities are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, the modeling of which is compounded by the ability of the decision maker to alter the underlying process. In this paper, we present a multi-stage stochastic programming framework for R&D pipeline management, which demonstrates how essential considerations can be modeled in an efficient manner including: (i) the selection and scheduling of R&D tasks with general precedence constraints under pass/fail uncertainty, and (ii) resource planning decisions (expansion/contraction and outsourcing) for multiple resource types. Furthermore, we study interdependencies between tasks in terms of probability of success, resource usage and market impact. Finally, we explore risk management approaches, including novel formulations for value at risk and conditional value at risk.     

Linex损失下二维单边截断型分布族参数的经验Bayes估计

在linex损失函数下,讨论边二维单边截断型分布族参数的经验Bayes(EB)估计问题,文中构造了参数的EB估计,在适当的条件下给出了该估计的收敛速度。并说明在较强条件下收敛速度可充分接近1。     

Estimating returns to scale of Chinese airport airside activities using the CCR-0-objective RTS method

The returns to scale (RTS) nature of 41 Chinese airport airsides is investigated in this paper. We introduce take-off distance available and landing distance available into RTS estimation. To deal with the existence of multiple optimal solutions when estimating RTS using the CCR (Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes) RTS method in Data Envelopment Analysis, we introduce the CCR-0-objective RTS method. The empirical study shows that all those airsides with two runway operate under decreasing RTS. Those airsides with only one runway either show constant RTS or show increasing RTS.     

A new formulation of some discrete-time stochastic-parameter state estimation problems

Linear unbiased full-order state estimation problem for discrete-time models with stochastic parameters and additive finite energy type disturbance signals is reformulated in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Two estimation problems that are considered are the design for mean-square bounded estimation error and the design for the mean-square stochastic version of the suboptimal H_∞ estimator. These two designs are shown to apply to both the estimation with random sensor delay and estimation under observation uncertainty.     

Application of stochastic programming to reduce uncertainty in quality-based supply planning of slaughterhouses

To match products of different quality with end market preferences under supply uncertainty, it is crucial to integrate product quality information in logistics decision making. We present a case of this integration in a meat processing company that faces uncertainty in delivered livestock quality. We develop a stochastic programming model that exploits historical product quality delivery data to produce slaughterhouse allocation plans with reduced levels of uncertainty in received livestock quality. The allocation plans generated by this model fulfil demand for multiple quality features at separate slaughterhouses under prescribed service levels while minimizing transportation costs. We test the model on real world problem instances generated from a data set provided by an industrial partner. Results show that historical farmer delivery data can be used to reduce uncertainty in quality of animals to be delivered to slaughterhouses.     

两参数指数-威布尔分布形状参数的经验贝叶斯估计

研究了两参数指数-威布尔分布形状参数的经验贝叶斯(EB)估计问题,并假定当其中一个形状参数α已知时,给出了另一个形状参数θ在两种不同损失函数情况下的EB估计的表达式.并运用随机模拟方法,将两种不同损失函数下的EB估计进行了比较.