Short sales in Log-robust portfolio management

This paper extends the Log-robust portfolio management approach to the case with short sales, i.e., the case where the manager can sell shares he does not yet own. We model the continuously compounded rates of return, which have been established in the literature as the true drivers of uncertainty, as uncertain parameters belonging to polyhedral uncertainty sets, and maximize the worst-case portfolio wealth over that set in a one-period setting. The degree of the manager’s aversion to ambiguity is incorporated through a single, intuitive parameter, which determines the size of the uncertainty set. The presence of short-selling requires the development of problem-specific techniques, because the optimization problem is not convex. In the case where assets are independent, we show that the robust optimization problem can be solved exactly as a series of linear programming problems; as a result, the approach remains tractable for large numbers of assets. We also provide insights into the structure of the optimal solution. In the case of correlated assets, we develop and test a heuristic where correlation is maintained only between assets invested in. In computational experiments, the proposed approach exhibits superior performance to that of the traditional robust approach.     

Portfolio optimization with an envelope-based multi-objective evolutionary algorithm

The problem of portfolio selection is a standard problem in financial engineering and has received a lot of attention in recent decades. Classical mean–variance portfolio selection aims at simultaneously maximizing the expected return of the portfolio and minimizing portfolio variance. In the case of linear constraints, the problem can be solved efficiently by parametric quadratic programming (i.e., variants of Markowitz’ critical line algorithm). However, there are many real-world constraints that lead to a non-convex search space, e.g., cardinality constraints which limit the number of different assets in a portfolio, or minimum buy-in thresholds. As a consequence, the efficient approaches for the convex problem can no longer be applied, and new solutions are needed.In this paper, we propose to integrate an active set algorithm optimized for portfolio selection into a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA). The idea is to let the MOEA come up with some convex subsets of the set of all feasible portfolios, solve a critical line algorithm for each subset, and then merge the partial solutions to form the solution of the original non-convex problem. We show that the resulting envelope-based MOEA significantly outperforms existing MOEAs.     

Robust ranking and portfolio optimization

The portfolio optimization problem has attracted researchers from many disciplines to resolve the issue of poor out-of-sample performance due to estimation errors in the expected returns. A practical method for portfolio construction is to use assets’ ordering information, expressed in the form of preferences over the stocks, instead of the exact expected returns. Due to the fact that the ranking itself is often described with uncertainty, we introduce a generic robust ranking model and apply it to portfolio optimization. In this problem, there are n objects whose ranking is in a discrete uncertainty set. We want to find a weight vector that maximizes some generic objective function for the worst realization of the ranking. This robust ranking problem is a mixed integer minimax problem and is very difficult to solve in general. To solve this robust ranking problem, we apply the constraint generation method, where constraints are efficiently generated by solving a network flow problem. For empirical tests, we use post-earnings-announcement drifts to obtain ranking uncertainty sets for the stocks in the DJIA index. We demonstrate that our robust portfolios produce smaller risk compared to their non-robust counterparts.     

A Review on Ambiguity in Stochastic Portfolio Optimization

In mean-risk portfolio optimization, it is typically assumed that the assets follow a known distribution P ₀, which is estimated from observed data. Aiming at an investment strategy which is robust against possible misspecification of P ₀, the portfolio selection problem is solved with respect to the worst-case distribution within a Wasserstein-neighborhood of P ₀. We review tractable formulations of the portfolio selection problem under model ambiguity, as it is called in the literature. For instance, it is known that high model ambiguity leads to equally-weighted portfolio diversification. However, it often happens that the marginal distributions of the assets can be estimated with high accuracy, whereas the dependence structure between the assets remains ambiguous. This leads to the problem of portfolio selection under dependence uncertainty. We show that in this case portfolio concentration becomes optimal as the uncertainty with respect to the estimated dependence structure increases. Hence, distributionally robust portfolio optimization can have two very distinct implications: Diversification on the one hand and concentration on the other hand.     

An exact solution to a robust portfolio choice problem with multiple risk measures under ambiguous distribution

This paper proposes a unified framework to solve distributionally robust mean-risk optimization problem that simultaneously uses variance, value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) as a triple-risk measure. It provides investors with more flexibility to find portfolios in the sense that it allows investors to optimize a return-risk profile in the presence of estimation error. We derive a closed-form expression for the optimal portfolio strategy to the robust mean-multiple risk portfolio selection model under distribution and mean return ambiguity (RMP). Specially, the robust mean-variance, robust maximum return, robust minimum VaR and robust minimum CVaR efficient portfolios are all special instances of RMP portfolios. We analytically and numerically show that the resulting portfolio weight converges to the minimum variance portfolio when the level of ambiguity aversion is in a high value. Using numerical experiment with simulated data, we demonstrate that our robust portfolios under ambiguity are more stable over time than the non-robust portfolios.     

Support vector machine classifiers with uncertain knowledge sets via robust optimization

In this article we study support vector machine (SVM) classifiers in the face of uncertain knowledge sets and show how data uncertainty in knowledge sets can be treated in SVM classification by employing robust optimization. We present knowledge-based SVM classifiers with uncertain knowledge sets using convex quadratic optimization duality. We show that the knowledge-based SVM, where prior knowledge is in the form of uncertain linear constraints, results in an uncertain convex optimization problem with a set containment constraint. Using a new extension of Farkas' lemma, we reformulate the robust counterpart of the uncertain convex optimization problem in the case of interval uncertainty as a convex quadratic optimization problem. We then reformulate the resulting convex optimization problems as a simple quadratic optimization problem with non-negativity constraints using the Lagrange duality. We obtain the solution of the converted problem by a fixed point iterative algorithm and establish the convergence of the algorithm. We finally present some preliminary results of our computational experiments of the method.     

An Interior-Point Method for a Class of Saddle-Point Problems

We present a polynomial-time interior-point algorithm for a class of nonlinear saddle-point problems that involve semidefiniteness constraints on matrix variables. These problems originate from robust optimization formulations of convex quadratic programming problems with uncertain input parameters. As an application of our approach, we discuss a robust formulation of the Markowitz portfolio selection model.     

Robust optimization and portfolio selection: The cost of robustness

Robust optimization is a tractable alternative to stochastic programming particularly suited for problems in which parameter values are unknown, variable and their distributions are uncertain. We evaluate the cost of robustness for the robust counterpart to the maximum return portfolio optimization problem. The uncertainty of asset returns is modelled by polyhedral uncertainty sets as opposed to the earlier proposed ellipsoidal sets. We derive the robust model from a min-regret perspective and examine the properties of robust models with respect to portfolio composition. We investigate the effect of different definitions of the bounds on the uncertainty sets and show that robust models yield well diversified portfolios, in terms of the number of assets and asset weights.     

A model of distributionally robust two-stage stochastic convex programming with linear recourse

We consider distributionally robust two-stage stochastic convex programming problems, in which the recourse problem is linear. Other than analyzing these new models case by case for different ambiguity sets, we adopt a unified form of ambiguity sets proposed by Wiesemann, Kuhn and Sim, and extend their analysis from a single stochastic constraint to the two-stage stochastic programming setting. It is shown that under a standard set of regularity conditions, this class of problems can be converted to a conic optimization problem. Numerical results are presented to show the efficiency of the distributionally robust approach.     

Portfolio optimization with linear and fixed transaction costs

We consider the problem of portfolio selection, with transaction costs and constraints on exposure to risk. Linear transaction costs, bounds on the variance of the return, and bounds on different shortfall probabilities are efficiently handled by convex optimization methods. For such problems, the globally optimal portfolio can be computed very rapidly. Portfolio optimization problems with transaction costs that include a fixed fee, or discount breakpoints, cannot be directly solved by convex optimization. We describe a relaxation method which yields an easily computable upper bound via convex optimization. We also describe a heuristic method for finding a suboptimal portfolio, which is based on solving a small number of convex optimization problems (and hence can be done efficiently). Thus, we produce a suboptimal solution, and also an upper bound on the optimal solution. Numerical experiments suggest that for practical problems the gap between the two is small, even for large problems involving hundreds of assets. The same approach can be used for related problems, such as that of tracking an index with a portfolio consisting of a small number of assets.     

凸概率密度分布簇下的多损失鲁棒优化等价模型及在直营连锁企业中的应用

首先,证明了凸概率密度分布簇的单周期期望均值下单损失鲁棒优化等价模型定理,以及凸概率密度分布簇的单周期期望均值下多损失鲁棒优化等价模型。然后,提出了直营连锁企业的产品在凸概率密度分布簇下的期望均值的单周期生产分配供应问题,建立了直营连锁企业的单周期生产分配供应期望均值鲁棒模型,在获得近似周期概率分布簇情形下给出了单周期生产分配供应鲁棒模型,这种近似鲁棒模型等价于一个线性规划问题。最后,通过已知一个产品的4个周期构成的混合分布簇进行了数值实验,数值结果表明了期望均值准则下的生产分配供应鲁棒模型的生产分配供应策略更加稳健。     

Portfolio optimization under D.C. transaction costs and minimal transaction unit constraints

This paper addresses itself to a portfolio optimization problem under nonconvex transaction costs and minimal transaction unit constraints. Associated with portfolio construction is a fee for purchasing assets. Unit transaction fee is larger when the amount of transaction is smaller. Hence the transaction cost is usually a concave function up to certain point. When the amount of transaction increases, the unit price of assets increases due to illiquidity/market impact effects. Hence the transaction cost becomes convex beyond certain bound. Therefore, the net expected return becomes a general d.c. function (difference of two convex functions). We will propose a branch-and-bound algorithm for the resulting d.c. maximization problem subject to a constraint on the level of risk measured in terms of the absolute deviation of the rate of return of a portfolio. Also, we will show that the minimal transaction unit constraints can be incorporated without excessively increasing the amount of computation.     

Delegated portfolio management under ambiguity aversion

We examine the problem of setting optimal incentives for a portfolio manager hired by an investor who wants to induce ambiguity–robust portfolio choices with respect to estimation errors in expected returns. Adopting a worst-case max–min approach we obtain the optimal compensation in various cases where the investor and the manager, adopt or relinquish an ambiguity averse attitude. We also provide examples of applications to real market data.     

Portfolio optimization in a regime-switching market with derivatives

We consider the optimal asset allocation problem in a continuous-time regime-switching market. The problem is to maximize the expected utility of the terminal wealth of a portfolio that contains an option, an underlying stock and a risk-free bond. The difficulty that arises in our setting is finding a way to represent the return of the option by the returns of the stock and the risk-free bond in an incomplete regime-switching market. To overcome this difficulty, we introduce a functional operator to generate a sequence of value functions, and then show that the optimal value function is the limit of this sequence. The explicit form of each function in the sequence can be obtained by solving an auxiliary portfolio optimization problem in a single-regime market. And then the original optimal value function can be approximated by taking the limit. Additionally, we can also show that the optimal value function is a solution to a dynamic programming equation, which leads to the explicit forms for the optimal value function and the optimal portfolio process. Furthermore, we demonstrate that, as long as the current state of the Markov chain is given, it is still optimal for an investor in a multiple-regime market to simply allocate his/her wealth in the same way as in a single-regime market.     

Robust portfolio optimization with derivative insurance guarantees

Robust portfolio optimization aims to maximize the worst-case portfolio return given that the asset returns are allowed to vary within a prescribed uncertainty set. If the uncertainty set is not too large, the resulting portfolio performs well under normal market conditions. However, its performance may substantially degrade in the presence of market crashes, that is, if the asset returns materialize far outside of the uncertainty set. We propose a novel robust optimization model for designing portfolios that include European-style options. This model trades off weak and strong guarantees on the worst-case portfolio return. The weak guarantee applies as long as the asset returns are realized within the prescribed uncertainty set, while the strong guarantee applies for all possible asset returns. The resulting model constitutes a convex second-order cone program, which is amenable to efficient numerical solution procedures. We evaluate the model using simulated and empirical backtests and analyze the impact of the insurance guarantees on the portfolio performance.     

Investment models based on clustered scenario trees

Stochastic programming is widely applied in financial decision problems. In particular, when we need to carry out the actual calculations for portfolio selection problems, we have to assign a value for each expected return and the associated conditional probability in advance. These estimated random parameters often rely on a scenario tree representing the distribution of the underlying asset returns. One of the drawbacks is that the estimated parameters may be deviated from the actual ones. Therefore, robustness is considered so as to cope with the issue of parameter inaccuracy. In view of this, we propose a clustered scenario-tree approach, which accommodates the parameter inaccuracy problem in the context of a scenario tree.     

A new class of alternative theorems for SOS-convex inequalities and robust optimization

In this paper, we present a new class of alternative theorems for SOS-convex inequality systems without any qualifications. This class of theorems provides an alternative equations in terms of sums of squares to the solvability of the given inequality system. A strong separation theorem for convex sets, described by convex polynomial inequalities, plays a key role in establishing the class of alternative theorems. Consequently, we show that the optimal values of various classes of robust convex optimization problems are equal to the optimal values of related semidefinite programming problems (SDPs) and so, the value of the robust problem can be found by solving a single SDP. The class of problems includes programs with SOS-convex polynomials under data uncertainty in the objective function such as uncertain quadratically constrained quadratic programs. The SOS-convexity is a computationally tractable relaxation of convexity for a real polynomial. We also provide an application of our theorem of the alternative to a multi-objective convex optimization under data uncertainty.     

A multi-objective genetic algorithm for cardinality constrained fuzzy portfolio selection

This paper presents a new procedure that extends genetic algorithms from their traditional domain of optimization to fuzzy ranking strategy for selecting efficient portfolios of restricted cardinality. The uncertainty of the returns on a given portfolio is modeled using fuzzy quantities and a downside risk function is used to describe the investor's aversion to risk. The fitness functions are based both on the value and the ambiguity of the trapezoidal fuzzy number which represents the uncertainty on the return. The soft-computing approach allows us to consider uncertainty and vagueness in databases and also to incorporate subjective characteristics into the portfolio selection problem. We use a data set from the Spanish stock market to illustrate the performance of our approach to the portfolio selection problem.     

DC approach to weakly convex optimization and nonconvex quadratic optimization problems

Motivated by weakly convex optimization and quadratic optimization problems, we first show that there is no duality gap between a difference of convex (DC) program over DC constraints and its associated dual problem. We then provide certificates of global optimality for a class of nonconvex optimization problems. As an application, we derive characterizations of robust solutions for uncertain general nonconvex quadratic optimization problems over nonconvex quadratic constraints.