TIME INCONSISTENCY AND REPUTATION IN MONETARY POLICY： A STRATEGIC MODELLING IN CONTINUOUS TIME

This article develops a model to examine the equilibrium behavior of the time inconsistency problem in a continuous time economy with stochastic and endogenized distortion. First, the authors introduce the notion of sequentially rational equilibrium, and show that the time inconsistency problem may be solved with trigger reputation strategies for stochastic setting. The conditions for the existence of sequentially rational equilibrium are provided. Then, the concept of sequentially rational stochastically stable equilibrium is introduced. The authors compare the relative stability between the cooperative behavior and uncooperative behavior, and show that the cooperative equilibrium in this monetary policy game is a sequentially rational stochastically stable equilibrium and the uncooperative equilibrium is sequentially rational stochastically unstable equilibrium. In the long run, the zero inflation monetary policies are inherently more stable than the discretion rules, and once established, they tend to persist for longer periods of the time.     

Stochastic SIRS model under regime switching

We propose a new stochastic SIRS model under regime switching in which both white and color environmental noises are taken into account. We show that white noise suppresses explosions in the model and the disease-free equilibrium of the model is stochastically asymptotically stable under certain conditions. Moreover, we show that the model is stochastically ultimately bounded and the moment average in time of the model solution is bounded. An example illustrates the boundedness of the moment average in time of the model solution.     

Improved H∞ performance analysis of uncertain Markovian jump systems with overlapping time‐varying delays

In this article, we study the problem of robust H_∞ performance analysis for a class of uncertain Markovian jump systems with mixed overlapping delays. Our aim is to present a new delay‐dependent approach such that the resulting closed‐loop system is stochastically stable and satisfies a prescribed H_∞ performance level χ. The jumping parameters are modeled as a continuous‐time, finite‐state Markov chain. By constructing new Lyapunov‐Krasovskii functionals, some novel sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the stochastic stability of the equilibrium point in the mean‐square. Numerical examples show that the obtained results in this article is less conservative and more effective. The results are also compared with the existing results to show its conservativeness. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 460–477, 2016     

Confidence domain in the stochastic competition chemostat model with feedback control

This paper studies a stochastically forced chemostat model with feedback control in which two organisms compete for a single growth-limiting substrate. In the deterministic counterpart, previous researches show that the coexistence of two competing organisms may be achieved as a stable positive equilibrium or a stable positive periodic solution by different feedback schedules. In the stochastic case, based on the stochastic sensitivity function technique,we construct the confidence domains for different feedback schedules which allow us to find the configurational arrangements of the stochastic attractors and analyze the dispersion of the random states of the stochastic model.     

Asymptotic behavior of a Lotka–Volterra food chain stochastic model in the Chemostat

This article studies the asymptotic behavior of a stochastic Chemostat model with Lotka–Volterra food chain in which the dilution rate was influenced by white noise. The long-time behavior of the model is studied. Using Lyapunov function and Itô's formula, we show that there is a unique positive solution to the system. Moreover, the sufficient conditions for some population dynamical properties including the boundedness in mean and the stochastically asymptotic stability of the washout equilibrium were obtained. Furthermore, we show how the solutions spiral around the predator-free equilibrium and the positive equilibrium of deterministic system. Besides, the existence of the stationary distribution is proved for the considered model. Numerical simulations are introduced finally to support the obtained results.     

Dynamics of spatial heterogeneity in a landfill with interacting phase densities – a stochastic analysis

A landfill represents a complex and dynamically evolving structure that can be stochastically perturbed by exogenous factors. Both thermodynamic (equilibrium) and time varying (non-steady state) properties of a landfill are affected by spatially heterogenous and nonlinear sub-processes that combine with constraining initial and boundary conditions arising from the associated surroundings. While multiple approaches have been made to model landfill statistics by incorporating spatially dependent parameters on the one hand (data based approach) and continuum dynamical mass-balance equations on the other (equation based modelling), practically no attempt has been made to amalgamate these two approaches while also incorporating inherent stochastically induced fluctuations affecting the process overall. In this article, we will implement a minimalist scheme of modelling the time evolution of a realistic three dimensional landfill through a reaction–diffusion based approach, focusing on the coupled interactions of four key variables – solid mass density, hydrolysed mass density, acetogenic mass density and methanogenic mass density, that themselves are stochastically affected by fluctuations, coupled with diffusive relaxation of the individual densities, in ambient surroundings. Our results indicate that close to the linearly stable limit, the large time steady state properties, arising out of a series of complex coupled interactions between the stochastically driven variables, are scarcely affected by the biochemical growth–decay statistics. Our results clearly show that an equilibrium landfill structure is primarily determined by the solid and hydrolysed mass densities only rendering the other variables as statistically “irrelevant” in this (large time) asymptotic limit. The other major implication of incorporation of stochasticity in the landfill evolution dynamics is in the hugely reduced production times of the plants that are now approximately 20–30 years instead of the previous deterministic model predictions of 50 years and above. The predictions from this stochastic model are in conformity with available experimental observations.     

Stochastic dynamics of an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment

Abstract

We investigate a stochastic HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment. The model allows for two stages of infection namely the asymptomatic phase and the symptomatic phase. We prove existence of global positive solutions. We show that the solutions are stochastically ultimately bounded and stochastically permanent. We also study asymptotic behaviour of the solution to the stochastic model around the disease-free equilibrium of the underlying deterministic model. Our theoretical results are illustrated by way of numerical simulations.     

Subgame Consistent Solutions for Cooperative Stochastic Dynamic Games

In cooperative games over time with uncertainty, a stringent condition (subgame consistency) is required for a dynamically stable solution. In particular, a cooperative solution is subgame consistent if an extension of the solution policy to a situation with a later starting time and any feasible state brought about by prior optimal behavior would remain optimal. This paper derives an analytically tractable payoff distribution procedure leading to the realization of subgame consistent solutions in cooperative stochastic dynamic games. This is the first time that subgame consistent solutions in discrete-time dynamic games under uncertainty are provided.     

STOCHASTIC SIRS MODEL DRIVEN BY LVY NOISE

The paper establishes two stochastic SIRS models with jumps to describe the spread of network virus by cyber war,terrorism and others.First,adding random perturbations proportionally to each variable,we get the dynamic properties around the positive equilibrium of the deterministic model and the conditions for persistence and extinction.Second,giving a random disturbance to endemic equilibrium,we get a stochastic system with jumps.By modifying the existing Lyapunov function,we prove the positive solution of the system is stochastically stable.     

基于强互惠理论的企业合作创新行为演化研究

基于强互惠理论构建了企业合作创新行为演化模型,将企业分成投机、纯合作与强互惠三种类型,对基本的演化博弈模型进行了分析,利用复制动态方程求出基本模型的两个演化稳定均衡解,并通过仿真方法对放松约束后的演化模型做进一步分析,发现了新的系统均衡状态并给出解释。研究结果表明:强互惠行为可以通过演化生成,并抑制企业合作创新中的投机行为,与其他两种类型企业共同发展,并形成企业合作创新系统的演化稳定均衡。研究结果为企业合作创新组织的管理提供了决策依据,同时有助于推动企业合作创新理论的深入发展。     

The golden rule when preferences are time inconsistent

We investigate the classical Ramsey problem of economic growth when the planner uses non-constant discounting. It is well-known that this leads to time inconsistency, so that optimal strategies are no longer implementable. We then define equilibrium strategies to be such that unilateral deviations occurring during a small time interval are penalized. Non-equilibrium strategies are not implementable, so only equilibrium strategies should be considered by a rational planner. We show that there exists such strategies which are (a) smooth, and (b) lead to stationary growth, as in the classical Ramsey model. Finally, we prove an existence and multiplicity result: for logarithmic utility and quasi-exponential discount, there is an interval I such that, for every k in I, there is an equilibrium strategy converging to k. We conclude by giving an example where the planner is led to non-constant discount rates by considerations of intergenerational equity.     

A mathematical framework for stochastic climate models

There has been a recent burst of activity in the atmosphere‐ocean sciences community in utilizing stable linear Langevin stochastic models for the unresolved degrees of freedom in stochastic climate prediction. Here a systematic mathematical strategy for stochastic climate modeling is developed, and some of the new phenomena in the resulting equations for the climate variables alone are explored. The new phenomena include the emergence of both unstable linear Langevin stochastic models for the climate mean variables and the need to incorporate both suitable nonlinear effects and multiplicative noise in stochastic models under appropriate circumstances. All of these phenomena are derived from a systematic self‐consistent mathematical framework for eliminating the unresolved stochastic modes that is mathematically rigorous in a suitable asymptotic limit. The theory is illustrated for general quadratically nonlinear equations where the explicit nature of the stochastic climate modeling procedure can be elucidated. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated for the truncated equations for barotropic flow with topography. Explicit concrete examples with the new phenomena are presented for the stochastically forced three‐mode interaction equations. The conjecture of Smith and Waleffe [Phys. Fluids 11 (1999), 1608–1622] for stochastically forced three‐wave resonant equations in a suitable regime of damping and forcing is solved as a byproduct of the approach. Examples of idealized climate models arising from the highly inhomogeneous equilibrium statistical mechanics for geophysical flows are also utilized to demonstrate self‐consistency of the mathematical approach with the predictions of equilibrium statistical mechanics. In particular, for these examples, the reduced stochastic modeling procedure for the climate variables alone is designed to reproduce both the climate mean and the energy spectrum of the climate variables. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Robust stochastic stability and H∞ performance for a class of uncertain impulsive stochastic systems

In this paper, we discuss the problem of robust stochastic stability and H_∞ performance for a class of uncertain impulsive stochastic systems under sampled measurements. The parameter uncertainties are assumed to be time-varying and value-bounded. We give a sufficient condition in terms of certain linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) to guarantee the uncertain impulsive stochastic system to be robustly stochastically stable. Furthermore, we discuss a stochastically stable filter, using the locally sampled measurements, which ensures both the stochastic stability and a prescribed level of H_∞ performance for the filtering error system for all admissible uncertainties. We give a sufficient condition for the existence of such a filter and an explicit expression of a desired filter if relevant conditions are satisfied.     

Stochastic Kolmogorov-type system with infinite delay

The paper considers a stochastic functional Kolmogorov-type population system with infinite delay under the general probability measures. Main aim is to show that the environment noise will not only suppress a potential population explosion but also make the solution be stochastically ultimately bounded and asymptotic stable. Moreover, two stochastic functional Lotka-Volterra equations as examples are provided to illustrate the main results.     

Novel robust stability criteria for uncertain stochastic Hopfield neural networks with time-varying delays

The problem of stochastic robust stability of a class of stochastic Hopfield neural networks with time-varying delays and parameter uncertainties is investigated in this paper. The parameter uncertainties are time-varying and norm-bounded. The time-delay factors are unknown and time-varying with known bounds. Based on Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional and stochastic analysis approaches, some new stability criteria are presented in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) to guarantee the delayed neural network to be robustly stochastically asymptotically stable in the mean square for all admissible uncertainties. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness and less conservativeness of the developed techniques.     

CONVERGENCE TO TRAP ALMOST EVERYWHERE FOR FLOWS GENERATED BY COOPERATIVE AND IRREDUCIBLE VECTOR FIELDS

This paper is concerned with the asymptotic behavior of cooperative systems in $W\subset R^n$. For a $C^2$ cooperative system whose Jacobian matrices are irreducible, it is proved that the forward orbit converges to an equilibrium for almost every point having compact forward orbit closure and the set of all points which have compact forward orbit closures and do not converge to a semi-asymptotically stable equilibrium is meager in W if the equilibrium set cannot contain a simply ordered curve. The invariant function and the geometry of the stable manifold of an unstable equilibrium are considered.     

On Robust stability of singular systems with random abrupt changes

This paper deals with the class of continuous-time singular linear systems with Markovian switching. Sufficient conditions on stochastic stability and robust stochastic stability are developed in the LMI setting. The developed sufficient conditions are used to check if either the nominal or the uncertain systems are regular, impulse-free and stochastically stable or robust stochastically stable.     

POPULATION EXTINCTION IN DETERMINISTICAND STOCHASTIC DISCRETE‐TIME EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH PERIODIC COEFFICIENTS WITH APPLICATIONS TO AMPHIBIAN POPULATIONS

ABSTRACT. Discrete‐time deterministic and stochastic epidemic models are formulated for the spread of disease in a structured host population. The models have applications to a fungal pathogen affecting amphibian populations. The host population is structured according to two developmental stages, juveniles and adults. The juvenile stage is a post‐metamorphic, nonreproductive stage, whereas the adult stage is reproductive. Each developmental stage is further subdivided according to disease status, either susceptible or infected. There is no recovery from disease. Each year is divided into a fixed number of periods, the first period represents a time of births and the remaining time periods there are no births, only survival within a stage, transition to another stage or transmission of infection. Conditions are derived for population extinction and for local stability of the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. It is shown that high transmission rates can destabilize the disease‐free equilibrium and low survival probabilities can lead to population extinction. Numerical simulations illustrate the dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models.     

Monitoring cooperative equilibria in a stochastic differential game

This paper deals with a class of equilibria which are based on the use of memory strategies in the context of continuous-time stochastic differential games. In order to get interpretable results, we will focus the study on a stochastic differential game model of the exploitation of one species of fish by two competing fisheries. We explore the possibility of defining a so-called cooperative equilibrium, which will implement a fishing agreement. In order to obtain that equilibrium, one defines a monitoring variable and an associated retaliation scheme. Depending on the value of the monitoring variable, which provides some evidence of a deviation from the agreement, the probability increases that the mode of a game will change from a cooperative to a punitive one. Both the monitoring variable and the parameters of this jump process are design elements of the cooperative equilibrium. A cooperative equilibrium designed in this way is a solution concept for a switching diffusion game. We solve that game using the sufficient conditions for a feedback equilibrium which are given by a set of coupled HJB equations. A numerical analysis, approximating the solution of the HJB equations through an associated Markov game, enables us to show that there exist cooperative equilibria which dominate the classical feedback Nash equilibrium of the original diffusion game model.This research was supported by FNRS-Switzerland, NSERC-Canada, FCAR-Quebec.     

On finding curb sets in extensive games

We characterize strategy sets that are closed under rational behavior (curb) in extensive games of perfect information and finite horizon. It is shown that any such game possesses only one minimal curb set, which necessarily includes all its subgame perfect Nash equilibria. Applications of this result are twofold. First, it lessens computational burden while computing minimal curb sets. Second, it implies that the profile of subgame perfect equilibrium strategies is always stochastically stable in a certain class of games.I am grateful to J. Kamphorst, G. van der Laan and X. Tieman, who commented on the earlier versions of the paper. I also thank an anonymous referee and an associate editor for their helpful remarks. The usual disclaimer applies.