Breast cancer prediction using the isotonic separation technique

A recently developed data separation/classification method, called isotonic separation, is applied to breast cancer prediction. Two breast cancer data sets, one with clean and sufficient data and the other with insufficient data, are used for the study and the results are compared against those of decision tree induction methods, linear programming discrimination methods, learning vector quantization, support vector machines, adaptive boosting, and other methods. The experiment results show that isotonic separation is a viable and useful tool for data classification in the medical domain.     

A novel hybrid decomposition-ensemble model based on VMD and HGWO for container throughput forecasting

This paper built a hybrid decomposition-ensemble model named VMD-ARIMA-HGWO-SVR for the purpose of improving the stability and accuracy of container throughput prediction. The latest variational mode decomposition (VMD) algorithm is employed to decompose the original series into several modes (components), then ARIMA models are built to forecast the low-frequency components, and the high-frequency components are predicted by SVR models which are optimized with a recently proposed swarm intelligence algorithm called hybridizing grey wolf optimization (HGWO), following this, the prediction results of all modes are ensembled as the final forecasting result. The error analysis and model comparison results show that the VMD is more effective than other decomposition methods such as CEEMD and WD, moreover, adopting ARIMA models for prediction of low-frequency components can yield better results than predicting all components by SVR models. Based on the results of empirical study, the proposed model has good prediction performance on container throughput data, which can be used in practical work to provide reference for the operation and management of ports to improve the overall efficiency and reduce the operation costs.     

我国固定资产投资的ARIMA模型分析与预测

本文综合运用了时间序列预测方法,对我国固定资产投资总额进行了分析,建立了自回归求积移动模型ARIMA（4,1,4）。检验结果表明,该模型提供了较好的顸测结果,可为我国全社会固定资产投资提供可靠的参考数据。     

Smoothed estimates for models with random coefficients and infinite variance innovations

Infinite variance processes have attracted growing interest in recent years due to its applications in many areas of statistics (see [1] and references therein). For example, ARIMA time-series models with infinite variance innovations are widely used in financial modelling. However, a little attention has been paid to incorporate infinite variance innovations for time-series models with random coefficients introduced by [2]. This paper considers the problem of nonparametric estimation for some time-series models using the smoothed least absolute deviation (SLAD) estimating function approach. We introduce a class of kernels in order to smooth the LAD estimators. It is also shown that this new SLAD estimators are superior than some existing ones.     

Analysis of event-based, single-server nonstationary simulation responses using classical time-series models

In this article, we present a metamodeling methodology for analyzing event-based, single-server nonstationary simulation responses that is based on the use of classical ARIMA (or SARIMA) time-series models. Some analytical results are derived for a Markovian queue and are used to evaluate the proposed methodology. The use of the corresponding procedure is illustrated on a traffic example from the simulation literature. Some conclusions are drawn and recommendations for further work are stated.     

Adaptive neural network model for time-series forecasting

In this study, a novel adaptive neural network (ADNN) with the adaptive metrics of inputs and a new mechanism for admixture of outputs is proposed for time-series prediction. The adaptive metrics of inputs can solve the problems of amplitude changing and trend determination, and avoid the over-fitting of networks. The new mechanism for admixture of outputs can adjust forecasting results by the relative error and make them more accurate. The proposed ADNN method can predict periodical time-series with a complicated structure. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the auto-regression (AR), artificial neural network (ANN), and adaptive k-nearest neighbors (AKN) models. The ADNN model is proved to benefit from the merits of the ANN and the AKN through its’ novel structure with high robustness particularly for both chaotic and real time-series predictions.     

Feature Selection using Fuzzy Support Vector Machines

The feature selection consists of obtaining a subset of these features to optimally realize the task without the irrelevant ones. Since it can provide faster and cost-effective learning machines and also improve the prediction performance of the predictors, it is a crucial step in machine learning. The feature selection methods using support machines have obtained satisfactory results, but the noises and outliers often reduce the performance. In this paper, we propose a feature selection approach using fuzzy support vector machines and compare it with the previous work, the results of experiments on the UCI data sets show that feature selection using fuzzy SVM obtains better results than using SVM.     

Architecture for development of adaptive on-line prediction models

This work presents an architecture for the development of on-line prediction models. The architecture defines unified modular environment based on three concepts from machine learning, these are: (i) ensemble methods, (ii) local learning, and (iii) meta learning. The three concepts are organised in a three layer hierarchy within the architecture. For the actual prediction making any data-driven predictive method such as artificial neural network, support vector machines, etc. can be implemented and plugged in. In addition to the predictive methods, data pre-processing methods can also be implemented as plug-ins. Models developed according to the architecture can be trained and operated in different modes. With regard to the training, the architecture supports the building of initial models based on a batch of training data, but if this data is not available the models can also be trained in incremental mode. In a scenario where correct target values are (occasionally) available during the run-time, the architecture supports life-long learning by providing several adaptation mechanisms across the three hierarchical levels. In order to demonstrate its practicality, we show how the issues of current soft sensor development and maintenance can be effectively dealt with by using the architecture as a construction plan for the development of adaptive soft sensing algorithms.     

基于模糊Adaboost算法的支持向量回归机

针对单一支持向量回归机预测精度不十分良好的问题，结合Adaboost算法以及引入隶属函数，提出了一个基于模糊Aaboost算法的支持向量回归机模型。将该模型应用于金融时间序列预测问题的实验表明，预测精度有一定的提高，从而说明了该模型的有效性和可行性。     

Prediction of work-related accidents according to working conditions using support vector machines

Support vector machines (SVMs), which are a kind of statistical learning methods, were applied in this research work to predict occupational accidents with success. In the first place, semi-parametric principal component analysis (SPPCA) was used in order to perform a dimensional reduction, but no satisfactory results were obtained. Next, a dimensional reduction was carried out using an innovative and intelligent computing regression algorithm known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model with good results. The variables selected as important by the previous MARS model were taken as input variables for a SVM model. This SVM technique was able to classify, according to their working conditions, those workers that have suffered a work-related accident in the last 12 months and those that have not. SVM technique does not over-fit the experimental data and gives place to a better performance than back-propagation neural network models. Finally, the results and conclusions of this study are presented.     

A Case Study of the Residual-Based Cointegration Procedure

The study of long-run equilibrium processes is a significant component of economic and finance theory. The Johansen technique for identifying the existence of such long-run stationary equilibrium conditions among financial time series allows the identification of all potential linearly independent cointegrating vectors within a given system of eligible financial time series. The practical application of the technique may be restricted, however, by the pre-condition that the underlying data generating process fits a finite-order vector autoregression (VAR) model with white noise. This paper studies an alternative method for determining cointegrating relationships without such a precondition. The method is simple to implement through commonly available statistical packages. This 'residual-based cointegration' (RBC) technique uses the relationship between cointegration and univariate Box-Jenkins ARIMA models to identify cointegrating vectors through the rank of the covariance matrix of the residual processes which result from the fitting of univariate ARIMA models. The RBC approach for identifying multivariate cointegrating vectors is explained and then demonstrated through simulated examples. The RBC and Johansen techniques are then both implemented using several real-life financial time series.     

Parallel decomposition methods for linearly constrained problems subject to simple bound with application to the SVMs training

We consider the convex quadratic linearly constrained problem with bounded variables and with huge and dense Hessian matrix that arises in many applications such as the training problem of bias support vector machines. We propose a decomposition algorithmic scheme suitable to parallel implementations and we prove global convergence under suitable conditions. Focusing on support vector machines training, we outline how these assumptions can be satisfied in practice and we suggest various specific implementations. Extensions of the theoretical results to general linearly constrained problem are provided. We included numerical results on support vector machines with the aim of showing the viability and the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.     

基于支持向量机混合采样的不平衡数据分类方法

利用传统支持向量机(SVM)对不平衡数据进行分类时,由于真实的少数类支持向量样本过少且难以被识别,造成了分类时效果不是很理想.针对这一问题,提出了一种基于支持向量机混合采样的不平衡数据分类方法(BSMS).该方法首先对经过支持向量机分类的原始不平衡数据按照所处位置的不同划分为支持向量区(SV),多数类非支持向量区(MNSV)以及少数类非支持向量区(FNSV)三个区域,并对MNSV区和FNSV区的样本做去噪处理;然后对SV区分类错误和部分分类正确且靠近决策边界的少数类样本重复进行过采样处理,直到找到测试结果最优的训练数据集;最后有选择的随机删除MNSV区的部分样本.实验结果表明:方法优于其他采样方法.     

Multicategory classification via discrete support vector machines

Discrete support vector machines (DSVM), originally proposed for binary classification problems, have been shown to outperform other competing approaches on well-known benchmark datasets. Here we address their extension to multicategory classification, by developing three different methods. Two of them are based respectively on one-against-all and round-robin classification schemes, in which a number of binary discrimination problems are solved by means of a variant of DSVM. The third method directly addresses the multicategory classification task, by building a decision tree in which an optimal split to separate classes is derived at each node by a new extended formulation of DSVM. Computational tests on publicly available datasets are then conducted to compare the three multicategory classifiers based on DSVM with other methods, indicating that the proposed techniques achieve significantly higher accuracies. This research was partially supported by PRIN grant 2004132117.     

Robust conjugate duality for convex optimization under uncertainty with application to data classification

In this paper we present a robust conjugate duality theory for convex programming problems in the face of data uncertainty within the framework of robust optimization, extending the powerful conjugate duality technique. We first establish robust strong duality between an uncertain primal parameterized convex programming model problem and its uncertain conjugate dual by proving strong duality between the deterministic robust counterpart of the primal model and the optimistic counterpart of its dual problem under a regularity condition. This regularity condition is not only sufficient for robust duality but also necessary for it whenever robust duality holds for every linear perturbation of the objective function of the primal model problem. More importantly, we show that robust strong duality always holds for partially finite convex programming problems under scenario data uncertainty and that the optimistic counterpart of the dual is a tractable finite dimensional problem. As an application, we also derive a robust conjugate duality theorem for support vector machines which are a class of important convex optimization models for classifying two labelled data sets. The support vector machine has emerged as a powerful modelling tool for machine learning problems of data classification that arise in many areas of application in information and computer sciences.     

Multiclass Distance-Weighted Discrimination

In this article, we extend the binary distance-weighted discrimination (DWD) to the multiclass case. In addition to the usual extensions that combine several binary DWD classifiers, we propose a global multiclass DWD (MDWD) that finds a single classifier that considers all classes at once. Our theoretical results show that MDWD is Fisher consistent, even in the particularly challenging case when there is no dominating class, that is, a class with probability bigger than 0.5. The performance of different multiclass DWD methods is assessed through simulation studies and application to real microarray datasets. Comparison with the support vector machines is also provided. MATLAB implementation of the proposed methods is given in the online supplementary materials.     

Employing different loss functions for the classification of images via supervised learning

Supervised learning methods are powerful techniques to learn a function from a given set of labeled data, the so-called training data. In this paper the support vector machines approach is applied to an image classification task. Starting with the corresponding Tikhonov regularization problem, reformulated as a convex optimization problem, we introduce a conjugate dual problem to it and prove that, whenever strong duality holds, the function to be learned can be expressed via the dual optimal solutions. Corresponding dual problems are then derived for different loss functions. The theoretical results are applied by numerically solving a classification task using high dimensional real-world data in order to obtain optimal classifiers. The results demonstrate the excellent performance of support vector classification for this particular problem.     

基于海南省旅游人数的数学建模

使用两种不同的建模方法,研究了海南省2002～2009年的月度旅游人数,并建立了相应的数学模型.方法一利用微分方程结合传统时间序列分解法和自回归分布滞后模型;方法二利用ARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)~s模型.通过比较两种不同的方法,最终选出最优预测模型.     

On the adaptive control of a class of partially observed Markov decision processes

This paper is concerned with the adaptive control problem, over the infinite horizon, for partially observable Markov decision processes whose transition functions are parameterized by an unknown vector. We treat finite models and impose relatively mild assumptions on the transition function. Provided that a sequence of parameter estimates converging in probability to the true parameter value is available, we show that the certainty equivalence adaptive policy is optimal in the long-run average sense.     

Linear feature-weighted support vector machine

The existing support vector machines (SVMs) are all assumed that all the features of training samples have equal contributions to construct the optimal separating hyperplane. However, for a certain real-world data set, some features of it may possess more relevances to the classification information, while others may have less relevances. In this paper, the linear feature-weighted support vector machine (LFWSVM) is proposed to deal with the problem. Two phases are employed to construct the proposed model. First, the mutual information (MI) based approach is used to assign appropriate weights for each feature of the whole given data set. Second, the proposed model is trained by the samples with their features weighted by the obtained feature weight vector. Meanwhile, the feature weights are embedded in the quadratic programming through detailed theoretical deduction to obtain the dual solution to the original optimization problem. Although the calculation of feature weights may add an extra computational cost, the proposed model generally exhibits better generalization performance over the traditional support vector machine (SVM) with linear kernel function. Experimental results upon one synthetic data set and several benchmark data sets confirm the benefits in using the proposed method. Moreover, it is also shown in experiments that the proposed MI based approach to determining feature weights is superior to the other two mostly used methods.