Bifurcations of an epidemic model with non-monotonic incidence rate of saturated mass action

In this paper, we study the bifurcations of an epidemic model with non-monotonic incidence rate of saturated mass action, which describes the psychological effects of the community on certain serious diseases when the number of infective is getting larger. By carrying out the bifurcation analysis of the model, we show that there exist some values of the model parameters such that numerous kinds of bifurcation occur for the model, such as Hopf bifurcation, Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation.     

Local and global bifurcations in an SIRS epidemic model

This paper studies the existence and stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibria for the SIRS epidemic model with the saturated incidence rate, considering the factor of population dynamics such as the disease-related, the natural mortality and the constant recruitment of population. Analytical techniques are used to show, for some parameter values, the periodic solutions can arise through the Hopf bifurcation, which is important to carry different strategies for the controlling disease. Then the codimension-two bifurcation, i.e. BT bifurcation, is investigated by using a global qualitative method and the curves of saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and homoclinic bifurcation are obtained at the degenerate equilibrium. Moreover, several numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical analysis.     

Bifurcation analysis of an SIRS epidemic model with standard incidence rate and saturated treatment function

An epidemic model with standard incidence rate and saturated treatment function of infectious individuals is proposed to understand the effect of the capacity for treatment of infective individuals on the disease spread. The treatment function in this paper is a continuous and differential function which exhibits the effect of delayed treatment when the rate of treatment is lower and the number of infected individuals is getting larger. It is proved that the existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria for the model are not only related to the basic reproduction number but also to the capacity for treatment of infective individuals. And a backward bifurcation is found when the capacity is not enough. By computing the first Lyapunov coefficient, we can determine the type of Hopf bifurcation, i.e., subcritical Hopf bifurcation or supercritical Hopf bifurcation. We also show that under some conditions the model undergoes Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support some of the theoretical results.     

Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, we study the global dynamics of an epidemic model with vital dynamics and nonlinear incidence rate of saturated mass action. By carrying out global qualitative and bifurcation analyses, it is shown that either the number of infective individuals tends to zero as time evolves or there is a region such that the disease will be persistent if the initial position lies in the region and the disease will disappear if the initial position lies outside this region. When such a region exists, it is shown that the model undergoes a Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, i.e., it exhibits a saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcations, and a homoclinic bifurcation. Existence of none, one or two limit cycles is also discussed.     

一类SEIS模型的分岔及混沌

建立了一类更为符合实际疫情的种群动态变化下新的SEIS模型,得到了系统的平衡点渐近稳定条件、Hopf分岔以及稳定的极限环,给出了多参数变化对系统混沌的影响和易感种群增减对系统混沌区域伸缩的制约,并附有数值模拟和仿真.     

具饱和传染率的脉冲免疫接种SIRS模型

研究了具饱和传染率的脉冲免疫接种SIRS模型的一致持续生存和周期解,得到了无病周期解全局渐近稳定的充分条件和系统一致持续生存的充分条件,并应用分支理论得到了正周期解存在的分支参数.     

Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with saturated treatment function

An epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment function is studied. Here the treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals is getting larger and the medical condition is limited. The global dynamics of the model indicate that the basic reproduction number being the unity is a strict threshold for disease eradication when such effect is weak. However, it is shown that a backward bifurcation will take place when this delayed effect for treatment is strong. Therefore, driving the basic reproduction number below the unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. And a critical value at the turning point is deduced as a new threshold. Some sufficient conditions for the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium being globally asymptotically stable are also obtained. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that giving the patients timely treatment, improving the cure efficiency and decreasing the infective coefficient are all valid methods for the control of disease.     

On the Lyapunov stability for SIRS epidemic models with general nonlinear incidence rate

We study an epidemic model for infections with non permanent acquired immunity (SIRS). The incidence rate is assumed to be a general nonlinear function of the susceptibles and the infectious classes. By using a peculiar Lyapunov function, we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the local nonlinear stability of equilibria. Conditions ensuring the global stability are also obtained. Unlike the recent literature on this subject, here no restrictions are required about the monotonicity and concavity of the incidence rate with respect to the infectious class. Among the applications, the noteworthy case of a convex incidence rate is provided.     

Complex dynamics of epidemic models on adaptive networks

There has been a substantial amount of well mixing epidemic models devoted to characterizing the observed complex phenomena (such as bistability, hysteresis, oscillations, etc.) during the transmission of many infectious diseases. A comprehensive explanation of these phenomena by epidemic models on complex networks is still lacking. In this paper we study epidemic dynamics in an adaptive network proposed by Gross et al., where the susceptibles are able to avoid contact with the infectious by rewiring their network connections. Such rewiring of the local connections changes the topology of the network, and inevitably has a profound effect on the transmission of the disease, which in turn influences the rewiring process. We rigorously prove that the adaptive epidemic model investigated in this paper exhibits degenerate Hopf bifurcation, homoclinic bifurcation and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation. Our study shows that adaptive behaviors during an epidemic may induce complex dynamics of disease transmission, including bistability, transient and sustained oscillations, which contrast sharply to the dynamics of classical network models. Our results yield deeper insights into the interplay between topology of networks and the dynamics of disease transmission on networks.     

A nonlinear AIDS epidemic model with screening and time delay

A nonlinear mathematical model to study the effect of time delay in the recruitment of infected persons on the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS is proposed and analyzed. In modeling the dynamics, the population is divided into four subclasses: the susceptibles, the HIV positives or infectives that do not know they are infected, the HIV positives that know they are infected and the AIDS patients. Susceptibles are assumed to become infected via sexual contacts with (both types of) infectives. The model is analyzed using stability theory of delay differential equations. Both the disease-free and the endemic equilibria are found and their stability is investigated. It is shown that the introduction of time delay in the model has a destabilizing effect on the system and periodic solutions can arise by Hopf bifurcation. Numerical simulations are also carried out to investigate the influence of key parameters on the spread of the disease, to support the analytical conclusion and to illustrate possible behavioral scenario of the model.     

Modeling peer influence effects on the spread of high–risk alcohol consumption behavior

Alcohol dependence is among the main healthy risky behavior due to the high relevance of negative health and social effect. We study a mathematical model, given by nonlinear ordinary differential equations, describing the spread of high–risk alcohol consumption behavior within a community of individuals. We describe the peer-influence effects on alcohol addiction by assuming that susceptibles become heavy drinkers through the mechanism of imitation. We show that the model may exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. This means that alcohol problems may persist in the population even if the basic reproduction number is less than one. Nonlinear stability analysis of equilibria is also provided.     

Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a delayed viral infection model with logistic growth and saturated immune impairment

In this paper, the stability and Hopf bifurcation of a delayed viral infection model with logistic growth and saturated immune impairment is studied. It is shown that there exist 3 equilibria. The sufficient conditions for local asymptotic stability of the infection‐free equilibrium and no‐immune equilibrium are given. We also discussed the local stability of positive equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation. Moreover, the direction and stability of Hopf bifurcation is obtained by using standard form theory and the center manifold theorem. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to verify the theoretical conclusions.     

一类具密度制约SIS模型的全局稳定性和周期性

研究了一类具密度制约和双线性传染率的S IS传染病模型,考虑到了实际中对易感者和传染者的控制,得到了地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性和系统的周期性,并给出了生物学解释和仿真.     

Bifurcation analysis of an epidemic model with nonlinear incidence

In this paper, we consider an epidemic model with the nonlinear incidence of a sigmoidal function. By mathematical analysis, it is shown that the model exhibits the bistability and undergoes the Hopf bifurcation and the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. By numerical simulations, it is found that the incidence rate can induce multiple limit cycles, and a little change of the parameter could lead to quite different bifurcation structures.     

Analysis of stability and bifurcation for an SEIR epidemic model with saturated recovery rate

In this paper we study an SEIR epidemic model with saturated recovery rate. A backward bifurcation leading to bistability possibly occurs, and global dynamics are shown by compound matrices and geometric approaches. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.     

Bifurcations analysis and tracking control of an epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a discrete epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate obtained by the forward Euler method is investigated. The conditions for existence of codimension-1 bifurcations (fold bifurcation, flip bifurcation and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation) are derived by using the center manifold theorem and bifurcation theory. Furthermore, the condition for the occurrence of codimension-2 bifurcation (fold-flip bifurcation) is presented. In order to eliminate the chaos or Neimark-Sacker bifurcation of the discrete epidemic model, a tracking controller is designed. The number of the infectives tends to zero when the number of iterations is gradually increasing, that is, the disease disappears gradually. Finally, numerical simulations not only illustrate the validity of the proposed results, but also display the interesting and complex dynamical behaviors.     

Bifurcations and complex dynamics of an SIR model with the impact of the number of hospital beds

In this paper we establish an SIR model with a standard incidence rate and a nonlinear recovery rate, formulated to consider the impact of available resource of the public health system especially the number of hospital beds. For the three dimensional model with total population regulated by both demographics and diseases incidence, we prove that the model can undergo backward bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and cusp type of Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation of codimension 3. We present the bifurcation diagram near the cusp type of Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation point of codimension 3 and give epidemiological interpretation of the complex dynamical behaviors of endemic due to the variation of the number of hospital beds. This study suggests that maintaining enough number of hospital beds is crucial for the control of the infectious diseases.     

On the dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with a convex incidence rate

An SEIR epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate is studied. The incidence is assumed to be a convex function with respect to the infective class of a host population. A bifurcation analysis is performed and conditions ensuring that the system exhibits backward bifurcation are provided. The global dynamics is also studied, through a geometric approach to stability. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results obtained analytically. This research is discussed in the framework of the recent literature on the subject.      

An SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate

The global dynamics of an SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We establish a threshold for a disease to be extinct or endemic, analyze the existence and asymptotic stability of equilibria, and verify the existence of bistable states, i.e., a stable disease free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium or a stable limit cycle. In particular, we find that the model admits stability switches as a parameter changes. We also investigate the backward bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation and obtain the Hopf bifurcation criteria and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation curves, which are important for making strategies for controlling a disease.     

An SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate

The global dynamics of an SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We establish a threshold for a disease to be extinct or endemic, analyze the existence and asymptotic stability of equilibria, and verify the existence of bistable states, i.e., a stable disease free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium or a stable limit cycle. In particular, we find that the model admits stability switches as a parameter changes. We also investigate the backward bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation and obtain the Hopf bifurcation criteria and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation curves, which are important for making strategies for controlling a disease.