Selecting the Superpositioning of Models for Railway Freight Forecasting

The problem of selecting the optimum system of models for forecasting short-term railway traffic volumes is considered. The historical data is the daily volume of railway traffic between pairs of stations for different types of cargo. The given time series are highly volatile, noisy, and nonstationary. A system is proposed that selects the optimum superpositioning of forecasting models with respect to features of the historical data. A model of sliding averages, exponential and kernel-smoothing models, the ARIMA model, Croston’s method, and LSTM neural networks are considered as candidates for inclusion in superpositioning.     

道路维修施工路段交通分流信控优化模型

针对道路维修施工期间常采用的部分路面封闭施工且利用辅路进行分流的情形,探讨了交通分流信控优化模型。借助交通流波动理论,分析了施工路段及其前后车流拥挤排队及疏散特征和规律,分析了对车流进行控制需满足的约束,并分析了车流的延误计算公式。以总的车辆行驶时间最小化目标,原路径及分流路径的绿时分配及信号周期为优化参数,考虑交通分流控制的各种约束,建立了道路施工路段交通分流信控优化模型。分析了该模型属于非凸问题,因此提出了一种近似求解最优解的办法。通过一个示例对模型和求解算法进行了验证,并对一些规律性结果进行了分析。     

Journey time estimation using single inductive loop detectors on non-signalised links

This paper describes two techniques designed to estimate vehicle journey times on non-signalised roads, using 250?ms digital loop-occupancy data produced by single inductive loop detectors. A mechanistic and a neural network approach provided historical journey time estimates every 30?s, based on the data collected from the previous 30?s period. These 30?s estimates would provide the traffic network operator with immediate post-event congestion information on roads where no close circuit television cameras were present. The mechanistic approach estimated journey times every 30?s between pairs of detectors, using the knowledge of vehicle speed derived from the loops and the distances between them. The 30?s average loop-occupancy time per vehicle, average time-gap between vehicles and percentage occupancy parameters derived from the inductive loops were presented to a neural network for training along with the associated vehicles' measured journey times. The neural network was shown to consistently out-perform the mechanistic approach (in terms of the mean absolute percentage deviation from the mean measured travel time), particularly when using pairs of detectors.     

不确定条件下的乡村中小学布局优化

学校的合理规划布局是实现教育资源优化配置、提高办学效益和推动教育均衡发展的重要途径。已有许多学者研究了学校的布局问题,但基本上都忽略了交通网络条件以及不确定因素对学校布局的影响。本研究将在前人研究基础上,重点考虑交通网络对乡村中小学选址的影响,并假设旅行时间具有不确定性,从而以最小化学生旅行成本、学校建设、道路修建和道路升级成本为目标,构建不确定条件下的设施区位设计模型。在算法求解方面提出混合模拟退火算法,用于确定新建学校的最佳位置,以及新道路的修建和原有道路的升级情况。最后,将提出的模型和算法应用到实际案例中。     

A hybrid optimization algorithm for area traffic control problem

For an area traffic control road network subject to equilibrium flows, the maximum possible increase in travel demands is considered while total delays for travellers are minimized with respect to the common cycle time, the starts and durations of green times and the offsets. Using the concept of reserve capacity of signal-controlled junctions, the problem of finding the maximum increase in traffic demands can be formulated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints. In this paper, we present a hybrid optimization algorithm to simultaneously solve the maximum increase in travel demands and minimizing total delays of travellers. Numerical computations are made for the values of performance index and the reserve capacity achieved at various sets of initial signal settings on a variety of signal-controlled networks. Encouraging results are obtained when compared with other alternatives.     

A heuristic method for estimating time-series models for forecasting. I

The aim is to develop a heuristic method for estimating time-series models for forecasting. The study consists of two parts. This one presents the analytical framework of the proposed procedure; the second will present the actual algorithm and numerical evaluations of the process. Our approach makes use of the frequency-domain theory of second-order stochastic processes to remedy several of the problems that we encounter in fitting ARIMA-type models for forecasting. Within this framework some of the problems that the present study addresses are: sample size of time series, initial estimates of the coefficients, convergence of difficult data to stable estimates, and computing time.     

Alternative formulations of a combined trip generation,trip distribution,modal split,and trip assignment model

The traditional four-step model has been widely used in travel demand forecasting by considering trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment sequentially in a fixed order. However, this sequential approach suffers from the inconsistency among the level-of-service and flow values in each step of the procedure. In the last two decades, this problem has been addressed by many researchers who have sought to develop combined (or integrated) models that can consider travelers’ choice on different stages simultaneously and give consistent results. In this paper, alternative formulations, including mathematical programming (MP) formulation and variational inequality (VI) formulations, are provided for a combined travel demand model that integrates trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, and traffic assignment using the random utility theory framework. Thus, the proposed alternative formulations not only allow a systematic and consistent treatment of travel choice over different dimensions but also have behavioral richness. Qualitative properties of the formulations are also given to ensure the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Particularly, the model is analyzed for a special but useful case where the probabilistic travel choices are assumed to be a hierarchical logit model. Furthermore, a self-adaptive Goldstein–Levitin–Polyak (GLP) projection algorithm is adopted for solving this special case.     

Forecasting urban traffic flow by SVR with continuous ACO

Accurate forecasting of inter-urban traffic flow has been one of the most important issues globally in the research on road traffic congestion. Because the information of inter-urban traffic presents a challenging situation, the traffic flow forecasting involves a rather complex nonlinear data pattern. In the recent years, the support vector regression model (SVR) has been widely used to solve nonlinear regression and time series problems. This investigation presents a short-term traffic forecasting model which combines the support vector regression model with continuous ant colony optimization algorithms (SVRCACO) to forecast inter-urban traffic flow. Additionally, a numerical example of traffic flow values from northern Taiwan is employed to elucidate the forecasting performance of the proposed SVRCACO model. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed model yields more accurate forecasting results than the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time series model. Therefore, the SVRCACO model is a promising alternative for forecasting traffic flow.     

Leakage delays in BAM

A well known bidirectional associative memory (BAM) model is generalized with the introduction of discrete time delays in the leakage (or forgetting) terms. By using a model transformation, the system is converted to one of a neutral delay system. Two sets of delay dependent sufficient conditions are derived for the existence of a unique equilibrium as well as its asymptotic and exponential stability. The methods of degenerate Lyapunov-Kravsovskii functionals and inequalities together with some properties of M-matrices are used in the derivation of sufficient conditions. In the absence of leakage delays, the sufficient conditions lead to some known sufficient conditions.     

Stochastic stability of Markovian jumping genetic regulatory networks with mixed time delays

In this paper, the stability analysis problem is investigated for a class of Markovian jumping genetic regulatory networks (GRNs) with mixed time delays (discrete time delays and distributed time delays) and stochastic perturbations. The main purpose of the addressed stability analysis problem is to establish some easy-to-verify conditions under which the dynamics of the true concentrations of the messenger ribonucleic acid and protein is asymptotically stable. By utilizing a more general Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional based on the idea of “delay decomposing” and the LMI (linear matrix inequality) technique, we derive sufficient delay-dependent conditions ensuring the asymptotically stability of the GRNs with mixed time delays and noise perturbations in terms of LMI. Finally, simulation examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the developed theoretical results.     

路段容量约束弹性需求交通均衡分配近似算法

本文研究了带路段容量约束弹性需求用户均衡交通分配问题及其近似解法.采用超需求模型将弹性需求转化为固定需求,提出了一种带路段容量约束弹性需求用户均衡交通分配近似算法.该算法在迭代过程中,通过不断自适应调节排队延误因子、误差因子来近似真实路段行驶时间,使路段流量逐步满足约束条件,最终达到广义用户均衡.这种方法克服了容量约束弹性需求用户均衡分配计算量大及随机分配法要求枚举所有路径的困难.随后证明了算法的收敛性,并对一个小型路网进行了数值试验.     

Predicting Time-Dependent Distributions of Queues and Delays for Road Traffic at Roundabouts and Priority Junctions

Vehicle queues and delays at busy road junctions have to be treated time-dependently when the traffic demand and the available capacity are approximately equal. Existing methods allow the queue length at a given time to be directly estimated as an average over all possible evolutions of the queueing system consistent with the given initial conditions and the time-dependent arrival and service rates. The paper describes the development of methods to predict the underlying distributions. Estimates of the variance and the overall frequency distribution for queue length and delay are obtained by simulating an M/M/1 queueing model with parameters varying with time. Predictive models are developed to represent the simulation results. They require as input values of parameters describing the duration of the peak and the time-average traffic intensities and capacities.     

A hierarchical clustering scheme approach to assessment of IP-network traffic using detrended fluctuation analysis

This paper presents an approach to the assessment of IP-network traffic in terms of the time variation of self-similarity. To get a comprehensive view in analyzing the degree of long-range dependence (LRD) of IP-network traffic, we use a hierarchical clustering scheme, which provides a way to classify high-dimensional data with a tree-like structure. Also, in the LRD-based analysis, we employ detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), which is applicable to the analysis of long-range power-law correlations or LRD in non-stationary time-series signals. Based on sequential measurements of IP-network traffic at two locations, this paper derives corresponding values for the LRD-related parameter α that reflects the degree of LRD of measured data. In performing the hierarchical clustering scheme, we use three parameters: the α value, average throughput, and the proportion of network traffic that exceeds 80% of network bandwidth for each measured data set. We visually confirm that the traffic data can be classified in accordance with the network traffic properties, resulting in that the combined depiction of the LRD and other factors can give us an effective assessment of network conditions at different times.     

A continuous whole-link travel time model with occupancy constraint

The continuous dynamic network loading problem (CDNLP) aims to compute link travel times and path travel times on a congested network, given time-dependent path flow rates for a given time period. A crucial element of CDNLP is a model of the link performance. Two main modeling frameworks have been used in link loading models: The so-called whole-link travel time (WTT) models and the kinematic wave model of Lighthill–Whitham–Richards (LWR) for traffic flow.In this paper, we reformulate a well-known whole-link model in which the link travel time, for traffic entering a time t, is a function of the number of vehicles on link. This formulation does not require the satisfying of the FIFO (first in, first out) condition. An extension of the basic WTT model is proposed in order to take explicitly into account the maximum number of vehicles that the link can accommodate (occupancy constraint). A solution scheme for the proposed WTT model is derived.Several numerical examples are given to illustrate that the FIFO condition is not respected for the WTT model and to compare the travel time predictions effected by LWR and WTT models.     

Network delay in a model with inputs of functional elements

We consider a model of delays in networks of functional elements in an arbitrary finite complete basis B, where the delays of basis elements are arbitrary positive real numbers for each input and each input set of variables going to the remaining inputs. This model estimates the delays in a multiplexer function of nth order asymptotically as τ_B n ± O(logn), where τ_B is a constant depending only on the basis B. On the basis of these estimates and within this model, asymptotic estimates of the form τ_B n ± O(logn) are obtained for the corresponding Shannon function, i.e., for the delay of the “worst” Boolean algebra function of given n variables.     

Delays of schemes in a model that considers the input values of functional elements

A delay model for schemes of functional elements in arbitrary finite complete basis B is studied; in the model, delays of the basic element are given by random positive real numbers for each input and each input set of variables entering other inputs. Asymptotic estimates in the form τ_B n ± O(logn), where τ_B is a constant that depends only on basis B, are obtained for the delay of the multiplex function of order n. Based on these estimates, asymptotic estimates of the form τ_B n ± O(logn) for the corresponding Shannon function, i.e., for the delay of the worst function of logic algebra that depends on given n variables, are established.     

Modeling fuzzy capacitated p-hub center problem and a genetic algorithm solution

Hub and spoke networks are used to switch and transfer commodities between terminal nodes in distribution systems at minimum cost and/or time. The p-hub center allocation problem is to minimize maximum travel time in networks by locating p hubs from a set of candidate hub locations and allocating demand and supply nodes to hubs. The capacities of the hubs are given. In previous studies, authors usually considered only quantitative parameters such as cost and time to find the optimum location. But it seems not to be sufficient and often the critical role of qualitative parameters like quality of service, zone traffic, environmental issues, capability for development in the future and etc. that are critical for decision makers (DMs), have not been incorporated into models. In many real world situations qualitative parameters are as much important as quantitative ones. We present a hybrid approach to the p-hub center problem in which the location of hub facilities is determined by both parameters simultaneously. Dealing with qualitative and uncertain data, Fuzzy systems are used to cope with these conditions and they are used as the basis of this work. We use fuzzy VIKOR to model a hybrid solution to the hub location problem. Results are used by a genetic algorithm solution to successfully solve a number of problem instances. Furthermore, this method can be used to take into account more desired quantitative variables other than cost and time, like future market and potential customers easily.     

基于支持向量回归机的交通状态短时预测和北京某区域实例分析

根据基于支持向量回归机的交通状态短时预测方法建立了数学模型,考虑以交通检测器收集到所要预测时刻前几个时段及被测路段上下游前几时段的交通流量、车道占有率、平均线速度等交通参数为输入,以对应时段的平均线速度为输出.选取核函数,对支持向量回归机进行训练.应用训练完成的支持向量回归机,利用输入参数预测下时段的交通线速度.最后,以北京市北四环某路段的实时监测数据来对模型进行检测,预测结果表明了模型的有效性.     

An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90–94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93–95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction.