Asymptotic Improvement of the Usual Confidence Set in a Multivariate Normal Distribution with Unknown Variance

We consider confidence sets for the mean of a multivariate normal distribution with unknown covariance matrix of the formσ²I. The coverage probability of the usual confidence set is shown to be improved asymptotically by centering at a shrinkage estimator.     

Estimation of a Location Parameter with Restrictions or “vague information” for Spherically Symmetric Distributions

In this article we consider estimating a location parameter of a spherically symmetric distribution under restrictions on the parameter. First we consider a general theory for estimation on polyhedral cones which includes examples such as ordered parameters and general linear inequality restrictions. Next, we extend the theory to cones with piecewise smooth boundaries. Finally we consider shrinkage toward a closed convex set K where one has vague prior information that θ is in K but where θ is not restricted to be in K. In this latter case we give estimators which improve on the usual unbiased estimator while in the restricted parameter case we give estimators which improve on the projection onto the cone of the unbiased estimator. The class of estimators is somewhat non-standard as the nature of the constraint set may preclude weakly differentiable shrinkage functions. The technique of proof is novel in the sense that we first deduce the improvement results for the normal location problem and then extend them to the general spherically symmetric case by combining arguments about uniform distributions on the spheres, conditioning and completeness.     

Adaptive quasi-likelihood estimate in generalized linear models

This paper gives a thorough theoretical treatment on the adaptive quasi-likelihood estimate of the parameters in the generalized linear models. The unknown covariance matrix of the response variable is estimated by the sample. It is shown that the adaptive estimator defined in this paper is asymptotically most efficient in the sense that it is asymptotic normal, and the covariance matrix of the limit distribution coincides with the one for the quasi-likelihood estimator for the case that the covariance matrix of the response variable is completely known.     

James—Stein型置信椭球及其覆盖概率

本文构造了协方差阵具有非球型结构（未知）的多元正态分布均值的James-Stein型置信椭球,它能渐近一致改进通常置信椭球的覆盖概率,并给出了改进余项的一致阶,同时本质改进了文献中有关余项的一致阶。     

左截断右删失数据下半参数模型风险率函数估计

文章给出了右删失左截断数据半参数模型下的风险率函数估计,讨论了风险率函数估计的渐近性质,获得了这些估计的渐近正态性,对数律和重对数律.由于假定删失机制服从半参数模型下,从而知道模型的更多信息,因此对于给出参数的极大似然估计,可以改进风险率函数估计的渐近性质.也就是说,删失数据模型具有半参数的辅助信息下, 风险率函数估计的渐近方差比通常的完全非参数的估计的渐近方差更小.这说明加入了额外的信息提高了风险率函数估计的效率.     

非正则双边截断分布族点估计的中偏差

本文研究了某一类非正则双边截断分布族的参数估计,利用( X(1),X(n))的联合分布函数及应用Taylor渐近展开的方法,得到了它的未知参数(θ1,θ2)满足中偏差原理,且求出了其精确的速率函数表达式,它的表达式不同于一般的速率函数.     

Iterative weighted partial spline least squares estimation in semiparametric modeling of longitudinal data

In this paper we consider the estimating problem of a semiparametric regression modelling whenthe data are longitudinal.An iterative weighted partial spline least squares estimator(IWPSLSE)for the para-metric component is proposed which is more efficient than the weighted partial spline least squares estimator(WPSLSE)with weights constructed by using the within-group partial spline least squares residuals in the sense     

Coupling Importance Sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo using Sample Average Approximation

In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to handle the different levels independently. The search for parameters is carried out using sample average approximation, which basically consists in applying deterministic optimisation techniques to a Monte Carlo approximation rather than resorting to stochastic approximation. Our innovative estimator leads to a robust and efficient procedure reducing both the discretization error (the bias) and the variance for a given computational effort. In the setting of discretized diffusions, we prove that our estimator satisfies a strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem with optimal limiting variance, in the sense that this is the variance achieved by the best importance sampling measure (among the class of changes we consider), which is however non tractable. Finally, we illustrate the efficiency of our method on several numerical challenges coming from quantitative finance and show that it outperforms the standard MLMC estimator.     

Asymptotic Normality of a Combined Regression Estimator

In this paper, we propose a combined regression estimator by using a parametric estimator and a nonparametric estimator of the regression function. The asymptotic distribution of this estimator is obtained for cases where the parametric regression model is correct, incorrect, and approximately correct. These distributional results imply that the combined estimator is superior to the kernel estimator in the sense that it can never do worse than the kernel estimator in terms of convergence rate and it has the same convergence rate as the parametric estimator in the case where the parametric model is correct. Unlike the parametric estimator, the combined estimator is robust to model misspecification. In addition, we also establish the asymptotic distribution of the estimator of the weight given to the parametric estimator in constructing the combined estimator. This can be used to construct consistent tests for the parametric regression model used to form the combined estimator.     

Estimating Functions for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This paper discusses the problem of estimation for two classes of nonlinear models, namely random coefficient autoregressive (RCA) and autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models. For the RCA model, first assuming that the nuisance parameters are known we construct an estimator for parameters of interest based on Godambe's asymptotically optimal estimating function. Then, using the conditional least squares (CLS) estimator given by Tjøstheim (1986, Stochastic Process. Appl., 21, 251–273) and classical moment estimators for the nuisance parameters, we propose an estimated version of this estimator. These results are extended to the case of vector parameter. Next, we turn to discuss the problem of estimating the ARCH model with unknown parameter vector. We construct an estimator for parameters of interest based on Godambe's optimal estimator allowing that a part of the estimator depends on unknown parameters. Then, substituting the CLS estimators for the unknown parameters, the estimated version is proposed. Comparisons between the CLS and estimated optimal estimator of the RCA model and between the CLS and estimated version of the ARCH model are given via simulation studies.     

矩阵损失函数下参数估计的几个结果

在本文中,设随机向量 Y 的样本空间和分布族为((?)P_θ),θ∈(?),(?)为 p 维欧氏空间 R~p 中的 Borel 集.要估计θ的函数的向量 h(θ)=(h_1(θ),…,h_k(θ))'.文献[1]中第二章的定理1.4指出,若存在 h(θ)的无偏估计δ(Y),使得 E_θ(δ(Y)—h(θ))′(δ(Y)—h(θ))<∞,一切θ∈(?),则在损失函数(α—h(θ))′(α—h(θ))下,(?)(Y)是 h(θ)的一致最优无偏估计的充要条件是对 h(θ)的任何风险函数有限的无偏估     

The best EBLUP in the Fay�CHerriot model

We show that in the case of Fay?CHerriot model for small area estimation, there is an estimator of the variance of the random effects so that the resulting EBLUP is the best in the sense that it minimizes the leading term in the asymptotic expansion of the mean squared error (MSE) of the EBLUP. In particular, in the balanced case, i.e., when the sampling variances are equal, this best EBLUP has the minimal MSE in the exact sense. We also propose a modified Prasad?CRao MSE estimator which is second-order unbiased and show that it is less biased than the jackknife MSE estimator in a suitable sense in the balanced case. A real data example is discussed.     

Integrated squared error of kernel-type estimator of distribution function

Let X ₁ ,...,X _n be a random sample drawn from distribution function F(x) with density function f(x) and suppose we want to estimate X(x). It is already shown that kernel estimator of F(x) is better than usual empirical distribution function in the sense of mean integrated squared error. In this paper we derive integrated squared error of kernel estimator and compare the error with that of the empirical distribution function. It is shown that the superiority of kernel estimators is not necessarily true in the sense of integrated squared error.     

Jackknifing in partially linear regression models with serially correlated errors

In this paper jackknifing technique is examined for functions of the parametric component in a partially linear regression model with serially correlated errors. By deleting partial residuals a jackknife-type estimator is proposed. It is shown that the jackknife-type estimator and the usual semiparametric least-squares estimator (SLSE) are asymptotically equivalent. However, simulation shows that the former has smaller biases than the latter when the sample size is small or moderate. Moreover, since the errors are correlated, both the Tukey type and the delta type jackknife asymptotic variance estimators are not consistent. By introducing cross-product terms, a consistent estimator of the jackknife asymptotic variance is constructed and shown to be robust against heterogeneity of the error variances. In addition, simulation results show that confidence interval estimation based on the proposed jackknife estimator has better coverage probability than that based on the SLSE, even though the latter uses the information of the error structure, while the former does not.     

An Information-theoretic Approach to the Effective Usage of Auxiliary Information from Survey Data

In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic approach to the effective usage of auxiliary information from survey data, which is suitable for both simple and complex survey data. Our estimator under simple random sampling without replacement will be consistent and asymptotically normal. We show that the resulting estimates have smaller asymptotic variances than the usual estimates which do not use auxiliary information. For more complex survey designs, the resulting estimator is in essence asymptotically equivalent to a pseudo empirical likelihood estimator. Results of a limited simulation study show that the proposed estimators perform well among a number of competitors.     

Estimation of means of multivariate normal populations with order restriction

Multivariate isotonic regression theory plays a key role in the field of statistical inference under order restriction for vector valued parameters. Two cases of estimating multivariate normal means under order restricted set are considered. One case is that covariance matrices are known, the other one is that covariance matrices are unknown but are restricted by partial order. This paper shows that when covariance matrices are known, the estimator given by this paper always dominates unrestricted maximum likelihood estimator uniformly, and when covariance matrices are unknown, the plug-in estimator dominates unrestricted maximum likelihood estimator under the order restricted set of covariance matrices. The isotonic regression estimators in this paper are the generalizations of plug-in estimators in unitary case.     

Empirical likelihood for LAD estimators in infinite variance ARMA models

In this paper, we use an empirical likelihood method to construct confidence regions for the stationary ARMA(p,q) models with infinite variance. An empirical log-likelihood ratio is derived by the estimating equation of the self-weighted LAD estimator. It is proved that the proposed statistic has an asymptotic standard chi-squared distribution. Simulation studies show that in a small sample case, the performance of empirical likelihood method is better than that of normal approximation of the LAD estimator in terms of the coverage accuracy.     

Some theoretical results on the Grouped Variables Lasso

We consider the linear regression model with Gaussian error. We estimate the unknown parameters by a procedure inspired by the Group Lasso estimator introduced in [22]. We show that this estimator satisfies a sparsity inequality, i.e., a bound in terms of the number of non-zero components of the oracle regression vector. We prove that this bound is better, in some cases, than the one achieved by the Lasso and the Dantzig selector.      

Estimating nonlinear regression with and without change-points by the LAD method

The paper considers the least absolute deviations estimator in a nonlinear parametric regression. The interest of the LAD method is its robustness with respect to other traditional methods when the errors of model contain outliers. First, in the absence of change-points, the convergence rate of estimated parameters is found. For a model with change-points, in the case when the number of jumps is known, the convergence rate and the asymptotic distribution of estimators are obtained. Particularly, it is shown that the change-points estimator converges weakly to the minimizer of given random process. Next, when the number of jumps is unknown, its consistent estimator is proposed, via the modified Schwarz criterion.     

Iterative Weighted Semiparametric Least Squares Estimation in Repeated Measurement Partially Linear Regression Models

Consider a repeated measurement partially linear regression model with an unknown vector parameter β, an unknown function g(.), and unknown heteroscedastic error variances. In order to improve the semiparametric generalized least squares estimator (SGLSE) of β, we propose an iterative weighted semiparametric least squares estimator (IWSLSE) and show that it improves upon the SGLSE in terms of asymptotic covariance matrix. An adaptive procedure is given to determine the number of iterations. We also show that when the number of replicates is less than or equal to two, the IWSLSE can not improve upon the SGLSE. These results are generalizations of those in [2] to the case of semiparametric regressions.