Performance analysis for assemble-to-order systems with general renewal arrivals and random batch demands

We study multi-product and multi-item assemble-to-order systems under general assumptions on demand patterns and replenish leadtime distributions. We only assume that the demand process of each product being a renewal process, and the replenish leadtimes follow general distributions. Based upon techniques from renewal theory, we developed procedures for approximating key performance measures of these inventory systems, such as average inventory and immediate order fill rate. We also obtain qualitative results that reveal the impacts of changes in demand patterns and leadtime variability upon the performance of the systems.     

Fuzzy random renewal process and renewal reward process

So far, there have been several concepts about fuzzy random variables and their expected values in literature. One of the concepts defined by Liu and Liu (2003a) is that the fuzzy random variable is a measurable function from a probability space to a collection of fuzzy variables and its expected value is described as a scalar number. Based on the concepts, this paper addresses two processes—fuzzy random renewal process and fuzzy random renewal reward process. In the fuzzy random renewal process, the interarrival times are characterized as fuzzy random variables and a fuzzy random elementary renewal theorem on the limit value of the expected renewal rate of the process is presented. In the fuzzy random renewal reward process, both the interarrival times and rewards are depicted as fuzzy random variables and a fuzzy random renewal reward theorem on the limit value of the long-run expected reward per unit time is provided. The results obtained in this paper coincide with those in stochastic case or in fuzzy case when the fuzzy random variables degenerate to random variables or to fuzzy variables.     

The expected discounted penalty function under a renewal risk model with stochastic income

In this paper, we consider a renewal risk model with stochastic premiums income. We assume that the premium number process and the claim number process are a Poisson process and a generalized Erlang (n) processes, respectively. When the individual stochastic premium sizes are exponentially distributed, the Laplace transform and a defective renewal equation for the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function are obtained. Furthermore, the discounted joint distribution of the surplus just before ruin and the deficit at ruin is given. When the claim size distributions belong to the rational family, the explicit expression of the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function is derived. Finally, a specific example is provided.     

The customer response times in the processor sharing queue are associated

The customer response times in the egalitarian processor sharing queue are shown to be associated random variables under renewal inputs and general independent service times assumptions.The work by this author was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grant ASC 88-8802764 and by the Office of Naval Research under grant ONR N00014-87-K-0796.     

关于随机差分方程的一个注记及其在GARCH模型中的应用

本文对Kesten(1973)中的关_十随机矩阵的更新理论作了一个注记，给出了一个计算尾部指数K1的一个简易方法，并利用此讨论了ARCH(2)和GARCH(2，1)两个时间序列模型的平稳域和分布尾部概率，同时给出一些直观的数值结果。本文结果可看作是对Embrechts et al．(1997)和Mikosch及starica(2000)关于一维随机差分方程应用结果的一个推广．     

Multi-item inventory control with full truckloads: A comparison of aggregate and individual order triggering

In this paper, we consider the stochastic joint replenishment problem in an environment where transportation costs are dominant and full truckloads or full container loads are required. One replenishment policy, taking into account capacity restrictions of the total order volume, is the so-called QS policy, where replenishment orders are placed to raise the individual inventory positions of all items to their order-up-to levels, whenever the aggregate inventory position drops below the reorder level. We first provide a method to compute the policy parameters of a QS policy such that item target service levels can be met, under the assumption that demand can be modeled as a compound renewal process. The approximation formulas are based on renewal theory and are tested in a simulation study which reveals good performance. Second, we compare the QS policy with a simple allocation policy where replenishment orders are triggered by the individual inventory positions of the items. At the moment when an individual inventory position drops below its item reorder level, a replenishment order is triggered and the total vehicle capacity is allocated to all items such that the expected elapsed time before the next replenishment order is maximized. In an extensive simulation study it is illustrated that the QS policy outperforms this allocation policy since it results in lower inventory levels for the same service level. Although both policies lead to similar performance if items are identical, it can differ substantially if the item characteristics vary.     

A Sample-Path Condition for the Asymptotic Uniform Distribution of Clearing Processes

In this note we show that the asymptotic time-average distribution of a functional of cumulative input process associated with an imbedded point process follows as asymptotic uniform distribution almost surely under a mild regulatory sample-path condition. Examples from stochastic clearing processes, inventory systems and renewal theory are provided.     

Concentration inequalities for stochastic differential equations of pure non-Poissonian jumps

We provide concentration inequalities for solutions to stochastic differential equations of pure not-necessarily Poissonian jumps. Our proofs are based on transportation cost inequalities for square integrable functionals of point processes with stochastic intensity and elements of stochastic calculus with respect to semi-martingales. We apply the general results to solutions of stochastic differential equations driven by renewal and non-linear Hawkes point processes.     

Asymptotics for the ruin probability of a time-dependent renewal risk model with geometric Lévy process investment returns and dominatedly-varying-tailed claims

Consider a continuous-time renewal risk model, in which the claim sizes and inter-arrival times form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random pairs, with each pair obeying a dependence structure. Suppose that the surplus is invested in a portfolio whose return follows a Lévy process. When the claim-size distribution is dominatedly-varying tailed, asymptotic estimates for the finite- and infinite-horizon ruin probabilities are obtained.     

Representation and analysis of behavior for multiprocess systems by using stochastic Petri nets

This paper proposes a new approach to visually represent the behavior of multiprocess in a computer network system using stochastic Petri net (SPN) and an aggregate approach of SPN and Markov renewal process (MRP) to conduct behavior analysis and performance evaluation for the system. SPN is employed because of its highly visual nature that can give insight into the nature of the modeled system and because of its expressive power for an exponentially distributed event. In order to increase the analytical power of the SPN model, MRP is introduced and an embedded transference probability matrix is applied to obtain the steady-state solution of the model, from which it is possible to obtain automatically the performance measures of the multiprocess computer network system.     

Turnpike properties for a class of piecewise deterministic systems arising in manufacturing flow control

This paper deals with a general class of piecewise deterministic control systems that encompasses FMS flow control models. One uses the Markov renewal decision process formalism to characterize optimal policies via a discrete event dynamic programming approach. A family of control problems with a random stopping time is associated with these optimality conditions. These problems can be reformulated as infinite horizon deterministic control problems. It is then shown how the so-calledturnpike property should hold for these deterministic control problems under classical convexity assumptions. These turnpikes have the same generic properties as the attractors obtained via a problem specific approach in FMS flow control models and production planning and are calledhedging points in this literature.This research has been supported by NSERC-Canada, Grants No. A4952 by FCAR-Québec, Grant No. 88EQ3528, Actions Structurantes, MESS-Québec, Grant No. 6.1/7.4(28), and FNRS-Switzerland.     

更新理论推理过程及其应用

更新过程和马尔可夫更新过程中均有相对应的更新方程,实际问题中有许多变量都满足更新方程.但是在运用更新方程时,对于一些感兴趣的变量很难直接套用更新方程,这就使更新方程在实际问题的应用有许多困难.针对这个问题,总结归纳了应用更新方程的更新理论推理过程,给出了具体的推理方法和步骤,并举例进行了说明.     

Distribution of order statistics of waiting times in an ordinary renewal process and the covariance of the renewal increments

The joint distribution of inter–renewal times and the number of renewals is used to derive joint and marginal distributions of order statistics of waiting times of an ordinary renewal process. Also, expressions are obtained for the covariance function of the number of renewals and of the renewal increments in an ordinary renewal counting process in terms of the renewal function     

Delayed renewal process with uncertain interarrival times

Delayed renewal process is a special type of renewal process in which the first interarrival time is quite different from the others. This paper first proposes an uncertain delayed renewal process whose interarrival times are regarded as uncertain variables. Then it gives an uncertainty distribution of delayed renewal process and an elementary delayed renewal theorem.     

Capital renewal as a real option

We consider the timing of replacement of obsolete subsystems within an extensive, complex infrastructure. Such replacement action, known as capital renewal, must balance uncertainty about future profitability against uncertainty about future renewal costs. Treating renewal investments as real options, we derive an optimal solution to the infinite horizon version of this problem and determine the total present value of an institution’s capital renewal options. We investigate the sensitivity of the infinite horizon solution to variations in key problem parameters and highlight the system scenarios in which timely renewal activity is most profitable. For finite horizon renewal planning, we show that our solution performs better than a policy of constant periodic renewals if more than two renewal cycles are completed.     

The Geometric Markov Renewal Processes with Application to Finance

We introduce the geometric Markov renewal processes as a model for a security market and study this processes in a series scheme. We consider its approximations in the form of averaged, merged and double averaged geometric Markov renewal processes. Weak convergence analysis and rates of convergence of ergodic geometric Markov renewal processes are presented. Martingale properties, infinitesimal operators of geometric Markov renewal processes are presented and a Markov renewal equation for expectation is derived. As an application, we consider the case of two ergodic classes. Moreover, we consider a generalized binomial model for a security market induced by a position dependent random map as a special case of a geometric Markov renewal process.     

A class of delayed renewal risk processes with a threshold dividend strategy

This paper considers a class of delayed renewal risk processes with a threshold dividend strategy. The main result is an expression of the Gerber-Shiu expected discounted penalty function in the delayed renewal risk model in terms of the corresponding Cerber-Shiu function in the ordinary renewal model. Subsequently, this relationship is considered in more detail in both the stationary renewal risk model and the ruin probability.     

具有常数利率的延迟更新风险模型

考虑常数利率情形下的延迟更新风险过程．得到了该延迟更新风险模型下的Gerber-Shiu期望折现罚金函数的表达式,并得到了常数利率下的一种特殊的延迟更新风险模型的破产概率的显示表达式.     

On the discounted penalty function in the discrete time stationary renewal risk model

In this paper we consider the discrete time stationary renewal risk model. We express the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function in the stationary renewal risk model in terms of the corresponding Gerber-Shiu function in the ordinary model. In particular, we obtain a defective renewal equation for the probability generating function of ruin time. The solution of the renewal equation is then given. The explicit formulas for the discounted survival distribution of the deficit at ruin are also derived.     

Excess-time Renewal Theory with Applications

In this paper, the renewal theory is investigated from the point of view of the excess-time (non-excess-time) renewal intervals. Useful results are derived, and applications to several renewal models are given.